variability enso: mdl < obs neut: mdl > obs
DESCRIPTION
Potential Predictability. ENSO. NEUT. El Nino. Mdl. La Nina. Obs. Variability ENSO: Mdl < Obs NEUT: Mdl > Obs. Neut. Regime dependent bias corrected. Conventional bias corrected. Raw forecast skill. Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS. Wilbur Y. Chen - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
VariabilityENSO: Mdl < ObsNEUT: Mdl > Obs
Obs
Mdl
ENSO NEUT
ElNino
LaNina
Neut
Potential Predictability
Raw forecast skill
Conventional bias corrected
Regime dependent bias corrected
Climate Variability and
Potential Predictabilityin CFS
Wilbur Y. Chen
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Clim TotalVariance
Diff
MDL
OBS
More brown than blue
DML
OBS
DIFF
ENSODJFs
NEUTDJFs
MorePositive
More Negative
havehave
MDL
OBS
Ratio
ENSODJFs
NEUTDJFs
More
>> 1.
Less > 1.
A
B
A
B
MDL VAR of
ENS Means
Versus
ENS Spreads
ENS Means
ENSSpreads
Neutral
ENSO
Diff
Mdl Behavior:
clim noise is smallerwhen there is ENSO forcing
larger
smaller
Mdl VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO
More < 1.
More > 1.
Neut
ENSO
Ens mean Ens spread
Ratio
WarmDJFs
Cold DJFs
DIFF
ClimSignal
Clim Noise
MorePosit
MoreNegat
smaller
larger
larger
smaller
Potential Predictability
VAR of Clim Signal------------------------------------Total VAR (Signal+Noise)
El Nino DJFs
La Nina DJFsENSO
Total
Neut
El Nino DJFs
La Nina DJFs
for ENSO DJFs
for Neutral DJFs
Potential Predictability
Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold