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Management of endometrial abnormalities in postmenopausal women, an individualizedapproach
Breijer, M.C.
Link to publication
Citation for published version (APA):Breijer, M. C. (2013). Management of endometrial abnormalities in postmenopausal women, an individualizedapproach.
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Download date: 03 Jun 2020
8|The capacity of endometrial thickness measurement to diagnose endometrial carcinoma in asymptomatic postmenopausal women: a systematic review and meta analysis
M.C. BreijerJ.A.H. PeetersB.C. OpmeerT.J. Justin ClarkR.H.M. VerheijenB.W.J. MolA. Timmermans
Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol. 2012 ; 40: 621-629.
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AbSTRACT
Objectives: Measurement of endometrial thickness is an important tool in the assessment of women with postmenopausal bleeding. The place of endometrial thickness measurement by ultrasound in asymptomatic women is unclear. The aims of this study were to address: (I) the normal endometrial thickness measured with ultrasonography, (II) the prevalence of serious endometrial pathology and (III) the sensitivity and specificity of endometrial thickness measurement by transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) for diagnosing premalignant and malignant endometrial disease in asymptomatic postmenopausal women.
Methods: A MEDLINE and EMBASE search (from inception to January 2011) was performed. Articles reporting on endometrial thickness measurement in the diagnosis of endometrial carcinoma and atypical hyperplasia in asymptomatic postmenopausal women without HRT were selected. Endometrial thickness and the prevalence of endometrial (pre-)malignancies were recorded. If possible, 2x2 tables were extracted.
Results: We included 32 studies reporting on 11,100 women to answer our three objectives: (I) The estimated mean endometrial thickness was 2.9 mm (95% CI 2.6-3.3). (II) The pooled estimated prevalence of endometrial carcinoma and atypical endometrial hyperplasia were 0.62% (95% CI 0.42-0.82), and 0.59% (95% CI 0.22-0.96), respectively. (III) Summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity of TVS endometrial thickness measurement were 0.83 (95% CI 0.19-1.00) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.32-0.93) for 5 mm cut-off and 0.33 (95% CI 0.04 -0.85) and 0.94 (95% CI 0.92-0.96) for 6 mm cut-off.
Conclusions: The results from this review do not justify the use of endometrial thickness as a screening test for endometrial carcinoma and atypical hyperplasia in asymptomatic postmenopausal women not using HRT.
Endometrial thickness measurement in asymptomati c postmenopausal women
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8
InTRODuCTIOn
Endometrial carcinoma is the most common malignancy of the female genital tract in the developed countries and presents itself with postmenopausal bleeding in more than 95% of cases.1, 2 In pati ents with postmenopausal bleeding, sonographic measurement of endometrial thickness (ET) is, the fi rst test to determine whether further investi gati ons are needed to rule out malignancy.3 Guidelines recommend a cut-off value of 4 or 5 mm by transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS), below which endometrial cancer is unlikely.4-7 When the endometrial thickness is below this cut-off , the probability of endometrial carcinoma is below 1%.3 In contrast with the clear guidelines on the management of women with postmenopausal bleeding, clinicians are faced with uncertainty when endometrial thickness is measured in asymptomati c postmenopausal women. Symptom free women may undergo TVS for other indicati ons, such as vaginal prolapse or abdominal complaints. Inevitably, the endometrium is then visualized and incidentally a thickened endometrium may be observed. It is unknown how to manage such an incidentally observed thick endometrium.Based on a decision analysis in a theoreti cal cohort, Smith-Bindman et al concluded that in asymptomati c postmenopausal women with an ET of 11 mm or thicker an endometrial biopsy should be performed.8 They argued that women with an endometrial thickness above this threshold have a malignancy risk of 6.7% which is comparable to the risk in pati ents with postmenopausal bleeding and an ET larger than 5 mm (7.3%), the latt er being the widely accepted threshold to perform a biopsy in symptomati c pati ents. Apart from this debate on the accuracy of endometrial thickness measurement in asymptomati c postmenopausal women, its potenti al value also depends on the prevalence of the disease searched for, i.e. endometrial thickness and or its precursors. Since in asymptomati c women the prevalence of endometrial carcinoma is lower than in symptomati c women, the cut-off of endometrial thickness for abnormality in these women should be higher. To address the above menti oned dilemmas, we reviewed the literature on asymptomati c postmenopausal women not using hormone replacement therapy (HRT). The aims of this review were: to address in asymptomati c postmenopausal women: (1) normal endometrial thickness measured with ultrasonography, (2) the prevalence of serious endometrial pathology and (3) the sensiti vity and specifi city of endometrial thickness measurement by TVS for diagnosing premalignant and malignant endometrial disease.
METHODS
Identi fi cati on of studies
We performed an electronic search in January 2011 in MEDLINE (from 1948) and EMBASE (from 1980) to identi fy arti cles reporti ng on endometrial thickness and/or endometrial
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carcinoma and hyperplasia in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. We used the following keywords: postmenopausal, asymptomatic, screening, endometrial, thickness, ultrasound, hyperplasia and carcinoma. The complete search syntax is reported in appendix 1. Language restrictions were not applied. Abstracts or articles written in languages other than English were read by a member of the team with sufficient knowledge of the language, if there was no team member available, the article was translated by a native speaker. References and cross references of selected studies were searched for articles not identified by the electronic searches. No review protocol was registered.
