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W O R L D M E T E O R O L O G I C A L O R G A N I Z A T I O NT E C H N I C A L D O C U M E N T

WMO/TD No. 84

TROPICAL CYCLONEPROGRAMME

Report No. TCP-21

TROPICAL CYCLONE OPERATIONAL PLANFOR THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA

Edition 2016

SECRETARIAT OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONGENEVA SWITZERLAND

Edition 2016 1

© World Meteorological Organization, 2016

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Chair, Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO)7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]

NOTE

The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised.

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members.

This publication has been issued without formal editing.

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CONTENTSPage

Chapter I General I1

1.1 Introduction I11.2 Terminology used in the region I21.2.1 General I21.2.2 Classification of cyclonic disturbances and tropical cyclones I21.2.3 Tropical cyclone characteristics I21.2.4 Terms related to the warning and warning system I21.3 Meaning of terms used for international exchanges I31.4 Units used I61.4.1 Units used in international exchanges I61.4.2 Units used in national bulletins I6

Chapter II Tropical cyclone warnings and advisories II1

2.1 General II12.2 Classification of cyclonic disturbances II12.3 Identification of tropical cyclones II12.4 Bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi II22.4.1 Tropical weather outlook II22.4.2 Special Tropical weather outlook II32.4.3 Tropical cyclone advisories II52.4.4 Hourly update bulletin2.4.5 Tropical cyclone warnings for the high seas II72.4.6 Warnings and advisories for aviation II92.4.7 Tropical cyclone warnings for national purposes II112.4.8 Storm surge guidance II112.5 Graphical presentation of track and intensity II112.5.1 Cone of uncertainty II122.5.2 Quadrant wind forecast II13Annex II-A Classification of Tropical cyclone warning systems in the Panel countries II-A-1Annex II-B Tropical cyclone warning systems in Bangladesh II-B-1Annex II-C Tropical cyclone warning systems in India II-C-1Annex II-D Tropical cyclone warning systems in Maldives II-D-1Annex II-E Tropical cyclone warning systems in Myanmar II-E-1Annex II-F Tropical cyclone warning systems in Oman II-F-1Annex II-G Tropical cyclone warning systems in Pakistan II-G-1Annex II-H Tropical cyclone warning systems in Sri Lanka II-H-1Annex II-I Tropical cyclone warning systems in Thailand II-I-1ANNEX II-B Attachment II-B-1ANNEX II-C Attachment II-C-1ANNEX II-E Attachment II-E-1ANNEX II-G Attachment II-G-1ANNEX II-H Attachment II-H-1ANNEX II-I Attachment II-I-1

Chapter III The observing system and observing programme III1

3.1 Networks of surface and upper air stations III13.1.1 Observations from basic networks III13.1.2 Special observations from the WWW network III13.1.3 Special observations from stations other than those of the regional III1 basic synoptic network 3.1.4 Upper air stations III11

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CONTENTS

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3.2 Observations from mobile ships III113.3 Aircraft reports III113.4 Radar observations III11

Annex III-A Code for reporting radar observations relating to cyclonic disturbances III-A-1Annex III-B Satellite cloud imagery monitoring facilities in the Panel countries III-B-1

Chapter IV Tropical cyclone forecasting IV-1

4.1 Forecasting development and movement of tropical cyclones IV-14.2 Prediction Model in operational use during the year 2014 IV-14.3 Storm surge forecasting IV-44.4 Coastal inundation forecasting IV-44.5 Seasonal Prediction of cyclonic disturbances IV-4Chapter V Communications V-1

5.1 General V-15.2 Procedures to be followed V-15.2.1 Tropical cyclone warning headings V-15.2.2 Telecommunication headings for the exchange of radar observations V-15.2.3 Telecommunication headings for the exchange of other messages V-25.2.4 Telecommunication headings for the exchange of tropical cyclone V-2

advisories and warnings for aviation 5.3 Existing GTS circuits among the Panel countries V-25.4 List of important telephone numbers and addresses connected with tropical cyclone V-2 Warnings in the Panel countries 5.5 GMDSS V-2Annex V-A List of important addresses and telephone numbers connected with tropical V-A-1 Cyclone warnings in the Panel countries

Chapter VI Monitoring and quality control of data VI1

6.1 Monitoring of data VI16.2 Quality control VI1

Chapter VII Archival of data VII1

7.1 Necessity for data archival VII17.2 Tropical cyclone data on landfall VII17.3 Role of RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi in data archiving VII1Annex VII-A Global Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Data Set Report Format VII-A-1

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C H A P T E R I

GENERAL

1.1 Introduction

The loss of life, property and human suffering caused by tropical cyclones in coastal areas in various parts of the globe are well known. These disasters are on occasion, particularly severe in the Bay of Bengal region. The northern part of the Bay of Bengal is known for its potential to generate dangerous high storm tides a major killer when associated with cyclonic storms. In the past, out of 10 recorded cases of very heavy loss of life (ranging from about 40,000 to well over 200,000) in the world due to tropical cyclones, 8 cases were in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea (5 in Bangladesh and 3 in India). The world's highest recorded storm tide of 45 feet occurred in this region (1876, Bakherganj cyclone near Meghna Estuary, Bangladesh). These facts amply illustrate the importance of an efficient cyclone warning service in this region. Recognizing these facts, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) jointly established the Panel on Tropical Cyclones in 1972 as an intergovernmental body. Its membership comprises countries affected by tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Originally its member countries were Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Later Maldives joined this Panel in 1982 followed by Sultanate of Oman in 1997 and Yemen in 2016.

The Panel is one of the five regional tropical cyclone bodies established as part of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) which aims at promoting and coordinating the planning and implementation of measures to mitigate tropical cyclone disasters on a worldwide basis.

The main objective of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones is to promote measures to improve tropical cyclone warning system in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

As part of this endeavour, the Panel at its twelfth session adopted a comprehensive cyclone operational plan for this region. The basic purpose of the operational plan is to facilitate the most effective tropical cyclone warning system for the region with existing facilities. In doing so the plan defines the sharing of responsibilities among Panel countries for the various segments of the system and records the coordination and cooperation achieved. The plan records the agreed arrangements for standardization of operational procedures, efficient exchange of various data related to tropical cyclone warnings, issue of cyclone advisories from a central location having the required facilities for this purpose, archival of data and issue of a tropical weather outlook for the benefit of the region.

The operational plan contains an explicit formulation of the procedures adopted in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea region for the preparation, distribution and exchange of information and warnings pertaining to tropical cyclones. Experience has shown that it is of great advantage to have an explicit statement of the regional procedures to be followed in the event of a cyclone, and this document is designed to serve as a valuable source of information always available for reference by the forecaster and other users, particularly under operational conditions. Relevant information, which is not subject to regional agreement is given in the annexes to the plan.

A technical plan aiming at the development and improvement of the cyclone warning system of the region has been drawn up by the Panel. Implementation of some items under the technical plan would lead to a strengthening of the operational plan.

The operational plan is evolutionary in nature. It is intended that the text of the plan be updated or revised from time to time by the Panel and that each item of information given in the annexes to the plan be kept up to date by the member country concerned.

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I-21.2 Terminology used in the region1.2.1 General

Panel member countries or member countries Zone of disturbed weather*

1.2.2 Classification of cyclonic disturbances and tropical cyclones

Cyclonic disturbance (generic term)(i) Low or low pressure area(ii) Well marked low pressure area+(iii) Depression or tropical depression(iv) Deep Depression*

Tropical cyclone (generic term)(v) Cyclonic storm(vi) Severe Cyclonic storm(vii) Very severe cyclonic storm(viii) Extremely severe cyclonic storm(ix) Super cyclonic storm

1.2.3 Tropical cyclone characteristicsi) Position or locationii) Eyeiii) Centreiv) Centre fixv) Central pressurevi) Pressure depthvii) Direction of movementviii) Speed of movementix) Mean wind speed or sustained wind speedx) Maximum wind speedxi) Gustxii) Storm surgexiii) Storm tidexiv) Coastal inundationxv) Heavy rainfall

1.2.4 Terms related to the warning and warning systemi) Name of the Tropical Cycloneii) Tropical cyclone season or cyclone seasoniii) Tropical weather Outlookiv) Tropical cyclone advisories v) Satellite and Radar informationvi) Pre-cyclone watch**vii) Cyclone Alert*viii) Cyclone Warning*ix) Post landfall outlook**x) Dewarning Message**xi) Visual storm signalxii) Squally wind and gale windxiii) High sea area bulletin and Coastal weather bulletinxiv) Bulletin or cyclone warning bulletin for India coastxv) Warning graphics on observed and forecast track with cone of uncertainty xvi) Observed and forecast winds in four geographical quadrantsxvii) Heavy rainfall warning graphics**xviii) Storm surge warning graphic** Term used nationally in India.

* Term used nationally in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, + Term used nationally in Bangladesh and India.

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1.3 Meaning of terms used for international exchangeAverage wind speed: Speed of the wind averaged over the previous 10 minutes (mean surface wind) as read from the anemogram or the 3 minutes mean determined with the non recording anemometer or estimated wind at sea by the mariners using the Beaufort scale.

Bulletin: Cyclone warning bulletin or cyclone advisory bulletin

Central pressure of a tropical cyclone: Surface pressure at the centre of the tropical cyclone as measured or estimated.

