vehicle emission modelling developments …vehicle emission modelling developments in the u.s. and...
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VEHICLE EMISSION MODELLING
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE U.S. AND MEXICO
MoVE2016 Conference
Hong Kong
December 14-16, 2016
John Koupal
Eastern Research Group, Inc.
Acknowledgements
Allison DenBleyker, Scott Fincher, Doug Jackson, Sandeep
Kishan
– Eastern Research Group, Inc.
Veronica Garibay-Bravo
– ORG+CO
Cynthia Menéndez, Ricardo Troncoso
– USAID Mexico Low Emissions Development Program
José Andrés Aguilar Gómez, Sergio Zirath Hernández
Villaseñor
– Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC)
3
Emission Field Studies - Kansas City Gasoline PM Program - Houston Port Drayage Program - Midwest Construction Study - High Evaporative Field Study - Hong Kong PEMS Support
Vehicle Activity Studies - Portable Activity Monitor implementation - Instrumented Vehicle Driving Studies - Off-Road Activity Studies - Telematics Data Analysis & Model Inputs - Port Studies
Emissions & Activity Analysis - MOVES Heavy-Duty drive cycle development - Analysis of Heavy-Duty Deterioration - Trip length & soak time analysis for evaporative emissions - Off-road real-world duty cycles & emissions - Hong Kong emission & activity profiles
Model Development - U.S.: MOVES , MOBILE, EMFAC (California) - International: MOVES-Mexico, EMFAC-Hong Kong - Off-Road: OFFROAD , TexN (Texas)
Model Deployment - MOVES Training in Beijing, Mexico City - MOBILE6 User Guide & Training - MOBILE6 Training in Thailand and Mexico -- EMFAC-Hong Kong User Guide & Training
Emission Inventory Support - U.S. : National Emissions Inventory - States: Texas, New Jersey, California - International: Hong Kong, Mexico, North
America Black Carbon Inventory Guidelines - Gulf of Mexico: Marine Emissions Inventory - Freight: Carbon footprint for EPA SmartWay
Policy Evaluation - Mexico Marine ECA Analysis & IMO Application -U.S. DOT Report to Congress - GHG Reduction Strategies - I/M program evaluation (several states) - Policy measures to reduce PM in Bangkok
Full service mobile source
emission evaluation
Origin of MOVES
Models estimate real-world emissions for air
quality analysis, planning and standard setting
U.S. EPA is required to update emission factors at
least every 3 years to support analyses under the
Clean Air Act
EPA began development of the first on-road
emission factor model, MOBILE, in 1970s
Desire for improved modeling capability lead to
development of MOVES, beginning in 2000 4
5 Source:
US EPA
Evolution of MOVES in U.S.
Example Uses of MOVES in
the U.S.
National Scale – “what if?” assessments
County Scale – National Emissions Inventory
6
Example Uses of MOVES in
the U.S.
County Scale, cont.
Air Quality Projections & Policy Evaluation
7
Δ Emission
Inventory
Tons
AQ data source: LADCO, 2007
Example Uses of MOVES in
the U.S.
Project Scale – individual transportation projects
8
Proposed Highway Expansion
Resulting PM2.5 Concentration
Dispersion
Model (e.g., AERMOD)
Picture source: EPA/FHWA project level
training course
Emission
Model (e.g., MOVES)
Future Plans for U.S. MOVES
Plans still under development
Potential updates (highlights): – 2007+ HD Emissions inc. SCR & DPF effectiveness
– Tier 2 Light-duty PM emissions inc. GDI
– Update population & activity based on latest data
– New regulations (e.g. HD GHG Phase 2)
– Functional & performance improvements
Projected timing: 2018 at the earliest
Progress in planning will be shared online by EPA through federal advisory committee process: – https://www.epa.gov/moves/federal-advisory-committee-
act-faca-moves-model-review-work-group 9
MOVES Outside the U.S.
MOVES designed to be customized to any
country/state/city
Customization can occur in stages as data
becomes available
User-friendly interface aids input of local data
Researchers are beginning to adapt MOVES
outside the U.S.
