Velddrift February 3 2011

Biodiversity and Climate Change

The case of subtropical thickets and small local municipalitiesmitigation, adaptation, and resilience

Mike Powell Rhodes Restoration Research Group

RHODES UNIVERSITY, South Africa mpowell@ru.ac.za

Ecological Restoration Capital Pty (Ltd) Nollen Group South Africa

mike@nollengroup.com

• Climate change and biodiversity loss

• Subtropical thickets , restoration, carbon farming and local authorities

• Conservation planning and local authorities

• Good news

• Suggestions

Structure

Fundamental Assumptions

• Climate change is real, here, and inertial

• Habitat destruction is still 1O driver (biodiv)

• Ecological sustainability is the mantra

• Local Govt is the future

• Species (nature) right to exist

WWW.WHRC.ORG/CARBON

Carbon Cycle

Petagram = 1015 g

Patz et al. Nature November 2005

Mortalitypeople per million0-22-44-7070-120

Scales and perspective

Global Climate Change

• Increase in greenhouse gases

• Trap solar radiation

• Steady increase in mean annual Global T 1-6OC in the next 100 years

• Change in climatic patterns

• Impaired ecosystems and threat to agriculture

• Severe threat to global species diversity

12 billion - 2050 – 109 hectares agric

Where

remnant of widespread global thicket biome – Eocene (Cowling et al. 2005)

Albany Thicket Biome

Data from: Mucina & Rutherford 2006

Data source : unknown

~ 18% of GHG comes from land-use change

CI Biodiversity Hotspot

Taxonomic Group Species Endemic Species Percent

EndemismPlants 8,100 1,900 23.5

Mammals 194 4 2.1Birds 541 0 0.0

Reptiles 209 30 14.4Amphibians 72 11 15.3Freshwater

Fishes 73 20 27.4

www.biodiversityhotspots.orgMittermeier et al. 2004

Pristine subtropical thicket

112 distinct subtropical thicket types : Vlok et al. (2003)

30% endemism in plants

% endemism in invertebrates?

Diversity of soil microflora/fauna?

• Vegetation cover intact

• Nutrient cycles functioning optimally

• Ecological process and evolutionary process proceeding

• Steady and reliable primary production (forage)

• High plant biomass

• High species diversity

• High levels of plant endemism

• Complex vegetation canopy structure

Pristine thicket

Arid thicket – 811 000 haValley thicket – 587 000 ha

STEP data – Vlok et al. 2003, Lombard et al. 2002.

Degradation – 800 000 ha +

STEP data Lloyd et al. 2002.

• Vegetation cover largely lost

• Nutrient cycles seriously disrupted

• Ecological process and evolutionary processes arrested

• Erratic and marginal primary production

• Low carrying capacity

• Expensive to rehabilitate

• Canopy loss - harsh microclimates induced

• Wind and solar desiccation of topsoil

• Eventual loss of canopy dominants

• = Total desertification

“Smashed” thicket

“Smashed” thicket

Abiotic and biotic barriers to natural regenerations

Degraded Subtropical thicket

“Overgrazed” – Aucamp 1979, Acocks 1988

“Neglected and abused” – Hoffman & Everard 1987

“desertification” – Kerley et al. 1995, Kerley 1996,

“national tragedy” – Aucamp 1979

“unsustainable land-use practices” Kerley et al., 1999

POINT BEING : Still happening today

“PUT BREAD ON THE TABLE” SYNDROME

Carbon leakage & Biodiversity loss

Where is the compliance monitoring?

Where are the advocacy groups?

“If you don’t like what I am doing on my farm, why don’t you buy it?” Howard Elliott – Failed Bathurst Pineapple Farmer 2010

• Biodiversity loss• Soil nutrients leakage• Water use efficiency drop• Carrying capacity loss• Productivity loss• Water table drop• Carbon stocks leakage• Less jobs/ha• Less income per ha• Climate change adaptation

Climate Change Adaptation

Ecologically bankrupt

LAND REFORMCarbon equity vs. carbon colonialism

e.g. Rockhurst Black Farmers Group in Makana Municipality

Restoration RationaleWorking for Woodlands

Establish Carbon baselines

Establish Carbon baselines

Restore

Capture C

Mainstream restoration

  Old Lands   Degraded   Pristine

 Carbon pool n=25   n=44   n=32

Litter C 0.66±0.25   1.39±0.31   4.85±0.99

Herb C 0.59±0.10   0.93±0.11   0.61±0.17

Woody & Succ C 5.40±1.58   4.00±0.72   29.00±3.32

Root C <25cm 3.34±0.78   2.62±0.63   3.60±0.58

Soil C <25cm24.06±2.3

4   21.56±1.67   49.68±6.21

TCS34.05±3.6

1   30.50±2.10   87.73±6.51

Carbon leakage along degradation gradient

Protected Areas and Biodiversity

We need intact habitat = we need better land use decision making

Data from: Lloyd et al. 2002 and Lombard et al. 2002.