Centre fix of the tropical cyclone: The estimated location of the centre of a tropical cyclone (obtained by means other than the aircraft probing of the cyclone i.e. fixation of the centre with the help of land based and other radars, satellite and conventional observations like surface and upper air observations, ships' reports, commercial aircraft observations, etc.)

Centre of the tropical cyclone: The centre of the cloud eye or if not discernible, of the wind / pressure centre.

Coastal Inundation forecast: IMD issues the coastal inundation forecast during the warning period of the tropical cyclone based on Advanced CIRculation (ADCIRC) model run at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad. It provides location specific combined height of storm surge and astronomical tide and area of inundation.

Confidence in the centre position: Degree of confidence in the centre position of a tropical cyclone expressed as the radius of the smallest circle within which the centre may be located by the analysis.“Position good” implies a radius of 30 nautical miles (55 kilometers) or less,“Position fair”, a radius of 30 to 60 nautical miles (55 to 110 km) and“Position poor”, a radius of greater than 60 nautical miles (110 km).

Cyclone: Tropical cyclone

Cyclone Alert*: A priority message for the Government officials containing tropical cyclone information and advisories issued generally 48 hours before the commencement of adverse weather. Cyclone warning*: A priority message containing tropical cyclone warning and advisories issued generally 24 hours in advance of the commencement of adverse weather.

Cyclone warning bulletin : A priority message for exchange of tropical cyclone information and advisories.

Cyclonic disturbance: A non-frontal synoptic scale low pressure area originating over tropical waters with organized convection and definite cyclonic wind circulation.

Cyclonic storm : A cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum average surface wind speed is in the range of 34 to 47 knots (62 to 88 km/h).

Depression*: A cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed is between 17 and 27 knots (31 and 51 km/h). If the maximum sustained wind speed lies in the range 28 knots (52 km/h) to 33 knots (61 km/h) the system may be called a "deep depression".

Direction of movement of the tropical cyclone: The past direction and speed of movement mentioned in the bulletin is the average speed and direction during past six hours. The direction and speed mentioned in TCAC advisory bulletin is the forecast speed and direction of mevement for next six hours.

Dewarning Message: As and when a given coastal belt is expected to become free from the impact of TCs, a dewarning message is issued to the ports and disaster management agencies as a part of four stage warning system.

* Term used nationally in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan.** Predefined, based on minimum limit of rainfall during 24 hours or actual wind speed or both.

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Eye of the tropical cyclone: The relatively clear and calm area inside the circular wall of convective clouds, the geometric centre of which is the centre of the tropical cyclone.

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm: A cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum average surface wind speed is in the range of 90 to 119 knots (167 to 221 km/h).

Gale force wind : Average surface wind speed of 34 to 47 knots (62 to 88 km/h).

GMDSS: Global Maritime Distress and Safety System.

Gust: Instantaneous peak value of surface wind speed recorded or expected.

Hurricane force wind: Average surface wind speed of 64 knots or more.

Low or low pressure area: An area enclosed by a closed isobar with minimum pressure inside when mean surface wind is less than 17 knots (31 km/h).

Maximum sustained wind: Maximum value of the average wind speed at the surface.

Mean wind speed: Average wind speed.

Name of the Tropical Cyclone: Once wind speed in a cyclonic disturbance attains a 34 knots threshold value it will be given an identification name by RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi from the consolidated name list.

Panel members countries or member countries : Countries constituting the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones viz. Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman (Sultanate of), Pakistan, Sri Lanka , Thailand and Yemen.

Post Landfall Outlook: This bulletin is issued 12 hours before cyclone landfall and contains more specific forecasts about place and time of landfall.

*Pre Cyclone Watch : This bulletin contains early warning about likely development of a cyclonic storm and an indication of the coastal belt likely to experience adverse weather. A priority message for the Government officials containing information on the formation of a tropical disturbance as soon as it is detected and which is expected to affect coast.

Severe cyclonic storm: A cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum average surface wind speed is in the range of 48 to 63 knots (89 to 118 km/h).

Severe cyclonic storm with a core of hurricane winds + : A cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum average surface wind speed is 64 knots (119 km/h) or more.

Speed of movement of the tropical cyclone : Speed of movement of the centre of the tropical cyclone.

Squally wind: When sudden increases of wind speed occur in squalls with the increased speed reaching a minimum of 22 knots (40 km/h) and persist for at least one minute.

Storm force wind : Average surface wind speed of 48 to 63 knots.

Storm season: The periods April to May and October to December during which most of the cyclonic storms occur in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

Storm surge : The difference between the actual water level under the influence of a meteorological disturbance (storm tide) and the level, which would have been reached in the absence of the meteorological disturbance (i.e. astronomical tide). (Storm surge results mainly from the shoreward movement of water under the action of wind stress. A minor contribution is also made by the hydrostatic rise of water resulting from the lowered barometric pressure.)

Storm tide: The actual water level as influenced by a weather disturbance. The storm tide consists of the normal astronomical tide and the storm surge.

Super cyclone: A cyclonic disturbance in which maximum wind speed is 120 knots and above (222 km/h and above).

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Tropical cyclone : Generic term for a non frontal synoptic scale cyclone originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized convection and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation. The term is also used for a storm in the Southwest Indian Ocean in which the maximum of the sustained wind speed # is estimated to be in the range of 64 to 90 knots and in the South Pacific and Southeast Indian Ocean with the maximum of the sustained wind speed over 33 knots.)(Note: # Maximum sustained wind speed: Average period of one, three or ten minutes depending upon the regional practices.)

Tropical cyclone advisory: A priority message for exchanging information, internationally, on tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean including Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

Tropical depression : Depression.

Tropical storm : Tropical cyclone.

Tropical Weather Outlook: A priority message for exchange between the Panel countries of synoptic and satellite inferences for the the north Indian Ocean including Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea region.

Very severe cyclonic storm: A cyclonic disturbance in which maximum wind average is 64 knots to 89 knots (118 to 166 km/h).

Visual storm signals: Visual signals displayed at coastal points of the port to warn ships of squally winds, gales and tropical cyclones.

Weather warning: Meteorological message issued to provide appropriate warnings of hazardous weather conditions.Zone of disturbed weather: A zone in which the pressure is low relative to the surrounding region and there is convective cloud masses which are not organized.

TCAC Bulletin: The tropical cyclone advisory bulletin issued every six hourly by Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC), New Delhi for the purpose of international civil aviation.____________________________________+ Meaning of term as used nationally in Bangladesh

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1.4 Units used

1.4.1 Units used in international exchange

(i) Distance in nautical miles and km, the unit (nm and km) being stated.

(ii) Location (position) by degrees and where possible tenths of degrees of latitude and longitude preferably expressed by words.

(iii) Direction to the nearest sixteen points of the compass given in words.

(iv) Speed (wind speed and direction of movement of tropical cyclones) in knots and kilometer per hour, the unit (kt and kmph) being stated.

1.4.2 Units used in national bulletins(i) Distance in kilometers (km).(ii) Location in longitude and latitude (degrees and tenths of degrees) or bearing in sixteen points of

compass and distance from two or three well known fixed place.(iii) Direction in sixteen points of compass.(iv) Speed in km/h.

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C H A P T E R II

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES2.1 General

The responsibility of warning for the human settlements on land which are threatened by a tropical cyclone rests in all cases with the National Meteorological Services (NMS). These national responsibilities are not subject to regional agreement. Therefore, the cyclone warning systems pertaining to international users and exchanges among the Panel countries are described in this chapter and the cyclone warning systems for Panel countries are described briefly in the annex to this chapter.

2.2 Classification of cyclonic disturbances followed by RSMC, New Delhi

Classifications of cyclonic disturbances for the north Indian Ocean region for the exchange of messages among the Panel countries are given below:

Weather system Maximum wind speed

1. Low pressure area Wind speed less than 17 kt (31 km/h)

2. Depression Wind speed between 17 and 27 kt (31 and 49 km/h)

3. Deep Depression Wind speed between 28 and 33 kt (50 and 61 km/h)

4. Cyclonic storm Wind speed between 34 and 47 kt (62 and 88 km/h)

5. Severe cyclonic storm Wind speed between 48 and 63 kt (89 and 117 km/h)

6. Very severe cyclonic storm Wind speed between 64 and 89 kt (118 and 166 km/h)

7. Extremely severe cyclonic storm Wind speed between 90 and 119 kt (167 and 221 km/h)

8. Super cyclonic storm Wind speed 120 kt (222 km/h) and above

2.3 Identification of tropical cyclones

As soon as wind speed in a cyclonic disturbance attains a 34 kt threshold value, it will be given an identification name by RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi from the consolidated name list (Table II-1). The identification system will cover the whole north Indian Ocean.

If the life of a cyclonic disturbance spans two calendar years it will be accounted for in the year in which it has intensified to the stage where the wind speed has attained the 34 kt threshold value.

