Neg1NCMaduro needs to stay true to anti-US rhetoric to maintain his political credibility and prevent domestic instabilityOReilly, 4/17 (Andrew, Founder and former Editor-in-Chief of Latin America News Dispatch, BA in journalism from the University of Pittsburgh, MA in journalism and Latin American studies from New York University; also citing Larry Birns with the Council for Hemispheric Affairs, U.S.-Venezuelan Relations Remain Tense Under Maduro, Experts Claim, Fox News Latino, 17 April 2013, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/17/us-venezuelan-relations-remain-tense-under-maduro-experts-claim/)//HOWhile the ultimate impact of the Venezuelan presidential election remains to be seen, what's for sure is that relations between the United States and the administration of President-elect Nicols Maduro will continue to be as tense as under the late Hugo Chvez, experts said. After voting on Sunday in a Caracas slum, Maduro said that while he would like to reestablish relations with the U.S. in terms of equality and respect, Washington will always try to undermine his rule. These words followed a steady rhetoric on the campaign trail of Maduro accusing the U.S. of conspiring against him and causing disruptions in Venezuela to unseat his rule, including working with opposition labor unions and causing electric power blackouts. Experts argue that given Maduros anti-American sentiments leading up to the election, as well as the controversy surrounding his victory and the polarization in Venezuela, there is little hope for a change in relations between the countries. Its hard to see [Maduro] backing off his rhetoric in the aftermath of the election...Americans will insist on a level of respect that he is not going to give them. The death of Hugo Chvez put Maduro and the rest of the Venezuelan left in a difficult position. Chvezs charisma held the movement together and his social spending allowed him to skirt the dicey issues of rising inflation, high crime and a fledgling economy. While the current election results are still being debated, how Maduro faces the countrys mounting problems both politically and socially are what will decide [if] he and Chavismo survive his six-year term. In 2009, Chvez led a successful push for a constitutional referendum that abolished term limits for the offices of President, state governors, mayors and congress members. The previous provision established a three-term limit for deputies and a two-term limit for the other offices, but with the 2009 referendum, Chvez or any other leader could ostensibly stay in power indefinitely. Maduro does not have the charm or power to hold the Chavista movement together nor make Venezuelans forget about the problems plaguing their nation. If Sundays vote is any indication, Venezuela is torn between Chvezs legacy and a dismal future, with the official results giving Maduro 51 percent of the vote to challenger Henrique Capriles 49 percent although opposition sources showed Capriles winning by more than 300,000 votes. Chvez could overcome the detractors because he was viewed as a national hero, Maduro doesnt have that, said Larry Birns with the Council for Hemispheric Affairs. To maintain his credibility within the Chavista movement and fend off opponents from within his own party, Maduro needs to maintain his opposition to the U.S. and continue to paint Americans as imperialist intruders, experts said. Hes got to worry about the opponents that will pose a threat to his rule, Birns said. These are difficult times for Maduro and no one knows how the scenario will play out. For its part, the United States is not in better shape when it comes to its relations with Venezuela or other Latin American nations. Diplomatic disputes with Venezuela and touchy relations with neighboring Bolivia and Ecuador have led to a schism between the United States and the countries in the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas.This turns the whole aff destroys oil sector and economyLadislaw and Verrastro, 13 (Sarah O. Ladislaw is co-director and senior fellow with the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Frank Verrastro is senior vice president and James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy & Geopolitics at CSIS; Post-Chavez Outlook for Venezuelan Oil Production, 6 March 2013, http://csis.org/publication/post-chavez-outlook-venezuelan-oil-production)//HOThe winds of change are once again blowing in Venezuela. The recent announcement of Hugo Chavezs passing has opened up a host of questions about the future leadership of Venezuela and the potential impact this leadership transition could have on Venezuelan oil production and global oil markets. Venezuela is one of the largest oil and natural gas resource holders in the world. It is among the worlds largest oil producers (13th) and exporters (10th) and has historically been one of the United States largest sources of oil imports (4th behind Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico). Ever since the failed coup and the subsequent strike that brought about a short collapse in oil production in 2002, followed by nationalization of the oil sector, onlookers have been waiting for indications that the regimes approach to energy production would either fail once and for all or that some political change would bring about reform and rejuvenation of the energy sector. A political transition in Venezuela is now upon us but how it evolves could mean a lot for the energy sector and global energy markets. Despite its enormous oil resources, Venezuela's oil production (regardless of whose figures you use) has long been in steady decline. In 2011 liquids production was 2.47 million barrels per day (mmbd) , down a million barrels per day since 1999. Some of this is reflects the changing cost and economics of Venezuelan oil production but field decline is significant and expertise and reinvestment are questionable and looking harder to come by. The internal technical and managerial capabilities of state run oil and gas company PDVSA have deteriorated since the 2002 strike and aftermath. Increasingly, PDVSA relies on contractors, as well as other private company partners, to keep the fields in production but reports state that contractors have not been paid in months and that the political uncertainty in the country has even driven routine decision making to a halt. The sustained political uncertainty has also slowed investment; Russian and Indian companies were planning to invest in Venezuela's oil fields but so far have withheld incremental new money. China has not announced a new line of credit or extensions on its development-linked financing since last April. At the same time that production is dropping, highly subsidized domestic consumption of oil is increasing while revenue from exports is also declining. The United States remains the largest recipient of Venezuelan oil exports at 950,000 barrels per day in 2011, roughly 40 percent, plus another 185,000 barrels per day from the Caribbean that was Venezuelan sourced but those volumes area down as U.S. demand has declined and other crudes have become available. Venezuela's next largest export destinations are the Caribbean (31 percent) and then China (around 10 percent) . Venezuela sells to many of its Caribbean neighbors at below market rates due to extremely preferential financing relationships, including additional heavy subsidies for Cuban exports. All of this culminates in an outlook for continued decline in oil production and a worsening economic outlook for Venezuela during a politically difficult time. However, conventional wisdom argues that maintaining oil production is in the interest of any regime. Revenue from oil production is such a large part of Venezuelas government balance sheet that no leadership could survive for long without a sustained cash flow that oil exports bring. The converse of this argument is that revenues generated by the energy sector are such an important source of power and influence in Venezuela that there is potential for infighting over control of the sector. Moreover, the potential for strikes or instability among groups involved in the sector (some of whom have not been paid) could have additional negative impacts on production. While oil markets have so far taken the news of Chavezs demise in stride (many claim because the news was largely expected, others because the political outcome is still so uncertain) an actual disruption in Venezuelan production could add pressure to an already difficult market outlook. The last year has produced a number of supply disruptions around the world from OPEC, the Middle East North Africa region, as well as non-OPEC sources. If the economic outlook continues to improve and yield an increase global energy demand, if Iran sanctions remain in place, and if Venezuelan production be compromised, then oil prices would experience much more significant upside pressure from any new disruptions.

