us/russia cooperation in missile defense: opportunities...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities ...ceness-russia.org/data/page/p415_2.pdf · US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051009/5a789e3c7f8b9ae91b8cf0ab/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20101
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Uzi Rubin
Based on open source material. Copyright Rubincon Ltd
Presentation to the Moscow Non Proliferation Conference 2010
• Levels of potential Cooperation.
• US and Russian MD assets.
• Technological and operational challenges.
• Conclusions.
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20102
Potential Levels of Cooperation between US and Russian MD Assets
1. Joint defense of deployed peace keeping forces: Joint overseas deployment of Theater Missile Defense
systems to protect peace keeping forces.
2. Joint defense of adjacent regions : Coordinated deployment of Theater and National Missile
Defense systems to protect a region against external missile.
3. Joint defense of the national homeland territories of both parties. Use of National Missile Defense systems for mutual
protection of each other’s homeland territories against
missile threats from diverse sources.
This presentation focuses on the technical and operational aspects of the issue,not on the political ones
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20103
The World As We Know It
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20104
The World With Lost Continents Added…
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20105
Level 1 Cooperation
![Page 6: US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities ...ceness-russia.org/data/page/p415_2.pdf · US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051009/5a789e3c7f8b9ae91b8cf0ab/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20106
Level 2 Cooperation
![Page 7: US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities ...ceness-russia.org/data/page/p415_2.pdf · US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051009/5a789e3c7f8b9ae91b8cf0ab/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20107
Level 3 Cooperation – Russian MD Supporting US Homeland Defense
![Page 8: US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities ...ceness-russia.org/data/page/p415_2.pdf · US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051009/5a789e3c7f8b9ae91b8cf0ab/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20108
Level 3 Cooperation – US MD Supporting Russian Homeland Defense
![Page 9: US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities ...ceness-russia.org/data/page/p415_2.pdf · US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051009/5a789e3c7f8b9ae91b8cf0ab/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20109
US/Russia MD Assets
Theater Missile Defense Systems
• Tactical area defense Interceptor speeds 2 – 3 Km/Sec.
Defense of Ten Thousand to Hundred Thousand Square Km areas.
• Deployable/Mobile.
• Mostly multirole (Air/Missile Defense):
US land based: Patriot PAC 3 (Future MEADS), Thaad
US sea based: AEGIS/SM2 + SM3 Block I
Russia land based: S – 300/400
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201010
US Land Based TMD Systems: Patriot PAC 3/ MEADS
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201011
US Land Based TMD Systems: THAAD
![Page 12: US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities ...ceness-russia.org/data/page/p415_2.pdf · US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051009/5a789e3c7f8b9ae91b8cf0ab/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201012
US Land Based TMD Systems: THAAD
![Page 13: US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities ...ceness-russia.org/data/page/p415_2.pdf · US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051009/5a789e3c7f8b9ae91b8cf0ab/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201013
Russia Land Based TMD Systems: S300/S400
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201014
Russia’s Land Based TMD Systems: S300/S400
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201015
US Sea Based TMD Systems: AEGIS/Standard Missile 3 Block I
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201016
Level 1 Cooperation - Technological Challenges
• In spite of the asymmetry in sea based TMD assets, Level 1 cooperation (Providing joint missile defense of deployed peace keeping forces) is feasible with the ground based assets of both countries.
• Due to short timelines, best results require integrated tactical defense hence real time synchronization of the disparate system’s operations. This will require the
systems of both countries to be interoperable with each other (i.e. operate as a single System of Systems)
• Assuming that Russia’s systems use modern computerized systems with advanced
operating software systems, interoperability is ultimately feasible.
• This in turn will require in turn high level of transparency about the technicalparameters of both side’s systems.
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201017
Level 1 Cooperation - Operational Challenges
• Joint operations would require the establishment of
A mutually agreed command structure.
A harmonized set of Rules of Engagement.
• These issues might be more complicated to resolve than the technical challenges.
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201018
US/Russia MD Assets
Strategic MD Systems
• Strategic area defense (Large regions, entire continents)
Interceptor speeds 4 – 7 Km/Sec.
Defense of millions square Km. areas.
• Fixed/Relocateable. .
• Single Role (Missile Defense):
US land based: GMDS, “AEGIS Ashore” with SM3 Block II A, ditto
with Block IIB
Russia land based: S – 500
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201019
US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: Ground Based Midcourse Defense System (GMDS)
6+ Km/sec
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201020
GMDS Footprint
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201021
US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile 3 Block IIA and Block IIB
4 Km/sec 6 Km/sec ?
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201022
AEGIS/SM3 Footprints
Courtesy Dean Wilkening, Stanford U. CISAC
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201023
No Image Available
5-5.5 Km/Sec
Russia Land Based Strategic Missile Defense System: S500
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201024
Level 2 and 3 Cooperation - Technological Challenges
• Both countries might have the assets for Level 2 and 3 cooperation (Regional and mutual homeland defense) – provided that the S-500 system materializes.
• Due to the longer timelines of Regional/Continental range missiles, close interoperability between systems may not be mandatory.
• Data links for mutual early warning and shared sky picture will be required.
• Assuming that Russia’s systems use modern computerized systems with advancedoperating software systems, these requirements can be met.
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201025
Levels 2 and 3 Cooperation - Operational Challenges
• Joint regional defense/Mutual homeland defense will require a mutually acceptable rules of engagement.
• This might be more complicated to resolve than the technical challenges.
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201026
Example: US East Coast defense Against Mideast ICBM
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201027
US Phase Adaptive plan, Phase IV - 2020 ( US only)Candidate interceptors: SM3 Blk IIB or 2 stg. GBI
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201028
US Phase Adaptive plan, Phase IV - 2020 ( US/Russia)Candidate interceptor: S-300
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201029
Some Generic Challenges of Joint Missile Defense
• Some regulatory challenges: National security: Confidentiality of system/component performance,
operational requirements and operational procedures. Proliferation controls: Transfer of information must be compliant with
national legislation and regulations. Proprietary information: confidentiality and commercial rights in proprietary
information.
• Some technical/managerial challenges: Language: Communications and documents. R&D procedures: Design criteria, design reviews, data books, level of testing
etc. Dimensions: Metric, US. Voltage: European, US. Software: Operating systems, applications.
The regulatory challenges are dominant.Once solved, the technical/managerial challenges will be overcome in short order.
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201030
Summary
• Generally speaking, the MD assets of the US and Russia are compatible with level 1 cooperation provided that technological and operational interfaces are perfected.
• Joint operation on level 2 and in particular level 3 are conditioned on Russia’s
plans for deploying a regional/continental capability MD system.
• The major challenges to the prospects of cooperation are political. Regulatory challenges are secondary but formidable.
• Technological and operational challenges are tertiary and will be resolved in short order pending resolution of political and regulatory challenges.