Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts

•USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview

•Contributions by the National Weather Service

Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts

Fostering Agency Relationships

USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview

•Heat waves can have a significant financial impact on feedlot cattle producers

•Cattle Risk Factors

•Genetics

•Health

•Production Status

•Previous Exposure to Heat Stress

Impacts of Heat Stress

Normal

Recognizing Heat Stress

•No signs of stress

Stage 1

Recognizing Heat Stress

•Elevated breathing rate

•Restless

•Spend increased time standing

Stage 2

Recognizing Heat Stress

•Slight drooling

•Animals may group together

Stage 3

Recognizing Heat Stress

•Excessive drooling or foaming

Stage 4

Recognizing Heat Stress

•Open mouth breathing

Stage 5

Recognizing Heat Stress

•Extremely elevated breathing rate with pushing from flanks

•Open mouth breathing with tongue protruding

Stage 6

Recognizing Heat Stress

•Breathing is labored, and respiration rate may decrease

•Head down

•Not necessarily drooling

•Individual animals may be isolated from herd

•Breathing Rate Equation

•Studies have shown breathing rate to be a good indicator of cattle heat stress

•Breathing rate varies as cattle attempt to maintain thermal balance

•MARC researchers developed the breathing rate equation to predict the animal’s response to different weather conditions

Forecasting Heat Stress

•Important Weather Parameters

•Temperature

•Wind Speed

•Humidity

•Solar Radiation

Forecasting Heat Stress

Breathing Rate =(2.83 X Temperature) + (0.58 X Humidity) – (0.76 X Wind Speed) + (0.429 X (100 – Cloud Cover)) – 196.4

Forecasting Heat Stress

Predicted Breathing Rate Heat Stress Category

<= 90 breaths per minute Normal

91 – 110 breaths per minute Alert

111-130 breaths per minute Danger

> 130 breaths per minute Emergency

http://www.ars.usda.gov

Contributions by the National Weather Service

•Verify weather elements which are used in the breathing rate equation

•Identify which element(s) cause the greatest discrepancy between forecast breathing rate and observed breathing rate

•Provide meteorologically-based recommendations for the breathing rate equation

Research Goals

•Download observational data from NCDC

•Acquire archived forecast data from USDA-MARC

•Develop verification scripts

•Develop a verification grid

•Verify heat stress forecasts

•Map generation of heat stress forecast verification

Verification

•Observational data

•ASOS and AWOS sites

•Surface temperature, surface dew point, surface wind speed, cloud cover up to 12,000 FT

•Sky Cloud Product

•Satellite derived product

•Cloud cover above 12,000 FT

Verifying Weather Elements

•14 Separate Python Scripts

•Verification Grid Production

•Data Quality Control

•Data Ingest

•Data Verification

Verification Scripts

Verification Grid

•GFE (Graphical Forecast Editor) used for verification image production

•Forecast domain enlarged to include entire heat stress forecast domain

•Modified scripts used to produce daily precipitation maps

•Modified GFE SerpTool for final image production

Verification Image Production

Verification Image Production

•HTML script with JavaScript embedded

•Allows for quick and easy navigation of available images

•Allows the user to select from a host of weather elements

•Allows the user to select individual forecast days or date ranges

Verification Image Display

Verification Image Display

•Finish verifying all of April – September 2008

•Begin downloading data for 2009

•Continue raising awareness of the USDA-MARC’s work on heat stress

Future Plans for the Study

Questions

http://www.ars.usda.gov