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TABLE II- 1

Table.1 : Table for naming tropical cyclones for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Panel Member

Column one Column two Column three Column fourNames Pron’ Names Pron’ Name

sPron’ Names Pron’

B’desh Onil Onil Ogni Og-ni Nisha Ni-sha Giri Gi-ri

India Agni Ag’ni Akash Aakaa’sh Bijli Bij’li Jal Jal

Maldives Hibaru -- Gonu -- Aila -- Keila --

Myanmar Pyarr Pyarr Yemyin Ye-myin Phyan Phyan Thane Thane

Oman Baaz Ba-az Sidr Sidr’ Ward War’d Murjan Mur’jaan

Pakistan Fanoos Fanoos Nargis Nar gis Laila Lai la Nilam Ni lam

Sri Lanka Mala -- Rashmi Rash’mi Bandu -- Viyaru Viyaru

Thailand Mukda Muuk-dar Khai Muk Ki-muuk Phet Pet Phailin Pi-lin

PanelMember

Column five Column six Column seven Column eightNames Pron’ Names Pron’ Names Pron’ Names Pron’

B’desh Helen Helen Chapala Cho-po-la Ockhi Ok-khi Fani Foni

India Lehar Le’har Megh Me’gh Sagar Saa’gar Vayu Vaa’yu

Maldives Madi -- Roanu -- Mekunu -- Hikaa --

Myanmar Nanauk Na-nauk Kyant Kyant Daye Da-ye Kyarr Kyarr

Oman Hudhud Hud’hud Nada N’nada Luban L’luban Maha M’maha

Pakistan Nilofar Ni lofar Vardah Var dah Titli Titli Bulbul Bul bul

Sri Lanka Ashobaa Ashobaa Maarutha Maarutha Gaja Gaja Pawan Pavan

Thailand Komen Goh-men Mora Moh-rar Phethai Pay-ti Amphan Um-pun

2.4 Bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi

2.4.1 Tropical weather outlook

The tropical weather outlook will be prepared once daily by RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi throughout the year. It will be transmitted on the GTS at 06 UTC every day. The outlook covering the North Indian Ocean indicates possible development of tropical depressions over the sea. An additional Tropical Weather outlook will be transmitted again on the GTS at 1500 UTC based on 1200 UTC observations when a depression is located over the north Indian Ocean region. The additional bulletin will be issued as and when felt necessary by RSMC, New Delhi

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II-32.4.2 Special Tropical weather outlook

The special tropical weather outlook issued in association with the depression will provide brief descriptions of tropical depressions affecting the area. It will give the location, intensity and movement of the system as well as a general statement of land areas coming under threat. It will also contain description of the convective clouds in satellite imageries and diagnostic & prognostic features of the system. It is issued twice a day based on 0300 and 1200 UTC observations. When the depression intensifies into a deep depression, the special tropical weather outlook issued five times a day based on 0000, 0300, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC observations will in addition contain the 120 hrs forecast track and intensity of the system in a tabular form. These track and intensity forecasts are issued for +6, +12, +18, +24, +36, +48, +60, +72, +84, +96, +108 and +120 hrs since May 2013.

When a system reaches the cyclonic storm stage (wind speed 34 kt), RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi will issue cyclonic storm advisories.

Examples-1 (Special Tropical Weather Outlook in association with a depression)

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-10-2013 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 08 OCTOBER, 2013 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 08 OCTOBER, 2013.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 08TH OCTOBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 12.00N AND LONGITUDE 96.00E, ABOUT 350 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR (43333), 1450 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 1520 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43149). THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY TOMORROW. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST DURING NEXT 72 HOURS.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING AREA BETWEEN LAT 8.50N TO 14.50N AND EAST OF LONG 88.50E TO TENASSERIM COAST. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT AND ORGANISATION DURING PAST 24 HRS. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -700C. THE SYSTEM SHOWS SHEAR PATTERN WITH CONVECTION SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1005 HPA.

REMARKS:SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25-30 KNOTS WIND SPEED IS RELATIVELY HIGHER IN SOUTHERN SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW.

THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 210N AND IS PROVIDING POLEWARD OUT FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL INDIA. HENCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED FURTHER IN PAST 24 HRS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-290C AND OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM SQUARE. THE SEA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS ABOUT 5-10M. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND HAS DECREASED AND IS ABOUT 10-20 KNOTS (LOW TO MODERATE). THE MADDEN JULLIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES OVER PHASE 6 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT MJO WOULD CONTINUE IN PHASE 6 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS.

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II-4MOST OF THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 72 HRS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST. THE NWP GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. IMD’S DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODEL SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A CYCLONIC STORM. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS NWP AND DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.

Examples-2 (Special Tropical Weather Outlook in association with a deep depression)

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-10-2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 09 OCTOBER, 2013 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 09 OCTOBER, 2013.

THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 09TH OCTOBER 2013 OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 13.00N AND LONGITUDE 93.50E, ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF MAYABANDAR (43309), 170 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR (43333), 1100 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 1200 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43149). THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDAMAN ISLANDS NEAR MAYABANDAR BY AFTERNOON OF TODAY, THE 9TH OCTOBER 2013 AS A CYCLONIC STORM. IT WOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP BY NIGHT OF 12TH

OCTOBER, 2013 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 175-185 KMPH.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.0. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING ISLANDS AND AREA BETWEEN LAT 10.00N TO 15.00N AND LONG 89.00E TO 95.00E AND EAST CENTRAL BAY. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT AND ORGANISATION DURING PAST 06 HRS. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -800C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

Date/Time(UTC) Position(Lat. 0N/ Long. 0E)

Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

Category

09-10-2013/0300 13.0/93.5 050-060 gusting to 070 Deep Depression09-10-2013/0600 13.5/93.0 060-070 gusting to 080 Cyclonic Storm09-10-2013/1200 14.0/92.5 065-075 gusting to 085 Cyclonic Storm09-10-2013/1800 14.5/92.0 085-095 gusting to 105 Cyclonic Storm10-10-2013/0000 15.0/90.0 095-105 gusting to 115 Severe Cyclonic Storm10-10-2013/1200 15.5/89.0 115-125 gusting to 140 Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/0000 16.0/88.0 135-145 gusting to 160 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/1200 16.5/87.0 155-165 gusting to 180 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/0000 17.0/86.0 175-185 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/1200 18.0/85.0 175-185 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/0000 19.5/84.5 065-075 gusting to 085 Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/1200 21.0/84.0 050–060 gusting to 070 Deep Depression14-10-2013/0000 23.0/83.5 040–050 gusting to 060 Depression

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II-5REMARKS:

SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS. MAYABANDAR REPORTED LOWEST MSLP OF 1002 HPA.THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 190N AND IS PROVIDING POLEWARD OUT FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL INDIA. HENCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HOURS.. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-290C AND OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 80-100 KJ/CM SQUARE. THE SEA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS ABOUT 5-10M. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND HAS DECREASED AND IS ABOUT 5-15 KNOTS (LOW TO MODERATE). THE MADDEN JULLIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES OVER PHASE 6 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT MJO WOULD CONTINUE IN PHASE 6 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS.

MOST OF THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 72 HRS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST. IMD’S DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODEL SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY TODAY AFTERNOON. THE NWP GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND ITS LIKELY LANDFALL BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP BY NIGHT OF 12TH OCTOBER. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS NWP AND DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.

2.4.3 Tropical cyclone advisories

When a tropical low pressure system reaches the cyclonic storm stage, or is shortly expected to reach that intensity, RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi will issue tropical cyclone advisories. Advisories will be issued at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC. The area of responsibility for the issue of tropical cyclone advisories by RSMC Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi cover sea areas of north Indian Ocean between long. 45° E to 100° E. Supplementary advisories may be issued as necessitated by circumstances, e.g., change in intensity or movement.

Tropical cyclone advisories will contain the information of tropical cyclone viz., name of the cyclone, the present location & intensity and past movement (past twelve hours) of the storm, and its forecast position, movement, intensity, maximum average surface wind speed with highest gust wind speed and sea conditions (in qualitative terms). These track and intensity forecasts are issued for +6, +12, +18, +24, +36, +48, +60, +72, +84, +96, +108 and +120 hrs. It also contains description of the convection as seen in satellite imageries and brief description of the diagnosis and prognosis of the system. The bulletin will contain the storm surge guidance based on IIT, Delhi Storm Surge prediction model in case of the cyclone landfalling over any member countries. Important information obtained from radar, synoptic, ship observations from the affected areas will also be reported in the advisory bulletin.

Advisories will be exchanged under appropriate headings for regional distribution by RTH, New Delhi on the GTS.

Example

FROM: RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHITO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA ( BANGLADESH ) STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAY PYI TAW (MYANMAR) STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)

STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)

OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORYRSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘PHAILIN’ ADVISORY NO. THIRTEEN ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 11TH OCTOBER 2013 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS of 11th OCTOBER.

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II-6THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 0530 HRS IST OF 11TH

OCTOBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 16.00N AND LONGITUDE 88.50E, ABOUT 520KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 530KM SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (43049), AND 530KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KALINGAPATNAM (43105). IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP, CLOSE TO GOPALPUR (ODISHA) BY EVENING OF 12TH OCTOBER, 2013 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 205-215 KMPH.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.5. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA ISLANDS AND AREA BETWEEN LAT 14.00N TO 17.00N AND LONG 86.00E TO 90.00E. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT AND ORGANISATION DURING PAST 03 HRS. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -860C. THE SYSTEM IS EYE PATTERN. EYE IS CIRCULAR WITH DIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 KM. EYE TEMP MINUS 6 DEG C

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 955 HPA.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION(LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

CATEGORY

11-10-2013/0000 16.0/88.5 185-195 GUSTING TO 210 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM11-10-2013/0600 16.4/87.7 190-200 GUSTING TO 215 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM11-10-2013/1200 17.0/86.9 200-210 GUSTING TO 225 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM11-10-2013/1800 17.4/86.3 205-215 GUSTING TO 230 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM12-10-2013/0000 17.9/85.8 205-215 GUSTING TO 230 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM12-10-2013/1200 19.2/85.0 205-215 GUSTING TO 230 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM13-10-2013/0000 20.2/84.5 080-090 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM13-10-2013/1200 21.2/84.2 090-100 GUSTING TO 110 DEEP DEPRESSION14-10-2013/0000 22.2/83.8 040-050 GUSTING TO 060 DEPRESSION

REMARKS: THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 200N AND IS PROVIDING POLEWARD OUT FLOW. PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LYING IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 06 HOURS.. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-290C AND OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 80-100 KJ/CM SQUARE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND HAS DECREASED AND IS ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS (LOW). THE MADDEN JULLIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS IN PHASE 6 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT MJO WOULD MOVE TO PHASE 7 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS.

