valuation report - gol
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Valuation Report SP-0116/14-01
GOL LINHAS AÉREAS
INTELIGENTES S.A.
Report SP-0116/14-01 1
REPORT: SP-0116/14-01 BASE DATE: March 31st, 2014
APPLICANT: VRG LINHAS AÉREAS S.A., hereinafter called GRUPO GOL.
Closely-held Corporation, with head office located at Praça Senador Salgado Filho, S/N, Térreo, Centro, in the City and
State of Rio de Janeiro, registered with the General Roster of Corporate Taxpayers (CNPJ) under No. 07.575.651/0001-
59.
OBJECT: GOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTES S.A., hereinafter called GOL.
Publicly-held Corporation, with head office located at Rua Tamoios, nº 246, Térreo, Jardim Aeroporto, in the City and
State of São Paulo, registered with the General Roster of Corporate Taxpayers (CNPJ) under No. 06.164.253/0001-87.
PURPOSE: Determine the economic value of the shares of GOL, based on the future profitability methodology, for the purpose of
capital increase with issuance of new shares, in compliance with Article 170, 1st paragraph of Law No. 6.404/76
(Corporate Law).
Report SP-0116/14-01 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
APSIS was appointed by GRUPO GOL to determine the economic value of the
shares of GOL, based on the future profitability methodology, for the
purpose of capital increase with issuance of new shares, in compliance with
Article 170, 1st paragraph of Law No. 6.404/76 (Corporate Law).
The future profitability methodology is based on a retrospective analysis,
scenario projections and discounted cash flows. The economic-financial
modeling begins with the definitions of the macroeconomic assumptions and
of the microeconomic assumptions such as airline ticket sales, flight
occupancy rate, average stage per flight, quantity of flights per day, number
of aircrafts, average quantity of seats per flight, operating costs and
investments undertaken by the company or business unit under assessment.
ESTIMATES
Based on GOL’s projected Net Cash Flow for 10 (ten) years, considering
perpetuity as of YEAR 11, these values were discounted to present value, by
applying a nominal discount rate of 12,2% p.a.
FINAL VALUE FOUND
The following table presents a summary of GOL’s economic value, on the
base date of March 31st, 2014:
expected rate of return 11.7% 12.2% 12.7%
perpetuity growth rate 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW 5,380,854 5,267,103 5,157,094
DISCOUNTED RESIDUAL VALUE 7,355,941 6,593,311 5,935,811
OPERATING VALUE OF GOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTES S.A. (R$ thousands) 12,736,795 11,860,414 11,092,905
NET INDEBTEDNESS (4,707,537) (4,707,537) (4,707,537)
NON-OPERATING ASSETS - - -
ECONOMIC VALUE OF GOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTES S.A. (R$ thousands) 8,029,258 7,152,877 6,385,368
TOTAL SHARES
ECONOMIC VALUE PER SHARE (R$) 29.02 25.85 23.08
* The calculated values do not include treasury shares.
276,714,601
ECONOMIC VALUE OF GOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTES S.A. (R$ thousands)
Report SP-0116/14-01 3
INDEX 1. INTRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4
2. PRINCIPLES AND QUALIFICATIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5
3. LIABILITY LIMITS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
4. GOL´s PROFILE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7
5. SECTOR ANALYSIS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10
6. ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12
7. ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL MODELING -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14
8. CONCLUSION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19
9. LIST OF ATTACHMENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
Report SP-0116/14-01 4
1. INTRODUCTION
APSIS CONSULTORIA EMPRESARIAL LTDA., hereinafter called APSIS, with head
office located at Rua da Assembleia, nº 35, 12th floor, Centro, in the City
and State of Rio de Janeiro, registered with the General Roster of Corporate
Taxpayers (CNPJ/MF) under No. 27.281.922/0001-70, was appointed by
GRUPO GOL to determine the economic value of the shares of GOL, based on
the future profitability methodology, for the purpose of capital increase with
issuance of new shares, in compliance with Article 170, 1st paragraph of Law
No. 6.404/76 (Corporate Law).
For the preparation of this report, we used data and information provided by
third parties in the form of documents and verbal interviews with the client.
The estimates used in this process are based on documents and information
which include, among others, the following:
Financial and accounting statements of GOL on the base date and of
previous years;
GOL’s multiannual projections/budgets; and
Reports from ABEAR and from other associations related to the
sector.