2NC Link Wall

Waffling on his stance on the US causes multiple sources of internal backlashJared Metzker (writer for Inter-Press Service) June 17, 2013 Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend U.S.-Venezuela Relations http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuela-relations/The new presidents waffling may be a reflection of his tenuous grip on power. By many accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who enjoyed military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes. In addition to a strong anti-Chavista opposition that openly challenges the legitimacy of his narrowly won election, Maduro has had to deal with a split within Chavezs own former political base. Shifter pointed out that among the military, which was once a source of significant strength for Chavez, more support is given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of Venezuelas parliament and whose supporters believe he was the rightful heir to the presidency. Maduros legitimacy stems largely from his perceived ideological fidelity, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place. Shifter said this leads him to emulate his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the United States less probable.The plan makes Capriles gambit to peel away moderate support from disillusioned supporters of Maduro sustainable magnifies our linksBen Cohen (writer for Commentary Magazine) July 30, 2013 In Venezuela, Chavez Still Haunts Maduro http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/07/30/in-venezuela-chavez-still-haunts-maduro/Legal documents have similarly been missing from another controversial case involving Richard Mardo, a parliamentarian from the opposition MUD coalition. Mardo is accused of receiving funds of approximately $100 millionthe source of this money has not been specifiedand of declaring only a tiny a fraction of this sum. However, Henrique Capriles, the MUD leader who stood against Maduro during the April election, is adamant that Mardo is the victim of entrapment. As with El Nacional, the real goal here, say MUD supporters, is to silence the opposition by throwing the charge of corruptionan offense normally leveled at the governmentin its direction. Given how agonizingly polarized Venezuelan politics have become, the absence of mass street demonstrations might seem surprising. Capriles, though, has eschewed this approach, opting instead for a strategy of patiently exposing Maduros corruption wherever it appears, in the hope of weaning away disillusioned supporters of the regime. Whether this method is sustainable is an open question; the emergence of a birther movement in Venezuela, which claims that Maduro was actually born in Colombia and is demanding that the president follow Barack Obamas example by releasing his birth certificate, indicates that the more uncompromising opponents of Venezuelas regime are determined to get rid of it sooner rather than later.Plan also independently causes a military coupBenedict Mander (writer for the Financial Times, Caracas correspondent) April 7, 2013 Maduro needs militarys loyalty http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5ce622a-9f71-11e2-b4b6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2asuzlqGPFrom the moment the late Hugo Chvez first burst on to the national stage with a military coup 21 years ago, to his final resting place in the barracks where he led that failed uprising, his close connection with Venezuelas army was never in any doubt. But the former lieutenant colonels successor, Nicols Maduro, who is widely expected to win Venezuelas presidential elections on April 14, does not enjoy the same relationship with the military, whose power grew markedly under Chvez, and could now even pose a threat to Mr Maduro. Although Mr Maduro has ample experience as a trade union activist, legislator and diplomat, he may struggle to maintain the fierce loyalty that Chvez created among senior military officials, perhaps the most powerful faction in the disparate movement known as chavismo. There are concerns in the military high command about Maduro, says Antonio Rivero, a retired general who left the army in 2010 in protest at Cuban influence, and is now affiliated with the opposition. Some question Mr Maduros legitimacy, others his competence, while others are suspicious of his status as a civilian. Chvez knew how to talk to the army, he knew how to demand obedience and discipline. Maduro hasnt the slightest idea, adds Gen Rivero, describing him as the complete opposite to Chvez in the armys eyes. Its an issue that is being monitored, evaluated and discussed internally, both by chavistas and non-chavistas. The armys presence in government is strong. During the former tank commanders 14-year rule, he spread martial ideals in an attempt to achieve a civic-military union. Today, former military officers run 11 of the 20 state governorships held by Venezuelas United Socialist party, and account for a quarter of the cabinet. That includes the defence minister, Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia, who explicitly backed Chvezs handpicked successor after his death on March 5. Now more than ever, the armed forces must unite to ensure Maduro is the next elected president of all Venezuelans, the admiral said. The opposition, already scandalised by a 115,000-strong militia set up by Chvez to defend his Bolivarian revolution, strongly rejected Admiral Moleros statement, pointing out that the constitution forbids the armed forces to take sides. The opposition even claims there is a plan to use military resources to intimidate Venezuelans into voting for Mr Maduro. Mr Maduro has been backed by other key military figures too, including Diosdado Cabello, the head of the national assembly who participated alongside Chvez in the 1992 coup attempt, even though he is widely considered Mr Maduros most powerful rival. With his strong military following, some question how long that loyalty will last. Either way, the armys support is crucial for any president. Very lamentably, political power in Venezuela has always depended on two things: oil wealth and the armed forces, said Roco San Miguel, who runs Citizen Control, which monitors Venezuelan security issues. Ms San Miguel argues that the armed forces are split into opposing factions, some of which are concerned about the prospect of a Maduro presidency. Especially sensitive is how he will respond to accusations concerning a group of high-ranking officers dubbed the Cartel of the Suns, because of the gold stars worn on their epaulettes. Under Chvez, Venezuela became an important transshipment hub for trafficking cocaine to the US and Europe. Walid The Turk Makled, a drug lord captured in 2011, claims he had as many as 40 generals in his pay. Since 2008, the US Treasury Department has also accused a number of senior military and government officials of being kingpins and collaborating with the Colombian rebel group FARC, including the exchange of weapons for drugs. They include former defence minister and head of the army, Henry Rangel Silva, now governor of Trujillo state, and former interior minister and retired naval officer Ramn Rodrguez Chacn, now governor of Gurico state. The government has denied these accusations. Military officials have also been accused of involvement in other dubious activities, such as illegal gold mining after 43 soldiers were captured in southern Bolvar state by irate indigenous groups this year, and petrol smuggling, a business which could yield as much as a billion dollars each year. Whether Mr Maduro is seen as a threat or a help to the militarys interests remains to be seen. Gen Rivero thinks he may have to become very generous to keep some officers happy, through pay rises or handing out new cars. However, Venezuela may have trouble keeping up the immense spending on Russian arms that Chvez indulged in to keep the military happy. Most analysts reject the threat of a coup, but it is not inconceivable. In the last century, five years havent gone by without groups of officers being involved in conspiratorial activities, said Domingo Irwin, a Venezuelan military historian. Indeed, Hugo Chvez was one of them

UniquenessMaduro Sustainable

Maduro will stay in power now diplomatic spats are only assurances of regime stabilitySanchez, 6/4 (W. Alex, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Venezuelas Maduro attempts to assert his presidency, 4 June 2013, http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatpolitics/2013/06/04/venezuelas-maduro-attempts-to-assert-his-presidency/)//HOVenezuelan President Nicols Maduro has had a rough couple of months. After controversially winning the April 14 elections, he has been trying to strengthen his power in the eyes of the international community. Several nations whose leaders were close to his mentor, the late Hugo Chvez, have recognized Maduros victory. And in early May, he embarked on a good will tour, visiting Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay . Nevertheless, other governments are still hesitant to recognize Maduros leadership, namely the U.S. Whats more, recent diplomatic incidents, including verbal spats with the governments of Colombia and Peru, are showing a controversial side of Maduros personality and testing his leadership skills. The (latest) controversy with Colombia was prompted by a recent meeting between Governor Henrique Capriles Randonsk i, the Venezuelan opposition candidate who ran against Maduro in April, and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. Maduro saw this meeting as an insult to his government, as Capriles has been trying to rally international support to overturn the election results. Maduro derided the excuse that the Santos-Capriles meeting was a misunderstanding by the Colombian government, claiming instead that Bogot is the center of a conspiracy that aims to overthrow the post-Chvez government. In retaliation, the Venezuelan leader declared that his country may review its role in the ongoing Colombian peace process between the government and the FARC guerrillas. It is safe to assume that Santos knew beforehand that a meeting with Capriles would stir controversy in Caracas, meaning this may have been a tactical move by the Colombian head of state to see how Maduro would react. Furthermore, the extent of Venezuelas influence in the ongoing negotiations is debatable, accusations that the Colombian rebels use Venezuelan territory as a safe haven notwithstanding. In early May, Maduro also butted heads with the (now) former Peruvian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rafael Roncagliolo, who called for tolerance and dialogue to stop violent protests in Venezuela after the controversial results of the elections. This statement provoked the wrath of Maduro, who declared on May 3 that Roncagliolo should not get involved in Venezuelan domestic affairs and that we [Venezuelans] do not care what the Peruvian minister thinks about Venezuela. As for Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, who was arguably sympathetic to Chvez, he has been ambivalent regarding Maduro. Nevertheless, Humala saved himself from further embarrassment or at the very least from entering into a new war of words with Maduro as Capriles decided at the last moment to temporarily suspend a trip to Lima that had been scheduled for Tuesday, June 4. If the Peruvian leader had met with Capriles, we would have witnessed an even angrier Maduro. Meanwhile, some Peruvian politicians have not missed the opportunity to attack Humala over the Capriles trip. For example, Congressman Luis Iberico provocatively declared that the only reason why [Humala] would not receive Capriles is for ideological reasons or for another type of dependency towards Chavismo. Apart Bogot and Lima, Maduro has been unable to secure high-level visits from Chvezs friends in Moscow and Beijing. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev skipped Venezuela when he did a mini-tour of Latin America in February, traveling instead to Brazil and Cuba. At the time of this writing, Chinese President Xi Jinping is on a tour of the Western Hemisphere, with stops planned in Costa Rica, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, as well as the U.S. but no Caracas. Given that the opposition movement led by Capriles has lost its momentum, it is unlikely that Maduros presidency is in jeopardy. And while Capriles trips to Bogot and to Lima, if the latter ever happens, may gain him some international sympathy, it seems clear that Maduro will remain in power as Chvezs successor. If anything, statements towards the governments of Colombia and Peru may serve the purpose of making it clear that Maduro will not tolerate any questioning of his electoral victory. At the domestic level, look for the pro-government media (read the entire media following the sale of Globovision ) to showcase that message to the Venezuelan masses as an example of Maduros statesmanship.Anti-US

