using sound to represent uncertainty in uk climate predictions 2009 data: communication of...
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Using Sound to Represent Uncertainty in UK Climate Predictions 2009 Data:
Communication of Uncertainty
Nick Bearman
Phil JonesAndrew Lovett
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Uncertainty
All data have some uncertaintybut it is often not representedor used in a particularly helpful way
People* generally are not comfortable with the concept of uncertainty
Mobile phones & cancer / carcinogenicity
Nuclear power stations & earthquakes
29 June 2011
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It is something people deal with in their everyday lives:
Travelling (car / train / air)SmokingBettingPensions / investments
whether they are aware of it or not
So everyone can understand it….. in some situations
Uncertainty
29 June 2011
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Uncertainty & UK Climate Predictions
There is uncertainty in future climate predictions
CCIRG91, CCIRG96, UKCIP98, UKCIP02, UKCP09
The first four only provided a single prediction value(for specific time, place, emissions scenario)
UKCP09 provides a range of values
29 June 2011 Temperature Increase
ProbabilityTemperature Increase
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UKCP09 - Uncertainty
Uncertainty is usefulBut users have to change their workflow to make use of it
The users need to be able to understand the data
UKCIP have done a lot of training on this for users of UKCP09
They use the analogy of ‘horse race betting’ to explain how the probabilities work
Which people are familiar with
29 June 2011
2.5 Existing Workflow1.8, 2.0, 2.1, 2.1, 2.5, 2.6, 2.8
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UKCP09 - Projections
UKCP09 data consists of projections of future climateList of probabilities and values
Need to view the value (e.g. temperature) and the probability distribution to fully understand how accurate the temperature prediction is
Large amount of information to showSo calculate a range instead (90th – 10th percentile)
Can do this visuallybut limits on what can be shown
29 June 2011
Temperature Increase
Probability
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Representing Uncertainty
Why sound?Easy – most computers have sound cardsCheap – only need headphones / speakers
Played relevant sound as mouse moved over mapAsked users to highlight areas above specific threshold
Summer mean daily temperature for each cell50th percentile (≈ mean)Range (≈ uncertainty)
Used Google Maps interface for the evaluation
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Results – How does sound help represent uncertainty?
Participants (n = 71) from UEA, OS & UKCIP
Usefulness of sound varied widelySome found it very helpful, some couldn’t stand it
Knowledge of data set important (p < 0.001)
Using sound to reinforce vision increases scores (p = 0.005) for most
Choosing the correct sonification method is crucial for understanding the data
Only general findings, but there is potential to extend this sonification to show more data (e.g. the distribution of the probabilities)or for public engagement
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Thanks to participants
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Visual Saturation
29 June 2011http://kbark.wordpress.com/2006/12/17/where-am-i/ (18/03/2009)
Finnish Town
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Results
Compared users results to the correct resultsGreat variation within results
Cluster C had a very visual learning style
Awareness of data set is important (p < 0.001)
Using sound to reinforce vision increases scores (p = 0.005) for most
Using sound for different variable helps some but not othersLearning Style – Visual learners more effectiveNot significant trends:
Subject knowledge Repeated use