Selection of studies and data abstraction
Two independent reviewers (MB, JP) screened the electronic search results by reading titles and / or abstracts. Studies that were restricted to patients with postmenopausal bleeding or women using HRT or Tamoxifen were excluded. Titles and abstracts were assessed to identify eligible studies. Subsequently, these articles were evaluated in full text for each of the three objectives independently for the final study selection. Any disagreements were resolved by consensus. In case of persistent disagreement, the judgment of a third reviewer (AT) was decisive.If multiple publications reported analyses on the same dataset, only the largest study was included. If a dataset was split into different subgroups and the subgroups were reported separately in multiple publications, we combined the results of these publications. We used the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS)9 checklist to assess the methodological quality of included studies (Appendix 2).
Endometrial thicknessTo evaluate normal endometrial thickness in asymptomatic postmenopausal, we searched for studies that (1) reported a mean endometrial thickness with a measure of variance and (2) described a standardized approach to measurement of endometrial thickness by TVS. Mean endometrial thickness as well as standard deviation, standard error or 95% confidence intervals were recorded for each included study. A pooled estimate of mean endometrial thickness was then calculated using inverse variance weighting in a random effects model.
Prevalence of endometrial (pre-) malignancies To assess the prevalence of (pre-) malignant lesions of the endometrium in asymptomatic postmenopausal women, we included studies that reported on any form of endometrial verification on the total population of asymptomatic postmenopausal women without HRT. The endometrium could be assessed with histology (hysterectomy, dilatation and curettage (D&C), hysteroscopy with biopsy, endometrial biopsy) or with cytology. Studies that performed partial verification (histological verification only in a subgroup based on a
Endometrial thickness measurement in asymptomati c postmenopausal women
99
8
previous test e.g. ET above a cut-off level or progesterone challenge test positi ve pati ents) were excluded. The method of verifi cati on, the number of women with atypical endometrial hyperplasia and the number of women with endometrial carcinoma was recorded for each selected study. The prevalence of endometrial carcinoma and atypical endometrial hyperplasia was then calculated for each study, and a weighted pooled esti mate was derived.
Diagnosti c accuracy of endometrial thickness for endometrial (pre-) malignancyFinally, to esti mate the diagnosti c accuracy of endometrial thickness for (pre)malignancy of the endometrium, we selected studies that reported on both endometrial thickness measurement and endometrial histological verifi cati on in asymptomati c postmenopausal women. Informati on required to construct a two-by-two table for each reported endometrial thickness cut-off value was recorded for each selected study. Three diff erent outcomes were considered: benign (including atrophy, endometrial polyps, and endometrial hyperplasia without atypia), atypical endometrial hyperplasia, and endometrial carcinoma.The data from the two-by-two tables were used to calculate sensiti vity and specifi city, as well as positi ve and negati ve predicti ve values for each study. If the study reported on multi ple thresholds, we included two-by-two tables for all reported thresholds. Subsequently, summary point esti mates for sensiti vity and specifi city were generated for each reported endometrial cut-off value using a bivariate random eff ects approach10, for endometrial carcinoma, atypical endometrial hyperplasia, and these two diagnoses combined in one group.
RESulTS
Search strategy
Our search resulted in 503 citati ons; another 31 studies were identi fi ed through reference search. There were 95 studies eligible for inclusion based on ti tle and abstract. Aft er assessment of the full text arti cles, 63 studies were discarded as there were no separate data for asymptomati c pati ents (N = 7), non HRT using pati ents or no clear informati on on HRT use (N = 29), postmenopausal pati ents (N = 3), being a review or editorial (N = 4), endometrial thickness reported in subgroups only (N = 4), no mean endometrial thickness or measure for variance reported (N = 12), or having multi ple publicati ons on the same dataset (N = 4) (Figure 1). As a result, a set of 32 relevant studies was available to answer our three questi ons: 10 studies could be used for questi on 1 (esti mati ng normal endometrial thickness); 15 studies could be used for questi on 2 (prevalence of endometrial malignancy and pre-malignancy) and 20 studies could be used for questi on 3 (diagnosti c accuracy of TVS for these endometrial diseases).
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Retrieved from searches:electronic search ( n = 503)cross-reference search ( n = 31)
Excluded after reading:titles ( n = 289)abstracts ( n = 150)
Retrieved in full ( n = 95)
Studies available to answerdifferent questions ( n = 32)
Excluded after reading article:No separate data for:
Asymptomatic women ( n = 7)Women not using HRT ( n = 17)Postmenopausal women (n = 3)
No information regarding HRT use (n = 12)Review / editorial (n = 4)Endometrial thickness reported for subgroups only ( n = 4)No mean endometrial thickness or measure for variance
reported (n = 12)Multiple publications on the same dataset (n = 4)
Studies included forendometrial thickness(n = 10)
Studies included fordiagnostic accuracy(n = 20)
Studies included forhistological verification(n = 15)
Figure 1. Flow chart of studies included in the meta-analysis. HRT, hormone replacement therapy.
Assessment of methodological qualityStudy quality was considered generally good when eight of the 14 QUADAS items were met by over 70% of the included studies (Figure 2).
0%
Patientspectrum
Selectioncriteria
Referencestandard
Timeinterval
Partialverification
Differentialverification
Incorporation
Indextextdetails
Referencestandarddetails
Reviewbias(index)
Reviewbias(reference)
Clinicaldata
Uninterpretableresults
Withdrawals
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Figure 2. Summary of evaluation of the 32 studies analyzed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS) checklist. See appendix S2 for the 14 questions summarized as labels on the X-axis.
