Using the 2010 Midterm Elections to Teach Across the

Curriculum

Using the 2010 Midterm Elections to Teach Across the

Curriculum

Presenter

Gary Copeland

University of Oklahoma

Presenter

Gary Copeland

University of Oklahoma

Why MidtermsWhy Midterms

• Gets student attention

• Politically important

• Important to policy outcomes

• Opportunity to teach across the curriculum

• Opportunity for data exercises

• Gets student attention

• Politically important

• Important to policy outcomes

• Opportunity to teach across the curriculum

• Opportunity for data exercises

OutlineOutline

• Understanding midterms

• Data analysis

• Midterms across the curriculum

• Understanding midterms

• Data analysis

• Midterms across the curriculum

What we knowWhat we know

• President’s party lose seats (usually)

• Became evident in New Deal

• President’s party lose seats (usually)

• Became evident in New Deal

Why seat loss? Why seat loss?

Early research:

Surge and decline

Early research:

Surge and decline

http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/images/voting_rates.jpg

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/2010-04-08-McDonald-Turnout-Rates.png

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/lcg/112chart1-thumb-550x412.jpg

Why does it vary?Why does it vary?

• Amount of surge

• Real world: economy, presidential approval (party support)

• Quality of candidates, financial support

• Amount of surge

• Real world: economy, presidential approval (party support)

• Quality of candidates, financial support

Most predictive models use:Most predictive models use:

• Presidential popularity or generic preference

• Economy

• Seats at risk

• Presidential popularity or generic preference

• Economy

• Seats at risk

Model for 2010 (from Abramowitz)Model for 2010 (from Abramowitz)

Dependent variable is Republican seat change

prevrseats = number of seats held by Republicansmidterm = -1 for a democratic presidentgendiff = generic ballot (R - D)presapp = net presidential approval (disapprove- approve)

Rep Gain = 81.441 -.349(178) – 19.158(-1) + 1.252(0) +.220(-1)

= 38.257

= 81.441 – 62.122 + 19.158 = 38.477

(w/o generic ballot and pres approval)

Current numbers for generic ballot and presidential approval:

Generic = tied

Approval = 47

Disapproval = 46

Data Analysis

Is there still a midterm loss?Is there still a midterm loss?

Does the term matter?Does the term matter?

Is it the same for both parties?Is it the same for both parties?

Ties to other parts of the curriculum

Incumbency advantageIncumbency advantage

• Reconcile with “incumbents don’t lose”

• Does this provide electoral accountability for the Congress?

• Reconcile with “incumbents don’t lose”

• Does this provide electoral accountability for the Congress?

Voter Decision-makingVoter Decision-making

• Importance of information to moving voters from party

• Importance of campaigns for providing “information”

• Differences between presidency and Congress, Senate and House

• Importance of information to moving voters from party

• Importance of campaigns for providing “information”

• Differences between presidency and Congress, Senate and House

Importance of turnoutImportance of turnout

• Who votes does matter? (Surge brings different people to voting booths)

• Who votes does matter? (Surge brings different people to voting booths)

Centrality of presidentCentrality of president

• Influences surge

• Voters often react (punish MCs) for presidential performance

• Influences surge

• Voters often react (punish MCs) for presidential performance

Why members care so much about moneyWhy members care so much about money

• Scare off challengers

• Wage a vigorous campaign

• Scare off challengers

• Wage a vigorous campaign

Increasing importance of primariesIncreasing importance of primaries

• A number of incumbents have lost in primary elections

• Role in pushing parties towards extremes

• A number of incumbents have lost in primary elections

• Role in pushing parties towards extremes

Resources