varengoldbankfx daily fx report_20130801.pdf

8/22/2019 VarengoldbankFX Daily FX Report_20130801.pdf

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www.varengoldbankfx.com Promotional Document

Thursday, August 01, 2013

Good morning from warm Hamburg and welcome to our second last Daily FX Report in thisweek. According to documents provided by Edward Snowden the tool XKeyscore, which is a

secret program of the U.S. National Security Agency, allows analysts to search and collect

nearly everything a user does on the internet without even having prior authorization.

However we wish you much success in trading today!

Market Review Fundamental Perspective

Yesterday the Federal Reserve said that inflation which is persistently below its 2 percent

objective could pose risks to economic expansion. The FED noted difficulties in economy and

decided to leave its stimulus program unchanged at its monthly meeting and keep interest rates

at zero. Furthermore data showed yesterday that U.S. gross domestic product climbed at a 1.7

percent annualized rate, after it had gained 1.1 percent in the past quarter. Economists had only

forecasted an advance of 1 percent. Beyond that data showed that companies in the U.S.

increased payrolls in this month by the most this year. The rose of 200,000 in employment was

more than the market had estimated and followed a revised 198,000 gain in June. In addition a

report from the European statistics office revealed yesterday that the euro-area unemployment

rate remained unchanged in June at 12.1 percent. Euro-area inflation held steady at 1.6 percent

in July. Mario Draghi said in the past month that they will keep borrowing costs low for an

extended period. As a result investors estimate that today the interest rate will be left unchanged

by the ECB and the Bank of England. The EUR/USD climbed 0.3 percent to 1.3305 and the

USD/JPY fell 0.2 percent to 97.80. The EUR/JPY traded at 130.05. Yesterday the Dow Jones

Index of equities dropped 0.1 percent while the Standard & Poors Index remained unchanged.

Speculations came up that the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to cut borrowing costs nextweek which lead to a decline of the AUD to a three year low versus the USD towards 0.8950.

Economists assumed that the Bank of Canada will consider tightening monetary policy before

the end of this year as they are expecting an annualized growth of 1.8 percent in the second

quarter. The USD/CAD traded at 1.0277 and the CAD/JPY was at 97.80.


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Daily Technical Analysis

NZD/USD (4 Hours)

After the pair had declined to a seven week low around the support level 0.7682 the bulls took

control of it and push it up along an upward trend line. In its first attempt it failed to overcome the

resistance level around 0.8122 and declined to the bullish trend line again but according to the

oversold RSI further gains are possible.

Support & Resistance (4 Hours)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

0.79075 0.80374

0.77776 0.81226

0.76827 0.82067


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AUD/JPY (4 Hours)

As you can see the AUD declined immensely versus the JPY and touched a seven month low

around 87.21 simultaneously with the lowest Bollinger band. Although it was able to recover

there we might not expect a clear trend reversal while the MACD is still bearish.



87.217 89.697

N/A 91.888

N/A 92.542


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EUR/CHF (4 Hours)

The bearish trend started nearly three weeks ago and touched recently the support level around

1.2301. According to the Stochastic and the short term Moving Average the close support line

might not have enough power to stop the decrease so more losses along the trend line are more

than likely.



1.23017 1.23502

1.22818 1.24017

1.22422 1.24641


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Daily Calendar & Key FX Events

Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last Survey

01.08.2013 07:55 GE PMI Manufacturing 50.3 50.3

01.08.2013 07:50 FR PMI Manufacturing 49.8 49.8

01.08.2013 08:00 EC PMI Manufacturing 50.1 50.1

01.08.2013 08:30 UK PMI Manufacturing 52.5 52.8

01.08.2013 11:00 UK Bank of England Rate 0.5% 0.5%

01.08.2013 11:45 EC ECB Announces Rate 0.5% 0.5%

01.08.2013 11:45 EC Deposit Facility Rate 0.0% 0.0%

01.08.2013 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 343K 345K

01.08.2013 12:30 US Continuing Claims 2997K 3000K

01.08.2013 14:00 US Construction Spenging MoM 0.5% 0.4%

01.08.2013 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing 50.9 52.0

01.08.2013 14:00 US ISM Prices Paid 52.5 53.8

If you have any questions, please contact us for further assistance. 24 hours a day:German: +49. 40. 66 86 49 0

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DISCLAIMER

IMPORTANT NOTIFICATION TO BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONTENTS OF THISPROMOTIONAL DOCUMENT

This document Daily FX Report is a promotional document and is created and published by VarengoldWertpapierhandelsbank AG. This Promotional document serves exclusively for information purposes.It isexclusively aimed at German business partners and customers who make their own investment decisionsat their own risk notwithstanding the contents of this promotional document. Investment decisions shouldbe made on the basis of a preceding consultation with an independent financial advisor and prospectus,but not on the basis of this promotional document.

Depending on the individual investor's investment goals, investment horizon or financial situation, thecontents of the present promotional document may not be suitable at all or only in part. This promotionaldocument is not aimed at persons with residence and / or place of business and / or branches abroad,particularly in the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Great Britain. This promotional document isfor information only and especially does not constitute a public offer, an advice, recommendation or aninvitation to submit an offer for purchase or selling of or subscription to securities or other financialinstruments. This Promotional document does not constitute investment advice or investmentrecommendation.This promotional document does not constitute a financial analysis. Therefore it does not fulfill the legalrequirements ensuring the impartiality of financial analyses. This promotional document is not subject tothe prohibition of trades before the publication of financial analyses. With this promotional document noindividual investment advisory and / or information relationship with Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AGis established.

All declarations, statements or assessments included in this promotional document are those of thisdocument's author; they do not imperatively correspond to third party statements. VarengoldWertpapierhandelsbank AG has taken the entire information on which the promotional document is basedfrom sources considered serious and reliable, but without verifying the entire information. This is whyVarengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG does not give promises or guarantees regarding precision,completeness or accuracy of the information or opinions included. Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AGdoes not assume any liability for losses and direct or consequential damage caused by the use and / ordistribution of this promotional document and / or associated with the use and /or distribution of thispromotional document. The contents of the promotional document correspond to the state of informationas of the date of its preparation. It may be outdated on account of future developments without thispromotional document having been modified. Any complete or partial reproduction or any other usage and/or distribution of this promotional document and / or its content is forbidden and subject to publisher'sprior written consent.

Warning notice:Trading the foreign exchange market carry a high level of risk and may result in substantial loss in part orall of an investment and is therefore not suitable for every investor. Any past performance is not anindication or guarantee of future performance.

Publisher:

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AGGrosse Elbstrasse 2722767 Hamburg, GermanyT+49.40.66 86 49 0


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