No engagement now Maduro cut off all ties with the USEl Universal, 7/20 (El Universal, Maduro: Venezuela will have "zero tolerance" for aggressions of Washington, 20 July 2013, http://english.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130720/maduro-venezuela-will-have-zero-tolerance-for-aggressions-of-washingto)//HOVenezuelan President Nicols Maduro on Saturday described as "terminated" his government-initiated talks with Barack Obama administration. He stressed he would implement a "zero tolerance" policy for "aggressions" on Venezuela. "My policy as president is zero tolerance for gringo aggression against Venezuela. I am not going to stand any verbal aggression against Venezuela, neither political nor diplomatic. Enough is enough! Stay away with your empire. Do not mess any more with Venezuela," said Maduro during a ceremony of military promotions in Cojedes state, central Venezuela. The Venezuelan president also reiterated his rejection and condemnation of the statements issued by Samantha Power, the Washington ambassador nominee to the United Nations, on Venezuela. "When she went to Congress, she went crazy and started to attack Venezuela just like that. She started to say that she is going to the UN to monitor and make clear what the repression on political and civil institutions in Venezuela is, and that she will address the lack of democracy in Venezuela." Maduro mentioned a phone call US Secretary of State John Kerry made to Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elas Jaua. According to Maduro, the Venezuelan foreign minister warned the US top diplomat that Venezuela will not accept any pressures in connection with Caracas' offer to grant asylum to former CIA agent Edward Snowden, who is charged with leaking classified information on espionage programs.

Maduros Snowden offer proves anti-americans sentiment is still strong in Venezuela Wall Street Journal, 7/7/13, (OGrady, staff writer, Why Venezuela Offers Asylum to Snowden, 7/07/2013, U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578590503856740838.html)//LOH

Edward Snowden, the former U.S. government contractor wanted for leaking sensitive national intelligence, is a victim of "persecution" by "the world's most powerful empire," Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro said on Friday. Mr. Maduro offered asylum to the fugitive, who was running out of prospects. Nicaragua and Bolivia have chimed in with similar offers. What plans are afoot to spirit Mr. Snowden from his Moscow airport sanctuaryassuming he accepts refuge in Latin Americaare of course secret. Mr. Maduro would have us believe that his gesture is a demonstration of Venezuela's commitment to free speech and its fierce opposition to withholding information from the public. He also wants the world to know that he disapproves of secret government intelligence-gathering operations. Funny that. Venezuela has expressed no such righteous indignation about information suppression by allies. Take Argentina, which has recently refused to allow its special prosecutor Alberto Nisman to travel to Washington and brief a U.S. congressional committee about intelligence collected on Iranian and Hezbollah terror cells in the Western Hemisphere. Mr. Nisman's 500-page report on the subject is public but in a July 1 letter to the U.S. Congress he said that by order of the Argentine attorney general he has been "denied the authorization to testify before the honorable parliament." Mr. Maduro's lack of concern about Argentina's information suppression deserves attention. His offer of refuge to Mr. Snowden is most easily explained as an attempt to distract Venezuelans from the increasingly difficult daily economic grind and get them to rally around the flag by putting a thumb in Uncle Sam's eye. Yet there is something else. Venezuela has reason to fear increasing irrelevance as North America becomes more energy independent. This makes Iran crucial. Mr. Maduro may be trying to establish himself as a leader as committed to the anti-American cause as was his predecessor, Hugo Chvez, who had a strong personal bond with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He also needs to establish his own place in South American politics. Reaching out to Mr. Snowden is a way to send a message to the world that notwithstanding Secretary of State John Kerry's feeble attempt at rapprochement with Caracas last month, post-Chvez Venezuela has no intention of changing the course of the Bolivarian revolution. Rather, as the economy of the once-wealthy oil nation deteriorates, Mr. Maduro is signaling that Venezuela wants to become an even more loyal geopolitical ally and strategic partner of Russia and Iran. Mr. Maduro's presidency is still viewed as illegitimate by roughly half of the Venezuelan electorate, who voted for challenger Henrique Capriles in April. The official rate of the currency known as the "strong bolvar" is 6.3 to the dollar. But a shortage of greenbacks has forced importers into the black market where the currency trades at somewhere between 31 and 37. There are price controls on just about everything, producing shortages of food and medicine. Even so, inflation is now hovering at around 35%, which means that some vendors are skirting government mandates. In a free society with competitive elections, economic chaos generally prompts a government response designed to mitigate hardship. Venezuela needs liberalization. But that would threaten the profits of the military, which is largely running the country. When the nation ran out of toilet paper in the spring, it was the perfect metaphor for the failed state. But Mr. Maduro's foreign minister, Elias Jaua, responded by scolding Venezuelans for materialism, asking, "Do you want a fatherland or toilet paper?" If the government is saying that it doesn't give a damn about the economic death spiral, this is because it believes it has the nation in a head lock. State control of informationby a president who has now become the world's foremost defender of Mr. Snowdenis almost complete. The last large independent cable television station was finally sold in April and the independent print media market is shrinking. Another tool of repression, which Mr. Snowden supposedly abhors, is the ability to spy on citizens. Chvez had no compunction about recording the conversations of adversaries, and the practice continues under Mr. Maduro. Competing factions inside the government may even be getting into the act. Two recent high-profile casesone involving a well-known government insider alleging crimes by members of the government in a conversation with the Cuban military, and another targeting an opposition politicianhave increased the feeling among citizens that there is no such thing as a private conversation. Yet even a government that locks down the press and spies on its own citizens without answering for it needs allies. No nation can survive in full isolation, especially when its economic power collapses. Latin despots get this. Argentina is depositing goodwill in its account with Iran by blocking Alberto Nisman's trip to Washington. Venezuela, by offering refuge to Edward Snowden, is undoubtedly making a similar offering to the enemies of its enemies.

