values, trends, and the arab springvalues, trends, and the arab spring mansoor moaddel (pi) arland...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Values, Trends, and the Arab Spring
Mansoor Moaddel (PI)
Arland Thornton (Co-PI)Arland Thornton (Co-PI)
Stuart Karabenick
Linda Young-DeMarco
Julie de Jong
We thank the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation, & the Ford Foundation for their support.
![Page 2: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview
• Between the decline of the liberal age in 1940s-50s and the Arab
Spring, the Arab world experienced the upsurge of two major
cultural movements:
• Pan-Arab nationalism
• Islamic fundamentalism.
• The Arab Spring is a departure from extremism:
• Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity
• No Arab political unity & decline in the political significance of the army
• The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool
• A shift in people’s political and cultural values
• Who participated in the Arab Spring: The case of Egypt?
![Page 3: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Methodology
• Survey data available
• Collected in face-to-face interviews using paper-and-pencil instruments
• Nationally representative samples using PPS
Sample size Dates collected Oversampling Response rate
Egypt 3,496 June-Aug 2011 Coptic Christians 93%
• Survey data pending
• Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey
Egypt 1,677 Jan 2012 None
Iraq 3,000 Jan-Feb 2011 None 61%
Lebanon 3,034 March-July 2011 Druze 88%
Saudi Arabia 2,005 Jan-Feb 2011 Shi’a Muslims 73%
![Page 4: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Methodology• Sample dispositions
Egypt
(2011)
Egypt
(2012
Iraq Lebanon Saudi
Arabia
Male 49% 52% 53% 59% 50%
University education 15% 15% 13% 28% 15%
Average age 38 40 36 35 34Average age 38 40 36 35 34
Religion: Not asked
Sunni* 40% 23% 75%
Shi’a* 31% 33% 25%
Druze 6%
Muslim (no sect spec) 86% 29%
Christian 14% 0.4% 26%
*Muslim sect was not reported in Saudi Arabia but 25% of respondents were from a
predominantly Shi’a city, and 75% were from predominantly Sunni cities
![Page 5: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring:
Movements for democracy & economic prosperity
59%
51%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% r
ep
ort
ing
ma
in r
ea
son
fo
r th
e A
rab
Sp
rin
g
25%
9%
2% 2% 3%
15%
9% 10% 9%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Freedom &
democracy
Economic
equality &
prosperity
Islamic
government
Counter
Western
influence
Part of a
Western
conspiracy
Arab unity
% r
ep
ort
ing
ma
in r
ea
son
fo
r
Egypt Lebanon
![Page 6: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
% Relying “A great deal” or “Somewhat” on Satellite TV,
Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information
49%
69%
74%
62%
49%50%
60%
70%
80%
14% 14%
10%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia
Satellite TV Internet Mobile
![Page 7: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Trends in Values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and Saudis
National Identity
Which one of the following best describes you?
1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all
2. I am a Muslim, above all
3. I am an Arab, above all
4. I am a Kurd, above all
5. Other
![Page 8: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
National Identity:
Egyptian Muslims
81%
50% 48%
56%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
8%
1%
48%
2%
41%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Above all, I am Egyptian Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab
2001 2011 2012
![Page 9: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
56%59%
63%
57%
40%
50%
60%
70%
National Identity:
Iraq
23%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
% Above all, I am Iraqi
![Page 10: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
National Identity:
Saudi Arabia
75%
46%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
17%
9%
46% 44%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Above all, I am Saudi Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab
2003 2011
![Page 11: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Trends in Values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and SaudisReligion & Politics
1.Wishes of the people vs. Shari'a law
2.Characteristics of politicians
3.Secular politics3.Secular politics
4.Forms of government
![Page 12: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Attitudes toward Secular Politics:
People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a
(Forced choice, 2011)
72%
82%88%
56%
44%50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
28%
18%12%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
A good govt implements only the law
of the shari'a
A good govt makes laws according to
people's wishes
Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
![Page 13: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Attitudes toward Secular Politics
Which is better in a politician?
(Forced choice, 2011)
78%81%
86%
43%
58%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
22%19%
14%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Strong religious beliefs Strong commitment to national
interests
Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
![Page 14: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Egyptian Muslims:
People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a
48%
31%30%
62%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
A good government implements only
the shari'a law
(% strongly agree)
A good government makes laws
according to the people's wishes
(% strongly agree)
2000 2011
![Page 15: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Egyptian Muslims: Attitudes toward secular politics
% Strongly agree/Agree
49%
91%
57%
93%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Egypt would be better if religion
and politics were separated
Democracy may have problems
but it's better than other forms
of govt
2011
2012
![Page 16: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Iraq: Attitudes toward secular politics
% Strongly agree/Agree that Iraq would be a better
place if religion and politics are separated
53%
63%
69%
76%
69%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
![Page 17: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a
& in trust of religious institutions
69%
84%
46%50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
31%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a great
deal
2003 2011
![Page 18: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Egyptian Muslims: Democracy vs. Strong head
of gov’t (% Very good)
68%
79%84%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2%
9%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Democratic political system Strong head of government
2001 2008 2011
![Page 19: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Iraq: % Strongly agree with different forms of
government
59%
55%53%
40%
50%
60%
70%
30%
11%
5%
22%
11%
6%
15%12%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Democracy Islamic government Strong head of
government
Army rule
2004 Apr-06 2011
![Page 20: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of
government (% Strongly agree/Agree)
58%
71%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2003 2011
![Page 21: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Trends in Values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and SaudisAttitudes toward gender equality
1. A wife must always obey her husband.
2. Men make better political leaders
than women do.than women do.