MOST OF THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 48 HRS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST AND ITS LIKELY LANDFALL BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP NEAR GOPALPUR BY EVENING OF 12TH OCTOBER.. IMD’S DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODEL SUGGESTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS NWP AND DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.

2.4.4 Hourly update bulletin

The hourly update bulletin of system before landfall has been introduced since Cyclone ‘Hudhud’ (7-14 October, 2015). This bulletin contains location (lat/long) and intensity of the system.

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2.4.5 Tropical cyclone warnings for the high seas

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its Manual on Marine Meteorological Services has recommended the issue of weather and sea bulletins for the high seas in six parts. The first part relates to tropical storm warnings in plain language. Areas of responsibility of each nation for issuing the tropical storm warnings are pre-assigned (Fig.II-1).

The cyclone warning centres issuing forecasts and warnings for the benefit of the ships on the high seas in the Panel countries are listed in the Table II-2. The area covered by these stations in their bulletins, name of the coastal radio stations with their call signs from where the tropical cyclone warnings are broadcast, are also given in Table II-2.

AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY AND DESIGNATED NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESFOR THE ISSUE OF WARNINGS AND WEATHER AND SEA BULLETINS FOR THE GMDSS

Fig. II-1.

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TABLE II- 2Stations issuing cyclone warnings for ships on the high seas

Station Call sign of Coastal Area coveredRadio Station

Bangladesh, ASC Bay of Bengal north of 18oN Lat.Chittagong

India, Mumbai Arabian Sea north of Lat. 5oN and east of Long. 60oE excluding the area north of Lat. 20oN and west of Long. 68oE. The eastern boundary of the Arabian Sea for which these bulletins are issued by Mumbai is Long. 80oE meridian excluding the Gulf of Mannar.

India, Kolkata Bay of Bengal north of Lat. 5oN except the area between the coastline on the east and the line drawn through the points 18oN 94.5oE, 18oN 92oE, 13.5oN 92oE, 13.5oN 94oE, 10oN 94oE, 10oN 95oE and 5oN 95oE. The western boundary of the sea area for which bulletins are issued by Kolkata is up to and inclusive of the Gulf of Mannar (i.e., 77.5oE meridian).

*India, Chennai Bay of Bengal bulletins issued by ACWC Kolkata are being broadcast through Navtex, Chennai by Narrow Band Direct Printing ( NBDP )

Myanmar, Yangon XYR Bay of Bengal except area west of Long. 92oE and South of 10oN Lat.

Oman (Sultanate of) A4M Muscat Coastal Radio Station

**Pakistan, Karachi ASK Arabian Sea north of 20oN, Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf (12˚N-63˚E)

Sri Lanka, Colombo 4PB Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from the equator to 100N between 600E and 950E. The area 50N to 100N between 600E and 950E is an overlap with India.

Thailand, Bangkok HSA Gulf of Thailand, west of southern Thailand, Strait of Malacca and South China Sea.

* Under the new Marine Meteorological Broadcast system, GMDSS (Global Marine Distress Safety System) of IMO/WMO, India issues two bulletins at 0900 and 1800 UTC everyday for broadcast through INMARSAT SAFETY SYSTEM. Additional bulletins are broadcast during Cyclone period.

** To comply IMO/WMO GMDSS and marine Meteorological Broadcast System Pakistan issues the high seas forecast / Marine bulletins for metarea-IX daily at 0700 UTC for broadcast through INMARSAT SAFETYNET SYSTEM. These bulletins are issued at 1900 UTC if so required.

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Tropical cyclone warnings for the high seas contains the following informations:

(a) Type of warning and name of the issuing centre

(b) Name of the system and name of the basin

(c) Date and time of reference in UTC

(d) Type of disturbance (depression, cyclonic storm, etc.);

(e) Location in terms of latitude and longitude or with reference to well-known landmarks and ECP

(f) Direction and speed of movement of the disturbance

(g) Extent of affected area in nautical miles

(h) Wind speed or force and direction in the affected areas

(i) Sea and swell condition in affected areas (in qualitative terms)

(j) Other important information such as future position of disturbances

Items (a), (b), (c), (d),(e), (f) ,(g) and (h) listed above should always be included in thewarning bulletins.

Example:

VWM 1545 UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2008 CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE KOLKATA WARNING OF TROPICAL STORM. SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘KHAI MUK’ IN WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL CENTRED AT 1200 UTC 14 NOVEMBER 2008 WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH LONGITUDE 83.5 DEGREES EAST REPEAT 14.5 o

N 83.5o E AAA PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWESTWARDS AAA CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA (MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT). AREAS 35 KT WIND WITHIN RADIUS 80 NM AND AREAS 30 KT WIND WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS AAA STATE OF SEA VERY ROUGH TO HIGH WITHIN 300 KM OF TROPICAL STORM CENTRE AAA SYSTEM LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT 10 KT AAA (NEXT BULLETIN 1845 UTC) AAA

2.4.6 Warnings and advisories for aviation

In accordance with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Annex 3 — Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation/ WMO Technical Regulations [C.3.1], tropical cyclone warnings, required for the international air navigation, are issued by designated Meteorological Watch Offices (MWO) as SIGMET messages, including an outlook, giving information up to 24 hours ahead concerning the expected positions and maximum surface wind of the centre of the tropical cyclone. Each MWO provides information for one or more specified Flight Information Regions (FIRs) or Upper Information Regions (UIRs). The boundaries of the FIRs/UIRs are defined in ICAO Air Navigation Plans (ANP) for the Asia (ASIA), Middle East (MID) and Pacific (PAC) Regions.

The content and order of elements in a SIGMET message for tropical cyclone shall be in accordance with WMO Technical Regulations [C.3.1]. The data type designator to be included in the WMO abbreviated header of such messages shall be T1T 2 = WC (WMO No. 386, Manual on GTS refers).

The designated Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC), New Delhi shall monitor the development of tropical cyclones in its area of responsibility, in accordance with the ASIA/PAC ANP and issue advisory information concerning the positions of the centre of the cyclone, its direction and speed of movement, central pressure and maximum surface wind near the centre. These advisories are disseminated to the MWOs in the TCAC New Delhi area of responsibility, to be used in the preparation of the OUTLOOK appended to SIGMETs for tropical cyclones. In addition, the tropical cyclone advisories shall be disseminated to the other TCACs, whose areas of responsibility may be affected, to the World Area Forecast Centers (WAFC) London and Washington

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and international OPMET data banks and centers operating the satellite distribution systems (SADIS and ISCS).[C.3.1]. The data type designator to be included in the WMO abbreviated header of such messages shall be T1T2 = FK (WMO-No. 386, Manual on GTS, refers).

TCAC New Delhi is issuing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for its area of responsibility, for each tropical cyclone, as necessary, in the format specified by ICAO every six hours since 2003 and along with graphics from 2012.

TC ADVISORY

(i) Text message: A text message is sent through GTS under the header BMBB01 to various users as per the following format

TC ADVISORYDTG: 20141010/0000ZTCAC: NEW DELHITC: HUDHUDNR:10PSN: N1424 E08736MOV: NW06KTC: 984HPAMAX WIND: 55KTFCST PSN+06HR: 10/0600Z N1442 E08700FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 65 KTFCST PSN+12HR: 10/1200Z N1500 E08636FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 65KTFCST PSN+18HR: 10/1800Z N1518 E08612FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 70KTFCST PSN+24HR: 11/0000Z N1542 E08536FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 70KTRMK: NILNXT MSG: 20141010/0900ZTOO: 100830 HRS IST

(ii) Graphical TC advisory: The graphical advisory is sent in graphics in PNG format including text in it through GTS under the header T_PZXE89_C_DEMS. An example is shown in Fig.II-2.

Fig. II-2

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(iii) TC advisory to ADRR Hong Kong: TC advisory containing 24 hours forecast is also given to ADRR Hong Kong through FTP based on 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC observation in the following format.

Example:0002 <TC identifier>HUDHUD <TC Name>2014100712 12.0 94.0 30 O <yyyymmddhh Lat. Long. And O stands for observed and F stands for forecast>2014100718 12.0 93.5 30 O2014100800 12.2 93.0 30 O2014100806 12.5 92.5 40 O2014100812 12.8 91.0 40 O2014100818 13.2 90.2 45 O2014100900 13.7 89.2 45 O2014100906 13.9 88.8 50 O2014100912 14.1 88.4 55 O2014100918 14.1 87.9 55 O2014101000 14.4 87.6 55 O2014101006 14.7 87.0 65 F2014101012 15.0 86.6 65 F2014101018 15.3 86.2 70 F2014101100 15.7 85.6 70 F

2.4.7 Tropical cyclone warnings for national purposes

Information on tropical cyclone warnings provided nationally by Panel member countries, including the port warning system, is given in Annex II- A to Annex II- I to this Chapter.