The APSIS team in charge of preparing this report comprises the following
professionals:
ANA CRISTINA FRANÇA DE SOUZA Vice-President (CREA/RJ 1991103043)
ANTONIO LUIZ FEIJÓ NICOLAU Director
EDUARDO DE CASTRO ROSSI Director (CREA/SP 5062320397)
JOÃO ARTHUR PAES DE MIRANDA SANTOS Project manager
LUIZ PAULO CESAR SILVEIRA Vice-President (CREA/RJ 1989100165 e CRC/RJ-118263/P-0)
MARCIA APARECIDA DE LUCCA CALMON Technical Director (CRC/SP-143169/O-4)
MÁRCIA MOREIRA FRAZÃO DA SILVA Director (CRC/RJ-106548/O-3)
RENATA POZZATO CARNEIRO MONTEIRO Vice-President
RICARDO DUARTE CARNEIRO MONTEIRO President (CREA/RJ 1975102453)
SERGIO FREITAS DE SOUZA Vice-President (CORECON/RJ 23521-0)
Report SP-0116/14-01 5
2. PRINCIPLES AND QUALIFICATIONS
The Report subject to the work that was itemized, calculated and specified, strictly complies with the fundamental principles described below:
The consultants do not have any direct or indirect interests in the
companies involved or in the operation, nor are there any other
relevant circumstances which may characterize a conflict of
interests.
APSIS’ professional fees are not in any way whatsoever subject to the
conclusions of this report.
To the best of the consultants’ knowledge and credit, the analyses,
opinions and conclusions expressed in this report are based on data,
diligence, research and surveys that are true and correct.
For the purposes of this report, one assumes that the information
received from third parties is correct, and that the sources thereof
are comprised in said report.
For projection purposes, we assume the inexistence of liens or
encumbrances of any nature, whether judicial or extrajudicial,
affecting the assets subject to the work in question, other than those
listed in this report.
The report presents all the limiting conditions imposed by the
adopted methodologies, which may affect the analyses, opinions and
conclusions comprised therein.
The report was prepared by APSIS and no one other than the
consultants themselves prepared the analyses and respective
conclusions.
APSIS assumes full liability over the matter of Appraisal Engineering,
including implicit appraisals, for the exercise of its honorable duties,
primarily established in the appropriate laws, codes or regulations.
The present Report complies with the specifications and criteria
determined by the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards
(ABNT - Associação Brasileira de Normas Técnicas), Uniform
Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) and the
International Valuation Standards Council (IVSC), in addition to the
requirements imposed by different agencies and regulations, such as:
CPC (Accounting Standards Committee), the Ministry of Treasury,
Central Bank, Bank of Brazil, CVM (Securities and Exchange
Commission), SUSEP (Superintendence of Private Insurance), Income
Tax Regulations (RIR), Brazilian Committee of Business Valuators
(CBAN), etc.
The controller and the managers of the companies involved did not
direct, limit, hinder or practice any acts whatsoever that have or
may have prevented the access, use or knowledge of data, goods,
documents or work methodologies relevant to the quality of the
conclusions herein.
Report SP-0116/14-01 6
3. LIABILITY LIMITS
In order to prepare this report, APSIS used historic data and
information audited by third parties, or not audited, and non-audited
projected data provided in writing or verbally by the company’s
management or obtained from the sources mentioned. Therefore,
APSIS has assumed that the data and information obtained for this
report are true, and, as such, does not have any liability with respect
to their reliability.
The scope of this work did not include audit of the financial
statements or revision of the works performed by its auditors. As
such, APSIS is not hereby expressing its opinion about the Applicant´s
financial statements.
We are not liable for occasional losses to the Applicant and its
subsidiaries, or to its partners, directors, creditors or to other
parties as a result of the use of data and information provided by the
company and comprised herein.
Our work has been developed solely to be used by the Applicants and
its partners, aiming at the previously described purpose. Therefore,
this Report shall not be published, circulated, reproduced, disclosed
or used for any other purpose other than the aforementioned one,
without a prior and written consent from APSIS.
The analyses and conclusions contained herein are based on several
premises, held on this date, of future operating projections, such as
prices, volumes, market shares, revenues, taxes, investments,
operating margins, etc. Therefore, the company's future operating
results may be different from any forecast or estimate contained in
this report, especially in the case of future knowledge of information
not available at the date of issue of this Report.