No coop nowSnowden killed any potential for Venezuela-US engagementAhmed, 7/28 (Soroor, Snowden helps revive anti-US feelings in Latin America, NVO News, 28 July 2013, http://nvonews.com/2013/07/28/snowden-helps-revive-anti-us-feelings-in-latin-america-2/)//HOThe Presidents of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, of Bolivia Evo Morales and of Nicaragua Daniel Ortega are ready to offer Snowden asylum. In fact apart from Morales, Maduro and Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa were recently in Moscow to attend energy summit. Besides other issues Snowden was definitely high on agenda during the meetings with Russian leaders. These Latin American countries have also developed close trade relationship with China, which too is a cause of concern for the United States. Maduro said Venezuela was ready to offer him sanctuary, and that the details Snowden had revealed of US spy programme had exposed the nefarious schemes of the empire while Ortega said that it had received an asylum request from Snowden and could agree to it if circumstances permit. Though Brazil, the largest country of the region, had not offered any asylum reports suggest that it is much disturbed over snooping by the NSA. The country is already passing through a phase of turmoil ahead of 2014 World Cup. Its foreign minister, Antonio Patriota, expressed deep concern over a report that appeared in O Globo newspaper at the weekend, which detailed how the US National Security Agency (NSA) had conducted extensive spying activities in Brazil. This came after the Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, called in cabinet ministers to discuss the issue. Brazil is among the most heavily spied country after Russia, China and Pakistan. It remains to be seen as to why the NSA chose to spy non-adversarial countries of Europe, Asia and even Latin America. In this uni-polar world it was expected that the anti-US feelings would subside. There was no Soviet or Chinese-backed Communist ideology to whip up this passion. Obama, in his initial years, did try to extent the hands of friendship towards them. But NSA leaks have exposed everything once again. The exploitation of almost all the countries south of the United States by Washington is not a new phenomenon. It has a long history. The CIA has in the past killed a number of Latin American heads of states. Staging coups and counter-coups were not something unusual. Snowdens revelationsand earlier WikiLeaks exposureshave made it clear that the United States have not given up its practice. The role of European countries appear some what dubious. Though they are the victims of NSA design yet they eagerly agreed to the Washington diktat and got the plane of an elected President of a country grounded. Thus like the United States they have alienated themselves from these countries, some of them energy rich. In the long run they may have to pay the price.Default to newest evidence Venezuela has no intention of cooperating with the US despite past signalsMinaya 13 (Ezequiel, Venezuela Ends Attempt to Repair Diplomatic Relations With U.S., July 20, The Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323993804578618223346497776.html)//DLGThe Venezuelan government has ended fledgling efforts to repair diplomatic relations with Washington in protest of comments made earlier in the week by Samantha Power, the nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, who grouped the South American country among nations carrying out a "crackdown on civil society." Venezuela's foreign ministry released a statement late Friday that "categorically rejected" Ms. Power's statement and criticized the State Department for backing U.S. President Barack Obama's choice for envoy to the U.N. amid the controversy. The ministry statement said that steps that began last month to normalize diplomatic ties between Washington and Caracas have been shelved. In June, Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Venezuelan counterpart on the sidelines of the general assembly of the Organization of American States held in Guatemala. The meeting brought together the most senior officials from the estranged countries since Mr. Obama shook hands with Venezuela's then-leader Hugo Chvez in 2009. After the meeting between the top diplomats, both sides expressed hope that more talks would follow aimed at repairing relations. The countries have not traded ambassadors since 2010. "With the backing of the state department for the interventionist agenda presented by the candidate for ambassador, Samantha Power, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela leaves for finished the processes initiated in the conversations of Guatemala," Venezuela's foreign ministry statement said. During her nomination hearing before the U.S. senate committee on foreign relations Wednesday, Ms. Power said that as ambassador to the U.N., she would "stand up against repressive regimes, fight corruption, and promote human rights and human dignity." Part of that battle meant "contesting the crackdown on civil society being carried out in countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela," she added, according to an official transcript. In a Friday briefing with reporters in Washington, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf called Ms. Power an "outstanding nominee," and added that "we fully stand by her." Relations between Caracas and Washington have been strained since Mr. Chavez assumed the presidency in 1999. The fiery socialist called longtime U.S. foe Fidel Castro his mentor and was among the loudest opponents of U.S. influence in the region, often referring to the U.S. as the "empire." Mr. Chavez routinely accused the U.S. of plotting to overthrow his government and reserved some of his most scathing comments for former U.S. President George W. Bush. Mr. Chavez died in March after a nearly two-year battle with cancer. Mr. Chavez's political heir, recently elected President Nicols Maduro, has followed in the footsteps of his predecessor and aimed harsh rhetoric at Washington, which angered the new leader by backing calls for a recount of his slim election victory in April. Despite the campaign-trail saber-rattling directed toward the U.S., Mr. Maduro and his government sent signals hinting at hopes for better relations with the U.S. that culminated in the June meeting with Mr. Kerry. Those hopes were seriously jeopardized when Caracas stepped into the middle of the controversy surrounding U.S. National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden and offered him asylum in early July. Venezuela is widely seen as among Mr. Snowden's most likely destinations.

Relations and interactions are down the drainPTV 13 Press TV, (No dialogue unless US changes imperialistic stance: Venezuela, July 24, 2013, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/07/24/315416/us-must-end-imperialistic-stance-maduro/)//sawyerVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro says Caracas-Washington ties could not be normalized unless the US ends its imperialistic attitude towards Latin America.Improved relations with the United States does not depend on just us, it depends on them (US). If they can rectify (this) and are able to, which I doubt, there will be another position; we will renew dialogue, Maduro told a cheering audience in the Caribbean state of Monagas on Tuesday. On Friday, Venezuela said it was ending efforts to improve ties with Washington that started in early June. The decision followed remarks by US President Barack Obamas nominee for US ambassador to the United Nations. During her confirmation hearing before a US Senate committee on July 17, Samantha Power pledged to oppose what she called a crackdown on civil society in a number of countries, including Venezuela. On July 18, Maduro denounced Powers remarks as outrageous and demanded an immediate correction by the US government. Venezuela and the United States have not exchanged ambassadors since 2010. But on the sidelines of a regional summit in Guatemala in June, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua agreed that officials would soon meet for talks that could lead to an exchange of envoys. But the strain in relations between the two nations have intensified following the US support for Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who disputed the results of the April presidential election, in which Maduro won the race with nearly 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for Capriles. In March, Caracas expelled two US military attaches on charges of making attempts to foment instability in Venezuela. Recently, Venezuela has offered asylum to Edward Snowden, a former technical contractor for the US National Security Agency (NSA) who is wanted in the United States for leaking details of Washingtons secret surveillance programs.

No cooperation now Snowden, Power statementAP 13 Associated Press (maduro demands retraction, July 18, 2013, http://www.sacbee.com/2013/07/18/5577833/maduro-demands-retraction.html)//sawyerVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has lashed out at Washington's U.N. ambassador-designate for what he called her "despicable" criticism of his government's human rights record.Maduro demanded Thursday evening that the United States retract Samantha Power's statement that Venezuela, along with Cuban, Iran and Russia, is guilty of a "crackdown on civil society."Power spoke Wednesday during confirmation hearings before a U.S. Senate committee.Hopes were raised for improved U.S.-Venezuelan ties in June when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua met on the sidelines of a regional summit and agreed to fast-track talks for resuming ambassadorial-level ties absent since 2010.But prospects dimmed after Maduro later offered asylum to U.S. leaker Edward Snowden.

Recent controversy over Senate confirmation hearings derail further bilateral engagement BBC News 7/20, Section of the British Broadcasting Corporation responsible for gathering and broadcasting news and current events. It is the world's largest broadcasting news organization(BBC, "Venezuela 'ends' bid to restore full US ties" 7/20/13, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23387807)//ADVenezuela says it has "ended" steps towards restoring diplomatic ties with the US, after comments by the woman nominated as the next envoy to the UN. Samantha Power said this week she would seek to combat what she called the "crackdown on civil society" in countries including Venezuela. She was speaking at a US Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday. The remarks prompted an angry response from Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro. "The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela hereby ends the process... of finally normalising our diplomatic relations," said Venezuela's foreign ministry in a statement. It objected to Ms Power's "interventionist agenda", noting that her "disrespectful opinions" were later endorsed by the state department, "contradicting in tone and in content" earlier statements by Secretary of State John Kerry. Poor relations Relations between the US and Venezuela have been strained in recent years. They last had ambassadors in each other's capitals in 2010. Washington angered Caracas by backing the Venezuelan opposition's demand for a full recount of the presidential election in April to replace Hugo Chavez, who died in March. Mr Chavez's anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, won the vote by less than two percentage points. In June, the two countries had tentatively agreed to work towards improving their strained relations, after Venezuela freed and deported a US filmmaker who had been held on conspiracy charges. During a regional summit in Guatemala, Mr Kerry said he had agreed with Foreign Minister Elias Jaua on an "ongoing, continuing dialogue" in order to "establish a more constructive and positive relationship". He said the US wanted to "begin to change the dialogue between our countries and hopefully quickly move the appointments of ambassadors between our nations". Mr Jaua said at the time that for Venezuela it was important to build a relationship based on the principles of mutual respect and no interference in internal affairs.