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8
Studies scored poor on the items regarding blinded interpretati on of the reference test and descripti on of withdrawals. In 5 of the 32 studies, almost the enti re QUADAS checklist was scored as not applicable because e.g. no endometrial thickness measurement (index test) was reported or no endometrial verifi cati on (reference test) was reported. Absence of the index or reference test, automati cally led to problems in completi ng the QUADAS checklist. For these fi ve studies it was impossible to answer some questi ons of the QUADAS checklist with ‘yes’, ‘no’ or ‘unclear’ and these items were scored ‘not applicable’.
Endometrial thicknessWe found ten studies that reported on endometrial thickness measurement with a measure of variance in asymptomati c women without HRT.11-20 The 10 studies that were assessed for inclusion had been conducted in nine diff erent countries. One study was published in German; the other nine were published in English. In total, these 10 studies reported on 3,049 women, with a median sample size of 207 (range 97 to 1182). Mean endometrial thickness in the 10 studies varied from 2.1 mm to 5.7 mm. The pooled esti mate of the mean endometrial thickness was 3.2 mm (95% CI 2.8-3.6). There was one outlier, with a mean endometrial thickness of 5.7 mm, compared to the other studies; Güven et al reported a thicker endometrium.13 Mean BMI in this study was 29.5 kg/m2. In contrast, mean BMI in the other included studies ranged between 22.4 and 25.6 kg/m2. The purpose of the study by Güven et al was to correlate BMI to endometrial thickness, this potenti ally could have lead to inclusion bias. We therefore excluded this study from the meta-analysis for endometrial thickness. The remaining nine studies reported on 2952 women with a median sample size of 259 (Table 1). The pooled esti mate of the mean endometrial thickness was 2.9 mm (95% CI 2.6 -3.3) (Figure 3). Stati sti cal heterogeneity between studies (I2) was 28%.
Table 1. Characteristi cs of studies included in meta-analysis for mean endometrial thickness measured by transvaginal ultrasound in asymptomati c postmenopausal women without hormone replacement therapy.
Endometrial thickness (mm)
Reference Year Country n Mean SD Range
Andolf11 1993 Sweden 300 2.30 1.8 0-10
Gull12 1996 Sweden 361 3.00 0.1† 1-28
Kasraeian14 2011 Iran 259 3.83 2.95 1-25
Malinova15 1996 Bulgaria 130 3.86 2.35 NR
Minagawa16 2005 Japan 146 2.80 2.2 0.2-14.1
Neele17 2000 The Netherlands 148 3.40 1.7 0.9-12.8
Osmers18 1989 Germany 155 3.40 7.9 1-63
Pirhonen19 1992 Finland 271 2.20 0.77 NR
Warming20 2002 Denmark 1182 2.10 1.4 NR†standard error. NR, not reported
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Andolf 11
Firstauthor
Gull 12
Kasraeian 14
Malinova 15
Minagawa 16
Neele17
Osmers 18
Warming 20
Pirhonen 19
Summary
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Endometrialthickness(mm)
4.0 4.5
Figure 3. Forest plot of the meta analysis for mean endometrial thickness.
Prevalence of endometrial (pre-) malignancies
In 28 studies, a histological diagnosis of the endometrium (endometrial verification) was obtained. We excluded 13 studies from further analysis, as they had only partial endometrial verification (verification in a subgroup of patients selected by a previous test e.g. endometrial thickness or progesterone challenge test). The 15 remaining studies were performed in nine different countries.13, 14, 21-33 Thirteen studies were published in English, one in Portuguese and one in Italian. Together, these studies described a total of 3,595 women. Characteristics of these studies are reported in Table 2. The median sample size was 145 (range 30 to 883). The prevalence of endometrial carcinoma varied between 0% and 2.1%, the prevalence of atypical endometrial hyperplasia varied between 0% and 3.5%, and the prevalence of combined (pre-) malignancy varied between 0% and 4.3%. The pooled estimated prevalence of endometrial carcinoma was 0.62% (95% CI 0.42-0.82) of endometrial hyperplasia was 0.59% (95% CI 0.22-0.96) and of combined (pre-) malignancies 1.21% (95% CI 0.63-1.79).
Diagnostic accuracy of endometrial thickness for endometrial (pre-) malignancy
There were 20 studies that reported on the endometrial thickness cut-off value and histological or cytological endometrial verification.11-16, 23, 26, 29, 31, 32, 34-42 These studies were performed in 13 different countries. Sixteen studies were published in English, one in Italian, one in Spanish, one in Portuguese, and one in German.
Endometrial thickness measurement in asymptomati c postmenopausal women
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8
Table 2. Characteristi cs of studies included in meta analysis for assessment of prevalence of endometrial (pre)malignancies in asymptomati c postmenopausal women not using hormone replacement therapy.
