utah economic profile 2008
DESCRIPTION
Utah Economic Profile as of September 2008, presented by Utah Economist, Mark Knold.TRANSCRIPT
Utah Planned Giving
September, 2008
Mark Knold
Chief Economist
Utah Department of Workforce Services
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
90 95 00
Year-Over Percent Change
In Non-farm Jobs
05
Utah
U.S.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08
Utah Unemployment Rate1973 – 2008
Percent
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: August 2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals1994 – 2007
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; Nov. 2007.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137
Trendline
Dwelling Units
$1,000
$51,000
$101,000
$151,000
$201,000
$251,000
$301,000
$351,000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Utah Nonresidential Construction Valuation1994 – 2007
(thousands of $)
Micron
LDS Conference Center IHC Hospital
Grand America Hotel
Trendline
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; Nov. 2007.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137
WHY?
Reasons
Long Term Short Term
Change in the U.S. Economy
Change in the U.S. Labor Force
Utah Demographics
Reasons
Long Term Short Term
Change in the U.S. Economy
Change in the U.S. Labor Force
Utah Demographics
Percent Change in Population for States : 2006 to 2007U.S. Rate = 1.0%
Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country
< 0.9Source: U.S Census Bureau
NM1.5
UT2.4
AZ3.6
CA0.8
NV3.5
OR1.7
TX2.5
OK1.0
CO1.9
WA1.7
ID2.6
MT1.1
WY1.2
ND0.2
SD0.9
MN0.8
NE0.6
KS0.6
IA0.6
MO0.8
AR1.3
LA-4.9
WI0.5
IL0.5
IN0.8
OH0.1
FL 1.8
TN 1.4
KY0.8
MS0.1
AL1.1
GA2.5
SC
1.7
NC 2.1
VA1.0
WV0.2
PA0.3
NY0.0
ME0.3
AK1.0
HI1.0
MA0.1
VT0.2
NH0.6
RI-0.6
CT0.1
NJ0.2
DE1.4
MD0.5
MI-0.1
1.5 to 1.9
0.9 to 1.4 (At or Above the U.S. Rate)
2.0 or more (More than Double the U.S. Rate)
Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006U.S. Rate = 20.4%
Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country
< 10%Source: U.S Census Bureau
NM
UT
AZ
CA
NV
OR
TX
OK
CO
WA
ID
MT
WY
ND
SD
MN
NE
KS
IA
MO
AR
LA
WI
IL IN OH
FL
TN
KY
MS AL GA
SC
NC
VAWV
PA
NY
ME
AK
HI
MAVT
NH
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
MI
20% to <40%
10% to <20%
> 40%
The United States PopulationIs Sparse in the Mountain Region
< 3 millionSource: U.S Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey
NM
UT
AZ
CA
NV
OR
TX
OK
CO
WA
ID
MT
WY
ND
SD
MN
NE
KS
IA
MO
AR
LA
WI
IL IN OH
FL
TN
KY
MS AL GASC
NC
VAWV
PA
NY
ME
AK
HI
MAVT
NH
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
MI
6 to <15 million
3 to <6 million
> 15 million
Industrial Revolution 1830-
After the 1950s
After the 1950s
After the 1950s
After the 1950s
Washington County Population
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: Population Data, http://governor.utah.gov/dea/
Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006U.S. Rate = 20.4%
Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country
< 10%Source: U.S Census Bureau
NM
UT
AZ
CA
NV
OR
TX
OK
CO
WA
ID
MT
WY
ND
SD
MN
NE
KS
IA
MO
AR
LA
WI
IL IN OH
FL
TN
KY
MS AL GA
SC
NC
VAWV
PA
NY
ME
AK
HI
MAVT
NH
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
MI
20% to <40%
10% to <20%
> 40%
Percent Change in Employment for States : 1990 to 2006U.S. Rate = 24.4%
Employment Growth is StrongestIn the Rocky Mountain Region
0% to <20%Source: U.S Census Bureau
NM
UT
AZ
CA
NV
OR
TX
OK
CO
WA
ID
MT
WY
ND
SD
MN
NE
KS
IA
MO
AR
LA
WI
IL IN OH
FL
TN
KY
MS AL GA
SC
NC
VAWV
PA
NY
ME
AK
HI
MAVT
NH
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
MI
30% to <40%
20% to <30%
> 40%
Reasons
Long Term Short Term
Change in the U.S. Economy
Change in the U.S. Labor Force
Utah Demographics
California State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Oregon State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Washington State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Colorado State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Arizona State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Utah State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Nevada State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Idaho State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Montana State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Texas State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1960
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1970
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1990
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2000
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
Labor Vacuum
U.S. Unemployment Rate = 5.5% Employment Growth Rate = 1.6%
Unemployment was HigherJuly 1990
Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM6.8
UT4.4
AZ5.4
CA5.6
NV5.1
OR5.5
TX6.3
OK5.4
CO5.1
WA5.0
ID5.5
MT6.0
WY4.9
ND4.2
SD3.8
MN4.8
NE2.4
KS4.3
IA4.5
MO5.7
AR6.7
LA5.6
WI4.3
IL6.3
IN4.8
OH5.7
FL6.2
TN 5.5
KY5.9
MS7.4
AL6.2
GA5.2
SC
4.9
NC 4.1
VA4.4
WV8.5
PA5.4
NY5.2
ME5.2
AK6.9
HI2.4
MA6.4
VT4.7
NH5.7
RI6.2
CT4.9
NJ5.0
DE3.3
MD5.1
MI7.5
5.0% and Over
Below 5.0%
Unemployment Rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate = 4.5% Employment Growth Rate = 1.3%
Unemployment is LowEven With a Sluggish U.S. Economy
July 2007
Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM3.7
UT2.7
AZ3.7
CA5.3
NV4.9
OR5.5
TX4.4
OK5.0
CO3.8
WA4.9
ID2.3
MT2.7
WY3.7
ND3.1
SD3.0
MN4.6
NE3.2
KS4.6
IA3.9
MO4.9
AR5.5
LA3.9
WI5.0
IL5.2
IN4.6
OH5.8
FL 3.9
TN 4.1
KY5.7
MS6.7
AL3.7
GA4.6
SC
5.9
NC 5.0
VA3.1
WV4.8
PA4.3
NY4.9
ME4.8
AK6.1
HI2.6
MA5.1
VT4.1
NH3.9
RI5.0
CT4.5
NJ4.6
DE3.4
MD4.0
MI7.2
5.0% and Over
Below 5.0%
Unemployment Rate
Reasons
Long Term Short Term
Change in the U.S. Economy
Change in the U.S. Labor Force
Utah Demographics
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1960
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1960