AT: Chavez DeathChavez death wont boost relations anti-US posture will remainSullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 4-9-13 (Mark, Hugo Chvezs Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAGWhile some observers contend that Chvezs passing and the beginning of a new political era in Venezuela could ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation that this will happen quickly. In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that the upcoming electoral campaign could delay any forward movement in improving bilateral relations.14 Just hours before Chvezs death on March 5, Vice President Maduro announced that two U.S. military attachs were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly attempting to provoke dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to blame Chvezs sickness on the United States. State Department officials strongly denied the Venezuelan charges regarding the attachs, and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington).15 Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chvez government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that this is being employed by the PSUV once again in the current presidential campaign. On March 20, 2013, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking about improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of comments that Jacobson had made in a Spanish newspaper; Jacobson had said that Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent elections. A senior U.S. official reportedly said that such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over whether bilateral relations will be able to be improved with a Maduro government.16 Another strange accusation by Maduro is that two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the State Department strongly rejected the allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.17 Looking ahead, some observers contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized as a potential new PSUV government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating economy.

OilVenezuela will continue to oppose US engagement despite the oil relationship oil is the exception, not the ruleHelios Global, 13 (Helios Global, an asset tracking company with global presence, Change in Venezuela Yields Political and Economic Uncertainty, 29 April 2013, http://www.heliosglobalinc.com/world-trends-watch/?p=152)//HONicholas Maduros narrow electoral triumph over opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski in Venezuelas April 14 elections to serve out the remainder of the late president Hugo Chavezs current presidential term signifies a turning point in Venezuelan politics. Maduros victory has also reverberated beyond Venezuelas borders. Due to its role as a major source of oil, the course of political events in Venezuela also has important implications for the world economy. The death of Hugo Chavez has also raised concerns about the prospects of social, political, and economic stability in Venezuela. The victory of Chavezs heir apparent Chavez and his supporters went to great lengths to ensure the survival of the Bolivarian Revolution launched by Chavezs United Socialist Party of Venezuela (known by its Spanish acronym PSUV) in a politically charged and polarized climate has already resulted in unrest and violence between Maduros supporters and his opponents. Venezuelas increasingly dire economic predicament has further exacerbated tensions across the country. Despite a contentious bilateral relationship, Venezuela remains the fourth-largest supplier of imported oil to the United States. Given the peculiarities of its oil, namely, the category of relatively low quality heavy crude oil that represents the bulk of its oil capacity, Venezuela relies heavily on U.S. refineries located in the Gulf of Mexico that were designed to refine oil from Venezuela (and Mexico). Roughly forty-percent of Venezuelas oil exports are delivered to the United States. Consequently, the United States is Venezuelas top trade partner. This is the case even as U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil have steadily declined in recent years. In 1997, the United States imported about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from Venezuela. In contrast, only about 1 million bpd of Venezuelan oil makes its way to the United States today. Venezuela also boasts major natural gas reserves, possibly the second-largest natural gas reserves in the Western Hemisphere. At the same time, Venezuelas oil production capacity continues to deteriorate due to mismanagement, corruption, and antiquated infrastructure. With its emphasis on South-South cooperation, Latin American integration, and opposition to what it refers to as U.S. imperialism, Venezuelas foreign policy has largely reflected its Bolivarian Revolutionary principles. Even as it has continued to serve as a major source of crude oil to the United States, Venezuela has also devoted significant diplomatic and economic resources toward checking U.S. influence in the Americas. Initiatives such as its Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (known by its Spanish acronym ALBA) have served to expand Venezuelas influence across the region. This support has come in the form of diplomatic and, especially, economic assistance to governments led by leftist political parties and movements that are often enmeshed in their own disputes with the United States, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. Venezuela has also supported a number of militant groups in the region, most notably, the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym FARC) in neighboring Colombia. Venezuela has also engaged closely with other left-leaning governments across the region, including Brazil, a rising regional and geopolitical power in its own right that is slowly emerging as a challenger to the United States.

Maduro will stay in power despite Venezuelas oil wealthOBrien-Bours, 13 (Robinson, BA in History and Political Science from Ashland University, Venezuela Election Results 2013: Maduro Pulls Razor-Thin Victory Over Capriles, April 2013, https://www.policymic.com/articles/35011/venezuela-election-results-2013-maduro-pulls-razor-thin-victory-over-capriles)//HO If Maduro is able to hold onto power in the OPEC nation, his rule will see a continued deterioration in U.S.-Venezuelan relations. The former bus driver has publicly accused the United States of assassinating Hugo Chavez, and is widely expected to continue his predecessor's bellicose rhetoric towards the United States. Maduro will also maintain Chavez's socialist revolution, to the further detriment of Venezuela's economy, safety, and liberty. The six years that he will sit in the presidential palace will likely see Venezuela continue to squander its natural resources like oil. The razor-thin vote margin places Maduro on considerably weaker footing than originally anticipated. He was not handed an electoral mandate, and the Venezuelan people made it clear that they are not as willing to place their trust in Nicolas Maduro as they were in Hugo Chavez. However, his victory does ensure that Chavez's legacy will remain intact and that the ghost of Chavez will remain in power for the next six years. But Maduro is no Chavez; he lacks the skill and charisma of his predecessor. He will help Chavez's legacy, yes, but he will help by reinforcing it as a legacy of economic disaster and eroding civil rights. Over the next six years, this narrow majority will reap what it has sown.

