View on the future of the EV industry

Bert Witkamp Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative , May 4th, 2015

Why switch to electric drive?

Societal drive and pressure (MEGATRENDS!): political leaders come up with long term policies and decisions taken:

To combat climate change

To clean up our air and to reduce noise levels in order to improve our health

To become (economically and politically) independant from fossil fuel imports

For economic reasons when electric drive becomes simply more economically for consumers than other alternatives

Lower total cost of ownership

Lower upfront cost, higher second hand value

Switch from vehicle ownership to transportation use model

Consumers enjoy electric drive Better driving experience

Small city vehicles only available in electric drive versions

Access to zero emission / low noise zones in cities

House – car integrated energy system and lower energy cost

Non-financial motivators and social responsability 2

EV development 2008 – 2014: market

(Very) high growth rate (In 2014: 43% all EV’s sold, globally)

2014 vs 2013: Europe: +50%, China: + 220%, US: +22%

Countries can have “as many EV’s on the road as they want”

Range of EV models on market is widening but still limited

Tesla game changer ?!

EV market remains few model – few country market, covering small % of market in customer needs and geographically

EV other than passenger cars are almost not available

EV’s get the high(est) customer satisfaction scores @ most OEM’s

EV’s remain expensive and need (mostly) incentives and subsidies

But (battery) cost is coming down rapidly

EV charging infrasturucture slowly comes in places but no clear business models yet

Range anxiety anxiety still an issue

EV’s 300 – 500+ km ranges announced for 2016 – 2018 (mid-class – luxury)

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New FEV’s being announced (or rumoured) PHEV becoming basic offering?

300+ km range (EPA): 2016 – 2018, $ 30 – 40k

Tesla Model III

GM Chevrolet Bolt

Ford

Audi

Nissan (Leaf)

BMW (i3)

VW e-Golf

FEV luxury cars (“Tesla fighters”)

Audi (R8 e-tron, 2016, 450 km, 92 kWh; Q6 e-SUV)

BMW i5

Jaguar (SUV)

Landrover

Porsche 717

Volkswagen (500 km range by 2020)

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Policymakers and politicians

Awareness of the CÙRRENT state of EV technology is in general low

Awareness of and belief in the cost reduction potential of EV technology in the next decade is probably even lower

Politians and policymaker (like most human beings) will act and champion EV development and deployment if and when they are convinced of value of doing so AND a good chance of success!

EV Technology:

1. The postive contribution in terms of Climate Change, Air Quality, Reduction of fossil fuel import and energy efficiency is evident

2. Consumers familiar withthe technology prefer it largely over conventional technology

3. EV Technology is probably on its way to become the lowest cost vehicle technology within the next decade BUT this needs to be substantiated and communicated!!

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Electric vehicles are intrinsically the lowest cost technology option

Already today, EV’s are less expensive than ICE with the exception of the battery / fuel cell

Total cost of ownership in some cases already lower today

It’s (almost) all about the battery cost!

Around 2025: EV’s likely to be the lowest cost and best appreciated cars

Batteries get rapidly lower in cost AND less battery is needed / km

Also: renewable energy & EV’s = synergy

The mass scale switch to electric drive may start within a decade

All passenger cars, buses, vans & light trucks

In transition phase hybrid versions as well

In 2030 all cars sold are electric?

At a certain moment, people will not buy old technology anymore

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Battery cost decrease faster than predicted

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Ref: Bjorn Nykvist and Mans Nilsson, 2015

85 cost estimates from peer reviewed literature, most cited grey literature and OEM’s

1) EV battery learning curve: -6 to 9% per doubling

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Ref: Bjorn Nykvist and Mans Nilsson, 2015

2) EV battery learning curve: -22 % per doubling

Battery cost decreases faster than predicted …..and this continues after 2020…

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A possible scenario starting after 2020

Very-low cost Light Electric Vehicles: perfect for city driving,

Electric cars become the lowest cost car

Small EV model 100 – 200 km range

Mid class EV models 300 – 500 km range

High end and luxury EV models, > 500 km range

Charging (low power?) goes wireless and automatic

Fast charging: mainly for commercial vehicles & users; 5-10% of charging for consumers

Very large non-OEM’s enter EV market?

