v k mehta executive director long products & international trade indian steel markets 2011 15-16...
TRANSCRIPT
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V K MehtaExecutive Director
Long products & International Trade
Indian Steel Markets 201115-16th March 2011
Gurgaon
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Construction
• Construction as a sector can broadly be divided into three major categories:
CONSTRUCTION
Infrastructure Real Estate Industrial
Roads, Railways,Bridges, Ports,
Airports, Power,Irrigation
Commercial,Retail,
Housing
Metal RefineriesFertilizers,
Petrochemicals,Cement, Oil & Gas
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Dominant Steel
Consuming
Sector
Double
digit
growth
~10.5% in
FY 11-12
Still
predominantly
Cement based
“Ready to use
raw m
ateria
ls,
prefab
constr
uction
gaining
momentum
IndianConstructio
n
Distinct shift towards quality &
quality raw materials
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Source: CRISIL Research
Construction & infrastructure contribute to >60% of steel consumption
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Expected to cross $100 billion from FY 2011-12 onward
Source: Indian Economy, SAIL Research
In $ billion
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Investment as % of GDP constantly rising
Source: Juggernaut is starting to roll…., India: Construction: Infrastructure, Goldman Sachs via Thomson Research, 11.10.10
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Sector Key Opportunities
Power Government targets adding 100,000MW capacity by 2012Both generation and transmission capacities being enhanced significantly
Oil & gas Pipeline network, city gas distribution, refinery infrastructure installation & upgrading
Road & highways
National Highway Development Program (NHDP)Plans to construct and upgrade >50,000 km of national highway by Dec 2015
Railways Dedicated Rail Freight Corridor (DRFC) network expansion lagging freight growth; this needs to be expedited
Ports Port traffic is estimated to increase by a CAGR of about 12% during 2010-12
Water & waste management
The Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission is expected to increase steel consumption
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04/10/23 8
POWER
WORLD AVERAGE PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
AT 2500 kwh / YEAR
INDIA - INSTALLED CAPACITY DISTRIBUTION
THERMAL : 65%
HYDRO-POWER : 25%
NUCLEAR : 2.9%
OTHERS (RES) : 7.7%
Opportunity for steel use in power generation, transmission and distribution
Source. : MoP
Source. : MoP
Power Sector
Power sector is one of biggest steel user
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Source: IDFC-SSKI Research
Traffic load in million tons
Tardy growth of 3% in railways network in 15 yrs.Railways’ share only 30%, despite being cheap & faster.Container operations still insignificant at 1%.
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Category Short term target (10-11 to
11-12)
Long term target (12-13 to
19-20)
Total target
Doubling (Indl DFC)
1000 kms 11000 kms 12000 kms
Gauge conversion
2500 kms 9500 kms 12000 kms
New Lines 1000 kms 24000 kms 25000 kms
Electrification 2000 kms 12000 kms 14000 kms
New Wagons 33909 255227 289136
High Speed Corridors
--- 2000 kms 2000 kms
The vision call for around $ 310 billion of investment over next 10 years
Source: Ministry of Railways
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04/10/23 11
Source. : Dept. Of Road Transport & H’ways
Transport – Road Network
Plan 20 Km of NH per day
Road Type
Length 000’km
% share
of total
length
Traffic Distribution
National / Express Highways
70.7 2% 40%
State Highways
132.0 4% 40%
Major & District Roads
467.8 14%
20%Rural & Other Road
2,650.0 80%
Total 3320.4 100% 100%
Projects under implementation NHDP-I & II – $14.3 billion NHDP- III - $17.8 billion NHDP -IV – $ 6.1 billion NHDP –V – $ 9.1 billion NHDP –VI – $ 3.7 billion
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In million tons
Source: india Transportation: sea & Land Cargo.. Nomura International Ltd Via Thomson Research
GOI FY12 plan is 1 billion tons
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Transport – Airports
Source: Min of Aviation
At Airports in Lakhs
in ‘000 tons
More & more modern & private airports
As per estimates the steel consumption in airport building likely to grow >20%
Development of Tier-II city airports will sustain consumption growth.
Steel intensive construction
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Indian economy is estimated to grow @8.6% in 2010-11& @9.0% in 2011-12.
Construction growth is stunted @ 7-8% presently.
Distinct surplus of construction steel in India High inflation ( expected at 9%) is a huge
concern. Credit squeeze also adversely affecting construction.
High-end reality (Commercial, retail & housing) severely impacted.
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