2.4.8 Storm surge guidance

Storm surge warnings will be the responsibility of the National Meteorological Services. However, storm surge guidance will be issued and incorporated in the tropical cyclone advisory bulletin by RSMC- New Delhi based on IIT, Delhi Storm Surge prediction model and INCOIS, Hyderabab Advanced CIRCulation coastal inundation model. The storm surge guidance is appended in the Tropical Cyclone Advisory bulletin for Panel member countries. The graphical product from IIT Delhi and INCOIS, Hyderabad is also uploaded in cyclone page of IMD website. An example of this product is shown in Fig. II-3.

Fig. II-3

2.5 Graphical presentation of track and intensity

The track and intensity of the system will updated and put in cyclone page of IMD website time to time, based on the special tropical weather outlook and tropical cyclone advisory bulletin issued by RSMC, New Delhi from the stage of deep depression and based on 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. These are also sent by e-mail to the Panel member countries.

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2.5.1 Cone of uncertainty: The cone of uncertainty in the forecast was introduced with effect from the cyclone, ‘WARD’ during December, 2009 for the lead time 72 at an interval of 12 hrs. It was further revised with effect from cyclone ‘VIYARU’ during May, 2013 and extended upto 120 hrs for the same interval of time. It is helpful to the decision makers as it indicates the standard forecast errors in the forecast for different periods like 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108, 120 hrs. The standard errors (nm) as radius of the circle around the forecast position (lat/long) so as to construct the cone of uncertainty in the track forecast are given below. It has been implemented since cyclone ‘Hudhud’ (7-14 October, 2015).

Lead time (hrs) Standard error (nm) used for uncertainty forecast00 01012 03024 06036 08048 10060 12072 13584 15096 165108 180120 195

An example of track forecast with cone of uncertainty is shown in fig. II-4.

Fig.II-4 A typical example of observed and forecast track with cone of uncertainty.

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Observed and Forecast track with cone of Uncertainty based on 1200 UTC of 9th October 2014

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2.5.2 Quadrant wind forecast:(i) Graphical Product:

The forecast of maximum wind in four quadrants of a cyclone commenced with effect from cyclone, GIRI

during October 2010. In this forecast, the radius of 28, 34, 50 and 64 knot winds was given for various forecast

periods like +06, +12, +18, +24, +36, +48, +60 and +72 hrs. It was further revised with effect from cyclone

‘Viyaru’ during May, 2013 and extended upto 120 hrs for the same interval of time. A typical graphical

presentation of this forecast is shown in Fig.II-5. This bulletin is issued from Deep Depression stage onwards

based on 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. It is uploaded in IMD website and sent to focal points of WMO/ESCAP Panel

countries by e-mail.

Fig.II-5 An example of Quadrant wind forecast.(ii) Text Product:

The quadrant wind is also issued in text format and sent to various users through-mail and GTS under the header-WTIN31. It is also sent to various NWP modeling groups including NCMRWF, IIT Delhi for vertex

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relocation in coded form through ftp. It is provided to IIT Delhi & INCOIS storm surge modeling group also for their use.

Example (i):

QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL DATE AND TIME BASED UPON WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED: PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 081200 UTCPRESENT POSITION: 12.80N/91.00 EPOSITION ACCURATE TO 50 KMPRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 300/06KTPRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40KT, GUSTS 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 30 NMWINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANTRADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANTWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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FORECASTS:06 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z 13.1°N/90.50 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45KT, GUSTS 55KTRADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:

140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

12 HRS, VALID AT:090000Z 13.40N/90.10EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS : 50KT, GUSTS 60KTRADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:




18 HRS, VALID AT:090600 13.80N/89.60EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55KT, GUSTS 65 KTRADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:




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24 HRS, VALID AT:091200 14.20N/89.1°EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KTRADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:



RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:100000 14.7N/88.2°EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65KT, GUSTS 75KTRADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:





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II-1648 HRS, VALID AT:101200Z 15.50N/87.1°EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KTRADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:





60 HRS, VALID AT 110000Z 16.20N/86.0°EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT, GUSTS 80 KTRADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:







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120 HRS, VALID AT 131200Z 19.10N/80.3°EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 028 KT WINDS:140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

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Example (ii):

TC vital sent through ftp has been introduced in 2013. The format of TC vital is sent through ftp to NWP modelers. The format of this bulletin is given below along with an example.

Format

character*4 tcv_center ! Hurricane Center Acronym character*3 tcv_storm _id ! Storm Identifier (02B, etc)character*9 tcv_storm_name ! Storm nameinteger tcv_century ! 2-digit century id (19 or 20)integer tcv_yymmdd ! Date of observationinteger tcv_hhmm ! Time of observation (UTC)integer tcv_lat ! Storm Lat (*10), always >0character*1 tcv_latns ! 'N' or 'S'integer tcv_lon ! Storm Lon (* 10), always >0character*1 tcv_lonew ! 'E' or ‘W’integer tcv_stdir ! Storm motion vector (in deg.)integer tcv_stspd ! Spd of storm movement (m/s* 10)integer tcv_ pcen ! Min central pressure (hPa)integer tcv_penv ! val outermost closed isobar(hPa)integer tcv_penvrad ! rad outermost closed isobar(km)integer tcv_vmax ! max sfc wind speed (m/s)integer tcv_vmaxrad ! rad of max sfc wind spd (km)integer tcv_r15ne ! NE rad of 15 m/s winds (km)integer tcv_rl5se ! SE rad of 15 m/s winds (km)integer tcv_r l 5sw ! SW rad of 15 m/s winds (km)integer tcv_rl5nw ! NW rad of 15 m/s winds (km)character*1 tcv_depth ! Storm depth (S,M,D) X=missing

Example:

IMD 01B VIYARU 20130515 0000 160N 0870E 030 040 0996 1003 0250 020 060 0170 0170 0120 0140 D

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ANNEX II-A-1

CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SYSTEMS IN THE PANEL COUNTRIES

Existing classifications of low pressure systems (cyclonic disturbances) in the Panel countries are given below together with the WMO classifications.

Classification of low pressure systems (cyclonic disturbances)presently in use by Panel countries for national purposes)

Country Type of Disturbance Corresponding Wind Speed

Bangladesh Low pressure area Less than 17 knots (less than 31 km/h)Well marked low 17- 21 knots (31-40km/h)Depression 22- 27 knots (41-51km/h)Deep Depression 28- 33 knots (52-61km/h)Cyclonic storm 34 -47 knots (62-88 km/h)Severe cyclonic storm 48- 63knots (89-117 km/h)Severe cyclonic storm with a core of hurricane wind 64 – 119 knots (118-221km/h)Super cyclonic storm 120 knots and above (222 km/h or more)

India Low pressure area Less than 17 knotsDepression 17 -27 knotsDeep Depression 28- 33 knotsCyclonic storm 34 -47 knotsSevere cyclonic storm 48 -63 knotsVery severe cyclonic storm 64 -89 knotsExtremely severe cyclonic storm 90 -119 knotsSuper cyclonic storm 120 knots and above

Maldives Low pressure area Less than 17 knotsDepression 17- 27 knotsDeep Depression 28 -33 knotsCyclonic storm 34 -47knotsSevere cyclonic storm 48 -63knotsVery severe cyclonic storm 64 -119knotsSuper cyclonic storm 120 knots and above

Myanmar Low pressure area Less than 17 knotsDepression 17- 27 knotsDeep Depression 28 -33 knotsCyclonic storm 34 -47 knotsSevere cyclonic storm 48 -63 knotsVery severe cyclonic storm 64 -119 knotsSuper cyclonic storm 120 knots and above

Oman (Sultanate of Oman) Low Less than 17 knots

Depression 17-27 knots Deep depression 28-33 knots Tropical storm 34-63 knots Tropical cyclone 64 knots or more

Pakistan Depression 22- 27knotsDeep Depression 28- 33knotsCyclonic storm 34 -47knotsSevere cyclonic storm 48- 63knotsVery severe cyclonic storm 64- 119 knotsSuper cyclonic storm 120 knots or more

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ANNEX II-A-2

Country Type of Disturbance Corresponding Wind Speed

Sri Lanka Low pressure area Less than 17 knotsDepression 17- 27 knotsDeep Depression 28- 33 knotsCyclonic storm 34 -47 knotsSevere cyclonic storm 48- 63 knotsVery severe cyclonic storm 64 -119 knotsSuper cyclonic storm 120 knots and above

Thailand Tropical depression 27 - 33 knotsTropical Cyclones 34 knots and more

Yemen Low pressure area Less than 17 knotsDepression 17 -27 knotsDeep Depression 28- 33 knotsCyclonic storm 34 -47 knotsSevere cyclonic storm 48 -63 knotsVery severe cyclonic storm 64 -89 knotsExtremely severe cyclonic storm 90 -119 knotsSuper cyclonic storm 120 knots and above

WMO Tropical depression Up to 34 knotsClassification Moderate tropical storm 34- 47 knots(Vide WMONo.471) Severe tropical storm 48 -63 knots

Hurricane (or local synonym) Winds 64 knots and moreTropical disturbance of Wind speed uncertainUnknown intensity

Edition 2016 32

ANNEX II-B-1

Tropical Cyclone Warning System in Bangladesh

Organization

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is responsible for providing tropical cyclone warnings to Bangladesh and its coastal areas and for a designated portion of the high seas in the Bay of Bengal. Warnings and forecasts are issued under the authority of the Director, Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

The tropical storm warnings are provided from the Storm Warning Centre, Agargaon, Dhaka. This Centre is also responsible for issuing the weather warnings like “Nor’westers” (severe local storms) warning, etc.