Cars become autonomous: best fit for electric cars!

Beyond cars: electric buses, light trucks, vans, autonomous & self-charging long range trucks,..

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Switch to electric is less far fetched than we think?

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Ian Robertson, Board member & Chief Marketing BMW:

Who is going to manufacture the EV’s of the future?

OEM’s

Tesla (like start ups)

Chinese companies like BYD, Geely, Foxconn,…

Google?

Apple?

Siemens,….?

Combinations of any of these?

Manufacturing of EV’s in the future will probably be much more “democratic”: very easy, low cost, small scale and open for many companies, industries and countries wanting to build up an automotive industry!

Who is going to supply the electricity? 13

Crossing the EV Valley of Death

We can and need to provide credible and clear information on the EV use and cost potential to our politians, policymakers, industries and citizens!

The next 5 years will be determining in whether the still fragile and vulnerable EV can reach its full potential quickly!

Your opinions and ideas?

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ANNEXES: BACKGROUND INFORMATION

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ICE technology: master piece of engineering

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Requires highly skilled labour, expensive machinery and factories

ICE emission control system: very complex and sensitive, lasting vehicle lifetime??

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EV motors: order of magnitude less complex!?

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Ideal for low cost mass production

Which horse (power) are we betting on?

PAGE 19 4-6-

2015

Source: TU Eindhoven, The Netherlands

3x more kW/kg

40x more kW/liter

4x more efficient

ZERO emission

LOW noise

VERY low maintenance

1 moving part

EV’s on the road (M1 cars, models > 2007) sustained 2014 growth = 100 % EV in 2025

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2010 – 2014:

in 4 years: 200 x more

EV’s on the road !

Full electric vehicles Europe 2010 – 2014

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Phase 1:

2008 – 2012: Think & Mitsibushi i-Miev

2011- 2012: Nissan LEAF, Boloré Bleucar,

Renault Fluence, Smart for Two

Phase 2: GAME CHANGERS:

2013-2014: Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF (2),

BMW i3, Renault Zoe,….

2010 Top 5 total: 546 = 80%Think 243

Mitsubishi I-Miev

Citroën C-Zero 100

Peugeot iOn

Smart For Two 97

Tesla Roadster 74

Mini Electric 50

2012 Top 5 total: 15.573 = 96% Mitsubishi I-Miev

Citroën C-Zero 6583

Peugeot iOn

Nissan Leaf 4883

Bolloré Bluecar 1950

Renault Fluence 1211

Smart For Two 946

2014 Top 5 total: 45.142 = 83%Nissan Leaf 14380

Renault Zoë 10905

Tesla Model S 9261

VW e-Up! 5406

BMW i3 (BEV est.) 5190

EV: market of few models & segments

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FEV

4 models > 10,000

10 models > 1,000

PHEV / REEV

2 models > 10,000

6 models > 1,000

EV sales concentrated in few countries top 5: 83%, top 12: 97%

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Norway has imported 3,500 – 4,500 second hand EV’s (mainly Nissan LEAF)

A country can have as many

EV’s on the road as it wants:

-people want them!

Does not need to cost

Taxpayers

If “polluter-pays” principle

Is applied

Do EV drivers like their cars? EV are becoming cars of choice!

Rapid accelaration and smooth drive.

Highest customer satisfaction reported for Tesla, Nissan Leaf, Opel Ampera, Chevy Volt,….neighbours help OEM’s to sell the cars…

Saves money in fuel and maintenance

Every morning full “tank”, charge at work, no need anymore to go to smelly, unhealthy gasstations ( and spending several

weeks of your life there….)

Help to get the air (of your city) clean!

Low noise and no emissions in city traffic and traffic jams

Help to fight climate change

Often use / produce renewable energy to fill up!

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Autonomous + Electric = breakthough 10 x less vehicles + 1/5 of the cost but same mobility

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