Vehicle emissions of light duty vehicles:carbon, diesels and outlook

Ricardo F Martinez-BotasMechanical EngineeringImperial College London

ContentsProgression in vehicle emissionsVehicle emissions test programme

VW resultsNEDC in DynoRDE & Conformity FactorsNEDC in Track

Emissions gapNOxCO2

Energy performance of other future vehicles

Progression in Vehicle Emissions

Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs

UK National emissions of air pollutants

UK Department for Transport Defeat Device Investigation 7

Vehicle Emissions Test ProgrammeOctober 2015 – April 2016

UK Department for Transport Defeat Device Investigation 9

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vehicle-emissions-testing-programme-conclusions

Objectives

10

Revelations in September 2015 that VW Group used software to distort emissions tests

Secretary of State informed Parliament of UK’s Vehicle Emissions Test Programme on 10 November 2015, to:Establish whether the use of strategies to defeat emissions tests goes wider than the

VW Group Gather much-needed evidence to restore public confidence and improve our

understanding of the real world emissions performance of vehicles

Official - Sensitive

How vehicles selected

11

Produced list of 100 top selling diesels (based on study of buying preferences 2010-2015)

Aimed to capture 75% of sales of top 70 vehicles, representing >50% of all diesels on UK roads

All major manufacturers

Engine sharing effectively increases the size of our sample

Even split of Euro 5 and Euro 6

Snapshot in time of a single example of each model’s NOx performance

Official - Sensitive

Methodology – set up

12

Vehicles Sourced from car hire fleets

Unmodified and no defects

<30,000 miles

Typical winter grade diesel

Tests Lab: Full lab-grade analysers (plus PEMS to confirm calibration)

Track and road: Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS)

Official - Sensitive

Vehicles Sourced from car hire fleets

Unmodified and no defects

<30,000 miles

Typical winter grade diesel

Comparison of NOx emissions on NEDC tests showing vehicle which does not appear to vary emissions behaviour

14

Official - Sensitive

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Spee

d (k

m/h

)

Emis

sion

s (m

g/s)

Time (s)

L-NEDC (Hot) L-NEDC Reverse Speed

Comparison of NOx emissions on NEDC tests showing impact of VW Group cycle recognition software

15

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Spee

d (k

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sion

s (m

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Time (s)

L-NEDC (Hot) L-NEDC Reverse Speed

Methodology – tests

17

Laboratory1. Official NEDC test with cold engine at 20-30°C ambient

2. Official NEDC test with fully warmed up engine (repeated)

3. Reversed NEDC test with fully warmed up engine

On roadApproximation of RDE test (pending confirmation of final requirements) – 1.5 hours on public roads including urban, rural and motorway

Official - Sensitive

RDE Testing

Undertaken in public roads near VCA.

1.5 hours of continuous driving.

PEMS installed.

Route included the prescribed:UrbanRuralMotorway

Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 5 vehicles

19

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Citr

oen

C4

Ford

Mon

deo

Hon

da C

RV

Hyu

ndai

i30

Hyu

ndai

iX35

Hyu

ndai

San

ta F

e

Kia

Spor

tage

Land

Rov

er F

reel

ande

r

Mer

cede

s E2

50

Nis

san

Qas

hqai

1.5

Nis

san

Qas

hqai

1.6

Peug

eot 2

08

Ran

ge R

over

Spo

rt

Ran

ge R

over

Spo

rt

Skod

a O

ctav

ia

Vaux

hall

Astra

Vaux

hall

Cor

sa

Vaux

hall

Insi

gnia

Volv

o V4

0

NO

x Em

issi

ons

(mg/

km)

Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 6 vehicles

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Audi

A3

BMW

320

d

BMW

X5

Ford

Foc

us

Ford

Mon

deo

Hon

da C

RV

Hyu

ndai

i30

Jagu

ar X

E

Kia

Spor

tage

Maz

da 6

Mer

cede

s A1

80

Min

i Cou

ntry

man

Peug

eot 3

008

Ren

ault

Meg

ane

Skod

a O

ctav

ia

Toyo

ta A

vens

is

Vaux

hall

Insi

gnia

Vaux

hall

Mok

ka

VW G

olf

NO

x Em

issi

ons

(mg/

km)

Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 5 & 6 vehicles

21

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Citr

oen

C4

Ford

Mon

deo

Hon

da C

RV

Hyu

ndai

i30

Hyu

ndai

iX35

Hyu

ndai

San

ta F

eKi

a Sp

orta

geLa

nd R

over

…M

erce

des

E250

Nis

san

Qas

hqai

1.5

Nis

san

Qas

hqai

1.6

Peug

eot 2

08R

ange

Rov

er S

port

Ran

ge R

over

Spo

rtSk

oda

Oct

avia

Vaux

hall

Astra

Vaux

hall

Cor

saVa

uxha

ll In

sign

iaVo

lvo

V40

NO

x Em

issi

ons

(mg/

km)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Audi

A3

BMW

320

dBM

W X

5Fo

rd F

ocus

Ford

Mon

deo

Hon

da C

RV

Hyu

ndai

i30

Jagu

ar X

EKi

a Sp

orta

geM

azda

6M

erce

des…

Min

i…Pe

ugeo

t 300

8R

enau

lt…Sk

oda…

Toyo

ta…

Vaux

hall…

Vaux

hall…

VW G

olf

NO

x Em

issi

ons

(mg/

km)