Endometrial carcinoma
AEH
Author Year Country nVerifi cati on method
nPrevalence
(%)n
Prevalence (%)
Prevalence of (pre-) malignancy (%)
Bortolett o21 1997 Brazil 150 EBNS 0 0 1 0.67 0.67
Buccoliero22 2003 Italy 107Hysterectomy, EBN, EES
0 0 0 0 0
Cohen23 1999 USA 60 EBP 0 0 0 0 0
Elewa24 2001 Egypt 30 Hyst + biopsy 0 0 0 0 0
Gol25 2001 Turkey 556 D&C 3 0.54 3 0.54 1.1
Gouveia26 2007 Brazil 47 EBP 1 2.1 1 2.1 4.3
Güven13 2003 Turkey 97 D&C 0 0 0 0 0
Kasraeian14 2011 Iran 259 Hyst + biopsy 1 0.39 9 3.5 3.9
Langer27 1997 USA 145 EBNS 1 0.69 0 0 0.69
Macia28 1993 Spain 130 EBS 0 0 1 0.77 0.77
Marello29 2000 Italy 328 Hyst + biopsy 1 0.30 NR NR NR
Marti nez-Rubio30 2003 Spain 369 EBP 3 0.81 0 0 0.81
Paraskevaidis31 2002 Greece 59 EBK 1 1.7 1 1.7 3.4
Tsuda32 1997 Japan 375 EES, EBNS 1 0.21 NR NR NR
Tsuda33 2005 Japan 883 SC 8 0.91 1 0.11 1.0
EC, endometrial carcinoma; AEH, atypical endometrial hyperplasia; NA, not applicable; NR, not reported.Endometrial verifi cati on methods: EB NS, endometrial biopsy not specifi ed; EB N, endometrial biopsy, Novak curett e; EES, endocyte endometrial sampler; EB P, endometrial biopsy, Pipelle; Hyst, hysteroscopy; D&C, dilatati on and curett age; EB S, endometrial biopsy, Semm’s canula; EB K, endometrial biopsy, Karman; SC, soft cyto.
In total, these 20 studies described 6,974 women with a median sample size of 209 (range 47 to 1,926). Study characteristi cs are reported in Table 3. In 13 studies parti al verifi cati on occurred, whereas in the other seven studies endometrial verifi cati on was performed in all women. In 5,198 out of 6,974 women an endometrial sample was obtained. Endometrial carcinoma was found in 32 and atypical endometrial hyperplasia in 21 women.
Diagnosis of endometrial carcinomaEight diff erent endometrial thickness cut-off values were reported in the 20 studies. Sensiti vity, specifi city, negati ve predicti ve value and positi ve predicti ve value for the detecti on of endometrial carcinoma for each reported endometrial thickness cut-off value are reported in Table 4. Positi ve predicti ve values varied between 0 and 0.2 and negati ve predicti ve value, if esti mable, was 1. For the reported endometrial thickness cut-off s 4, 5 and 6 mm we were able to calculate a summary sensiti vity and specifi city for the detecti on of endometrial carcinoma, the remaining fi ve cut-off s were reported by one single study, for these cut-off s we were therefore unable to calculate summary sensiti vity and specifi city.
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Tabl
e 3.
Cha
ract
eris
tics
of s
tudi
es in
clud
ed fo
r es
timati
on o
f sen
sitiv
ity a
nd s
peci
ficity
of e
ndom
etri
al t
hick
ness
as
mea
sure
d by
tra
nsva
gina
l ultr
a-so
und
with
rega
rd to
pre
mal
igna
nt o
r mal
igna
nt e
ndom
etri
um in
asy
mpt
omati
c po
stm
enop
ausa
l wom
en n
ot u
sing
hor
mon
e re
plac
emen
t the
rapy
.
Pati
ents
< c
ut o
ffPa
tien
ts >
cut
off
Aut
hor
Year
Coun
try
nVe
rific
ation
m
etho
dPa
tien
ts
veri
fied
(n)
Cut-
off†
Tota
l (n)
Wit
h EC
(n)
Wit
h A
EH (n
)To
tal (
n)W
ith
EC (n
)W
ith
AEH
(n)
And
olf11
1993
Swed
en30
0D
&C
115
mm
289
NR
NR
110
0
Cohe
n2319
99U
SA60
EBP
605
mm
380
022
00
Exac
oust
os34
1996
Ital
y91
0H
yst +
bio
psy
838
mm
827
NR
NR
833
NR
Fern
ande
z3520
08Sp
ain
209
Hys
t + b
iops
y20
95
mm
NR
NR
NR
209
5N
R
Flei
sche
r3620
01U
SA19
26EB
NS
1792
6 m
m18
331
493
10
Gou
veia
2620
07Br
azil
47EB
P47
5 m
m28
0N
R19
1N
R
Gul
l1219
96Sw
eden
361
Hys
t + D
&C
188
mm
343
NR
NR
180
0
Güv
en13
2003
Turk
ey97
D&
C97
5 m
m75
00
220
0
Kasr
aeia
n1420
11Ir
an25
9H
yst +
bio
psy
259
5 m
m21
80
541
14
Mal
inov
a1519
96Bu
lgar
ia13
0D
&C
306
mm
95N
RN
R35
0N
R
Mar
ello
2920
00It
aly
328
Hys
t + b
iops
y32
84
mm
199
1N
R12
90
NR
Min
agaw
a1620
05Ja
pan
146
SC5
5 m
m14
1N
RN
R5
10
Para
skev
aidi
s3120
02G
reec
e59
EBK
599
mm
390
020
11
Pard
o3719
98Is
rael
85H
yst +
bio
psy
857
mm
NR
NR
NR
853
0
Psyl
laki
3820
10G
reec
e85
0H
yst +
D&
C14
95
mm
701
NR
NR
149
01
Ribe
iro39
2007
Braz
il39
9H
yst +
bio
psy
399
4 m
mN
RN
RN
R39
91
1
Schm
idt40
1999
Ger
man
y20
9H
yst +
D&
C20
96
mm
NR
NR
NR
209
84
Tsud
a3219
97Ja
pan
375
EES
+ EB
NS
375
3 m
m26
40
NR
111
1N
R
4 m
m31
21
NR
630
NR
6 m
m34
51
NR
300
NR
8 m
m35
21
NR
230
NR
10 m
m36
21
NR
130
NR
Vala
dare
s4120
05Po
rtug
al15
0H
yst +
bio
psy
150
4 m
mN
RN
RN
R15
02
NR
Zacc
hi42
*19
93It
aly
74H
yst +
bio
psy
68
mm
68N
RN
R6
00
*Sin
gle
laye
r mea
sure
men
t, v
alue
s rep
orte
d in
arti
cle
are
mul
tiplie
d by
two.