Inner-Circle

Maduros regime is stable, but at risk he has to maintain cohesion among the Chavistas to stay in power AFP, 7/27 (Agence France-Presse, Maduro tested as Venezuela's economy worsens, 27 July 2013, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130727/maduro-tested-venezuelas-economy-worsens)//HOA hundred days after taking office, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has withstood opposition challenges to his election but is now being put to the test by a deepening economic crisis. "Maduro has won the battle of legitimacy with the opposition," said political analyst John Magdaleno, who said the president's political standing is secure both inside and outside the country. The hand-picked successor to the charismatic Hugo Chavez, Maduro boasted of his government's staying power this week at a celebration marking the birthday of Simon Bolivar, the 19th century South American independence hero Chavistas revere. "It's not 100 days. It's 100 years that the revolution will be here: 100 years of the Bolivarian, Chavista, socialist revolution," Maduro declared. The street violence, marches and counter-marches, and bitter exchanges of insults that followed Maduro's slender victory in the polls now appear to be behind him. Though the election results are still disputed by opposition rival Henrique Capriles, tensions have eased in Venezuela. "The intensity of the confrontation, the frequency of the verbal disputes, have gone down," said Magdaleno. But the president still must show he can keep the Chavista ranks united and assert control over the decision-making process, he cautioned. Since coming to office, Maduro has met with representatives of the business sector, owners of private media companies, and labor and religious leaders. He has also visited various Latin American countries, and assumed the rotating leadership of Mercosur, a South American trading bloc that Venezuela recently joined as a full member. "Maduro has been gradually steadying himself, using stagecraft and propaganda, but he still must take concrete steps," said Maxim Ross, an economist at the Universidad Monte Avila. Pollster Luis Vicente Leon said that, strikingly, Maduro has dared to involve himself in two issues that Chavez had always managed to avoid: corruption and crime. "Chavez could avoid the issue because he did not pay a political price for the insecurity: he wasn't seen as responsible for it, and he just didn't talk about the noose in the hanged man's house," Leon wrote in the local press. Over the past weeks, Capriles, the young opposition leader who galvanized the opposition in two election campaigns after years of losses to Chavez, has pursued a "crusade for the truth" both inside and outside the country, with mixed results. He was received by the presidents of Colombia and Chile, to the fury of the Maduro government, but not by those of Mexico and Peru. As he awaits a Supreme Court decision on his three month old challenge to the election results, the Miranda state governor faces an uphill battle in keeping his base motivated. But he did succeed in creating doubt about the honesty of Venezuela's election authorities. "Although the electoral challenge no longer has the same relevance, the doubt did take hold. About half the country did not think the results were correct," Magdaleno said. "He will continue making charges, probably going to international fora, but I don't think this will have enough of an impact to turn the legitimacy of the Maduro government, which is calculating the exact timing to produce the sentence of the Supreme Court so as to undo the opposition electorate," he said. The risks of economic decline What could put Maduro at risk is the deepening impact on Venezuelans of a worsening economy, which experts say is rooted in stringent exchange controls in place since 2003 in an oil-exporting country that relies heavily on imports. The burdensome red tape and restrictions on businesses seeking dollars delay imports, generate shortages of stapes and raw materials, and at the same time exert powerful inflationary pressures. The first quarter closed with record inflation of 25 percent, which exceeded pay increases, and shortages of basic goods are the worst they have been in recent years. "There is erosion of salaries and jobs, there will be inflation, the problem of food shortages will continue. The coming months will be ones of economic deterioration that could lead to social conflict," said Ross. The government has responded by opening somewhat the spigot through auctions of dollars, but experts say it has not been enough. Venezuela also has taken actions to crack down on price gouging and has arrested some public officials for corruption, but at the same time has continued to run up deficits and engage in expropriations. A poll by Datanalisis published this week found 58 percent of Venezuelans view the economic situation negatively, and more than 52 percent of Chavistas believe the government should work with the private sector to reactivate the economy.

Links

GenericMaduro has cut off ties with the US the plan would force him to backpedalBercovitch, 7-21-13 (Sascha, With Zero Tolerance to Gringo Aggression, Maduro Cuts Off Venezuela-U.S. Talks Venezuela Analysis, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9872)//JAGThe conversations that were started a month and a half ago between Venezuela and the United States have definitively ended, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced yesterday at an event of the Strategic Regions of Integral Defense (REDI) in Cojedes state. My policy is zero tolerance to gringo aggression against Venezuela. I'm not going to accept any aggression, whether it be verbal, political, or diplomatic. Enough is enough. Stay over there with your empire, don't involve yourselves anymore in Venezuela, he said. The announcement comes after controversial statements from Samantha Powers, President Barack Obamas nominee for U.S. envoy to the United Nations, who testified to the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on Wednesday that she would fight against what she called a crackdown on civil society being carried out in countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. In a statement written on Friday that marks the last communication between the two countries, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua wrote, The preoccupation expressed by the U.S. government regarding the supposed repression of civil society in Venezuela is unacceptable and unfounded. To the contrary, Venezuela has amply demonstrated that it possesses a robust system of constitutional guarantees to preserve the unrestricted practice and the respect of fundamental human rights, as the UN has recognized on multiple occasions. Jaua spoke with US Secretary of State John Kerry in a meeting in Guatemala last month that Kerry described as the beginning of a good, respectful relationship. However, relations cooled after Bolivian President Evo Morales presidential plane was prevented from entering the airspace of four European countries following false information that U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden was on board, and Maduros subsequent offer of political asylum to Snowden. I told Jaua to convey to Kerry [in June] that we are ready to have relations within the framework of equality and respect, Maduro said yesterday. If they respect us, we respect them. But the time has run out for them to meddle in the internal affairs of our countries and publically attack us. Their time has run out, in general in Latin America, and in particular with us. Neither country has had an ambassador in the other nation since 2010, when late Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez refused the entrance of newly-appointed US Ambassador to Venezuela Larry Palmer for blatantly disrespectful remarks, and Venezuelan Ambassador to the US Bernardo Alvarez was expelled from the country several days later. Venezuela has a negative attitude toward US relations despite Chavez deathSullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 4-9-13 (Mark, Hugo Chvezs Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAGWhile some observers contend that Chvezs passing and the beginning of a new political era in Venezuela could ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation that this will happen quickly. In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that the upcoming electoral campaign could delay any forward movement in improving bilateral relations.14 Just hours before Chvezs death on March 5, Vice President Maduro announced that two U.S. military attachs were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly attempting to provoke dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to blame Chvezs sickness on the United States. State Department officials strongly denied the Venezuelan charges regarding the attachs, and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington).15 Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chvez government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that this is being employed by the PSUV once again in the current presidential campaign. On March 20, 2013, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking about improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of comments that Jacobson had made in a Spanish newspaper; Jacobson had said that Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent elections. A senior U.S. official reportedly said that such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over whether bilateral relations will be able to be improved with a Maduro government.16 Another strange accusation by Maduro is that two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the State Department strongly rejected the allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.17 Looking ahead, some observers contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized as a potential new PSUV government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating economy.

Ties to military elites necessitates a confrontational policy towards the USShinkman, National Security Reporter for US News and World Report, 4-24-13 (Paul, Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond? http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond) //JAGHe also cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press conference in Tehran in 2010, "We are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism." These relationships are controlled by a group of military elites within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives him enough support to keep the country and its shadow commerce stable enough to continue its usual business. "[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."Pro-US policies drain Maduros military and elite support. Shinkman, 13 --- national security reporter at U.S. News and World Report (4/24/2013, Paul D., Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond? New Venezuelan president at a crossroads for major threat to U.S., http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond, SJ)

"[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. [CHART: What the DEA Refuses to Admit About Drugs] U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."Plan threatens Maduros legitimacy and distracts from structural problems. Shifter, 13 --- president of the Inter-American Dialogue (5/3/2013, Michael, What Does the Future Hold for U.S.-Venezuela Relations? http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3297, SJ)

A: Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue: "The prospects for improved relations between the United States and Venezuela under the Maduro administration now appear rather dim. Maduro's rhetoric directed at Washington has been notably tough and aggressive, as he seeks to shore up support among the Chavista base. Arresting a U.S. citizen and accusing him of stirring up trouble in Venezuela is a vintage Chvez tactic, aimed at diverting attention from the country's myriad, fundamental problems. Lacking Chvez's political skills and common touch, Maduro is in a particularly shaky position, compounded by questions of legitimacy following the April 14 elections. To date, personnel picks and policy signals coming out of the administration have been confusing and mixed. Some in Maduro's team are hardliners, while others, such as Calixto Ortega--the recently appointed representative in Washington--are more open and moderate. Ortega, for example, was very active in the so-called Boston Group, an effort that sought to facilitate dialogue between Chavista and opposition lawmakers. As long as Maduro's political standing remains precarious, he will be severely constrained in his ability to pursue closer ties with the United States. There is no appetite or interest in Washington to adopt punitive measures and apply sanctions against Venezuela. In light of Maduro's confrontational rhetoric and actions--and disturbing incidents of violence--no one is calling for a rapprochement. Still, assuming that things begin to settle down, and given that other governments have already recognized Maduro, it would be surprising if Washington didn't eventually come around and deal with the practical reality."Plan drains Maduros PC and triggers riots. Alic, 13 --- geopolitical analyst, co-founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo (4/15/2013, Jen, Foreign Oil & Gas Companies Look to Status Quo in Venezuela, http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/Foreign-Oil-Gas-Companies-Look-to-Status-Quo-in-Venezuela.html, SJ)