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
FemaleMale
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1970
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1970
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
FemaleMale
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1980
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1990
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1990
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
140,000 90,000 40,000 10,000 60,000 110,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2000
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2000
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
140,000 90,000 40,000 10,000 60,000 110,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005
Millions
Baby Boom Generation
Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers
Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers
150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population
FemaleMale
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005
FemaleMale
U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005
Millions
Dominating the Labor Force
Worker Vacuum
Worker Vacuum
Utah Employment (seasonally adjusted)
1,020
1,070
1,120
1,170
1,220
1,270
00 01 02 03
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; September 2007
04 05 06 07
Employment
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%UtahUS
Year-Over Percent Change
In Non-farm Jobs
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Net Domestic Migration2000 - 2005
Over 100,000 Net In Migration
Source: U.S Census Bureau
9,527
-33,822
408,160
-64,460
270,946
77,821
218,722
-15,418
47,740
80,974
61,273
18,933
1,771
-18,568
-735
-16,768
-26,206
-57,763
-41,140
26,979
35,664
-89,547
14,595
-391,031 -17,000
-177,150
1,057,619
109,707
32,169
-10,57810,521 232,666
115,084
232,448
103,52110,518
-28,012
-1,001,100
36,804
-4,619
-13,112
-236,4153,530
40,861
-34,273
-194,901
27,912
9,752
-165,084
0 to 20,000 Net In Migration
20,000 to 100,000 Net In Migration
Net Out Migration
Net Migration – Domestic and International2000 - 2005
Over 100,000 Net In Migration
Source: U.S Census Bureau
37,501
16,173
576,238
751,419
337,043
150,084
881,883
21,128
159,957
215,216
75,795
21,074
4,035
-14,881
3,222
54,032
-4,007
-19,541
-11,754
69,669
57,611
-69,373
60,701
-63,011 38,656
-102,008
1,585,704
159,680
59,604
7536,457 425,510
151,485
390,672
243,49814,209
74,458
-334,093
41,808
1,181
16,956
-73,7417,889
51,968
41,718
95,293
118,724
-42,183
0 to 20,000 Net In Migration
20,000 to 100,000 Net In Migration
Net Out Migration
State of Utah Components of Population Change
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
Per
son
s
Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Change
Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
Reasons
Long Term Short Term
Change in the U.S. Economy
Change in the U.S. Labor Force
Utah Demographics
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%UtahUS
Year-Over Percent Change
In Non-farm Jobs
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
UtahUS
Year-Over Percent Change
In Non-farm Jobs
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals1995 – 2006
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; April 2008.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137
Trendline
Dwelling Units
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, April 2008
Overall
Housing-Related
Utah Percentage Employment ChangeOverall – Housing-Related
01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Price + Mortgage Rate = Monthly Payment (Affordability)
Subprime LendingLoans that do not meet Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines. Can reflect less than ideal credit.
Alt-A LendingLoans that do not meet Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines. Used by not-owner-occupied.
UnsecuritizedLoans on real estate packaged and sold not regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission. Also, loans over the Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guarantee.
Agency LoansMulti-family financing.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals1995 – 2008
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; August 2008.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137
Trendline
Dwelling Units
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, August 2008
Overall
Housing-Related
Utah Percentage Employment ChangeOverall – Housing-Related
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
500
3,900
-800
2,400
6,500
400
3,800
-200
-12,800
3,200
200
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Education and Health
Government
Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change)July 2007 – 2008
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Prof., and Business
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Utah Housing Price Appreciation
Across Selected Metropolitan Areas
Last Five Years
Salt Lake City 58%
Provo-Orem 51%
Ogden-Clearfield 41%
Logan 33%
St. George 73%
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
22%
21%
18%
16%
26%
Wage Appreciation
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
$1,000
$51,000
$101,000
$151,000
$201,000
$251,000
$301,000
$351,000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Utah Nonresidential Construction Valuation1995 – 2008
(thousands of $)
LDS Conference Center
IHC Hospital
Grand America Hotel
Trendline
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; August 2008.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137
City Creek
Utah State Employment Growth Rates1950 – 2010f
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1960 1970 1980 19901950
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: August 2008 f = forecast
2000
3.3% average since 1960
2010
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
90 95 00
Year-Over Percent Change
In Non-farm Jobs
05