Tracking

The tropical cyclones are tracked with the help of conventional observations, radar, satellite observations and model derived products.

Tropical cyclone warnings

Tropical cyclone warnings are provided to:

(i) The Honorable President(ii) The Honorable Prime Minister(iii) Control room, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM)(iv) All ministries(v) Sea Port Activities of Chittagong, Mongla, Cox’s Bazar and Payra(vi) The Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), Bangladesh Red Crescent Society(vii) The Armed Forces division, Bangladesh Navy, Bangladesh Air Force(viii) Inland river ports authorities(ix) Airport authorities(x) Concerned government officials(xi) The general public (through Betar (Radio) Television, electronic media and mass media) (xii) Fishing boats and trawlers in the sea(xiii) Coast Guard(xiv) The NGOs(xv) National Disaster Response Coordination Centre (NDRCC)

Stages of warnings

Warnings are issued in four stages for the government officials. The first stage called "Alert" is issued to all concerned whenever a disturbance is detected in the Bay as per Standing Orders for Disasters (SOD) of Bangladesh. In the second stage, cyclone warnings are issued in four stages as detailed below:

(i) (a) Distant Cautionary Signal- issued if a ship might run into danger during its voyage after leaving the harbour.

(b) Distant Warning Signal issued when there is no immediate danger of the port but a ship might run into the storm after leaving the port.

(ii) (a) Local Cautionary Signal – issued when port is threatened by squally weather from tropical disturbances or nor’westers.

(b) Local Warning Signal issued when the port is threatened by a storm, but it does not appear that the danger is as yet sufficiently great to justify extreme measures of precaution. It is issued minimum 24 hours before the landfall.

(iii) Danger Signal issued when the port is likely to experience severe weather from a storm ofslight or moderate intensity. The Signal is issued minimum 18 hours before the landfall.

(iv) Great Danger Signal issued when the port is likely to experience severe weather from a storm of great intensity. The signal is issued minimum 10 hours before the landfall.

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ANNEX II-B-2

Format of the cyclone warning bulletin

Cyclone warning bulletins contain the following information:

(i) Name of the storm(ii) Position of the storm centre(iii) Direction and speed of movement in knots for international use and km/h for national use.(iv) Distance of the storm centre from the ports.(v) Maximum sustained wind within the radius of maximum wind of the disturbance.(vi) Signals for the maritime ports.(vii) Areas likely to be affected specifying Police Station (Thana) of subdivision as far as possible.(vii) Approximate time of commencement of gale winds (speed more than 51 km/ h).(viii) Storm surge height in meter and areas likely to be inundated.(ix) Advisory for fishing boats and trawlers over North Bay and Deep Sea.

Tropical cyclone warnings for the high seas

Tropical cyclone warnings for the high seas in Bangladesh are provided from the Storm Warning Centre at Dhaka and are broadcast from the coastal radio station at Chittagong (ASC). Warnings are issued for the Bay of Bengal region north of 18o N latitude.

Warnings to ports

In accordance with international procedure, ports are warned and advised to hoist "Signals" whenever adverse weather is expected over the ports for the oceanic areas, in which it is located due to the tropical cyclone. However, regional difference exists. The warning messages normally contain information on the location, intensity, direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and the expected weather over the port. The tropical cyclone signals used in Bangladesh ports along with their meaning are given in Attachment to Annex II-B.

Dissemination

Warnings are disseminated through high priority landline telegrams, telefax, telephone and teleprinter. In addition, warnings are also transmitted to Betar (Radio) Bangladesh, Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Rangpur, Rajshahi and Sylhet for broadcast. Alert messages are broadcast four to five times a day. "Warnings" are broadcast every hour and "Danger" and "Great Danger" messages are broadcast frequently.

Dissemination of tropical cyclone warnings(i) Telefax

(ii) Telephones

(iii) Automatic Message Switching System (AMSS)

(iv) Bangladesh Betar ( Radio)

(v) Television

(vi) Through print & electronic media

(vii) W/T

(viii) Internet, by keeping information on BMD website

(http:www.bmd.gov.bd).

(ix) Social Media (Facebook)

(x) Email

(xi) Interaction Voice Recording (IVR)

Edition 2016 34

ANNEX II-C-1

Cyclone warning system in India

The India Meteorological Department is responsible for providing tropical cyclone warnings in India. The tropical cyclone warning service is one of the most important functions of the India Meteorological Department and it was the first service undertaken by the Department in 1865 with the issue of Port Warnings for Calcutta. Thus cyclone warning service is more than 150 years old.

Organization

Tropical cyclone warnings in India are provided through three Area Cyclone Warning Centres (ACWCs) located at Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai and three Cyclone Warning Centres at Bhubaneswar, Visakhapatnam and Ahmedabad. The entire cyclone warning work is coordinated by the Scientist-G and Head (Services) at New Delhi.

Tracking of tropical cyclonesTracking of the tropical cyclones in India is done with the help of:

(vii) Conventional surface and upper air observations from inland and island stations, coastal Automatic Weather Station (AWS), ships and buoy observations;

(ii) Cyclone detection radar including Doppler Weather Radar; (iii) Satellite cloud pictures from the Geostationary Satellite (INSAT 3D, INSAT 3A & Kalpana1) and

polar orbiting satellites.

More details on the observing system are provided in a separate chapter.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Details about tropical forecasting procedures are discussed in Chapter-IV.Tropical cyclone warnings

The bulletins and warnings issued in connection with tropical cyclones in India may be divided intothe following broad categories:

(i) Warning bulletins for shipping on the high seas.(ii) Warning bulletins for ships plying in the coastal waters.(iii) Port warnings.(iv) Fisheries warnings. ( Fishermen & Fisheries Officials )(v) Four stage warnings for the State and Central Government officials.(vi) Warnings for recipients who are registered with the department (Designated/registered

users).(vii) Warning for aviation.(viii) Warnings for the general public through All India Radio, TV (including Doordarshan), Press and

other electronic media.(ix) Warning for Indian Navy.

Format and examples of all these bulletins are shown as Attachment to Annex II-C1

Bulletins for the high seas

These bulletins are for the shipping interests on the high seas. The area covered by these bulletins is the sea area between the Asian Coast and the line joining the points 240 N 680 E, 200 N 680 E, 200 N 600 E, 50 N 600 E, 50 N 950 E, 100 N 950 E, 100 N 940 E, 130 30'N 940 E, 130 30'N 920 E, 180 N 920 E and 180 N 940 30'E. The exact area of coverage is shown below (fig.- Annex II-C-I).

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ANNEX II-C-2

Fig. II-C-I. The exact area of coverage

These bulletins are issued by the Area Cyclone Warning Centres at Kolkata and are broadcast by the Coastal Radio Stations of the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) and ”NAVTEX Chennai”. These bulletins are issued by the Area Cyclone Warning Centres; Mumbai is available to the users through e-mail/fax and uploaded in the website of RMC Mumbai. The bulletins for the Arabian Sea broadcast from Mumbai Radio are issued by the Area Cyclone Warning Centre at Mumbai, whilst those for the Bay of Bengal, broadcast from Kolkata and Chennai Radio, are issued by the Area Cyclone Warning Centre at Kolkata. Under the GMDSS programme of WMO/IMO, India is issuing GMDSS bulletins for met area VIII (N) daily at 0900 UTC and 1800 UTC with additional warning during cyclone period. These bulletins consist of six parts. They are:

Part I : Tropical Cyclone Warning in plain language.

Part II : Synopsis of weather conditions in the forecast area in plain language.

Part III : Forecast in plain language.

Part IV : Analysis of the surface synoptic chart in IAC Fleet Code.

Part V : Data of observations from ships in WMO codes.

Part VI : Data of observations from selected land stations and upper air reports in WMO codes.

In normal undisturbed weather, two bulletins are broadcast at fixed hours known as "Daily" bulletins. In the event of disturbed weather (depression in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea), a third bulletin known as "Extra" bulletin is broadcast.

When a cyclonic storm has developed, three additional bulletins known as 'Storm' bulletins are broadcast. In addition to these six bulletins, if any unexpected development of weather warrants urgent communication to ships, a "Special" bulletin is issued which may be broadcast at any time. These bulletins are broadcast according to a schedule at fixed hours. Daily bulletins broadcast from Mumbai and Kolkata consist of all the above six parts, while those from Chennai consist only of Parts I, II and III. "Extra", "Storm" and "Special" bulletins contain only Part I.

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ANNEX II-C-3

Coastal Weather Bulletins

These bulletins give weather information in greater detail in the coastal areas for the benefit of ships plying mainly in coastal areas. For the purpose of these bulletins, the coastal area is defined as the sea area up to 75 km off the coastline.

