victor cesar m. de aguiarvictor cesar m. de aguiar norwegian meteorological institute geophysical...
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Modeling Oil Spills in Ice and Biological Effects(OSMICO project)
Victor Cesar M. de Aguiar
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Geophysical Institute
2020
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The OSMICO project
Researchers: Lars R. Hole (MET) (project leader),Knut-Frode Dagestad (MET), Victor de Aguiar (MET), AlexeiBambulyak (APN), Magnus Aune (APN), Denis Moiseev and
Georgy Duhno (MMBI)
Funding: The Fram Center
Goal.
To implement an oil-in-ice drift model and use it as a toolfor ecosystem consequence assessments.
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OpenDrift
OpenDrift is an open-source Lagrangian frameworkdeveloped at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and
available on: https://opendrift.github.io/
✓ Offline trajectory model – no compilation needed
✓ Coded in Python – (with GUI)
✓ Modular for different applications:
Search-and-rescue (Leeway)Oil transport and weathering (OpenOil)Plastic drift (PlastDrift)Pelagic fish eggs (PelagicEgg)Ice Bergs (OpenBerg)
✓ Forward and backward calculations
✓ Can be initialized from satellite images
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The oil-in-ice model
Rule-of-thumb
In low sea ice fraction (C<0.3): oil drifts as in openwater.
In high sea ice fraction (C≥0.8): oil drifts with the seaice.
Voil = κ(Vice)+(1−κ)(Vocean+fwVwind)
Where:
κ
⎧⎪⎪⎪⎪⎨⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩
0, if C < 0.3C−0.3
0.8−0.3 , if 0.3 ≤ C < 0.8
1, if C ≥ 0.8
Nordam et al. (2019): Improving oil spill trajectory modelling in the Arctic
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Spill Impact Mitigation Assessment
SIMA
Methodology used to select the most appropriateoption(s) for oil recovery and mitigation of potential
environmental impact.
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Oil spill simulation in the Pechora Sea
Brunnich’s guillemot distribution Apr - Nvb, 2016 - 2019; Data: NINA
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Take-home message & next steps
✓ OSMICO can be applied in SIMA method forcontingency planning and incident response.
✓ The study case showed that oil drift pattern changes in thepresence of sea ice and different mitigation techniques shouldbe applied.
⋆ Implement a second oil-in-ice module and evaluate theiroutputs against buoy trajectories.
⋆ Couple oil spill simulations to an end-to-end ecosystem model.
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Thank you!
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Questions?
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