This analysis does not reflect events and their impacts occurred after
the date of issue of this Report.
APSIS is not responsible for direct and indirect losses or loss of profits
eventually resulting from improper use of this Report.
We emphasize that understanding the conclusion of this Report will
only be possible with a complete reading, including its attachments,
and any conclusions from partial readings may be incorrect or
misleading and should not be drawn.
Report SP-0116/14-01 7
4. GOL´s PROFILE
GOL was created in the year 2000, and
launched in the market the following year,
with the mission of popularizing and
democratizing airline transportation in Brazil
and in South America. Its strategy was to
offer reduced air fares, representing a
transport option accessible to all.
In 2004 the Company launched its first public offering in the Stock Markets of
São Paulo (Bovespa) and New York (NYSE). The year 2007 was marked by the
acquisition of Varig and, during 10 (ten) years (between 2001 and 2011), its
fleet grew 1130%.
The Company currently concentrates its sales online and has introduced the
concept of intelligent check-in through the internet.
GOL has over 16 thousand employees, 137 aircrafts, 65 bases (51 national
and 14 international) and performs 910 daily departures throughout the week
(data from Dec/13).
BRAZILIAN AIR TRANSPORT MARKET SHARE:
TRADEMARKS:
Furthermore, GOL holds alliances in code-share regimes, which allows a
customer with tickets issued by GOL to travel with different Airlines,
namely:
Report SP-0116/14-01 8
SERVICES:
GOL+ - The aircrafts GOL+ offer greater comfort and more
spaciousness on the Rio de Janeiro (SDU) – São Paulo (CGH) route.
Besides having the greatest offer of seats and receiving the best
ranking (A seal) established by the National Civil Aviation Agency
(ANAC), they are equipped with the most modern technology for
Boeing Sky Interior aircrafts. In addition, the aircrafts contain the
GOL+ Comfort seats, which offer 10 cm of more space between
seats, recline 50% more and also offer the middle seat blocked for
more privacy. Such seat may be purchased starting from R$ 30.00 or
free of charge for Smiles Diamond and Delta Elite clients.
VoeGol Mobile Phone Store – Includes the purchase of tickets and
check-in through mobile phones.
In-Flight Service – The In-Flight Service was created in order to offer
further options to GOL clients. The menu comprises a selection of
choices such as sandwiches, snacks, juices, beer, wine, and coffee,
among others. Payment is carried out during flights, by credit card or
national currency, for greater convenience. Note that the In-Flight
Service is offered only in flights with a minimum duration of 1 hour
and 15 minutes.
GOL Special Seats – Currently, two options of special seats are
offered, namely: “Special Seats Emergency Exit: seats located near
the airplane’s emergency exit, ensuring more comfort for the flight,
and “Special Seat with Empty Middle Seat”: the client may choose to
travel with the middle seat having been blocked, assuring that no
one will sit next to him and therefore assure more privacy. This
service is available for flights between Brasilia (BSB) and Rio de
Janeiro (SDU) and Vitoria (VIX) and Rio de Janeiro (SDU). Smiles
Diamond clients as well as passengers flying with Flexible Rates and
Smiles Any Day tickets don’t pay for the choice of Special Seats.
Transport between airports – Transport between airports offered to
GOL and Delta clients. In order to use it, clients must simply present
to the driver their boarding pass (printed or on their mobile phones)
or proof of purchase, together with an identification document.
Besides air conditioning, GOL’s buses also offers live TV and free
Wireless Internet access in order for clients to check-in online,
anticipate their flight or simply have fun using the internet. The
route is exclusive and with no stops in other stations.
Intelligent Check-in – Available on computers, smartphones, mobile
phones and totems; check-in without paper; quick baggage check.
VoeGol Store on Facebook – Includes the purchase of flights and
check-in through Facebook.
Comfort Class – An exclusive class that offers clients various benefits.
Before the flight, the client has priority check-in, differed baggage
allowance and access to the VIP room in Guarulhos (SP).
Furthermore, clients have a bonus of 50% in earning miles as well as
boarding priority. During the flights, clients are entitled to the
following benefits: more room between seats, blocked middle seats,
a distinguished in-flight service, magazines, exclusive carry-on
luggage compartment (BINS), exclusive bathroom and comfort kit
including toothpaste, toothbrush, dental floss, blankets and pillows.