As in the case of sea bulletins for merchant ships, the coastal bulletins are broadcast from Navtex, Chennai. In normal weather coastal bulletins are broadcast twice daily (Daily One at 0630 UTC and Daily Two at 1830 UTC respectively). These are known as "Daily" bulletins. Whenever a depression, tropical cyclone or some other phenomenon influences the weather of the coastal strip concerned "Extra", "Storm" and "Special" bulletins for the coastal strip are also broadcast in addition to "Daily" bulletins.

Each bulletin first gives the name of the coastal strip to which it pertains followed by the details of the weather system, if any, affecting the coastal area. It also includes a forecast of wind, weather, visibility and state of sea for the coastal strip. Information on storm surges/tidal waves and areas likely to be affected are given whenever necessary. The bulletins also give information regarding storm warning signals, if any, hoisted at the ports in the coastal strip concerned.

The coastal bulletins pertaining to India coast are sent to control room of Director General of Lighthouse and Light ships (DGLL) at Mumbai though e-mail and Automated message switching System (AMSS) at IMD, Mumbai for broadcast through 11 Navtex stations along the coast. These bulletins are also uploaded on RSMC Website (www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in)

Storm warnings to ports

A visual storm warning signal system for the Bay of Bengal ports, chiefly for the port of Kolkata, has been in existence since 1865. A similar system for the ports on the west coast was started in 1880. A uniform system applicable to all Indian ports was introduced in 1898.

The India Meteorological Department issues storm warnings to port officers whose ports are likely to be affected by adverse weather. They are also advised to hoist visual storm warning signals for the benefit of ships at the port and those out at sea. The information is, in most cases, conveyed by very high priority telegrams/fax/e-mail.

The storm warning signals, which are displayed prominently on masts in ports, are in the form of cones and cylinders for day signals and red and white lamps for night signals. In addition to hoisting signals, port officers have, in most cases, arrangements for disseminating the information and warnings received by them to country crafts and sailing vessels in the harbor.

The meaning of the signals used in Indian ports is given in Attachment to Annex II-C2.

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http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/

ANNEX II-C-4

Tropical storm warnings to government officials (Four stage warnings)

A “pre-cyclone watch” bulletin is issued by DGM himself soon after the formation of a depression informing senior central government officials including chief secretary of coastal maritime States about likely development of a cyclonic storm, its movements, coastal belt of India likely to experience adverse weather. This bulletin is issued at least 72 hours in advance of commencement of adverse weather.

At the second stage, a "cyclone alert" is issued at least 48 hours in advance of the expected commencement of adverse weather in association with the cyclonic storm over the coastal area. The third stage of the warning, known as "cyclone warning" is issued at least 24 hours in advance of commencement of severe weather. The last stage of warning covering the post-landfall scenario is included in the cyclone warnings issued 12 hrs before the expected time of landfall and is continued till the cyclonic wind force is maintained in the core area of the cyclonic storm over land.

Post landfall outlook

Post-landfall outlook will be issued as a part of cyclone warning at least 12 hours in advance of the landfall of the system by RSMC New Delhi and the concerned ACWC. On the basis of this outlook, the concerned RMC/MC which are likely to be affected will also issue cyclone warnings for the interior area. This is the regular cyclone warning.

Dewarning MessageAs and when a given coastal belt is expected to become free from the impact of TCs, a dewarning

message is issued to the ports and disaster management agencies in India as a part of four stage warning system.

Tropical cyclone bulletins to All India Radio (AIR) for broadcast

In general, weather bulletins are issued by the meteorological offices to the AIR stations for broadcast in the midday transmissions. These are based on 0300 UTC charts. The areas covered by the bulletins are the areas served by the respective AIR stations (AM and FM). These bulletins include:

(i) A summary of the past weather;(ii) special weather warnings for public services such as the Public Works Department, Irrigation,

DoT, Railways, etc. &(iii) General forecast including warnings.

Points (ii) and (iii) are valid until the morning of the second day. The summary of weather includes information about tropical storms and depressions affecting the area. The centre of the system is included with reference to the nearest well known place and latitude and longitude. Warnings in bulletins once included are repeated in the subsequent daily bulletins also as long as adverse weather is anticipated. In addition, meteorological centres in the maritime states include suitable warnings for fishermen. These general bulletins are broadcast at a fixed time (midday) by the AIR stations and are intended to meet the requirements of the public in general and the needs of various categories of officials in particular.

In addition, special AIR bulletins containing cyclone alert messages issued 48 hours prior to the commencement of the adverse weather and tropical cyclone warning messages issued 24 hours prior to the commencement of the adverse weather in the coastal areas due to an approaching tropical storm are broadcast. These broadcasts are meant to alert the agencies entrusted with the responsibility of carrying out cyclone preparedness works and also the general public.

(For framing the tropical storm warning bulletins to AIR and Doordarshan abbreviated terms like "cyclone" for cyclonic storm, "severe cyclone" for the severe cyclonic storm and "super cyclone" for super cyclonic storm etc. are also used.)

The height of the storm surge is included in the bulletin in meters and it represents height above the normal tide level. The coastal districts likely to be affected by the storm are mentioned in the first sentence of the bulletins. The types of damage likely to be expected from systems of various intensities along with the suggested action are also included. For this purpose the following table is referred.

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ANNEX II-C-5

Damage Potential and Action Suggested

Category/T.No/Wind Speed

Structures Communication & Power

Road/Rail Agriculture Marine Interests

Coastal Zone

Overall Damage Category

Suggested Actions

Deep DepressionT 2.052 – 61 kmph(28-33 knots)

Minor damage to loose / unsecured structures

Some breaches in Kutcha road due to flooding.

Minor damage to Banana trees and near coastal agriculture due to salt spray. Damage to ripe paddy crops.

Very rough seas. Sea waves about 4-6 m high.

Minor damage to Kutcha embankments.

Minor Fishermen advised not to venture into sea.

Cyclonic StormT 2.5-T 3.062 – 87 kmph(34-47 knots)

Damage to thatched huts.

Minor damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of branches.

Major damage to Kutcha and minor damage to Pucca roads.

Some damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards.

High to very high sea waves about 6-9 m high.

Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.

Minor to moderate.

Fishermen advised not to venture into sea.

Severe Cyclonic StormT 3.588-117 kmph(48-63 knots)

Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.

Minor damage to power and communication lines.

Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.

Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.

Phenomenal seas with wave height 9-14 m. Movement in motor boats unsafe.

Major damage to coastal crops. Storm surge upto 1.5 m (area specific) causing damage to embankments/ salt pans. Inundation upto 5 km in specific areas.

Moderate Fishermen advised not to venture into sea. Coastal hutment dwellers advised to move to safer places. Other people in the affected areas to remain indoors.

Very Severe Cyclonic StormT 4.0- T 4.5118-166 kmph

Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive

Bending/ uprooting of power and communication

Major damage to Kutcha and and Pucca roads. Flooding of

Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations

Phenomenal seas with wave height more than 14 m.

Storm surge upto 2 m. Inundation upto 10 km in

Large Fishermen not to venture into sea. Evacuation from

Edition 2016 39

(64-89 knots)

damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

poles. escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead powerlines and signalling systems.

, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.

Visibility severely affected. Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

specific areas. Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

coastal areas need to be mobilized. People advised to remain indoors. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic needed.

Extremely Severe Cyclonic StormT 5.0- T 6.0167-221 kmph (90-119 knots)

Extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. Potential threat from flying objects.

Extensive uprooting of communication and power poles.

Disruption of rail/road link at several places.

Extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards. Blowing down of Palm and coconut trees. Uprooting of large bushy trees.

Phenomenal seas with wave height more than 14 m. Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable.

Storm surge upto 2-5 m. Inundation may extend upto 10-15 km in specific areas. Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.

Extensive Fishermen not to venture into sea. Evacuation from coastal areas essential. Diversion/ suspension of rail and road traffic may be required.

Super Cyclonic Storm T 6.5 and above222 kmph and more (120 knots and more)

Extensive damage to non-concrete residential and industrial buildings. Structural damage to concrete structures. Air full of large projectiles.

Uprooting of communication and power poles. Total disruption of communication and power supply.

Extensive damage to Kutcha roads and some damage to poorly repaired pucca roads. Large scale submerging of coastal roads due to flooding and sea water inundation. Total disruption of railway and road traffic due to major damages to bridges, signals and railway tracks. Washing away of rail/road links at several places.

Total destruction of standing crops/ orchards.Uprooting of large trees and blowing away of palm and coconut crowns, stripping of tree barks.

Phenomenal seas with wave heights of more than 14m.All shipping activities unsafe.

Extensive damage to port installations. Storm surge more than 5m, inundation upto 40 km in specific areas and extensive beach erosion. All ships torn from their moorings. Flooding of escape routes.

Catastrophic

Fishermen not to venture into sea.Large scale evacuations needed.Total stoppage of rail and road traffic needed in vulnerable areas.

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These bulletins are generally issued at the time of each sea area bulletin. The frequency of the bulletin can be raised when the tropical storm is tracked with the help of radar and previous warnings issued needs modification.

