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Soc 695 Family Violence Research In World Perspective Murray A. Straus

TRENDS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTUREPREVALENCE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE

• Are child abuse and partner abuse increasing?• Why does the public think crime is increasing?• What explains the trends?• What are the implications of these explanations for

individuals and for society?

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TRENDS IN CHILD ABUSE

These are the figures you are used to seeing

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REPORTED AND CONFIRMED CASES OF

CHILD ABUSE, IRELAND 1984-1997

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15 TIMES MORE CASES IN 1997.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS: “AN EPIDEMIC OF CHILD ABUSE”

ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION?

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• Severe: hitting a child with a belt, paddle, hairbrush on buttocks.• Very Severe: hit with object on some other part of the body, kick, punch, choke, burn. Which showed the biggest decrease?

• Severe140 – 55 = 85 85/140 = 61% decrease

• Very Severe35 – 5 = 3030/35 = 86% decrease

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TO MAKE SENSE OUT OF THE TRENDSREQUIRES DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN AN

INTERVENTION RATE AND A PREVALENCE RATE

Intervention Rate = Cases known to service providers. Example: crime rates based on police calls, child abuse rates based on cases reported to Child Protective Services

Prevalence Rate = Cases known on the basis of data for the population in general.

Example: National Crime Victimization Survey, National Family Violence Surveys

Can Lead To Different Conclusions: "Once partner violence starts, it continues or escalates"

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TRENDS IN CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE CASES KNOWN TO CHILD PROTECTIVE SERVICES

1970 – 1980: TREMENDOUS INCREASES – 10% PER YEAR

1992 – 2002: 44% DECREASE (Finkelhor & Jones, 2004). Similar decreases in other countriesCanadaGreat BritainSwedenAustraliaNew ZealandSpainIsrael

COULD REFLECT CHANGE IN PUBLIC WILLINGNESS TO REPORT OR AGENCY WILLINGNESS TO CONFIRM

NEED FOR INDEPENDENT DATA FROM EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEYS

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In physical abuse

In sexual abuse

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RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH(Annual Prevalence)

•PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN Number per YearCases known to State Agencies: 500,000Cases uncovered in NFV surveys: 1,500,000

PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN Cases reported in NVAW surveys: 1,300,000Cases reported in NFV surveys: 6.000,000

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VIOLENCE AGAINST PARTNERS:

HUGE INCREASE IN CASES OF KNOWN TO SERVICE PROVIDERS

SHELTERS FOR BATTERED WOMENFirst one in 1973More every yearNow over 2,000

POLICE REPORTS OF FAMILY VIOLENCEClimbed every year from 1980

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UNH NATIONAL FAMILY VIOLENCE SURVEYS FOUND LARGE DECREASE IN PV BY MEN, BUT NOT BY WOMEN

This article was named a “citation classic”

WHY SO FREQUENTLY CITED?

TO CRITICIZE AND DENOUNCE

Example: Richard Berk: "Given all we know about the pattern of crime statistics, a 47% drop is so unprecedented as to be unbelievable. Never before has there beena drop of that magnitude, that rapidly.“But, contrary to Berk, other crime rateshave changed that much and that fast. Homicide rate, for example, increased by over 100% between 1963 and 1973WHAT HAVE OTHER STUDIES SINCE THEN FOUND?

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WHAT COULD EXPLAIN THE DISCREPANCY?HOW COULD BOTH BE CORRECT?

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ILLUSTRATIONS OF HUGE INCREASES THAT REFLECTDOING MORE ABOUT THE PROBLEM (intervention rate), NOT AN INCREASE IN THE PROBLEM (prevalence rate)

CHILD ABUSE IN FLORIDA

• Before the mandatory reporting and a hotline, there are about 1,000 cases

• The year after the hotline was established there were 9,000

DOMESTIC ABUSE HOTLINE FOR MEN

• In the first year (2000) there was about a call a day

• In 2004 there were about 7 per day -- a seven-fold increase

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Partner Violence by Both Men And Women has Decresed ( NCVS)

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Female Perpetrators 42% decrease

Male Perpetrators 49% decrease

Rennison, 2003

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VIOLENCE AGAINST PARTNERS

National Family Violence Surveys

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RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH(Annual Prevalence)

•PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN Number per YearCases known to State Agencies: 500,000Cases uncovered in NFV surveys: 1,500,000

PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN Cases reported in NVAW surveys: 1,300,000Cases reported in NFV surveys: 6.000,000

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1970 1980 1990 2000

TREND IN FAMILY VIOLENCE CASES KNOWN TO SERVICE PROVIDERS AND AS FOUND BY

EPIDEMOLOGICAL SURVEYS

Service Provider Data(An Intervention Rate)

Epidemiological Data (A Prevalence Rate)

Rate of Family Violence(Hypoth-etical)

WHY THIS HUGE INCREASE?Intervention effort – casefinding

WHY THE DECREASE NOW ?Decrease in prevalence is now greater than new case finding. WHY?