ERG has led development of MOVES-Mexico, the
first-full adaptation of MOVES outside the U.S.
MOVES-Mexico Evolution
Developed over three separate projects
Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) – Summer day inventories for northern Mexico in 2011 & 2017
Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) – Support for Gulf of Mexico emissions inventory
– Annual inventories for 2012, including PM (partial Mexico)
USAID Mexico Low Emission Development Program (MLED)
– Expand model to entire country • 31 states + Federal District
• 2,438 municipios
– Update emission rates based on Mexico remote sensing data
Significant technical support from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC)
Approach
Develop MOVES-Mexico at National Scale
– Produce a complete default Mexico database
– Allows estimates for each municipio and state, across all
years MOVES covers, without requiring data from the user
– Provides foundation for more detailed County and Project
scale analyses for modelers in Mexico
– Database works directly with U.S. MOVES2014a software
Use Mexico-specific data where available
Updated emission rates based on emissions data and
differences from the U.S. vehicle emission standards
Compare fuel consumption estimates to top-down
production and sales data in Mexico
MOVES-Mexico Model
13
U.S. MOVES2014a (released Dec. 2015)
http://www3.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves
Mexico-specific database:
movesmexdb20151028
Replaces the U.S. database movesdb20151028
Available ftp.erg.com (Login: movesmexico, Password: Move44Mexico)
– User Guide (installing and running)
– Technical Report (data sources and methods)
Replacing U.S. states/counties
with Mexico states/municipios
Available Data
VKT per vehicle, age
Vehicle population by vehicle class, age, state
Vehicle population forecasts & backcasts
Road network GIS files onroad activity allocation by municipio
Human population start/park activity allocation by municipio
Fuel consumption month VKT allocations
Fuel properties (e.g. RVP by month, sulfur, oxygenate)
I/M program parameters
Meteorology
Altitude
Emissions data (remote sensing)
Issues To Consider
Vehicle and roadway classification differences from U.S.
Fuel quality differences from U.S.
Emission standards differences from U.S.
U.S. and European vehicle market penetration
– Market share over time not well known
Influence of taxis
– ~15% of passenger car VKT
– Remote sensing shows much higher emissions
Border vs. non-border vehicle fleet
No extended idle
Updating Emission Rates
Default MOVES emission factors reflect U.S.
emissions standards as a function of model year
Mexico emissions data (remote sensing) used to
calibrate emission rates where available
U.S. emission factors mapped to Mexico based on
differences in emission standards where data not
available
Updated THC, CO, NOx, PM and Total Energy
Evaporative emission rates also updated 17
Mapping U.S. Emission Rates
to Mexico
18
Mexico Model Year
Range
Correlated U.S.
Technology/Standard
U.S. Model Year or Bins
Applied
1980-1992 Pre-Control 1980
1993 “1991” 1992
1994-1997 “1994” 1996
1998-2008 “1998” (Electronic
Control)
2000
2009 and later “2004” (EGR) 2004
Example: HD Diesel Trucks
Script developed to create EmissionRateByAge
table for Mexico based on this mapping
Mexico Emissions Data
Remote sensing data in 24 cities
Collected from 2008 - 2014
Covers variety of conditions
– No Inspection & Maintenance(IM) / Yes IM
– High sulfur / Low Sulfur
– Border / No Border
Only light-duty car and truck samples large enough
to use to develop emission rates (NO & CO only)
19
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
NO
gra
m/k
g f
ue
l
Model Year
Mexico Remote Sensing Data vs. MOVES2014 U.S. (2008)
RSD MOVES
Emission rate
calibration example
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
De
teri
ora
tio
n F
act
or
Model Year
Relative 6-year Deterioration Rate (2008 2014)
MOVES U.S. RSD
Step 1: Calibrate based on 2008
comparison (all ages, operating
modes)
Step 2: Account for additional
deterioration observed in RSD
collected in later years
Results
Fuel Validation
– Modeled vs. SENER production & PEMEX sales data
Criteria Pollutant Emission Trends 1990-2050
– Comparisons with U.S. trends
21
MOVES 7% higher than 2013 PEMEX (we consider this very good)
Lower than SENER in early 2000s due to no count of imports
Future estimates reflect INECC sales projections & 1% per year improvement
22
Fuel Consumption Validation
Gasoline
Fuel Consumption Validation
Diesel
MOVES 3% lower than 2013 PEMEX
Difference with SENER (for MOVES & PEMEX) – use of diesel in offroad equipment?