Report SP-0116/14-01 9
It should be noted that Comfort Class is available only for flights that
depart from Guarulhos (GRU) or Galeão (GIG) and with destination in
Caracas (CCS), Punta Cana (PUJ), Aruba (AUA), Barbados (BGI), Santo
Domingo (SDQ), Miami (MIA), and Orlando (MCO)
Insurances – When purchasing the Travel Assistance, originated from
a partnership between GOL and Sul América, clients will be insured
in the cases of Accidental Death, Full Permanent Disability due to
Accident and Lost Baggage. When purchasing the ticket and choosing
the option of purchasing the “Travel Assistance Prize” clients are
also entitled to winning a prize of R$ 5,000.00 + 125,000 Smiles
miles.
Car Rental – A partnership between GOL and Localiza which offers
clients a 20% discount in renting any available category and an
automatic upgrade of a category A vehicle to a category C vehicle
(doors, air conditioning, power steering, automated windows and
locks).
Hotels – the partnership with Booking.com offers GOL clients special
deals for the available destinations. More comfort for the clients who
are able to plan their trip all in one website.
Smiles Program – GOL’s relationship program which offers more miles
after every flight, in addition to products, sales and exclusive
advantages to our most frequent clients.
Report SP-0116/14-01 10
5. SECTOR ANALYSIS
The aviation sector in Brazil has been going through deep structural
transformations and constant strategic changes by the players that operate
in the country, demonstrating a more mature market as a whole.
Currently the aviation sector in Brazil is disputed by four principal players:
TAM, GOL, Azul and Avianca. The graph below demonstrates the market
share distribution among these companies:
Source: Abear
In terms of demand, we can highlight the positive impact of the increase of
the average purchase power of the Brazilian population. During the last 12
years, class C was responsible for the increase of spending in the air travel
sector, as demonstrated by the following graph. The second graph shows the
total projection of passengers, according to ABEAR, which was of 98 million
in 2012 and will reach 211 million in the year 2020:
Source: Abear
Report SP-0116/14-01 11
Although the aviation sector demonstrates that there is still room to grow,
some structural factors present in Brazil, such as the lack of airports and the
precariousness of the existing airports may delay such growth.
The table below shows that most of the Brazilian airports have already been
operating at their maximum capacities. Besides this factor, investments in
construction and maintenance of airports are very slow, hindering the
increase of total flight offers in the country.
Source: Abear
Report SP-0116/14-01 12
6. ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES
INCOME APPROACH: CASH FLOW
This methodology defines the company’s profitability as its operating value,
equivalent to the discounted value of the future net cash flow. This flow
consists of net income after taxes plus non-cash items (depreciations and
amortizations) and deduction of investments in operating assets (working
capital, plants, installed capacity, etc.).
The projected period of the net cash flow is determined by considering the
time that the company will take to provide a stable operational activity,
i.e., without operational variations deemed relevant. The flow is then
brought to present value, using a discount rate which will reflect the risk
associated with the market, business and capital structure.
NET CASH FLOW
In order to calculate the net cash flow, we used the Invested Capital as a
measure of income, according to the table alongside, and based on the
theories and economic practices most commonly accepted by the market,
especially from the following works:
DAMODARAN, Aswath. Avaliação: Princípios e Prática. In: ______ (Autor) Finanças Corporativas: teoria e prática. 2ª Edição. Porto Alegre: Bookman, 2004. p. 611-642.
PRATT, Shannon P. Income Approach: Discounted Economic Income Methods. In: ______ (Autor) Valuing a Business: The Analysis and Appraisal of Closely Held Companies. 3ª Edição. EUA: Irwin Professional Publishing, 1996. p. 149-202.
CASH FLOW NET OF INVESTED CAPITAL
Profit before non-cash items, interest and taxes (EBITDA)
( - ) Non-cash items (depreciation and amortization)
( = ) Net Operating Profit before taxes (EBIT)
( - ) Income Tax and Social Contribution (IR/CSSL)
( = ) Net Operating Profit after taxes
( + ) Non-cash items (depreciation and amortization)
( = ) Gross cash flow
( - ) Capital Investments (CAPEX)
( + ) Other inflows
( - ) Other outflows
( - ) Working capital variation
( = ) Net operating cash flow
RESIDUAL VALUE
Perpetuity is considered after the end of the projected period, which
contemplates all the flows to be generated after the last projection year and
their respective growths. The company’s residual value (perpetuity) is
usually estimated by using the constant growth model. This model assumes
that, after the end of the projected period, net income will have constant
perpetual growth. It also calculates the value of perpetuity in the last year
of the projected period through the geometric progression model, carrying
it, next, to the first projection year.
