vaccination of yellowstone bison   purpose/need   decision   alternatives  ...

Vaccination of Yellowstone BisonPurpose/NeedDecisionAlternativesUncertaintiesAssumptionsAvailable InformationTime frame

Purpose/Need

Purpose Address NPS responsibility to advance the IBMP through in-park vaccination of free-ranging bison

Need Through adaptive management, reduce brucellosis infection rate of bison and decrease shedding Brucella

DecisionThe affected environment is Yellowstone National Park.

Whether to implement long-term remote delivery vaccination of bison park-wide

Remote delivery is defined as vaccination without capture and handling of individual animals.

Current remote vaccination technology focuses on a compressed air powered rifle that delivers a bio-absorbable projectile with vaccine in the payload compartment.

AlternativesAlternative A No Action

Per IBMP ROD, continue syringe vaccination of calves and yearlings captured at Stephens Creek for risk management and released back into the park in the spring Alternative B Young Bison Only

Continue syringe vaccination program at Stephens Creek and initiate long-term remote delivery vaccination of calves and yearlingsAlternative C Young Bison and Adult Females

Continue syringe vaccination program at Stephens Creek and initiate long-term remote delivery vaccination of calves, yearlings, and adult females

AlternativesAlternatives Eliminated from Further Consideration

Remote delivery of vaccine that results in no detectable difference (e.g. S19)

Remote delivery that results in change in behavior or demography (e.g. helicopter darting)

Vaccination with killed vaccines (e.g. DNA)

Vaccination with ineffective remote delivery mechanisms (e.g. current oral and aerosol )

AlternativesElements Common to all Alternatives

Health, welfare, and conservation of bison

Safe and effective delivery system

Monitoring effects and effectiveness of vaccination

Adaptive management

UncertaintiesWill individual bison exhibit a sufficient immune response when vaccinated (e.g. variation across age and sex class)?

Can vaccine be delivered annually to a sufficient number of bison?

Will remote vaccination lead to long-term changes in individual and population-level bison behavior?

Will there be compounding effects of repeated vaccination?

Will long-term vaccination result in decreased disease prevalence at the population level?

AssumptionsIntermediate efficacy of RB51 vaccine

Not all eligible bison vaccinated each year

Not all vaccinated bison exhibit an immune response

With current vaccine and delivery technology, vaccination effectiveness at the population level will be a long-term (e.g. 20-30 years) response

Vaccine technology may evolve to produce improved vaccine

Vaccine delivery technology may evolve to produce improved delivery effectiveness

Available InformationWildlife vaccination literature review

Bison population demography and movements

Feasibility of remote delivery (accuracy trials, effects to muscle tissue from ballistic delivery, vaccine formulation)

Quantitative modeling of vaccination effectiveness

Available InformationBison population demography and movements

Chart1

54.542069992692.1478060046

76.473081814370.4675028506

85.587044534474.7948417351

78.756476683965.3452685422

81.79723502359.1586327783

9566

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Central Herd

Northern Herd

Year

Males per 100 females .

Stats WEST

yearcentralwestproportion

197026100.0

197138800.0

197241100.0

197349200.0

197454500.0

197578200.0

197685400.0

197797000.0

1978116500.0

1979114400.0

1980145900.0

1981146100.0

1984155200.0

19851609160.01Removal Statistics:

1986177860.00Min = 0

19872036330.02Max=358

1988208900.0stdev=93.14

1989188500.0mean=46.95

19902203140.01se= (stdev/sqrt(samplesize)) = 15.31

19912290220.0195%CI=30.01

19922676790.03

1993263550.00

199429741190.04

199530623440.11

199625933580.14

1997171500.0

19981399940.07

1999190400.0

2000192460.00

200125642020.08

20022902130.00

20032923140.00

200433391140.03

20053531640.02

20062512160.01

200726242650.10

We found strong support that removals at west yellowstone occurred predominantly on central herd bison. During 1970-2007 annual removals varied between 0 and 358 bison which represents 0-14% of the central herd. Mean annual removals were 46.95 + 30.01, suggesting removals occurred to small annual proportion of population. Thus, we didn't anticipate to detect significant affects of west boundary removals on central herd demographics.