3. University education is more important for
boys than it is for girls.
![Page 22: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for
gender inequality (% Strongly agree)
47%
55%
68%
60%
73%
60%
50%
60%
70%
80%
47%
16%21%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Wife must always obey her
husband
Men make better political
leaders
University education is more
important for boys
2000 2011 2012
![Page 23: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality
(% Strongly agree)
64%
71%
63%
69%
42%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
29%25%
33%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
A wife should always obey
her husband
Men make better political
leaders
University education is more
important for boys
2004 2006 2011
![Page 24: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
53%
61%
44% 44%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender
inequality (% Strongly agree)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Men make better political leaders A wife must always obey her husband
2003 2011
![Page 25: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Participation in Demonstrations
against the Mubarak Regime
among Egyptian Muslims in 2011
![Page 26: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Egyptian Muslims:
Measure of Participation• On the scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating minimum to
none participation and 10 the utmost participation,
where do you put the extent of your participation on this
scale?Participation % Participating
1 (Minimum to none) 60.1%1 (Minimum to none) 60.1%
2 6.4%
3 5.5%
4 5.3%
5 4.9%
6 4.3%
7 5.5%
8 4.6%
9 1.7%
10 (Utmost) 1.9%
N 3005
Mean (standard deviation) 2.7 (2.56)
![Page 27: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of participationCorrelation coefficients
Demographics
Male .152**
Unmarried .115**
Formative years under Mubarak .089**
Employed .138**
SES .212**
Urban area .162**
Organizational membership factor
Religious/Political/Charitable membership .008Religious/Political/Charitable membership .008
Attitudes toward government
Trust in government -.110**
Rating of government -.057**
Sources of information
Radio .066**
Domestic TV .027
Foreign satellite TV .058**
Newspaper .212**
Internet .182**
Mobile .070**
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
![Page 28: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Correlation coefficients continued
Gender segregation
Gender mixing doesn’t lead to moral decay .039
Liberalism factor
Gender equality/Social individualism/Secular politics .140**
Religiosity
Mosque/Church attendance .114**
Frequency of prayer -.001
Egyptian Muslims: Correlations of participation
(continued)
Frequency of prayer -.001
Identify as religious person -.049*
Importance of God in life -.042
Morality factor
Stealing/Violence/Telling lies .244**
Social-Psychological issues
Perceived control .103**
Insecurity .112**
Free will .205**
Attitudes toward the West
Cultural invasion by the West .006
Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors .152**
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
![Page 29: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation
OLS Regression
Demographics
Male .092**
Unmarried .049*
Formative years under Mubarak .052*
Employed .026
SES .054*
Urban area .095**Urban area .095**
Organizational membership factor
Religious/Political/Charitable membership -.018
Attitudes toward government
Trust in government -.035
Rating of government -.016
Sources of information
Radio .035
Domestic TV .018
Foreign satellite TV -.011
Newspaper .122**
Internet/Mobile .032** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); * Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
![Page 30: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
OLS Regression continued
Gender segregation
Gender mixing doesn’t lead to moral decay .041*
Liberalism factor
Gender equality/Social individualism/Secular politics .058**
Religiosity
Mosque/Church attendance .016
Frequency of prayer .008
Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation
(continued)
Frequency of prayer .008
Identify as religious person .013
Importance of God in life -.035
Morality factor
Stealing/Violence/Telling lies .219**
Social-Psychological issues
Perceived control .092**
Insecurity .111**
Free will .143**
Attitudes toward the West
Cultural invasion by the West -.016
Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors .065**
Adjusted R2 .210
** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); * Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
![Page 31: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Summary
1. Increase in national identity
2. Decline in support for the shari’a
3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)
4. Predictors of participation in the Arab Spring:
(1) Male, single, formative years under
Mubarak, urban resident, higher SECMubarak, urban resident, higher SEC
(2) Newspaper readers (Internet users)
(3) More liberal, moral, higher perceived-
control, free will, insecure
(4) Less xenophobic
![Page 32: Values, Trends, and the Arab SpringValues, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co -PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042400/5f0f3c537e708231d4432871/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Thank you!Mansoor Moaddel (PI)
Arland Thornton (Co-PI)Arland Thornton (Co-PI)
Stuart Karabenick
Linda Young-DeMarco
Julie de Jong