† The
repo
rted
num
ber i
s inc
lude
d in
the
cut-
off, i
.e. c
ut o
ff 5
mm
mea
ns E
T ≥
5mm
. EC,
end
omet
rial
car
cino
ma;
AEH
, at
ypic
al e
ndom
etri
al h
yper
plas
ia;T
VS, t
rans
vagi
nal u
ltras
onog
raph
y; E
T, e
ndom
etri
al t
hick
ness
; NR,
not
rep
orte
d; N
A, n
ot a
pplic
able
End
omet
rial
ver
ifica
tion
met
hods
: D&
C, d
ilata
tion
and
cure
ttag
e; E
B P,
end
omet
rial
bio
psy,
Pip
elle
; Hys
t, h
yste
rosc
opy;
EB
NS,
end
omet
rial
bio
psy
not s
peci
fied;
SC,
soft
cyto
; EB
K, e
ndom
etri
al b
iops
y, K
arm
an; E
ES, e
ndoc
yte
endo
met
rial
sam
pler
.
Endometrial thickness measurement in asymptomati c postmenopausal women
105
8
Table 4. Sensiti vity, specifi city, positi ve and negati ve predicti ve value of endometrial thickness as measured by transvaginal ultrasound with regard to endometrial carcinoma. Studies are grouped by reported cut-off value.
Study Year TP FP Fn Tn Sensiti vity Specifi city PPv nPv
Endometrial thickness cut-off 3 mm
Tsuda32 1997 1 110 0 264 1.00 (0.03-1.00) 0.71 (0.66-0.75) 0.009 1
Endometrial thickness cut-off 4 mm
Marello29 2000 0 129 1 198 0.00 (0.00-0.97) 0.61 (0.55-0.66) 0 1
Ribeiro39 2007 1 398 NR NR NE NE 0.003 NE
Tsuda32 1997 0 63 1 311 0.00 (0.00-0.97) 0.83 (0.79-0.87) 0 1
Valadares41 2005 2 148 NR NR NE NE 0.01 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 5 mm
Andolf11 1993 0 11 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Cohen23 1999 0 22 0 38 NE 0.63 (0.50-0.75) 0 1
Fernandez35 2008 5 204 NR NR NE NE 0.02 NE
Gouveia26 2007 1 18 0 28 1.00 (0.03-1.00) 0.61 (0.45-0.75) 0.05 1
Guven13 2003 0 22 0 75 NE 0.77 (0.68-0.85) 0 1
Kasraeian14 2011 1 40 0 218 1.00 (0.03-1.00) 0.84 (0.79-0.89) 0.02 1
Minagawa16 2005 1 4 NR NR NE NE 0.2 NE
Psyllaki38 2010 0 149 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 6 mm
Fleischer36 2001 1 92 1 1832 0.50 (0.01-0.99) 0.95 (0.94-0.96) 0.01 1
Malinova15 1996 0 35 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Schmidt40 1999 8 201 NR NR NE NE 0.04 NE
Tsuda32 1997 0 30 1 344 0.00 (0.00-0.97) 0.92 (0.98-0.95) 0 1
Endometrial thickness cut-off 7 mm
Pardo37 1998 3 82 NR NR NE NE 0.04 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 8 mm
Exacoustos34 1996 3 80 NR NR NE NE 0.04 NE
Gull12 1996 0 18 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Tsuda32 1997 0 23 1 351 0.00 (0.00-0.97) 0.94 (0.91-0.96) 0 1
Zacchi42 1993 0 6 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 9 mm
Paraskevaidis31 2002 1 19 0 39 1.00 (0.03-1.00) 0.67 (0.54-0.79) 0.05 1
Endometrial thickness cut-off 10 mm
Tsuda32 1997 0 13 1 361 0.00 (0.00-0.97) 0.97 (0.94-0.98) 0 1
TP, true positi ve; FP, false positi ve; FN, false negati ve; TN, true negati ve; PPV, positi ve predicti ve value; NPV, negati ve predicti ve value; NR, not reported; NE, not esti mable.
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106
The summary estimate of the sensitivity for the different cut-offs varied between 0.00 and 0.83. The summary estimate of the specificity for the different cut-offs varied between 0.72 and 0.93 (Table 5). For the summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity as well as for the reported sensitivity and specificity, the 95% confidence intervals were very wide, indicating the high uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
Table 5. Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity with regard to endometrial carcinoma for different transvaginal ultrasound derived endometrial thickness cutoff values.
