valuengine weekly: industrial procducts, yahoo!, market valuation, and valuengine capital

8/19/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Industrial Procducts, Yahoo!, Market Valuation, and ValuEngine Capital

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March 11, 2016

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VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 37!7" o# ourstocks ass$%ned a valuat$on and &'(3" o# t)ose e*u$t$es are calculated to+e overvalued +, !'" or more T)ree sectors are calculated to +eovervalued

MARKET OVERVIEW

Inde- .tarted week /r$da, A0 C)an%e C)an%e " ,td

12IA %&%"( %)%)"* !''& &!&" 4&3&"

NA.1A5 +&," +)(*"*( 3!66 '(" 47"

8U..9LL !''' %,%"( %,))".( 437 4'3" 4&6"

.; '' %&"%% (,%+") &


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SECTOR OVERVIEW

.ector C)an%e 0T1 =T1 Valuat$on Last &!408eturn

;>98at$o

Aerospace -,"&+/ (".*/ -.",*/ .")./ undervalued -%,"*)/ %)")+

Auto4T$res4Trucks -%",/ )"(/ -*"*./ %%")/ undervalued -(,"./ %(",+

?as$c 0ater$als ,".+/ "*+/ %("&,/ *")/ overvalued -+"(,/ (&"+

?us$ness .erv$ces -%"*/ ("(%/ -*"*+/ ."./ undervalued -%("(*/ (%"%)

Computer and Tec)nolo%, -,".*/ ("+/ ,"&+/ +"))/ undervalued -")/ (.".

Construct$on -%"./ *"&,/ -%"),/ %%"&/ undervalued -&"(/ %".)

Consumer 1$scret$onar, ,",(/ *".+/ -,"&)/ &"&./ undervalued -",+/ (+

Consumer .taples -,"*/ ("./ %"+*/ &"()/ overvalued %"**/ (*"%

/$nance -,"(,/ *"*+/ -+"(,/ &"+/ undervalued -)"**/ %."%)

Industr$al ;roducts -,"&&/ .",*/ ,"%/ ("*/ undervalued -%*"(%/ %)".

0ed$cal -,"*/ ("./ -%%"&/ %."**/ undervalued -(+"/ (."&

0ult$4.ector Con%lomerates -%",&/ ."&(/ -,"*/ ,"+,/ undervalued -%."*+/ %".

O$ls49ner%, -%",./ %("(*/ %"&/ %,"*(/ undervalued -*.")+/ (%"&

8eta$l4W)olesale -,"+./ *",)/ -,")*/ )"./ undervalued -%%"&)/ (("(

Transportat$on -,"&(/ +"(/ -%")&/ %*"./ undervalued -(*"/ %(".&

Ut$l$t$es ,"(%/ (")/ *"&&/ )")/ overvalued -,"./ (*"*

Sector Talk—Indutr!al "roductBelow, we present the latest data on leading Industrial Products Sector stocks

from our ;ro#ess$onal .tock Anal,s$s .erv$ce We applied some basic liquidity

criteria--share price greater than $ and a!erage daily !olume in e"cess of #kshares% We ha!e been following the sector closely of late because it has beencorrelated so tightly to o!erall equity price mo!es%

Top4/$ve Industr$al ;roducts .ector .tocks44.)ort4Term /orecast 8eturns

T$cker Compan, Name 0arket ;r$ce Valuat$on@" Last &!40on

8etn@"?8.. 012341 356 718 (+")+ 9:4 &+"%)/

ACCO 4662 3;498< 6= )" %".%/ )"/

HOLI 7211>< 4?T2@T %" -%)")/ "&/

WO8 W2;T7I90T29 I98 **"(& &"*/ *%"*/

8. ;E1I496E


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Top4/$ve Industr$al ;roducts .ector .tocks44Lon%4Term /orecast 8eturns

T$cker Compan, Name 0arket ;r$ce Valuat$on Last &!40 8etrn

?8.. 012341 356 718 (+")+ 9:4 &+"%)/

ACCO 4662 3;498< 6= )" %".%/ )"/

HOLI 7211>< 4?T2@T %" -%)")/ "&/

WO8 W2;T7I90T29 I98 **"(& &"*/ *%"*/

8. ;E1I496E ;E62VE;> ". (",,/ (+"*&/

T. TE94;I<


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#ree $o%nload &or Reader (s a 0onus to our Free Weekly #ewsletter su0scri0ers,

we are offering a F.EE $W#&$( of one of our Stock .eports

&ahoo' Inc%(&)**+ is a global Internet communications, commerce and media

company that offers a comprehensi!e branded network of ser!ices% s one of the firstonline na!igational guides to the World Wide Web, &ahoo' is one of the leadingguides in terms of traffic, ad!ertising, and household and business user reach% he

company also pro!ides online business and enterprise ser!ices designed to enhancethe producti!ity and Web presence of &ahoo'.s clients%