Stats GARDpost

yearnorthcentralgardinerProp - NorthernProp - Central

19958663062260.030.01

199678525937250.920.28

1997455171500.000.00

1998493139900.000.00

1999540190400.000.00

2000508192400.000.00

2001719256400.000.00

200281329022310.280.08

200388829232660.300.09

2004876333910.000.00

2005148435319790.660.28

200613772512470.030.02

20072070262414630.710.56

Removal Statistics:

Min = 0

Max=1463

stdev=472.28

mean=287.54

se= (stdev/sqrt(samplesize)) = 130.99

95%CI=256.74

We found support that removals at gardiner after 1994 were explained by both central and northern herd dynamics suggesting that both herds were subject to culls and harvests near the north boundary. Marked animal relocations during 1995-2007 enables us to estimate relative occurrences of removals on each herd. We suspect that most removals occurring at Gardiner during 1995-1996 targeted northern herd bison (Meagher yyyy, Aune unpubl. collar data). During 2002-2006, we suspect the majority of bison removed were members of the central herd. Roughly equal numbers of northern and central herd animals were removed during 2007-08.

Removals were frequent and large in scale.

North Ratios

GROUND OBSERVATIONS: NORTHERN HERD

Nursery GroupsProportion of Obs. Bison in each Age/Sex Class

YearBullCow1Bull1CowCalfYearBullCow1Bull1CowCalf

200216720025229320020.330.390.050.040.18

2003292403342715620030.320.440.040.030.17

2004479789628230920040.280.460.040.050.18

20054817651128825020050.280.450.070.050.15

20063186709010230820060.210.450.060.070.21

2007473100316712950820070.210.440.070.060.22

Adult GroupsProportion of Obs. Bison in each Age/Sex Class

YearBullCow1Bull1CowCalfYearBullCow1Bull1CowCalf

200238100020020.970.030.000.000.00

200373300020030.960.040.000.000.00

200477600020040.930.070.000.000.00

200545000020051.000.000.000.000.00

20061031000020060.910.090.000.000.00

200735900020070.800.200.000.000.00

AIR OBSERVATIONS: NORTHERN HERDProportion of Calves in Nursery Groups

YearTOTAL NURSERY GPTotal in Nursery GroupTOTAL ADULT GPCALVES NURSERY GPNorthern high CountYear

20026427695212781320020.1651495449

2003731880814988820030.1693181818

20041074121012713687620040.1123966942

200514840014842005

20061072125029178137720060.1424

20071661200565344207020070.1715710723

Predicted No. of Bison in each Age and Sex Class in the NORTHERN HerdPREDICTEDOBSERVED

>1

YearBullCow1Bull1CowCalfYEARMALE:FEMALEYEARMALE:FEMALEMALE:FEMALE

2002303.966469428304.686390532537.919132149933.3688362919141.059171597620021.011330618320021.031.02

2003289.4385964912389.175438596532.807017543926.0526315789150.526315789520030.776068953920030.920.90

2004454.5944078464563.910531142643.590935502657.6525276002217.251597908220040.801504105420040.700.70

2005200520050.750.69

2006293.5707250928565.402393186875.604838709785.685483871258.736559139820060.567013419920060.650.62

2007467.6541068581895.3195773525146.8574561404113.4407894737446.728070175420070.609174966820070.590.50

Raw Observed Data does a better job of counting bulls - would recommend using raw observed data and change the text in the manuscript can make a statement that we tested with correcting for bulls and calves in an appendix

North Ratios

MALE:FEMALE

Central Ratios

GROUND OBSERVATIONS: CENTRAL HERD

Nursery GroupsProportion of Obs. Bison in each Age/Sex Class

YearBullCow1Bull1CowCalfYearBullCow1Bull1CowCalf

200226998717220046920020.130.470.080.100.22

2003824229822636476520030.180.510.050.080.17

20041181208631026992920040.250.440.060.060.19

20051174215835331087320050.240.440.070.060.18

2006819150131523358920060.240.430.090.070.17

2007930151421921564720070.260.430.060.060.18

Adult GroupsProportion of Obs. Bison in each Age/Sex Class

YearBullCow1Bull1CowCalfYearBullCow1Bull1CowCalf

200284400020020.950.050.000.000.00

20034152400020030.950.050.000.000.00

2004313400020040.990.010.000.000.00

2005587200020051.000.000.000.000.00

2006234201020060.990.010.000.000.00

2007271700020070.970.030.000.000.00

AIR OBSERVATIONS: CENTRAL HERDProportion of Calves in Nursery Groups

YearTOTAL ADULTS NURSERY GPTotal in Nursery GroupTOTAL ADULT GPCALVES NURSERY GPCentral Herd High CountYear

200222342786108552290220020.1981335248

20032384287548491292320030.1707826087

200420932594217501333920040.1931380108

200535310035312005Didn't differentiate calves from adults

200620422355141313251220060.1329087049

20072104254975445262420070.174578266

Predicted No. of Bison in each Age and Sex Class in the Central HerdPREDICTEDOBSERVED

>1

YearB