Threshold mm No of studies No of women sens (95% CI) spec (95% CI)
3 1 375 1.00 (0.03-1.00) 0.71 (0.66-0.75)
4 2 703 0.00 (0.00-1.00) 0.73 (0.55-0.86)
5 2 306 0.83 (0.19-1.00) 0.72 (0.23-0.95)
6 2 2301 0.33 (0.04-0.85) 0.94 (0.92-0.96)
7 0 0 NE NE
8 1 375 0.00 (0.00-0.97) 0.94 (0.91-0.96)
9 1 59 1.00 (0.03-1.00) 0.67 (0.54-0.79)
10 1 375 0.00 (0.00-0.97) 0.96 (0.94-0.98)
95% CI, 95% confidence interval; NE, not possible to estimate
Diagnosis of atypical endometrial hyperplasiaSix different endometrial thickness cut-off values were reported by 13 studies. The other seven studies did not report on an endometrial thickness cut-off for atypical endometrial hyperplasia. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value for the detection of atypical endometrial hyperplasia for each reported endometrial thickness cut-off value are reported in Table 6. There were no cut-off values for which multiple studies reported sufficient data to calculate both sensitivity and specificity. Therefore, we were unable to calculate summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity for the different cut-off values for atypical endometrial hyperplasia. With regard to atypical endometrial hyperplasia, the range of sensitivity was 0.00–1.00 and the range of specificity was 0.63–0.95.
Diagnosis of combined (pre-) malignancyFor this combined analysis, studies were included if they reported on both endometrial carcinoma and atypical endometrial hyperplasia. All 20 studies reported on endometrial carcinoma and 13 studies reported on atypical endometrial hyperplasia as well. Six different endometrial cut-off values were reported. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value for the detection of endometrial (pre-) malignancy for each reported endometrial thickness cut-off value are reported in Table 7. As for atypical endometrial hyperplasia, there were no cut-off values for which multiple studies reported
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suffi cient data to calculate both sensiti vity and specifi city. Therefore, we were unable to calculate summary esti mates of sensiti vity and specifi city for the diff erent cut-off values for the combined outcome of (pre-) malignancy. With regard to the combined diagnosis of premalignant and malignant endometrium, the range of sensiti vity was 0.17–1.0 and the range of specifi city was 0.63–0.95.
Table 6. Sensiti vity, specifi city, positi ve and negati ve predicti ve value of endometrial thickness as measured by transvaginal ultrasound with regard to atypical endometrial hyperplasia. Studies are grouped by reported cut-off value.
Study Year TP FP Fn Tn Sensiti vity Specifi city PPv nPv
Endometrial thickness cut-off 4 mm
Ribeiro39 2007 1 398 NR NR NE NE 0.003 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 5 mm
Andolf11 1993 0 11 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Cohen23 1999 0 22 0 38 NE 0.63 (0.50-0.75) 0 1
Guven13 2003 0 22 0 75 NE 0.77 (0.68-0.85) 0 1
Kasraeian14 2011 4 37 5 213 0.44 (0.14-0.79) 0.85 (0.80-0.89) 0.098 0.98
Minagawa16 2005 0 5 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Psyllaki38 2010 1 148 NR NR NE NE 0.007 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 6 mm
Fleischer36 2001 0 93 4 1829 0.00 (0.00-0.60) 0.95 (0.94-0.96) 0 1
Schmidt40 1999 4 205 NR NR NE NE 0.02 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 7 mm
Pardo37 1998 0 85 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 8 mm
Gull12 1996 0 18 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Zacchi42 1993 0 6 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 9 mm
Paraskevaidis31 2002 1 19 0 39 1.00 (0.03-1.00) 0.67 (0.54-0.79) 0.05 1
TP, true positi ve; FP, false positi ve; FN, false negati ve; TN, true negati ve; PPV, positi ve predicti ve value; NPV, negati ve predicti ve value; NR, not reported; NE, not esti mable.
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Table 7. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of endometrial thickness as measured by transvaginal ultrasound with regard to endometrial malignancy /premalignancy. Studies are grouped by reported cut-off value.
Study Year TP FP Fn Tn Sensitivity Specificity PPv nPv
Endometrial thickness cut-off 4 mm
Ribeiro39 2007 2 397 NR NR NE NE 0.005 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 5 mm
Andolf11 1993 0 11 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Cohen23 1999 0 22 0 38 NE 0.63 (0.50-0.75) 0 1
Guven13 2003 0 22 0 75 NE 0.77 (0.68-0.85) 0 1
Kasraeian14 2011 5 36 5 213 0.50 (0.19-0.81) 0.86 (0.81-0.90) 0.12 0.98
Minagawa16 2005 1 4 NR NR NE NE 0.2 NE
Psyllaki38 2010 1 148 NR NR NE NE 0.007 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 6 mm
Fleischer36 2001 1 92 5 1828 0.17 (0.00-0.64) 0.95 (0.94-0.96) 0.01 1
Schmidt40 1999 12 205 NR NR NE NE 0.06 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 7 mm
Pardo37 1998 3 82 NR NR NE NE 0.04 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 8 mm
Gull12 1996 0 18 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Zacchi42 1993 0 6 NR NR NE NE 0 NE
Endometrial thickness cut-off 9 mm
Paraskevaidis31 2002 2 18 0 39 1.00 (0.16-1.00) 0.68 (0.55-0.80) 0.1 1
TP, true positive; FP, false positive; FN, false negative; TN, true negative; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; NR, not reported; NE, not estimable.