Report SP-0116/14-01 13
DISCOUNT RATE
The discount rate to be used to calculate the present value of the earnings
determined in the projected cash flow represents the minimum profitability
required by investors, considering that the company will be financed partly
by equity, which will demand a higher profitability than that obtained in a
standard risk investment, and partly by debt capital.
Such rate is calculated based on the WACC - Weighted Average Cost of
Capital methodology, according to which the cost of capital is determined by
the weighted average of the economic value of the capital structure
components (equity and debt capital), described next.
The risk-free rates are usually based on the U.S. Treasury bonds. For the cost
of equity capital, 20-year securities are used, a term that most accurately
reflects the concept of a company´s continuity. For the cost of debt capital,
10-year securities are considered, since they more accurately reflect the
term in which a company is able to raise funds in the international market.
COMPANY VALUE
The net cash flow of Invested Capital is generated by the company’s overall
operation, available to all financing entities, shareholders and other
investors. Therefore, for determining the value of shareholders, a deduction
of the general indebtedness to third parties is required.
Another necessary adjustment is the inclusion of non-operating assets, i.e.,
those that are not consolidated in the company’s operational activities,
which are added to the operating value found.
Cost of Equity Re = Rf + beta*(Rm – Rf) + Rp + Rs
Rf Risk-free rate – based on the annual interest rate of the U.S. Treasury for 20-year securities, considering long-term U.S. inflation.
Rm Market Risk – measures the value of a fully diversified portfolio of shares for a period of 20 years.
Rp Country Risk – represents the risk of investing in an asset in that country compared to a similar investment in a country considered safe.
Rs Premium risk for size – measures how much the size of the company affects its risk level.
Beta Adjusts the market risk to the risk of a specific sector.
Levered Beta Adjusts the sector’s beta to the company’s risk.
Cost of Debt Rd = Rf (*) + alfa + Rp
Rf (*) Risk-free rate – based on the annual interest rate of the U.S. Treasury for 10-year securities, considering U.S. inflation.
Alfa Specific risk – represents the risk of investing in the Company under assessment.
Discount Rate WACC = (Re x We) + Rd (1 –t) x Wd
Re = Cost of equity capital.
Rd = Cost of debt capital.
We = Percentage of equity capital in the capital structure.
Wd = Percentage of debt capital in the capital structure.
T = Effective income tax and social contribution rate of the Company.
Report SP-0116/14-01 14
7. ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL MODELING
For the purposes of this report, the future profitability methodology was
applied to determine the economic value of GOL.
The economic-financial modeling of GOL was conducted so as to demonstrate
the Company’s ability to generate cash within the time-frame considered,
using basically the aforementioned information as basis.
Projections were made for the period deemed necessary, under full
operational and administrative conditions, and based on the following
assumptions:
The methodology is based on the generation of Discounted Free Cash
Flow;
To determine the company’s value, a period of 10 (ten) years was
considered;
The Free Cash Flow was analytically projected for a 10 (ten) year
period, from 2014 through 2024, and perpetuity was considered as of
YEAR 11 (nominal growth of 4,5%);
For the annual period, the fiscal year from April 1st through March
31st was considered;
For calculating present value, the mid-year convention was
considered;
The flow was projected based on constant currency and the present
value was calculated on a nominal discount rate (considering
inflation);
Unless otherwise indicated, figures were expressed in thousands of
Reais; and
In order to achieve the forecasted results for the company’s future
fiscal years, the consolidated balance sheet dated March 31st, 2014
(see Attachments), was used as a starting balance.
The Attachments presents the economic-financial modeling in detail, whose
operating projections were based on the company’s historical performance.
Report SP-0116/14-01 15
WORKING CAPITAL
Terms projected based on the account balances of GOL’s balance sheet,
ended on March 31st, 2014, and management information from the company.