/alu0ngine continues its S011 recommendation on &)**' I23 for 4#5--#%

Based on the information we ha!e gathered and our resulting research, we feel that

&)**' I23 has the probability to 62708P089*8: a!erage market performance forthe ne"t year% he company e"hibits 6283I/0 Price Sales 8atio and P;0 8atio%

.ead our 1omplete etailed Valuation .eport on -2$$ H989

Valu9n%$ne /orecast

Target

Price*

0"pected8eturn

1!onth "#$%& -%


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Valuat$on 8ank$n%s

-aluation ($#. overvalue/ -aluation Ran023 >

1! 4orecast Return '$1. 1! 4orecast Return Ran0 4#1#! Return #"$'&. !o5entu5 Ran0 23 >

6har7e Ratio '$+ 6har7e Ratio Ran023 A@

() 8vg 8nnual Return 1"$#. () 8vg 8nnual Rtn Ran0 A?

-olatility #$#+. -olatility Ran023 5

E97ecte/ EP6 :rowth +$'%. EP6 :rowth Ran023 @5

!ar0et Ca7 billions3 "1$'& 6i;e Ran0 ?@

Trailing P


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We now calculate that @%4@= of the stocks we can assign a !aluation are

o!er!alued and #%?= of those stocks are o!er!alued by 4= or more% hesenumbers ha!e reco!ered a bit along with the market rally since the earlierCunpleasantnessC of 4#5% We are now showing stocks that ha!e reco!ered in !alue,

are less cheap than last month, and also ho!ering !ery close to CnormalC range--between , 7*W, and 2S7D+%

We ha!e been in a se!en-year up market--almost the entirety of the *bamaadministration--and thus we ha!e a rally that is long-in-the-tooth despite a continuingdrumbeat of decent news from the 6S economy--labor market, housing, autos, etc%

he challenge has come from elsewhere as the 3hinese stock carnage and

de!aluation, along with ongoing problems in 0urope, chaos for commodities--especially oil--etc% ha!e battered markets recently% Because of these e"ternal factors,we still belie!e that the 9ed mo!e to raise interest rates was premature at best% 6S

growth rates are anemic and the labor market still hasn.t pro!ided the sort of wagegains that are to be e"pected with a full--and fair--reco!ery% We hope that the 9edmight pay attention to more of its two-part mandate by letting unemployment slip

enough to boost wages for 6S workers% We think this would help to further bolster the

economy despite the global uncertainties%

In case you hadn.t noticed, the 6S is in a presidential election cycle, which is inthe past has correlated to a decent year for stocks% We find that any demands for

additional austerity on the part of some right-wing candidates would only damagethe 6S reco!ery% 9rom the left, we note that one candidate is widely supported byWall St%-- which is hardly a harbinger of damaging policies for in!estors% *n the other

hand, the long-shot 7emocrat promises a radically different approach, which willcertainly take a bite out of the financial sector--if implemented%

In any case, we remain stunned at Eust how wrong the pundits had it during thelast administrati!e change, when screams of CsocialismC and warnings of total

economic collapse were the norm% s the long-term !aluation chart below illustrates,we ha!e witnessed a remarkable market since the de!ilish SP> intra day low of 555on :arch ?, 4?%


7/9

he chart below tracks the !aluation metrics from :arch 4#>% It shows le!els ine"cess of


8/9

his chart shows o!erall uni!erse under and o!er !aluation in e"cess of from :arch 4@G

ENOT9: T$me .cale Compressed ;r$or to !'&&

ValuEn.!ne Ca/!tal I o% Autotrad!n. Our

Strate.!e

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sophisticated stock !aluation model that was first de!eloped by/alu0ngine.s academic research team% It utilies a three factor approachHfundamental !ariables such as a company.s trailing #4-month 0arnings-Per-

Share (0PS+, the analyst consensus estimate of the company.s future #4-month 0PS, and the -year reasury yield are all used to create a more

http://www.valuengine.com/images/newsletter/weekly/160310lngvalchrt.png


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accurate reflection of a company.s fair !alue% total of ele!en additionalfirm specific !ariables are also used% he /alu0ngine /iew portfolio isconstructed by integrating both our ggressi!e JrowthKbased on the

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valuengine weekly: industrial procducts, yahoo!, market valuation, and valuengine capital

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