DISCuSSIOn
Our review shows that in a population of postmenopausal women without PMB and not using HRT, the mean endometrial thickness is 2.9 mm and the prevalence of endometrial carcinoma and atypical endometrial hyperplasia is 0.62% and 0.59% respectively. Positive predictive values for the three outcomes (endometrial carcinoma, atypical endometrial hyperplasia and both combined) for all reported endometrial thickness cut-offs were between 0 and 0.2.The NPV of TVS was between 0.98 and 1.0, at all endometrial thickness cut-offs and for all three disease outcomes. However, the utility of a negative test in an asymptomatic postmenopausal population is limited because the absolute risk of disease is already low, as demonstrated in this review (prevalence of endometrial carcinoma 0.62% and atypical endometrial hyperplasia 0.59%). This contrasts to symptomatic postmenopausal women where the pre-testing risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia varies between 5 and 20%.43, 44 Thus, TVS is only of value in postmenopausal women with vaginal bleeding
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(PMB) because a clinically substanti al reducti on in disease probability may be achieved by the use of TVS. This reducti on is typically from around 10% to below 1% for endometrial carcinoma,3 a probability threshold where fi rstly, the majority of clinicians recommend reassurance and no need for further evaluati on of the endometrium, and secondly, a post-TVS probability is demonstrated to be equivalent to the prevalence in asymptomati c postmenopausal female populati on.4-7 The strength of our analysis is the complete overview of data combining endometrial thickness, endometrial carcinoma and atypical endometrial hyperplasia in asymptomati c postmenopausal women without HRT. We describe mean endometrial thickness and the prevalence of endometrial (pre-) malignancies in these women. Furthermore, we assessed the diagnosti c accuracy of endometrial thickness measurements in this populati on. Eff orts were made to identi fy all available publicati ons on this subject and we used the most appropriate technique to summarize the sensiti vity and specifi city, to come to bett er esti mates than the formerly applied summary receiver operati ng characteristi c curve (sROC) technique for meta-regression in diagnosti c meta-analysis.10, 45-47 To our knowledge, there is no previously published review or meta-analysis on this subject.A limitati on of our study is that despite the thousands of women included in our analysis, the esti mates of sensiti vity and specifi city are very imprecise, especially the esti mates of sensiti vity. Another limitati on could be a bias because of the quality of the included studies. We tried to minimize this bias by performing quality assessment and applying strict criteria for inclusion of studies in the meta-analysis.In a decision analysis performed by Smith-Bindman et al.8, an endometrial thickness cut-off of 11 mm for an incidentally measured increased endometrial thickness in an asymptomati c woman was proposed. In this decision analysis the risk of malignancy in a woman below the threshold is extremely low and the risk of malignancy above the threshold varied between 2.2% and 9.3%. In contrast to this analysis, which was a decision analysis in a theoreti cal cohort, we analyzed observati onal data. Unfortunately, we had insuffi cient data available from the published studies to calculate an opti mal threshold for endometrial thickness based on the sensiti vity and specifi city reported in the diff erent studies. Because of the low prevalence of the disease, the 95% CI for the summary esti mates of sensiti vity are very wide indicati ng a high inaccuracy. The use of TVS is not limited to women with PMB. The portability and improved resoluti on of TVS has contributed to the ubiquity of the test in routi ne gynecological practi ce. Postmenopausal women undergo TVS for a variety of gynecological indicati ons (e.g. pelvic pain, suspicion of a pelvic mass, uterine prolapse). During TVS for such non-bleeding indicati ons, images of the endometrium are frequently obtained and a thickened endometrium may be observed. This situati on of an apparently incidental fi nding of an abnormal endometrium will be familiar to all practi cing ultrasonographists. Faced with such
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a TVS finding, it is difficult for the physician to decide on the right management and usually results in a decision to undertake further, more invasive testing with endometrial sampling and / or hysteroscopy in keeping with current PMB pathways. Therefore, the findings of this review, describing normative values for endometrial thickness, determining serious disease prevalence and estimating diagnostic accuracy at various TVS thresholds, in this non-bleeding postmenopausal population are clinically important. Our review has shown that the average TVS derived endometrial thickness is 2.9 mm. However, the significance of an endometrial thickness beyond 4 mm is not the same as for a symptomatic PMB population and extrapolating protocols from PMB to an asymptomatic population is not justifiable in view of the poor performance of TVS in detecting serious endometrial disease at all cut-offs and the low overall disease prevalence. Because the prevalence of the target disease in an unselected postmenopausal population without bleeding symptoms and without HRT is very low, and endometrial thickness measurement in this population cannot achieve a sufficiently high sensitivity to provide additional reassurance to women with a negative test nor achieve a sufficiently high specificity to justify further invasive testing in women with a positive test, endometrial thickness measurement has no value in this population. Furthermore, there is no evidence that patients in whom endometrial cancer was discovered while being asymptomatic have a prognostic advantage over postmenopausal endometrial cancer patients who visited their gynecologists immediately after bleeding had occurred.48 Thus, the results from this systematic review do not justify the use of endometrial thickness as a screening test for endometrial carcinoma and atypical endometrial hyperplasia in any asymptomatic postmenopausal woman without HRT. Hence, the need for further diagnostic evaluation of the endometrium should be made by the clinician on an individual patient basis taking into account clinical signs (e.g. abnormal findings at physical examination, pelvic pain, distension, urinary and bowel complaints etc.), risk factors for endometrial disease (e.g. abnormal BMI, medical co-morbidities, family history etc.) and patient preference.49-54
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29. Marello F, Bettocchi S, Greco P et al. Hysteroscopic evaluation of menopausal patients with sonographically atrophic endometrium. J Am Assoc Gynecol Laparosc 2000;7(2):197-200.