23
NOX Emission Trends
24
On-road Emission Factor by Calendar Year Total On-road Emissions by Calendar Year
Co
mp
os
ite
EF
(G
ram
s / m
ile
)
Calendar Year Me
xic
o S
ca
le (
Mil
lio
n T
on
s)
U.S
. S
ca
le (
Mil
lio
n T
on
s)
Calendar Year
Emission factors drop over time due to Mexico vehicle & emission standards, but stay
significantly higher than U.S.
“Bump” in 2007-2009 combination of import vehicle “jump” & gasoline sulfur reduction
Total emission trends reflect growth in VMT, with effect of Mexico standards evident ~2020-2040
Mexico emissions projected to be about equal to U.S. by ~2032, and exceed thereafter
25
On-road Emission Factor by Calendar Year Total On-road Emissions by Calendar Year
CO Emission Trends
Co
mp
os
ite
EF
(G
ram
s / m
ile
)
Calendar Year Calendar Year Mexic
o S
cale
(M
illio
n T
on
s)
U.S
. S
ca
le (
Mil
lio
n T
on
s)
Emission factors drop over time due to Mexico vehicle & emission standards, but stay
significantly higher than U.S.
“Bump” in 2007-2009 combination of import vehicle “jump” & gasoline sulfur reduction
Total emission trends reflect growth in VMT, with effect of Mexico standards evident ~2020-2040
Mexico emissions projected to be about equal to U.S. by ~2043, and exceed thereafter
26
PM2.5 Emission Trends
On-road Emission Factor by Calendar Year Total On-road Emissions by Calendar Year
Co
mp
os
ite
EF
(G
ram
s / m
ile
)
Calendar Year Calendar Year
Me
xic
o S
ca
le (
Mil
lio
n T
on
s)
U.S
. S
ca
le (
Mil
lio
n T
on
s)
Emission factors level off ~2010, and stay significantly higher than U.S.
Total emission trends reflect growth in VMT – steady growth
Mexico emissions projected to be about equal to U.S. by ~2024, and exceed thereafter
27
VOC Emission Trends
On-road Emission Factor by Calendar Year Total On-road Emissions by Calendar Year
Calendar Year
Me
xic
o S
ca
le (
Mil
lio
n T
on
s)
Calendar Year Co
mp
os
ite
EF
(G
m / m
ile
)
U.S
. S
ca
le (
Mil
lio
n T
on
s)
Exhaust and evaporative emissions shown as separate bars
No change in evaporative standards leads to constant EF, begins to dominate VOC
Evaporative emissions lead to steady increase in future emissions
Mexico emissions projected to be about equal to U.S. by ~2032, and exceed thereafter
Applications of MOVES-Mexico
Evaluating national effects of cleaner vehicles and
fuels supporting - in support of ICCT analysis (LARCI)
Mexico City on-road inventory (SEDEMA)
Evaluation of I/M program policies in Mexico (USAID,
INECC, Jalisco state gov’t)
Continued training and support for MOVES-Mexico
(USAID)
Mexico on-road emission inventories for U.S. air
quality modeling platform (US EPA)…next slide
28
Municipio-level on-road inventories
Ran MOVES-Mexico in Amazon cloud
29
Conclusions
MOVES has been successfully adapted to Mexico;
this process can be replicated in other countries
Mexico-specific data used as much as possible
Validation vs. fuel sales looks good
Emission trends show strong influence of rapid
growth, some impact of Mexico standards
Provides Mexico with a consistent, common
platform for emissions and air quality analysis
30
