VI C. National and International Migration

[See text, Chapter 7, pp. 334-344 and class notes for International Migration.]

ECON 3508 March 26 2013

AgendaNational Migration

A. Why do People MigrateA. People’s Motivations

B. Underlying Forces

B. The Migratory ProcessA. Varieties of migration

C. The “Harris-Todaro Model” of Migration

D. Is Internal Migration Desirable?

E. Policy Implications

International Migration

A. Why do People Migrate

People’s Motivations :

Push factors: real income, security, opportunity:Environmental factors (drought, land degradation,

salinization

Population pressures on the land (excessive land fragmentation; land ownership patterns)

Political instability and civil conflict (e.g. Colombia)

Non-economic Factors: To break the bonds of traditional rural society

Pull factors:Urban employment opportunities

Income possibilities

Urban amenities; water electricity modern housing

s

A. Why do People Migrate

Underlying Forces– Structural Change

– Technological Change

– All factors affecting agriculture and rural development relative to urban development

– All factors affecting the location of economic activity

B. The Migratory Process

• Who Migrates?

• Varieties of Migration• Rural to urban• Rural to rural• Urban to urban• Urban to rural?• Migratory• Commuting

Components of Migration in Selected Countries

C. The “Harris-Todaro Model” of Migration

Intuitive version or verbal version;– Migration is a rational decision– The decision depends on expected rather than actual

wage differentials– The probability of obtaining a city job is inversely

related to the urban unemployment rate– High rates of migration are outcomes of rural urban

imbalances

Graphical version (on blackboard in class)

Figure 7.12 The Harris-Todaro Migration Model[See class notes and text pp. 340-342 for explanation]

Economic Implications of Migration– Accommodating structural change in an

economy– Permitting shifts from low to higher

productivity economic activities – Shifting of “surplus labour”– Relief of rural population pressures– Migrants are presumably better off and usually

or else they would return if they were not

– Socioeconomic costs on urban areas

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable?A. From the perspective of the migrants?

B. From a societal perspective?

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable?B. From a societal perspective?

The Positives• Surplus labour leaves the land;

• Rural population pressures are relieved;

• Structural change in the economy is made possible;

• Higher productivity made possible in urban activities;

• Higher incomes for migrants

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable?

B. From a societal perspective?

The Negatives: Unemployment and underemployment in urban areas

Inundation of people into informal sector activities

Overcrowding & congestion;

Shanty-towns and inadequate housing;

Crime and social dysfunction?

Overburdened infrastructure

Increased taxes to accommodate new-comers

Higher costs of infrastructure as cities expand further

Environmental costs

D. Is Internal Migration Desirable? Cont’d:

• Rural-to-urban migration was viewed positively until recently

• The current view is that this migration is greater or more rapid than the urban areas’ abilities to– Create jobs– Provide social services

• Therefore, slow down the migratory process in those countries where it is very rapid. HOW?

E. Policy ImplicationsSlow down rural-urban migration. HOW?

• Create a better urban-rural balance; Reduce “Urban Bias”

– Eliminate all “biases” favouring large cities at the expense of small towns, rural areas and regions;

– Eliminate factor price distortions that favour “capital” industry and urban areas;

– Emphasize rural infrastructure

• Promote rural and regional development

– Expand small-scale, labor intensive industries in rural areas small towns and secondary cities;

– Broaden the economic base of rural areas; Programs of integrated rural development should be encouraged to generate rural jobs and higher incomes;

– Decentralize authority to cities, towns and neighborhoods;

F. Policy ImplicationsSlow down rural-urban migration. HOW? Cont’d

• Choose appropriate labor-intensive technologies of production where possible;

• Modify carefully the linkage between education and employment;

• Reduce population growth;

• Urban job creation is insufficient for reducing urban unemployment;

– Improve rural incomes and jobs as well

– Urban wage subsidies can be counterproductive, merely inducing more migration and unemployment

– Avoid “Induced Migration” by trying to create urban jobs while neglecting rural areas;

International Migration:[Not in text; see class notes]

International Migration:[Not in text; see class notes]

I. Varieties of International Migrants– Workers or Economic Migrants– Family Reunification– Refugee Movements – Temporary or Circulatory Migration– “Study-Abroad” Migration– International Adoptions– Illegal and Legal Migration– Trafficking in People– “Reverse Migration”

Some central facts re international migration:

•214 million estimated international migrants, 2008.1

• 3.1 per cent of the global population.2

• In 2008, remittance flows are estimated at USD 444 billion worldwide, USD 338 billion of which went to developing countries.•5 20 to 30 million unauthorized migrants worldwide, comprising around 10 to 15 per cent of the world's immigrant stock.•6 26 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in at least 52 countries as a result of conflict.•7 In 2010, the global number of refugees reached an estimated 16 million

•See International Organization for Migration: http://www.iom.int/jahia/page254.html

II. Estimates of International Migrants by Region

Major Area Number of International Migrants (Millions)

1990 2005

Percent of Total, 2005

Percent Female2005

AfricaAsiaL. Am. Northern AmericaEuropeOceana

16.4 17.149.8 53.3 7.0 6.627.6 44.549.4 64.1 4.8 5.0

9%28 32334 3

47.444.750.350.453.451.3

World 154.8 190.6 100 49.6

Source: United Nations, Trends in Total Migration Stock, the 2005 Revision

III.Forces Generating International Migration

V. Gains and Losses; Who Wins, Who Loses, How and Why?

– The Migrants

– The Receiving Country

– The Home or Sending Country• Brain Drain and Brain Gain

– Should Winners Compensate Losers?

VII. Relevant Policies for Countries of Origin

VIII Policy Possibilities for Increasing the Global and Origin-Country Benefits

– Can Emigres and International Diasporas become Pro-Developmental for their Countries of Origin?

• Remittances;• Diaspora Development Initiatives?• Return Migration with New Skills, Financial

Resources?

– Would Global “Economic Convergence” Change the Situation?