Corridors and MegaConservancy Networks – Knight & Cowling 2003.

Data from: Lloyd et al. 2002 and Lombard et al. 2002.

Significant Biodiversity interests

Bioregional Cons Plans

Provincial Biodiv Conservation Plan

Berliner et al. 2007.

CBA map category Code BLMC

Protected areas PA1

BLMC 1 Natural landscapes PA2

Terrestrial CBA 1(not degraded) T1

Terrestrial CBA 1(degraded) T1

BLMC 2 Near-natural landscapesTerrestrial CBA 2

T2

C1

C2

Other Natural Areas

ONA T3

BLMC 3 Functional landscapes ONA

Transformed areas TF BLMC 4 transformed landscapes

Provincial Biodiv Conservation Plan

Berliner et al. 2007.

CBA = critical biodiversity areaBLMC = biodiv land management class

Land use Management Class Type

Landuse Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4

Conservation Yes Yes Yes Yes

Game farming No Yes Yes Yes

Communal livestock No Yes Yes Yes

Commercial livestock ranching No No Yes Yes

Dry land cropping No No Con Yes

Irrigated cropping No No Con Yes

Dairy farming No No Con Yes

Timber No No Con Yes

Low density rural settlement No No Con Yes

Low density urban settlement No No Con Yes

High density urban No No Con Yes

Berliner et al. 2007.

Provincial Biodiv Conservation Plan

October 2010

Should we not legislate that every farm must retain at least 25% of the habitat

intact? = “equity” investment from landowner

Irrigated cropping No No Con Yes

Land use Management Class Type

Landuse Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4

Directions: To remove carbon just add water

What Ecological Reserve Determination?

NB – Wealth Gap

Natural capital and inter-generational equity

Replace this with oranges?

Irrigate them with water we don’t have….

Send them to China with the end of oil in sight….

Climate Crime????

Suggestions

VCS REDD

VCS Spekboom restoration

Bundling = carbon equity

Local Govt, Carbon Farm, REDD+ real opportunity 1NBSAPs

LBSAPsLEAPsSDFsIDPsEMFCons Plans

EGS

EGS

EGS

Commonages – real opportunity 2 “Tragedy

of the commons” (Hardin 1968)

Good news section!

Carbon Farm No 1 – Somerset East

2400 hectares30 years contractVCS accreditation

CBD + UNFCC + UNCCD

Good news section!

Carbon Farm No 2? Baviaanskloof

• Farm size, vegetation condition, landuse type

• Optimal land use decisions (intergen equity)

• Sustainability (monitor, report, accredit)

• Empower local authorities

• Legislate Conservation Plans

• Capacitate and grow NGOS

If we are serious about biodiversity conservation in thicket……..

Ecological Support Zone (municipal boundary) Urban

Buffer Zone

+

Suggestions

Suggestions

Pilot small “thicket” city in LAB family

Cons NGOs need unity and tackle thorny issues

Monitor thicket farm by farm

Employ economic leverage (EU, carbon

footprint)

Challenge water rights and land-use decisions

Thank you

Only economists and madmen believe

in unlimited growth

James Blignaut undated (and he stole it from some other guy)

Acknowledgements:

Christo Marais, Guy Preston, Patrick Marsh, Richard Cowling, Saskia Fourie, Ayanda Sigwela, Andrew Knipe, Anthony Mills, Charlie Shackleton, Derek Clark, Brad Fike, Edwil Moore, Yolande Vermaak, Sharon Wilson, Graham Kerley, Aniela Halliday, James Blignaut, Andrew Skowno, Bool Smuts, Rhodes University, Gamtoos Irrigation Board, Wayne Erlank, Wilderness Foundation, Eastern Cape Parks Board, Bob Scholes, James Blignaut, Alan Southwood, Bas Verschuuren, Dieter van den Broeck, Matt Zylstra, Silvia Weel, Earth Collective, and Dr. Mike Cohen.