Working Capital variation was calculated considering the parameters below,
as of April, 2014:
CURRENT ASSETS:
USAGE No. OF DAYS ORIGIN
Cash and Cash Equivalents 65 NOR
Accounts Receivables 14 NOR
Inventories 6 COGS + OE
Taxes Recoverable 4 NOR
Anticipated Expenses 4 COGS + OE
Other Credits and Values 3 NOR
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
SOURCES No. OF DAYS ORIGIN
Suppliers 21 COGS + OE
Labor Liabilities 10 COGS + OE
Tax Liabilities 4 COGS + OE
Airport Taxes and Fees 11 COGS + OE
Transportation to be Executed 43 NOR
Mileage Program 7 NOR
Clients’ Advanced Payments 6 COGS + OE
Provisions 8 COGS + OE
Other Liabilities 3 COGS + OE
DEPRECIATION
We considered a depreciation rate of 8.8% p.a. on the Fixed Assets
comprised in the Balance Sheet on the base date, and on new investments.
INVESTMENTS
A total investment of R$ 6,973,198 thousand was considered, maintaining
the Fixed Assets for the entire projective period, considering the
depreciation of the current fixed assets adjusted by inflation.
DETERMINING THE DISCOUNT RATE
The discount rate is calculated through the WACC - Weighted Average Cost
of Capital method, a model in which the cost of capital is determined by the
weighted average of the market value of the capital structure components
(equity and debt capital).
The parameter values used for calculating the discount rate are provided in
the Attachments of this Report. The main sources of these parameters have
been highlighted below:
Risk-free rate (cost of net equity): Corresponds to the yield, on
03/31/2014, of the 20-year U.S. T-Bond (Federal Reserve),
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domesticfinance/debtmanagement/i
nterest-rate/yield_historical.shtml;
Beta d: equivalent to the area’s average beta, researched on the
Bloomberg database, program provided by Bloomberg with stock
market data and financial information. The data provided by
Bloomberg consists of the levered beta of different companies,
Report SP-0116/14-01 16
according to their respective capital structures. We unlevered the
betas relative to each company, considering the respective capital
structures. This way, we found the respective gross betas. We
calculated the average of the gross betas found, in order to then
leverage it according to the capital structure of the company in
question. This calculation is necessary in order to correct any
possible distortions in calculating beta generated by the differences
in capital structure of each company;
Risk Premium: corresponds to the Spread between SP500 and the 20-
year U.S. T-Bond, according to Ibbotson 2014, publication with long-
term market analysis (shares, inflation, etc.). Source: 2014 Ibbotson
SBBI Valuation Yearbook: Appendix C, Table C-1. EUA: Morningstar,
2014;
Size Premium: corresponds to the risk premium according to the
company´s size, considering the U.S. stock market. Source: 2014
Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook: Appendix C, Table C-1. EUA:
Morningstar, 2014;
Brazil Risk: Portal Brasil (03/31/2014), website:
http://www.portalbrasil.net/indices_dolar.htm;
Risk-free rate (cost of the debt): Corresponds to the yield, on
03/31/2014, of the -year U.S. T-Bond (Federal Reserve), website:
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-
management/interest-rate/yield_historical.shtml;
Specific Risk (Alfa): The model for formation of the cost of debt (Rd)
is performed “from back to front”, in order to avoid distortions in
the application of models developed for mature markets (such as
the U.S. market) in the young Brazilian market. The first step is to
determine the cost of funding for the sector under assessment or for
the Company, in case its size allows a distinguished treatment by
financial institutions. In the case of GOL, we applied a nominal cost
of funding of 7.88% p.a.; and
Utilization of U.S. projected inflation of 2.0% per year.
Finally, with the parameters used for the calculation, we reached a nominal
discount rate of 12.2% p.a.
CALCULATION OF OPERATING VALUE
Based on the operating cash flow projected for the next 10 (ten) years and
the Company’s residual value since then (assuming a perpetuity growth rate
of 4.5%), we discounted these figures at present value using the nominal
discount rate described above.
It is important to observe that the results of the Company’s future hedge
operations were not taken into account, since the achievement of profit
with this type of operation is not part of the company’s core business.
NON-OPERATING ASSETS
Non-operating assets were not considered for this assessment.
