Using GIS to visualize, analyze and forecast seismic hazards

Serkan Bozkurt

0.60.0bars

-0.6

animation

animation

animation

animation

1992 M=7.3 Landers shock increases stress

at Big Bear

LosAngeles

BigBear

Landers

First 3 hr of Landers

aftershocks

plotted

1992 M=7.3 Landers shock 1992 M=7.3 Landers shock promotes the M=6.5 Big promotes the M=6.5 Big

Bear shock 3 hr laterBear shock 3 hr later

LosAngeles

BigBear

Landers

First 3 hr of Landers

aftershocks

plotted

……and promotes theand promotes the M=7.1 Hector MineM=7.1 Hector Mine shock 7 yr latershock 7 yr later

LosAngeles

Hector Mine

First 7 yr of

aftershocksplotted

New ways to forecast seismic shaking, and how they stack up in Tokyo

Earthquake Probability Investigation of Greater Tokyo

Shinji Toda, Masanobu Shishikura, and Kenji Satake

Ross Stein, Serkan Bozkurt, Bill Bakun, Fred Pollitz,Tom Parsons, Marleen Nyst, and Elliot Grunewald

Yoshimitsu Okada

Junichi Nakajima and Akira Hasegawa

Nobuo Hamada

Martin Bertogg, Mariagiovanna Guatteri, Silvio Tschudi,and Atsuhiro Dodo

Takuya Nishimura and Takeshi Sagiya

Fault model from Wald and Somerville

Fault model from M. Matsu’ura et al.

Our model for the 1923 earthquake is based on newly discovered geodetic data

Fault slip (cm)

But the 1703 earthquake was much larger

Marleen Nyst

Fred Pollitz

from Nyst et al (2005) and Pollitz et al (2005)

Slip direction

Tokyo

Kanto seismic corridor

Historical quakes from Usami (2003) reassessed with powerful computer technique

Elliot Grunewald

Bill Bakun

from Bakun (2005)

and Grunewald (in press 2006)

Ross Stein

Shinji Toda

animation

Picture

30-yr earthquake probabilities for greater Tokyo

Team Tokyo Study Poisson Renewal

M≥7.1 within 50 km of Tokyo 20 >35 (1855 type)

M≥7.9 within 100 km of Tokyo (1923 type) 11 0.5

Combined (I≥6 or PGA>0.95 g in Tokyo) 29% >35%

1

2

1

2

from Stein et al.

(2006)

Tokyo street scene in 1855

Study area is divided in to 5x5 km cells

data forone celldata forone cell

Creating the annual frequency-intensity model

How well the model fits local data

How well the model fits local data

How well the model fits local data

Turning cell data into maps

What about site effects and proximity to fault ruptures?

Residents of Edo appeal to the god Kashima to subdue the catfish, mythical source of the 1855 Ansei-Edo earthquake

GIS is one of the most powerful tools tovisualize, analyze,and enhance earth

science information.

Serkan Bozkurt(USGS, Menlo Park)