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34. Exacoustos C, Chiaretti M, Minghetti MC, Bianchi L, Arduini D, Romanini C. Endometrial Evaluation in Asymptomatic Postmenopausal Women by Transvaginal Sonography and Color Flow Doppler. J Am Assoc Gynecol Laparosc 1996;3(4, Supplement):S12.
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38. Psyllaki AN, I. Transvaginal sonographic prognostic value to detect endometrial pathology in postmenopausal asymptomatic women without hormone replacement therapy. Archives of Gynecology and Obstetrics 2010;Conference(Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Gynakologie und Geburtshilfe, DGGG):Munich-S112.
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40. Schmidt TR. The role of hysteroscopy in the management of asymptomatic postmenopausal patients with suspicious ultrasound findings of the uterine endometrium - Correlation with sonographic and histologic findings. Geburtshilfe und Frauenheilkunde 1999;59(4):163-166.
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47. Shapiro DE. Issues in combining independent esti mates of the sensiti vity and specifi city of a diagnosti c test. Acad Radiol 1995;2 Suppl 1:S37-S47.
48. Gerber B, Krause A, Muller H et al. Ultrasonographic detecti on of asymptomati c endometrial cancer in postmenopausal pati ents off ers no prognosti c advantage over symptomati c disease discovered by uterine bleeding. Eur J Cancer 2001;37(1):64-71.
49. Anderson KE, Anderson E, Mink PJ et al. Diabetes and endometrial cancer in the Iowa women’s health study. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2001;10(6):611-616.
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53. Weiderpass E, Persson I, Adami HO, Magnusson C, Lindgren A, Baron JA. Body size in diff erent periods of life, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and risk of postmenopausal endometrial cancer (Sweden). Cancer Causes Control 2000;11(2):185-192.
54. Xu WH, Xiang YB, Ruan ZX et al. Menstrual and reproducti ve factors and endometrial cancer risk: Results from a populati on-based case-control study in urban Shanghai. Int J Cancer 2004;108(4):613-619.
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APPEnDIX
Appendix 1. Search Strategy
Medline#1. Postmenopause [MeSH]#2. Postmenopau* [tiab]#3. Post-menopau* [tiab]#4. #1 OR #2 OR #3#5. Asymptomatic [tiab]#6. Screening [tiab]#7. #5 OR #6#8. #4 AND #7#9. Ultrasonography [MeSH]#10. Utrasound* [tiab]#11. Ultrasonograph* [tiab]#12. Sonograph* [tiab]#13. Echograph* [tiab]#14. Ultrasonic imaging* [tiab]#15. #9 OR #10 OR #11 OR #12 OR #13 OR #14#16. Endometrium [MeSH]#17. Endometrial thickness [tiab]#18. #16 OR #17#19. #15 AND #18#20. #19 AND #8#21. Endometrial neoplasms [MeSH]#22. Endometrial neoplasm* [tiab]#23. Endometrial carcinoma* [tiab]#24. Endometrial cancer* [tiab]#25. Endometrial malignanc* [tiab]#26. Endometrial tumo* [tiab]#27. #21 OR #22 OR #23 OR #24 OR #25 OR #26#28. Endometrial hyperplasia [MeSH]#29. Endometrial hyperplasia* [tiab]#30. #28 OR # 29#31. #27 OR #30#32. # 8 AND # 31#33. # 20 OR # 32
Embase#1. Postmenopausal#2. Postmenopau$.ti,ab#3. Post-menopau$.ti,ab#4. #1 OR #2 OR #3#5. Asymptomatic.ti,ab#6. Screening.ti,ab#7. #5 OR #6#8. #4 AND #7#9. Ultrasound$.ti,ab#10. Ultrasonograph$.ti,ab#11. Sonograph$.ti,ab#12. Echograph$.ti,ab#13. Ultrasonic imaging$.ti,ab#14. #9 OR #10 OR #11 OR #12 OR #13#15. Endometri$.ti,ab#16. Endometrial thickness.ti,ab#17. #15 OR #16#18. # 14 AND #17#19. #18 AND #8#20. Endometrial carcinoma$.ti,ab#21. Endometrial neoplasm$.ti,ab#22. Endometrial cancer$.ti,ab#23. Endometrial malignanc$.ti,ab#24. Endometrial tumo$.ti,ab#25. #20 OR #21 OR #22 OR #23 OR #24#26. Endometrial hyperplasia$.ti,ab#27. #25 OR #26#28. #8 AND #27#29. #19 OR #28
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Appendix 2. QUADAS checklist
Item Questi on Answer
Yes no Unclear
1 Was the spectrum of pati ents representati ve of the pati ents who will receive the test in practi ce?
2 Were selecti on criteria clearly described?
3 Is the reference standard likely to correctly classify the target conditi on?
4 Is the ti me period between reference standard and index test short enough to be reasonably sure that the target conditi on did not change between the two tests?
5 Did the whole sample or a random selecti on of the sample, receive verifi cati on using a reference standard of diagnosis?
6 Did pati ents receive the same reference standard regardless of the index test result?
7 Was the reference standard independent of the index test?
8 Was the executi on of the index test described in suffi cient detail to permit replicati on of the test?
9 Was the executi on of the reference standard described in suffi cient detail to permit its replicati on?
10 Were the index test results interpreted without knowledge of the results of the reference standard?
11 Were the reference standard results interpreted without knowledge of the results of the index test?
12 Were the same clinical data available when test results were interpreted as would be available when the test is used in practi ce?
13 Were uninterpretable / intermediate test results reported?
14 Were withdrawals from the study explained?