VALIDATION OF CLIMATE-BASED VALIDATION OF CLIMATE-BASED LAKE OKEECHOBEE NET LAKE OKEECHOBEE NET

INFLOW OUTLOOKSINFLOW OUTLOOKSLONINOLONINO

Paul TrimblePaul Trimble

Jayantha ObeysekeraJayantha Obeysekera Ph.D., P.E., D.WREPh.D., P.E., D.WRE

South Florida Water Management DistrictSouth Florida Water Management District

Lake Okeechobee is Lake Okeechobee is a Regional Multiple a Regional Multiple

Purpose Water Purpose Water ResourceResource

In lake Environment & Recreational Use

Regional Hydrologic System of South FloridaRegional Hydrologic System of South Florida Water SupplyWater Supply

• AgricultureAgriculture• UrbanUrban• Natural SystemsNatural Systems

Flood ProtectionFlood Protection

Environmental and Ecosystem Preservation and Environmental and Ecosystem Preservation and RestorationRestoration Lake Okeechobee Littoral ZoneLake Okeechobee Littoral Zone Caloosahatchee, and St Lucie Estuaries Caloosahatchee, and St Lucie Estuaries Everglades Hydroperiod RestorationEverglades Hydroperiod Restoration

RecreationalRecreational

KissimmeeKissimmeeKissimmeeKissimmee

Fisheating CreekFisheating Creek(Uncontrolled)(Uncontrolled)

& C-5& C-5

Fisheating CreekFisheating Creek(Uncontrolled)(Uncontrolled)

& C-5& C-5

Lake Okeechobee Inflows & OutflowsLake Okeechobee Inflows & Outflows

LakeLakeOkeechobeeOkeechobee

Nubbin SloughNubbin SloughNubbin SloughNubbin Slough

Taylor CrkTaylor CrkTaylor CrkTaylor Crk

C-41A, C-40C-41A, C-40& C-41& C-41C-41A, C-40C-41A, C-40& C-41& C-41

S-308S-308St Lucie may inflowSt Lucie may inflowif Lake is < 14.5if Lake is < 14.5

S-308S-308St Lucie may inflowSt Lucie may inflowif Lake is < 14.5if Lake is < 14.5

S-2 & S-3 S-2 & S-3 under large rainfallunder large rainfall may pump to Lakemay pump to Lake

S-2 & S-3 S-2 & S-3 under large rainfallunder large rainfall may pump to Lakemay pump to Lake

S-135S-135S-135S-135

InflowInflow capacitycapacity exceeds exceeds outflowoutflow capacity. capacity.

S-77S-77S-77S-77

S-354S-354S-354S-354

C-10C-10C-10C-10

S-351S-351S-351S-351

S-352S-352S-352S-352

Lake Okeechobee's drainage basin covers more than 4,600 square milesLake Okeechobee's drainage basin covers more than 4,600 square miles

80% East & 80% East & WestWest

20% South20% South

Flood Control

Water Shortage

Lake Okeechobee Lake Okeechobee Management Zones (Rule Curves)Management Zones (Rule Curves)

Potential Predictors of Lake Okeechobee Potential Predictors of Lake Okeechobee Net InflowNet Inflow

Antecedent Conditions of the Tributary BasinsAntecedent Conditions of the Tributary Basins

El Nino/La NinaEl Nino/La Nina

Atlantic Multidecadal OscillationAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation

Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

Atlantic Meridional ModeAtlantic Meridional Mode

Extent of the Atlantic Warm poolExtent of the Atlantic Warm pool

Various Scales of Solar ActivityVarious Scales of Solar Activity

Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook (LONINO)(LONINO)

Estimation of the change in lake stage Estimation of the change in lake stage

over the next 6 months (Seasonal over the next 6 months (Seasonal

Forecast) and 7-12 months (Multi-Forecast) and 7-12 months (Multi-

seasonal Forecast)seasonal Forecast)

Forecasts are part of WSE decision-Forecasts are part of WSE decision-

making processmaking process

Seasonal ForecastSeasonal Forecast Always 6-months in durationAlways 6-months in duration Methods:Methods:

For Development of WSE:For Development of WSE:• Artificial Neural Network ModelingArtificial Neural Network Modeling

For ApplicationFor Application• Croley’s methodCroley’s method• HSM ExperimentalHSM Experimental• AMO/ENSO SubsamplingAMO/ENSO Subsampling

CPC climate forecasts applied to Lake CPC climate forecasts applied to Lake Inflow time seriesInflow time series

Multi-Seasonal ForecastsMulti-Seasonal Forecasts Multi-season: Multi-season: Remainder of current season + next Remainder of current season + next

season. Duration:season. Duration:

For Development of WSE:For Development of WSE: Neural Network based seasonal forecasts + Neural Network based seasonal forecasts +

forecasts for the remaining months based on ENSO forecasts for the remaining months based on ENSO in dry season, and AMO/PDO in wet seasonin dry season, and AMO/PDO in wet season

ApplicationApplication CroleyCroley HSM ExperimentalHSM Experimental AMO/ENSO SubsamplingAMO/ENSO Subsampling

MayMay JuneJune JulyJuly AugAug SepSep OctOct NovNov DecDec JanJan FebFeb MarMar AprApr

1212 1111 1010 99 88 77 1212 1111 1010 99 88 77

Seasonal Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Prediction Comparison

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

LO

K N

et

Infl

ow

(ft

)

Very Wet Wet Normal Dry Observed

Croley Empirical ENSO AMO/ENSO A/E Antecedents

Seasonal Hit Percentage

Croley

Empirical

ENSO SS

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 1

32

(Next Six Months)

MultiSeasonal Hit Percentage

ENSO SS

Croley

Empirical

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 1

32

Hit Percentage - SeasonalDRY Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 4

8

Hit Percentage - SeasonalNORMAL Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 1

3Hit Percentage - Seasonal

WET Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 9

Hit Percentage - SeasonalVERY WET Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 6

2

Hit Percentage - MultiseasonalWET Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 2

8

Hit Percentage - MultiseasonalVERY WET Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 5

2

Hit Percentage - MultiseasonalDRY Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 3

5

Hit Percentage - MultiseasonalNORMAL Category

Croley

Empirical

ENSO

AMO/ENSO

AMO/ENSO w/ Antecedents

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Sa

mp

le S

ize

- 1

7

Multi-Objective Analysis for Climate Based Multi-Objective Analysis for Climate Based Operational GuidelinesOperational Guidelines

Estuaries

EstuariesW

ater

Sup

ply

Wat

er S

uppl

y

Flood

Flood

Protection

Protection

Lake OkeechobeeLake OkeechobeeLittoral ZoneLittoral Zone

E

verg

lade

s

Eve

rgla

des

Hyd

ro-p

atte

rn

Hyd

ro-p

atte

rn

Water Level BasedWater Level Based

Includes Climate Includes Climate Based Based