Temperature warning

Tests on the road where performed in the winter months

Variability of results

Just what was intended as it was trying to capture a real behaviour

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16HyundaiCitroen

FordHonda

HyundaiHyundai

KiaLand Rover

MercedesNissanNissan

PeugeotRange Rover SportRange Rover Sport

SkodaVauxhallVauxhallVauxhall

VolvoAudiBMWBMWFordFord

HondaHyundai

JaguarKia

MazdaMercedes

MiniPeugeotRenaultSkodaToyota

VauxhallVauxhall

VW

RDE ambient temperature

Degrees C

Conformity Factors

Conformity Factor:

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 = 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑅𝑅𝑜𝑜𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅

Only two vehicles achieved less than a conformity factor less than 2.1(Mini Countryman & VW Golf)

Average CF=6.2 for the Euro 6

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.013.014.015.0

Audi

BMW

BMW

Ford

Ford

Hond

aHy

unda

iJa

guar Kia

Maz

daM

erce

des

Min

iPe

ugeo

tRe

naul

tSk

oda

Toyo

taVa

uxha

llVa

uxha

llVW

Conformity Factors for EURO6

Methodology – tests

24

Laboratory1. Official NEDC test with cold engine at 20-30°C ambient

2. Official NEDC test with fully warmed up engine (repeated)

3. Reversed NEDC test with fully warmed up engine

On roadApproximation of RDE test (pending confirmation of final requirements) – 1.5 hours on public roads including urban, rural and motorway

TrackReplicate official NEDC test plus laboratory variations (as above) plus a further NEDC test with fully warmed up engine but driving speed increased by 10%

Official - Sensitive

The NEDC cycle

NEDC TRACK AT MIRA

Track test results

28 Official - Sensitive

Dyno vs Track: why such a big difference?

What affects the difference between the two “seemingly identical” test?Aerodynamics: settings of the dyno,

commonly know as the coast down values.

Flexibility: choosing the most favourable vehicle configuration.

Test temperature: particularly in relation to EGR regulation regime.

Weight: difference between vehicles.Cornering and track effects.Emission equipment discrepancies

What relative Importance*

*for illustration only

Observations

30

Observable cycle recognition strategy on Skoda

No evidence other manufacturers have acted in the same way as VW Group

Very large difference between laboratory and track/road results

Emission controls are often significantly temperature dependent – but manufacturers say this change with ambient temperature is necessary “to protect the engine from damage”.

Temperature dependent strategies via the control of EGR are a legal exemption from the defeat device prohibition.

Incoming WLTP and RDE testing will contribute to reduce the gap but monitoring is of the essence.

Official - Sensitive

What is the magnitude of the emissions gap?

Discussed it in terms of the divergence between the regulated type approval and the performance.

From the Emissions Testing Programme

From the carbon perspective

Divergence between Road and Regulated

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 =𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅

𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅

*Some vehicles had more than one entry in the data set, see the Emissions Testing Vehicle Programme

Dive

rgen

ce

Dive

rgen

ce

Average* Average*

1.03.05.07.09.0

11.013.015.0

Euro 6

1.03.05.07.09.0

11.013.015.0

Euro 5

Divergence between the regulated type approval and the performance.

Divergence between Road and NEDC Dyno results

1

6

11

16

21

26

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Euro 5

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷

=𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅

𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝐷𝐷𝐶𝐶 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 (𝑚𝑚𝐷𝐷/𝑘𝑘𝑚𝑚)

Euro 6 Type approvalAverage

𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 =𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅

Divergence between the Dyno testing performance and the road

Emissions gap: CO2How far has the divergence grown?

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

Emissions gap: CO2How far has the divergence grown?

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation

2013

2001

2013

2001

2013

20??

2013

20??

Outlook

Energy and CO2 footprint of different vehiclesa real world analysis

Energy per Km in real conditions

Future Car Challenge: Brighton to London

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

kWh/

km

EV E-REV/PHEV HEV ICE

Average: 0.24 kWh/km

How is this energy requirement delivered?

Downsize and boost

KERS

Improvedcombustion

Turbine MechanicalThermo Electrics

Well to wheel CO2

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gCO

2e/k

m Average: 99 gCO2e/km (well-to-wheel)

Future Car Challenge: Brighton to London

EV E-REV/PHEV HEV ICE

Adaptation:Would it be possible to consider a platform that adapts?Would it be possible to overcome the limits of calibration?Would it be possible to target vehicle development where it may be best?

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.It is the one most adaptable to change.

Passenger car tailpipe CO2 trajectories

Diesel ICE minimum

Hybrid vehicle minimum

Thank you

49 Official - Sensitive