The narrow vote will not be without its challenges. Opposition rival candidate Henrique Capriles has refused to recognize the results and is demanding a recount, though the electoral commission is standing firm on Maduros victory. For foreign oil and gas companies, we can expect more of the same. There are no regulatory changes in the works, and an unattractive windfall tax system announced in January will likely be pushed forward under Maduro. What Maduro is inheriting, though, is a nightmare situation that will see him stuck between using PDVSA to fund expensive social programs that cost it $44 billion last year alone diverted from oil revenues, and cutting social spending or allowing a rise in the price of fuel that could spark regime-threatening unrest. If Maduro feels compelled to reduce fuel subsidies, it could lead to riots as cheap fuelwhich cannot be sustainedis one of the most crucial social benefits for Venezuelans, who pay around 6 cents per gallon. Maduro has inherited a sinking ship and does not appear to have the political capital to make any short-term changes in Venezuelas energy policy, experts at Southern Pulse told Oilprice.com. The main energy issue for Venezuela is that oil production is struggling, down from a peak of about 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998 to less than 2.8 million bpd now. One would hope that fixing infrastructure, completing refinery repairs and construction, and investing in exploration and new technology would be priorities but Maduro will not have funds to invest unless he makes controversial cuts to social programs, according to Southern Pulse, which does not believe that Maduro will attempt to cut fuel subsidies any time soon. A top priority for Maduro will be boosting refining capacity, says Southern Pulse. Towards this end, Maduro may be willing to negotiate if a partner steps forward to build a new refinery, which is a goal Chavez failed to realize. Close victory means Maduros PC is vulnerable. Meacham, 13 --- director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (4/16/2013, Carl, Venezuela Post-Election: Can Maduro Govern? http://csis.org/publication/venezuela-post-election-can-maduro-govern, SJ)

In many ways, the results reflect a disaster for Maduro and likely signify the continued decline of Venezuelas economy. The results also mean that political divisions within Maduro's coalition will worsen. Maduros lack of political experience and weak political base caused many to wonder how he might hold together the numerous factions that make up the PSUV, even with an easy victory. Now, with the elections' close results, how Maduro responds to voters frustrations, from high inflation to rising violent crime rates, will come under increasing scrutiny. If Maduro is unable to secure quick improvements in these arenas, he may find himself facing a quick backlash from former supporters. Diosdado Cabello, head of the National Assembly and widely considered Maduros main rival, raised eyebrows by tweeting during election night that the PSUV needed to undergo a period of self-criticism. This was viewed by many as Cabello trying to increase his appeal with those moderate Chavistas who voted for Capriles. Lacking the strong base of support and resounding electoral victories that Chvez enjoyed, Maduro is likely to find rival factions within the PSUV more assertive. Add to this a reinvigorated opposition, and prospects for Maduros ability to run the state appear poor at best. Maduro's narrow victory also dashes any expectations that he might turn pragmatic when dealing with such issues as the Venezuelan economy. Maduros first goal will likely be to show himself in charge and to satisfy Chavistas. This will likely lead to a doubling-down of Chvezs policies and to profligate spending on social programs within Venezuela.

Maduro wont cooperate with US anti-Americanism key to credibility as he assumes powerLabott 13 (Elise, U.S.-Venezuela relations likely to remain tense after Chavez, March 6, CNN, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/06/u-s-venezuela-relations-likely-to-remain-tense-after-chavez/)//DLGBut in the words of one senior official, the outreach to Caracas has been a "rocky road." Talks have been short on substance and never left U.S. officials with the feeling Venezuela was interested in mending fences. Maduro's first news conference, a good portion of which was devoted to railing against the United States, was not very encouraging. As he prepares to stand in upcoming elections to replace Chavez, Maduro's anti-American rhetoric is dismissed in the United States as political jockeying to shore up his political base. This tried-and-true method of using America as straw man worked for Chavez, which is why U.S. officials acknowledge that the campaign season not be the best time to break new ground or expect tangible progress. Officials say they will continue to speak out in favor of a more productive relationship between the two countries, but the ball, officials say, is firmly in Venezuela's court. "The opportunities are not there yet for the U.S. to engage" says Carl Meacham of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "For the next month or so, Maduro has to show he is even more Chavez than Chavez was. That means he is going to be more anti-American, more anti-capitalist, more anti-systemic. As far as a rapprochement, I don't see it coming anytime soon." How Venezuela conducts those elections will be a major test. For years Washington had accused Chavez and his supporters of abusing the electoral system by intimidating opposition and controlling the media during his 14-year rule. Now, the United States has made clear it expects a free and fair election in accordance with Venezuela's Constitution and charters. While Venezuela's relationship with the United States revolved around Chavez, it is unlikely his death will dramatically affect ties in the near term. If, as expected, Maduro wins the presidency, the new boss will likely be the same as the old one. "Chavez's supporters and their Chavismo ideological movement were dealt a blow with the death of their charismatic leader, but his ministers have been preparing for this transition, and the challenge to all sides will be measured in weeks and months, not days" said Dan Restrepo, who served as an adviser to Obama at the National Security Council during his first term. With crime at an all-time high, continued drug-trafficking and a faltering oil sector, Meacham says the new Venezuelan government will be looking inward for the foreseeable future. "The U.S. doesn't want to be in a situation where it is viewed at all as getting involved in domestic affairs of Venezuela," he says. "If Maduro wins, he will be trying to keep the focus on domestic issues, and that could put the resolve of Chavismo to the test. And that could mean the hardest days between the U.S. and Venezuela is not behind us, but ahead of us."Venezuela rejects talks with the US hardening anti-US sentiment Democratic Underground, 7/20/13, (From the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Cancillera Vzla, Venezuela has terminated talks with the United States, 7/20/2013, http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023300822)//LOH

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs categorically rejects the statements issued to the Foreign Relations Committee of the U.S. Senate, by Samantha Power, candidate for Ambassador of that country to the Organization of the United Nations, where she claimed it would be part of her work to "fight the repression of civil society" conducted by several countries, among them Venezuela. Her disrespectful opinions were endorsed and supported by the State Department today, contradicting the tone and content of the statements made by the Secretary of State John Kerry, in his June meetings with the Chancellor of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Elias Jaua, in the city of Antigua, Guatemala. The concerns expressed by the U.S. government about the alleged repression in Venezuela into civil society are unacceptable and unfounded; on the contrary, the Bolivarian Government of Venezuela has amply demonstrated that it possesses a strong system of constitutional guarantees to preserve the practice of and unconditional respect for fundamental human rights, as has been recognized by the United Nations on many occasions and situations (scenarios). However, the world constantly expresses concern about the repressive practices exercised by the United States, including the violation of human rights in the illegal internment camp of Guantanamo, the massacres of civilians by drones and the lamentable persecution unleashed against Edward Snowden, a victim of fierce repression, for exercising his right to dissent and denouncing practices of the Government of the United States which violate, among other things, the right to privacy of all people in the world, enshrined in Article 12 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, in addition to the blatant intent to violate the rules governing the right to asylum, widely recognized by civilized nations. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela reiterates that, as has been expressed by the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, in order to build a good relationship with the U.S. government, requires practicing mutual respect and the full and total recognition of the principles of sovereignty and self-determination. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela will never accept interference of any kind in its internal affairs. Due to the backing of the State Department for interventionist agenda raised by the candidate Ambassador, Samatha Power, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela terminates the processes initiated during the Guatemala talks, which were designed to stabilize our diplomatic relations.

