7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 1/33

Predictive Analytics, !Choice Architecture!and Bespoke Education

Tristan Denley Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs

Austin Peay State University

denleyt@apsu.eduTwitter: @TDenley

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 2/33

      R     e      p  

     o      r

      t       i     n     g  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             D                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       s          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             h                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             b           

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             o                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       a          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       r                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           d           

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             B                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             I

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             F                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             o          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       r                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        c           

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       s          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           t                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 i                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             n

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             g                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             P                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       r

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      d           

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             i                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             c                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      t                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  i                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   v

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             e                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        l                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   y                                                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           t                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 i                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             c                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        s          

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 3/33

POLLHow do you currently use data on your campus?Where would you place your self on this

spectrum?

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 4/33

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 5/33

CHAT How many choices do students have to make to

navigate your curriculum?Do you think that they have a clear path tograduation?

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 6/33

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 7/33

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 8/33

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 9/33

BANNER

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 10/33

! Global centrality! Major centrality! Grade prediction

What ingredients

go into the ratings

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 11/33

• Predicts grades to within !0.6 of a letter grade on

average• Correctly distinguishes

whether a student will earn

an ABC or DF 92% of the

time

GRADE PREDICTIONS

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 12/33

Five Star Course

!Global centrality

! Major centrality! Grade prediction

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 13/33

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 14/33

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 15/33

COMPLETE COLLEGE

AMERICA

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 16/33

• Grade predictions show similar accuracy in

both university and community college setting at

every level.

•  ABC% in Fall 2012 courses 5.3SD higher 

than Fall 2010 courses campus-wide. •  ABC% in Fall 2012 courses 7.7SD higher 

than Fall 2010 for Pell Grant recipients.

THE DATA SO FAR . . .

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 17/33

Making Advising MORE personal

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 18/33

QUESTIONS

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 19/33

Institutional uses for the data

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 20/33

January

August

Schedule Building is

Critical

Students should take

the courses they need not what’s left over

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 21/33

Early Alert System

Course Transcript

Campus Engagement

Data

Student

Record Data

Predicted Semester

Grades

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 22/33

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Graduates at APSU

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 23/33

WHAT

 ABOUTMAJORS?

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 24/33

DATA

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 25/33

 Fingerprint Courses capture the distinctiveflavour of each major

Predicted Grades

Major

FingerprintGPA 

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 26/33

Semester 1PHYS 2110PHYS 2111MATH 1910

Semester 2PHYS 2120PHYS 2121MATH 1920

Semester 3PHYS 3550MATH 2110CSCI 2000

Semester 4PHYS3005PHYS 3700MATH 3110

Physics Key Classes

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 27/33

Graduates’ Transcript Analysis

Number of F’s on transcript in KEY classes

   P  e

  r  c  e  n   t  a  g  e

  o   f

  g  r  a   d  u  a   t  e  s

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 28/33

 AgricultureBiologyComputer SciHHP

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 29/33

Program DescriptionDegree Map

Successful Courses

Job Cloud

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 30/33

Program DescriptionDegree Map

Successful Courses

Job Cloud

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 31/33

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 32/33

QUESTIONS

7/29/2019 Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Student Success (166286107)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/using-predictive-analytics-to-improve-student-success-166286107 33/33

Tristan Denley Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs

Austin Peay State Universitydenleyt@apsu.eduTwitter: @TDenley