variable annuities

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Variable AnnuitiesRisk Management Challenges

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About the speaker

Sougata Roy has several years of experience in US insurance industry. His primary area of expertise is Enterprise Risk Management in insurance industry context. He has extensive work experience in Asset Liability Management, Hedging of insurance liabilities, Market risk management, Economic Capital framework and Market Consistent framework. He has experience working in some of the top insurance carriers in US namely The Hartford, Lincoln Financial Group and Old Mutual US.Sougata is a qualified actuary from Society of Actuaries, USA and a CFA charter holder. He also has an MBA from Indian Institute of Management, Indore and a bachelor degree in Electronics & Telecommunications Engineering from Bengal Engineering College, Shibpore.

Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/sougata‐roy‐fsa‐cfa/7/432/87

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Sougata RoyFSA, CFA, MBA (IIM‐Indore)


Disclaimer

• The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter, and not those of the presenter’s employer. • This presentation is intended solely for educational purposes and presents information of a general nature. It is

not intended to guide or determine any specific individual situation and persons should consult qualified professionals before taking specific investment actions.

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Topics• Introduction to Equity Based Insurance Guarantees

• Managing the risks– Traditional Approaches– Recent Developments

• Risk Management Challenges

• Equity Based Insurance Guarantees in Indian context

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Introduction to Equity Based Insurance Guarantees– Death Benefits

• Guaranteed amount in case of policyholder’s death during the term of a contract

– Living Benefits (GMAB, GMWB and GMIB)• GMAB: Guaranteed sum at the maturity of the contract• GMIB: Guaranteed floor of income at the end of holding period• GMWB: Guaranteed return of premium over time

– Index Annuities• Participation in equity market with a floor and a cap

– Variable Universal Life• Universal life with flexibility to participate in equity market

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Some Illustrations

** Charts are from Morningstar Report Titled “Living Benefits”6


Insurer PerspectiveEach policy in VA with guaranteed benefit rider becomes a short put option with different

– Strike (Guarantee Amount)– Underlying (Fund Value which depends upon investment allocation)– Maturity (Contingent upon living)

Insurance Policy + Capital Market Security

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Managing Risk • Mortality and Lapse

– Determines the maturity of the option written by insurer– Policyholder behavior is a key factor

• Depends upon age, sex, economic background and various other factors• Modeling is more art than science• Some insurers use predictive modeling for this

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Managing Risk

• Guarantees– Some insurers decided to not hedge guarantees

• Almost all of them are out of VA business now

– Reinsurance• Not many reinsurer in the market after financial crisis

– Dynamic hedging• Replicate the payoff using available exchange traded and over the counter derivative• Primarily three greek strategy – delta, vega, rho

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Typical Dynamic Hedging Program

• Replicates liability and rebalances hedge portfolio based on market movements

Greek Typical Instruments Used

Delta Equity futures, Total Return Swaps, Vanilla Options

Rho IR futures, IR Swaps

Vega Vanilla Options, Variance Swaps

End of Day Market Data

Stochastic Scenario Generator (RN)

Liability Model

Asset Models

Trading Floor (Rebalancing)

Database/Reporting Engine

Rebalancing based on Greeks coverage

P&L Report, Attribution

Actuarial Assumptions

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Challenges With Dynamic Hedging

• Unmitigated Risks– Greeks other than Delta, Vega, Rho– Higher order greeks

• Pricing– Inadequate hedge cost assumption

• Basis Risk– Difference between hedge indices and fund performance

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Challenges With Dynamic Hedging

• Liquidity– Bid‐Ask widens in stress markets

• Counterparty risk– Credit risk in OTC contracts

• Systemic failure

• Controls and Execution

“Perfect Storm” in during financial crisis

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And then there is Accounting…• Wide difference in accounting standards related to valuation of hedge instruments and liability

• What are you trying to hedge?– Stat Earnings?– GAAP Earnings?– Economics?

• Unfortunately you can pick only one

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Some knee jerk reactions…• Increased price of guarantees

– Higher premium for writing the option

• Reduced benefits– Lower strike of the put option

• Restrict equity allocation– Lowering the notional

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Recent Developments…• Indexing fees to Volatility

– Reduces the risk of undercharging hedge cost

• Volatility Managed Funds– Dynamic allocation based on volatility of the index– Overlaying derivatives in the fund

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Volatility Managed Funds• Allocation between equity and bond changes to target a constant volatility (subject to cap)

– Reduces Vega exposure significantly– Generally there is higher alpha

• Does not impact Delta or Rho – So you still need a dynamic hedging program

• This is steadily gaining popularity

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Equity Linked Insurance Market in India• There is obviously a market for these products

– It is set to expand as some early “Gen‐X” approaches retirement in next 5‐7 years

• First generation ULIP has disappeared from market post 2010

• Highest NAV guaranteed ULIP became largest selling ULIP since Sep 2010– CPPI Strategy– Not aligned to stock index– Can get cash locked– IRDA has banned those products starting Oct to stop misselling

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Equity Linked Insurance Market in India• To expand, further innovation are required

– Managed volatility funds can be a potential candidate

• Development of derivative market– To be able to dynamically hedge market risk

• Regulatory approvals for derivative usage

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Key Points…

• VA Guarantees are complex– Can be viewed as exotic derivative contracts– Needs dynamic hedging for risk management

• Issues with dynamic hedging– Accounting issues– Basis, Liquidity and Counterparty– Unaccounted risks

• Recent Developments in US market– Managed volatility funds– Volatility indexed fees

• Indian market– High potential– Needs further development in derivative markets– Managed volatility fund can be a good option

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QUESTIONS?

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