Report SP-0116/14-01 17
INDEBTEDNESS ANALYSIS
A net indebtedness of R$ 4,707,537 thousand was considered on the base
date, according to the following chart:
Financial Investments 488,678
Restricted Cash 7
Profits with operations with derivatives 9,524
Restricted Cash (Long Term) 208,193
Other credits and values 4,741
Anticipated expenses 24,456
Linked Deposits 878,979
Loans and Financing 479,586
Liabilities with derivatives operations 27,036
Loans and Financing 4,989,173
Provisions 276,197
Mileage Program 469,981
Clients´advancements 402
Tax Liabilities 62,131
Other liabilities 17,609
TOTAL (4,707,537)
NET INDEBTEDNESS (R$ Thousands)
Report SP-0116/14-01 18
ECONOMIC VALUE OF GOL
Summarizing the aforementioned items, further detailed in the Attachments, we reached the following values:
expected rate of return 11.7% 12.2% 12.7%
perpetuity growth rate 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW 5,380,854 5,267,103 5,157,094
DISCOUNTED RESIDUAL VALUE 7,355,941 6,593,311 5,935,811
OPERATING VALUE OF GOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTES S.A. (R$ thousands) 12,736,795 11,860,414 11,092,905
NET INDEBTEDNESS (4,707,537) (4,707,537) (4,707,537)
NON-OPERATING ASSETS - - -
ECONOMIC VALUE OF GOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTES S.A. (R$ thousands) 8,029,258 7,152,877 6,385,368
TOTAL SHARES
ECONOMIC VALUE PER SHARE (R$) 29.02 25.85 23.08
* The calculated values do not include treasury shares.
276,714,601
ECONOMIC VALUE OF GOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTES S.A. (R$ thousands)
Report SP-0116/14-01 19
8. CONCLUSION
In light of the examinations of the above mentioned documents and based on APSIS´ studies, the experts concluded that the economic value per share of GOL is
situated within the range between R$ 23.08 (twenty-three reais and eight centavos) and R$ R$ 29.02 (twenty-nine reais and two centavos).
Appraisal report SP-0116/14-01 was prepared in the form of a Digital Report (electronic document in Portable Document Format - PDF), with the digital
certification of its technical officials and printed by APSIS, composed of 20 (twenty) pages typed on one side and 03 (three) attachments. APSIS Consultoria
Empresarial Ltda., CREA/RJ 1982200620 and CORECON/RJ RF/02052, a company specialized in asset valuation, legally represented hereunder by its directors,
makes itself available to provide any further clarifications that may be required.
Rio de Janeiro, May 23th, 2014.
Director
Project Manager
Report SP-0116/14-01 20
9. LIST OF ATTACHMENTS
1. VALUATION CALCULATIONS
2. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS
3. GLOSSARY AND APSIS´PROFILE
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ENERGIA SUSTENTÁVEL DO BRASILEMBRATEL
ENERGISAESTÁCIO PARTICIPAÇÕESESTALEIRO ALIANÇAETERNITFEMSA BRASILFGV - FUNDAÇÃO GETÚLIO VARGASFGV – PROJETOSFOZ DO BRASILFRESH START BAKERIES (EUA)GAFISAGENERAL ELETRIC DO BRASIL (GE) GERDAUGETNETGOL LINHAS AÉREAS INTELIGENTESGOUVÊA VIEIRA ADVOGADOS
GP INVESTIMENTOSHYPERMARCASIDEIASNETINBRANDS IOCHPE MAXIONJBSKRAFT FOODSL’ORÉALLAFARGELAVAZZALEADER MAGAZINELIGHTLIQUIGÁSLOBO & IBEAS ADVOGADOSLOJAS AMERICANASLORINVEST (LORENTZEN)MACHADO, MEYER, SENDACZ E OPICE ADVOGADOSMAGNESITAMARFRIGMATTOS FILHO ADVOGADOSMG A.A DE INVESTIMENTOSMICHELINMULTIPLANOI S.A.OWENS ILLINOIS AMERICA LATINAPÁTRIA INVESTIMENTOSPEIXE URBANOPETROBRÁSPINHEIRO GUIMARÃES ADVOGADOSPINHEIRO NETO ADVOGADOSPROCTER & GAMBLEPSA PEUGEOT CITROENQUATTORREPSOL YPFREXAMRH MEDRIO BRAVOROTSCHILD & SONSSEARASHELLSHV SOUZA, CESCON, BARRIEU E FLESCH ADVOGADOSTAURUSTELOS FUNDAÇÃO EMBRATELTIM BRASILTOTVSTRENCH, ROSSI E WATANABE ADVOGADOSULHÔA CANTO, REZENDE E GUERRA ADVOGADOSULTRAPARUNIMED VALEVEIRANO ADVOGADOSVEREMONTE
VIVOVOTORANTIMW. TORREWHEATON DO BRASILWHITE MARTINSXP INVESTIMENTOS
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