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WHY DOES THE PUBLIC THINKFAMILY VIOLENCE AND OTHER CRIME IS

INCREASING?

• Rates did increase for 20 years• Press coverage has increased• Intervention rates taken as prevalence rates• Advocacy groups for family violence victims

continually talk about “epidemics” which public interprets as “increase”

• Rising public expectations for quality of life make the cases more disturbing

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MEDIA COVERAGE OFTEN MISREPRESENTS

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WHAT EXPLAINS THE DECREASEIN FAMILY VIOLENCE?

NINE OF THE MANY PROCESSES

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EXPLANATION #1: THE CIVILIZATION EFFECT (N. Elias)

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EXPLANATION #2: INTERVENTIONS TO LOWER CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER VIOLENCE

• Public awareness & education * Take Back The Night * TV dramas

• Hot lines• Shelters• Home visiting programs• School abuse prevention programs • Increased efforts at case detection by

Pediatricians, Teachers, school nurses, others• Presumptive arrest policy• More Prosecution• Batterer treatment programs• Incarceration

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THE RESULT: THE TYPES OF FAMILY VIOLENCE THAT HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF PREVENTION EFFORTS DECREASED THE MOST

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Steps to implement vary from almost none to very extensive

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EXPLANATION #3: CULTURAL NORMS TOLERATING PARTNER ASSAULT HAVE CHANGED

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EXPLANATION #4: GREATER EQUALITY BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN

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EXPLANATION #5CHANGES IN FAMILY

COMPOSITION AND ORGANIZATION

• Later age at marriage

• Later age at first child (for people marring at the same age)

• Fewer children

• Greater acceptability of divorce

WHY DO THESE CHANGES LOWER CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER VIOLENCE

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Certainty Score

Males Females

PROBABILITY OF ASSAULTING A PARTNER BY PERCEIVED PROBABILITY OF BEING ARRESTED (Ramirez, 2003)

EXPLANATION #6: THE RULE OF LAW COMES TO THE FAMILY

NEW LAWS AND POLICE POLICY

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EXPLANATION #7 - DECREASE IN USE OF CORPORAL PUNISHMENT

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BETTER EDUCATED PARENTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BELIEVE THAT"WHEN A BOY IS GROWING UP, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HIM

TO HAVE A FEW FISTFIGHTS"

IN 1968, 75% OF THE ADULT POPULATION AGREED1995 GALLUP DISCIPLINE SURVEY (N=1000)CP\CHARTS\RATES\AGE95G2

EXPLANATION #8

BETTER EDUCATEDPOPULAT-ION

EDUCATED PEOPLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO REALIZE THAT FEW THINGS HAVE SIMPLE CAUSES AND SIMPLE SOLUTIONS – LIKE HITTING

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EXPLANATION #9 LESS ECONOMIC STRESS

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THESE ARE JUST NINE OF THE MANY INTERRELATED CHANGES MAKING FOR A LESS

VIOLENT WORLD, INCLUDING LESS FAMILY VIOLENCE

• Historical trend away from personal violence• Application of the rule of law to the family• Change in cultural norms tolerating family violence• Programs to end child abuse, wife beating, bullying• Growth in equality between men and women• Other changes in family composition and organization• Decrease in use of corporal punishment• Better educated population• Less economic stress

MANY OTHER FACTORS, for example, tremendous growth in family counseling and therapy

OVERALL: The civilization effect

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THE FUTURE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE

• PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS ALWAYS RISKYParking lots in New York

• ALL FORMS OF FAMILY VIOLENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASEFOR THE SAME REASONS AS THE PAST DECLINE

• THERE WILL BE UPS AND DOWNS AROUND THE TREND LINESome groups may experience increases, such as those suffered

by inner city families during the crack cocaine epidemic• THE BENEFITS WILL BE ENORMOUS

* For individuals, less: mental illness, unhappy marriages, divorce, higher IQ, more education, better job performance, etc, etc.

* For society, Lower: rates of all types of crime, lower costs for criminal justice and welfare, higher economic productivity, etc.

A HEALTHIER, WEALTHIER, AND WISER SOCIEITY

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END FOR SOC 695