using rdm to manage climate and other uncertainties in epa s … · 2017-08-01 · mwd 2009...

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Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment, Global Change Research Program Photo image area measures 2H x 6.93W and can be masked by a collage strip of one, two or three images. The photo image area is located 3.19from left and 3.81from top of page. Each image used in collage should be reduced or cropped to a maximum of 2high, stroked with a 1.5 pt white frame and positioned edge-to-edge with accompanying images. Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPAs National Water Program: Chesapeake Bay Case Study October 3, 2012 Susan Julius, Thomas Johnson, Chris Weaver (EPA) Rob Lempert and Jordan Fischbach (RAND) The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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Page 1: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment, Global Change Research Program

Photo image area measures 2” H x 6.93” W and can be masked by a

collage strip of one, two or three images.

The photo image area is located 3.19” from left and 3.81” from top of

page.

Each image used in collage should be reduced or cropped to a

maximum of 2” high, stroked with a 1.5 pt white frame and positioned

edge-to-edge with accompanying images.

Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other

Uncertainties in EPA’s National Water Program:

Chesapeake Bay Case Study

October 3, 2012

Susan Julius, Thomas Johnson, Chris Weaver (EPA)

Rob Lempert and Jordan Fischbach (RAND)

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Page 2: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Project Introduction

• Responding to climate change is complicated by its

inherent uncertainty

• Robust Decision Making (RDM) is a new approach that

could be useful to EPA for supporting climate-related

decisions

• We want to evaluate RDM’s ability to contribute toward

these needs through conducting several case studies

• The Patuxent River is a good candidate to examine

stormwater management choices under climate change

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Page 3: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

RDM Is a Quantitative Decision

Framework Useful for Conditions of

Deep Uncertainty

• Climate change confronts decision makers with deep uncertainties

“Deep uncertainty” is when analysts do not know, and/or key parties to the decision do not agree on, the system model, prior probabilities, and/or “cost” functions

• Basic steps include:

– Define key objectives, uncertainties, strategies, and relationships

– Model each of many sets of assumptions to explore performance of strategies

– Identify conditions under which goals are / are not met

– Analyze tradeoffs among strategies and make potential modifications

Robust

Strategies

Case

Generation

Tradeoff Analysis

Decision

Structuring

Scenario Discovery

Conditions

where goals are

and are not met

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Page 4: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

RDM Has Proven Successful for Water

Supply and Flood Control

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Long-term Water Resources Planning Coastal Protection &

Restoration

IEUA Climate

Adaptation

Studies (NSF)

2005 California

Water Plan (NSF) US ACE

Risk Informed

Decision

Framework

Gulf Coast

Fisheries

Study

CO

River

Study

Sierra

Nevada

Climate

Adaptation

Study

(PIER)

2009

California

Water Plan MWD 2009

Integrated

Resource

Plan

Denver

Water

Pilot

Project Louisiana OCPR

Annual Plans &

2012

Master

Plan

Update

New Orleans

Risk

Mitigation

Study

(NOAA)

Port of L.A. &

sea level rise

(NSF)

World Bank

Case Studies:

Mexico City,

Vietnam,

Kosovo

2013

California

Water Plan

Water Resources Foundation

CO Springs Utilities & NYC 4

Page 5: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Will RDM Be Useful for Water Quality

Decisions?

• Will it provide detailed understanding of future conditions where

management strategies will and will not meet water quality goals?

• Will it provide useful information on tradeoffs among alternative

strategies?

• Can a full and systematic identification of risk and a comparison of

options be accomplished using existing data?

• Can this method be used to facilitate structured discussions among

stakeholders to support decision making even in the face of deep

uncertainty?

• Can adaptive strategies be used that may more effectively reduce

deeply uncertain risk by evolving over time in response to new

information?

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Page 6: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Selection Criteria for Case Studies

1. Locations are significantly influenced by climate change

2. Topics and decisions include deeply uncertain factors that

potentially affect EPA’s ability to achieve water quality goals

3. A range of policy options are available to address the

intended goals (e.g., focus on regulatory decisions)

4. Existing models and data are relatively easy to adapt for an

RDM analysis (scenario analyses)

5. Locations are in different parts of the country, with different

types of jurisdictions, different sources of pollution, and

willing participants

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Page 7: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Available Models for Candidate Case

Studies

• RDM analysis runs simulation models many 100’s to 1000’s of

times for each of many different combinations of assumptions

• Case studies thus require existing, calibrated simulation model

– For region of interest

– Built in a modeling environment that supports automatic generation of

multiple runs

• Example options:

Water Quality Storm Water

• BASINS-CAT

• SWAT

• HSPF

• USGS Sparrow

• SWMM

• HSPF (with new BMP

capability)

• Phase V Bay model

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Page 8: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Proposal: Two Cases to Explore

Usefulness of the Approach

Region Sources Climate Jurisdiction

Water quality Mid West Agricultural Precipitation

Temperature

Several states

Storm water Mid Atlantic Urban Extremes One or more

cities

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Page 9: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Stormwater Case Study: Chesapeake Bay

• Priority watershed for EPA

• Supports efforts to comply

with Executive Order and

TMDL

• Significant amount of

modeling activities, data, and

planning

• Synergies with other ongoing

work

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Page 10: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Key Uncertainties and Levers

•Climate change scenarios

• Land use scenarios

•BMPs (e.g., conventional, GI)

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Page 11: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Specific Steps of Analysis

• Run Patuxent version of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Model

• Scope the case study (land use change scenarios,

measures of merit, BMPs to consider)

• Assemble experimental design

• Run automated version of Bay model with full experimental

design

• Complete RDM analysis using the modeling results, with

exact outputs to be determined in consultation with the

Chesapeake Bay Program.

• Disseminate results of pilot to Chesapeake Bay Program

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Page 12: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Scope the Case Study

Uncertainties (X)

• Future temperature and precipitation

• Demographic changes

• Condition of the Bay Delta

• Yields from local resources

• Timeliness of IRP implementation

Policy Levers (L)

• 2010 Integrated Resources Plan Update

– Water use efficiency measures

– Accelerated conservation

– Local supply development

– Stormwater capture

– Large-scale seawater desalination

Relationships (R)

• IRPsim (mass balance planning model)

• Colorado River Decision Simulator

(CORDS)

• WEAP Central Valley Model

Performance Metrics (M)

• Net Balance

• Total Storage

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Example of an ‘xlrm’ framework for Metropolitan Water

District of Southern CA

Page 13: Using RDM to Manage Climate and Other Uncertainties in EPA s … · 2017-08-01 · MWD 2009 Integrated Resource Denver Water Pilot Project Louisiana OCPR Annual Plans & 2012 Master

Ultimately, we hope to determine if this approach will be useful to the Bay

Program for incorporating climate change uncertainty into water quality

decision making.

Thank you!

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