valuing nature: incorporating ecosystem services …...summary • spatially explicit analysis of...
TRANSCRIPT
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Valuing Nature:
Incorporating Ecosystem Services
Into Decision Making
Steve Polasky University of Minnesota
& Natural Capital Project
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Introduction
• Prior to the 1930s there were was no systematic
accounting of the state of the economy
• First estimates of national income in the 1930s
and measure of measure of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in 1940s
• First national income accounts were published in
1947
• Provided much clearer picture of the state of the
economy
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Need for new measures
• GDP was designed
for a specific purpose:
to measure flow of
activity in the
economy
• GDP is NOT a
measure of welfare or
a measure of
sustainability
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Getting back to nature
• The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005): Ecosystems and biodiversity are essential for human well-being
• Notion of “ecosystem services”
• But most ecosystem services do not go through markets and do not show up in economic accounts
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Clouded vision
• We lack the right set
of measures and
accounts to judge the
full consequences of
our actions
• Distorted views leads
to distorted decisions
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Accounting for ecosystem services: provide a clearer view of the full picture
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Introduction
• How can we “mainstream” ecosystem
services?
• Factor ecosystem services into everyday
decisions by individuals, businesses and
governments
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Three main tasks
1. Understanding the PROVISION
2. Understanding the VALUE
3. Create incentives for sustainable
provision: POLICY
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(1) Incentives
(2) Actions
Ecological
production
functions
A research agenda for ecosystem services
(6) Valuation
(3) Non-
anthropocentric
approaches
Other
considerations
Benefits
and costs
Decisions by firms
and individuals
Policy
decisions
Ecosystems
Ecosystem
services
(7) Economic
efficiency
(5) Biophysical
tradeoffs
(4)
Polasky & Segerson Annual Review of Resource Economics 1: 409-434.
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Need for evidence and
implementation
• Moving beyond the MA
• How can we provide evidence of the value of ecosystems and biodiversity?
• How can we “mainstream” the value of nature?
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Methods to mainstream ecosystem
services
• Approaches to
mapping and valuing
ecosystem services:
Kareiva et al. 2011.
Oxford University
Press.
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“InVEST”
Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem
Services and Tradeoffs
http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/InVEST.html Frontiers of Ecology
and Environment
Feb 2009
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Economic valuation
Vertical Lightning At Sunset" by Christian Meyn
FreeDigitalPhotos.net
$
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Arguments against valuation
• Putting dollar values on nature is controversial and some would say misguided
• McCauley 2006 “Selling out on nature” Nature 443: 27-28
• “…ecosystem services are rapidly assuming an importance in discussions on conservation that is far out of proportion to their actual utility.”
• “Nature has an intrinsic value that makes it priceless, and that is reason enough to protect it.”
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Valuation and/or
intrinsic value
• My view: valuing nature in monetary terms is
not always essential and doing so does not
exclude ethical arguments
– These are complementary approaches not substitute
approaches
• Pragmatic: most people care (to some degree)
about nature for both ethical and self-interested
reasons
• If people truly care about nature (for whatever
reason) then they value it
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Applications of integrated
assessment of ecosystem
services
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Where to put things? Spatial land
management with biological and economic
objectives
Polasky et al. 2008. Biological Conservation 141(6): 1505-1524.
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Introduction
• Analyze effect of alternative land use patterns on – Biodiversity
– Value of agriculture, timber and housing development
• Biological model: – Land use determines pattern of habitat
– Predict probability of persistence for 267 terrestrial vertebrate species
• Economic model: – Value of agricultural crops and timber harvest are a function of yield,
price and production costs
– Value of rural residential housing: hedonic property price model to predict housing value as function of distance to urban areas and county location
• Efficiency frontier: find land use patterns that maximize biodiversity score for given economic return
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Land uses
• Consider 9 land uses in the Willamette application – row-crop agriculture
– orchard/vineyard
– Pasture
– grass seed
– 45-year rotation managed forestry
– rural-residential development
– conservation to create the dominant potential natural vegetation in the parcel
– conservation to recreate conditions at the time of European settlement in the parcel
– conservation to maintain 1990 land cover conditions in the parcel
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Willamette Basin
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Modeling multiple ecosystem services and
tradeoffs at landscape scales
Nelson et al. 2009. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 7(1): 4–11.
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Modeling multiple services under
alternative scenarios
• Three scenarios of land use / land cover
change for the Willamette Basin
developed by the Willamette Partnership
for 1990 – 2050 • Plan trend
• Development
• Conservation
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Modeling multiple services under
alternative scenarios
• Model outputs: service provision and biodiversity
– Water quality
– Storm peak mitigation
– Soil conservation (sediment retention)
– Climate stabilization (carbon sequestration)
– Biodiversity (species conservation)
– Market returns to landowners (agricultural crop
production, timber harvest and housing values)
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Projected land use change
in 2050 under the three
scenarios
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Outputs through time
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Ranking of scenarios depends on set of
ecosystem services considered
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Summary
• Spatially explicit analysis of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation
• Joint provision of services: one landscape, many consequences – Tradeoffs among services under alternative management
• Tools to address three related tasks of – Provision
– Value
– Policies and scenarios
• The failure to incorporate the value of ecosystem services in land use planning can result in poor outcomes – Low level of ecosystem services
– Low value of total goods and services from landscape
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Future challenges (1):
quantification
• Social-ecological systems: dynamic and interconnected
• Do we understand systems well enough to predict short-term and long-term consequences of management actions on services?
• Particular challenges
– Incorporating variability and uncertainty
– Thresholds and regime shifts
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Future challenges (2):
valuation
• Do we understand systems well enough to
establish payments for ecosystem
services?
• Danger of not tying payments to service
provision
– Case of carbon and tillage practices
• Importance of cultural, spiritual and
aesthetic values
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Future challenges (3):
policy and institutions
• Distribution of benefits: who benefits and
who pays
– Relationship to poverty alleviation
– Equity and justice
• Adaptive governance: designing
institutions that learn and adapt to new
information and situations
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Moving ahead
• We do not know enough BUT…
• We know enough to improve on current performance
• Pressing need to begin to mainstream ecosystem services into societal decisions
• The long road rather than the quick fix:
– Better science to improve understanding
– Better institutions/policy that reflect values
– Adaptive process that learns through time
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Thank you