Maduros anti-US policy is key to the dominance of the inner Chavista circleWalser, 13 (Ray, Ph.D., MA, BA in International Relations from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, former Foreign Service officer with the U.S. Department of State, Beware of Venezuela's Paranoid Anti-Americanism, RealClearPolitics, 19 March 2013, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/03/19/beware_of_venezuelas_paranoid_anti-americanism_117526.html)//HOTwo weeks after the death of President Hugo Chavez from cancer, Venezuelas interim chief and Chavista presidential candidate Nicolas Maduro is increasingly resorting to wild, paranoid, anti-American outbursts in an effort to convince Venezuelans he has the machismo needed to fill El Commandantes boots. Following initial claims that the U.S. or others had killed Chavez, Maduro followed up on March 13 by saying he intends to form a scientific commission to review the facts of the 58-year-old leaders death. We have the intuition that our commander Chavez was poisoned by dark forces that wanted him out of the way, Maduro told an audience on March 12. Such a commission, however, will have to collect its evidence from a corpse that was inadequately preserved and may be too decomposed for the embalming Maduro had initially promised. The war of words between Maduro and opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles also continues to heat up. Maduro and company want to undercut Capriles by making Venezuelans believe that Capriles enjoys official backing from the U.S. Such attacks will only worsen in advance of the April 14 presidential elections. On March 17, Maduro went further, saying that the U.S. is now preparing a desperate plot to kill Capriles. I call on President ObamaRoger Noriega, Otto Reich [both conservative, former State Department officials], officials at the Pentagon and at the CIA are behind a plan to assassinate the right-wing presidential candidate to create chaos. Attacks on the U.S. are integral to the strategy of Maduro and the inner Chavista circle. Their current course aims to inflame the nationalistic militancy of Chavezs followers. It is a calculated effort to distract Venezuelan voters from grave violations of the constitutional order and stark domestic challengesinflation, fiscal deficits, devaluations, crime, and increasing food shortagesthat have worsened since Maduro took de facto control of the government in early December 2012. Governability and stability in Venezuela before and after the elections could become a major challenge. The Miami Heralds veteran Venezuela watcher Andres Oppenheimer suggests that the April 14 elections will be neither fair nor genuinely free. Maduros wild accusations also lower expectations for swift improvement in relations with the U.S. The limited leverage that the U.S. still poses over Venezuela resides in its commercial, financial, and energy links and in the frayed democratic consensus in the inter-American community. Like it or not, the Obama Administration finds itself drawn into Venezuelas growing crisis of governability caused by the increasingly irresponsible behavior of Chavez knock-offs like Maduro.

Ties to military elites necessitates a confrontational policy towards the USShinkman, National Security Reporter for US News and World Report, 4-24-13 (Paul, Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond? http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond) //JAGHe also cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press conference in Tehran in 2010, "We are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism." These relationships are controlled by a group of military elites within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives him enough support to keep the country and its shadow commerce stable enough to continue its usual business. "[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money." "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez. U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries. But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites. "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."

CounternarcoticsVenezuela doesnt want cooperation on narcoticsToothaker, Christopher 08Freelance Writer for the Associated Press (Venezuela: No Anti-Drug Pact with the US, USA Today, 8/31) http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-31-3930126528_x.htmVenezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian cocaine now passing through its territory. In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation. "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in August 2005, accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White House drug czar John Walters said. U.S. law enforcement has detected a wave of flights that depart Venezuela and drop large loads of cocaine off the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, while other multi-ton loads are moved by boat and air to west Africa -- a way station for shipments to Europe, Walters said. He said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled since 2004, reaching an estimated 282 tons (256 metric tons) last year. On Sunday, Chavez responded angrily to Walter's comments, calling him "stupid" for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has increased. Chavez also took issue with recent statements made by U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, saying the diplomat is risking possible expulsion from Venezuela and would soon be "packing his bags" if he's not careful. Duddy told reporters on Saturday that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington are giving drug smugglers the upper hand.

Venezuela will prefer a unilateral approach to counternarcotics nowToothaker, Christopher 08Freelance Writer for the Associated Press (Venezuela: No Anti-Drug Pact with the US, USA Today, 8/31, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-31-3930126528_x.htm)CARACAS, Venezuela Venezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian cocaine now passing through its territory. In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation. "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in August 2005, accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White House drug czar John Walters said. U.S. law enforcement has detected a wave of flights that depart Venezuela and drop large loads of cocaine off the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, while other multi-ton loads are moved by boat and air to west Africa -- a way station for shipments to Europe, Walters said. He said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled since 2004, reaching an estimated 282 tons (256 metric tons) last year. On Sunday, Chavez responded angrily to Walter's comments, calling him "stupid" for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has increased. Chavez also took issue with recent statements made by U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, saying the diplomat is risking possible expulsion from Venezuela and would soon be "packing his bags" if he's not careful. Duddy told reporters on Saturday that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington are giving drug smugglers the upper hand.Venezuela wont cooperate on drugs with the U.S. nowDOS 13 (2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March 5, Bureau Of International Narcotics And Law Enforcement Affairs, http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2013/vol1/204052.htm#Venezuela)//DLGC. National Goals, Bilateral Cooperation, and U.S. Policy Initiatives The Venezuelan government has maintained only limited, case-by-case counternarcotics cooperation with the United States since the cessation of formal cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in 2005. Since 2005, the United States has proposed that the Venezuelan government sign an addendum to the 1978 U.S.-Venezuelan bilateral counternarcotics MOU that would allow for expanded cooperation. Venezuelan officials regularly made clear that Venezuela would neither sign a bilateral agreement nor cooperate with the United States on counternarcotics. The Venezuelan government rarely shares information with the United States on money laundering or drug trafficking. Since 2009, when former Interior and Justice Minister El Aissami prohibited police officers from receiving training abroad without the Ministry's prior approval, Venezuelan law enforcement authorities have not participated in U.S.-sponsored counternarcotics training programs. Bilateral cooperation with the United States in 2012 included of the deportation of Puerto Rican Oscar Cali Martnez Hernndez to the United States. In 2012, Venezuela detained four Colombian citizens who are wanted by the United States and deported all but one of them to Colombia in November.

Venezuela has refused US efforts to cooperate over drugsDOS 10 (International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March, Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/137411.pdf)//DLGVenezuela has failed demonstrably to make sufficient efforts to meet its obligations under international counternarcotics measures set forth in Section 489(a) (1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended. This Determination takes into account actions taken by the Government of Venezuela during the past 12 months. Venezuela has ignored, or refused, the majority of United States Government offers to work towards greater cooperation on counternarcotics. An official letter from the U.S. Ambassador on July 15, 2008, and a follow-up diplomatic note of March 11, 2009, requesting facilitation of a meeting to discuss counternarcotics were not answered. On May 13, 2009, Venezuelas National Anti-Drug Office (ONA) Director declined to meet with the U.S. Charge dAffaires, informing the U.S. Embassy that the meeting would require authorization from the Venezuelan President or the Foreign Minister. Venezuelas importance as a transshipment point for drugs bound for the United States and Europe continues to increase. Corruption within the Venezuelan Government and a weak and politicized judicial system contribute to the ease with which illicit drugs transit Venezuela. Trafficking through Venezuela increased from an estimated 50 metric tons of cocaine in 2004 to an estimated 300 metric tons in 2008. The ONA periodically reports seizures of illicit drugs, but the Venezuelan Government does not share the necessary data or evidence needed to verify seizures or the destruction of illicit drugs. The U.S. Coast Guard generally has received permission from the Government of Venezuela to board suspect Venezuelan flagged vessels operating in the Caribbean. Venezuelan authorities, however, require the return of confiscated vessels, people, and any contraband located during these operations. Upon return to Venezuela, crew members are often released.

Empirics prove Venezuela rejected US drug assistance 5 years ago and will do so again nowAP 08 (Associated Press, Venezuela rejects U.S. bid for anti-drugs pact, http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26487635/ns/world_news-venezuela/t/venezuela-rejects-us-bid-anti-drugs-pact/#.UfFyfdI3vLM, 8/31/08)//MGVenezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian cocaine now passing through its territory. In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation. "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency in August 2005, accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White House drug czar John Walters said.Venezuela empirically doesnt cooperate on drugsGAO, 9 (Government Accountability Office, July, DRUG CONTROL U.S. Counternarcotics Cooperation with Venezuela Has Declined Report to the Ranking Member, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, http://www.gao.go