A third set of bulletins issued to AIR is the coastal weather bulletins. Whenever a cyclonic storm is likely to affect the Indian coastal areas, coastal weather bulletins issued by the India Meteorological Department are broadcast in the All India News Cycles of All India Radio from New Delhi in English, Hindi and in the regional language of the area affected. These bulletins contain information on the following:1) Time of issue of bulletin in IST2) Coastal strip for which bulletin issued and period of validity3) Position, intensity and movement of cyclonic storm4) Forecast point and time of landfall5) Signals hoisted at the ports in the coastal strip6) Information of storm surges/tidal waves

Edition 2016 41

ANNEX II-C-6

Dissemination of tropical cyclone warnings

The modes of telecommunication used for the dissemination of tropical cyclone warnings in India are:

(i) Telefax(ii) Telephones

(iii) Automatic Message Switching System (AMSS)

(iv) All India Radio

(v) Television

(vi) FM Radio

(vii) Community Radio

(viii) DTH

(ix) Cyclone Warning Dissemination System (CWDS), Digital Cyclone Warning Dissemination

System (DCWDS) one way communication system

(x) W/T (especially police W/T)

(xi) Internet, by keeping information on IMD website (http://:www.imd.gov.in )/RSMC

website(www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in).

(xii) Microwave link of the railways

(xiii) IVRS

(xiv) e-mail

(xv) SMS

(xvi) GMDSS

(xvii) NAVTEX for coastal weather bulletin

(xviii) Social Media (Face Book and Tweeter)

It is also being planned to issue cyclone alert through Google platform from postmonsoon season of 2015

The following warnings/advisory products are given in the dynamic page of cyclone page of IMD’s website/RSMC webstie. When one type of communication channel fails, the alternate channel is used.

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ANNEX II-C-7

Edition 2016 43

ANNEX II-D-1

Cyclone warning system in Maldives

The Maldives Meteorological Service (MMS) issue tropical cyclone and severe weather warning to the public and travelers across the country.

Tracking of Tropical CycloneConventional observations, such as surface, upper air observations, automatic weather stations, ship

reports, and radar and satellite observations are utilized for observing, detecting and tracking tropical cyclones. Numerical Weather Prediction models produced in-house and NWP charts provided by RIMES and advisories from RSMC are also used by forecasters.

Advisories and WarningsAdvisories and Warnings are issued for:Heavy Rain, ThunderstormsStrong Wind, TornadoRough Seas, Tidal/ Swell Waves

Advisories and Warnings are sent to:Government’s Executive ManagementNational Disaster ManagementMinistry of Defense and National SecurityMaldives Police ServiceCoast GuardAviation SectorsTourism, Transport, Health SectorsFisheries, Agriculture, Education SectorsTV media, Print media, Radio service.

Dissemination of WarningThe National Meteorological Centre has established the following means of communication for the

dissemination of the warning.

Hotlines - Dedicated point to point telephone line between stake holders and NMCSMS text messagesLocal TV ChannelsLocal Radio Channels Internet (http://www.meteorology.gov.mv) and emailFacsimile

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http://www.meteorology.gov.mv/

ANNEX II-D-2

Alert and Warning criteria

Alert Level Description Action

1

WH

ITE

- Mean wind speed is expected or prevailed between 23 – 30 mph.

- Rainfall of more than 50 mm is expected to occur within 24 hours.

- High tidal waves are expected.

Weather Information, but no immediate threat.

2

YELLOW

- Mean wind speed is expected or prevailed between 30 – 40 mph.

- Torrential rain is expected and if heavy rain occurred for more than 2 hours.

- A severe thunderstorm is expected or experienced.

- Tropical Cyclone is formed within effective areas of Maldives.

- Significant tidal or swell waves expected or experienced.

Concern authorities and people living in the area to be on alert & be ready to take action. Travel by sea not advisable.

3

RED

-Flash flood is expected.-A tropical Cyclone is tracked to move closer or cross Maldives islands.-Destructive tidal or swell waves or storm surge is expected or observed.

Evacuation of population from threatened areas to safer places. Prohibition of sea transportation.

4 GR

EEN

The condition has improved. Cancel warning

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ANNEX II-E-1

Cyclone warning system in Myanmar

Cyclone warning system in Myanmar

OrganizationTropical cyclone warnings in Myanmar are provided by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology

(DMH), Myanmar. Tropical cyclone warnings are provided from the Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center of DMH in Nay Pyi Taw.

Tracking of Tropical CycloneConventional observations, such as surface and upper air observations, ships' reports, and radar and

satellite observations are utilized for observing, detecting and tracking tropical cyclones.

Tropical cyclone warningsThe Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center of DMH in Nay Pyi Taw is responsible for providing tropical

cyclone and storm surge warnings to its coastal population, the ports along the Myanmar coast and for the designated area of the high seas in the Bay of Bengal. 24x7 Storm Watch Centers: Nay Pyi Taw Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre, Yangon Forecasting office, Mingaladon International Airport Aviation Forecasting office and all coastline observatories watch the storms whenever cyclones develop in the Bay of Bengal.

Storm news and warnings are issued at frequent intervals for national and international users in various sectors. Special storm warnings accompanied with color code and possible storm affected specific areas are issued hourly to all news media. National televisions televised all hourly news continuously in footnote rolling format frequently.

The area designated for Myanmar for providing warnings is the area of the Bay of Bengal east of 92˚ E and north of 10˚ N. Warnings are broadcast through the coastal radio station at Yangon (call sign XYR).

Port warning signals and their meanings used in the ports of Myanmar are given in Attachment to Annex II-E.

Dissemination of Storm WarningCollection and dissemination of meteorological data and warnings are done with the coordination of

Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications and Department of Civil Aviation point-to-point circuit. The modes of telecommunication used for the dissemination of tropical cyclone warnings in Myanmar are:

1. Telephone2. Facsimile3. Local TV (3 Channel)4. Myanmar Radio5. FM Radio6. DMH website- www.moezala.gov.mm7. Single Side Band Transceiver

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http://www.moezala.gov.mm/

ANNEX II-F-1

Tropical Cyclone Warning System in Oman

OrganizationTropical cyclone warnings in Oman are provided by the Central Forecasting Office under the Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) which falls under Public Authority for Civil Aviation in cooperation with the National Committee for Civil Defense (NCCD).

Tracking

The Oman Regional Model as well as other international numerical weather prediction products are used for early warning. The Tropical Cyclones are tracked with the help of surface and upper air observation, satellite imagery and aircraft observations.The tropical cyclones are tracked with the help of conventional surface and upper air observations, satellite images particularly the Kalpana-1 INSAT 3A.

Tropical Cyclone Warning

Tropical cyclone warnings are provided for:

(i) The high seas(ii) Coastal waters(iii) Ports(iv) Civilian and military aviation(v) Governmental officials(vi) General public including fishermen(vii) Recipients registered with the DGMAN

Warning Procedures

The Central Forecasting Office will issue tropical storm report, advisory, warnings and amendments every 12 hours or more frequently if required by changing conditions. The Advisory or warning will contain the following information

(i) Number(ii) Date and time(iii) Name of Storm(iv) Classification(v) Position of the Tropical storm(vi) Intensity(vii) Central pressure (viii) Movement the direction and speed(ix) Wind direction and speed around the centre(x) Destination from a coastal point(xi) Outlook

In the event the storm is expected to approach the coast of Oman, the following bulletins will be issued according to the stage:

Edition 2016 47

ANNEX II-F-2

Reports

When it is expected that a depression, storm, severe storm or cyclone may approach Oman coast within 72 hours, a report will be issued and it will be renewed every other 24 hours.

Advisory

When it is expected that a depression, storm, severe storm or cyclone May approach Oman coast within 48 hours an advisory will be issued and it will be renewed every other 6 hours.

Warning

When it is expected that a depression, storm, severe storm or cyclone may approach Oman coast within 24 hours a warning will be issued and it will be renewed every other 3 hours.

Last Report

When it is expected that a depression, storm, severe storm or cyclone is dissipating a report will be issued clearing the event.

Bulletins for high sea

Tropical cyclones warnings for the high seas in Oman are provided by the Central Forecasting Office located at Muscat International Airport and broadcasted from the Muscat coastal radio station at Muscat whose call sign is A4M.

Warnings for Ports

The Central Forecasting Office issues warnings to ports whenever adverse weather is expected to affect themThe main ports are:1- Mina Sultan Qaboos in Muscat2- Mina Salalah3- Mina Sohar4- Wudam Naval Base5- Khasab6- Qalhat7- Al-Duqm

Dissemination of the Tropical Cyclone Warnings

The modes of telecommunication used for the dissemination of tropical cyclone warnings and advisories to different categories of recipients are:1- Telephones2- Telefax3- Internet (E-mail, web site & Facebook and Twitter Page)4- Short Massages Service (SMS)5- Wireless Application protocol WAP6- Voice Mail Pager System7- Oman Radio8- Oman Television9- Muscat Radio Coastal Station

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ANNEX II-F-3

Bulletins for the High Seas

Tropical cyclones warnings for the high seas in Oman are provided by the Central Forecasting Office located at Muscat international Airport and are broadcast from the Muscat Coastal Radio Station at Muscat, whose call sign is A4M.

Warnings to Ports

The Central Forecasting Office of the Meteorological Department issues storm warnings to ports whenever adverse weather is expected to affect them.The main Ports are:

(i) Mina Sultan Qaboos in Muscat(ii) Mina Salalah(iii) Wudam Naval Base(iv) Khasab(v) Sohar(vi) Qalhat(viii) Al-Dukm

Dissemination of Tropical Cyclone Warnings

The modes of telecommunication used for the dissemination of tropical cyclone warnings and advisoriesto different categories of recipients are:(i) Telephones(ii) Telefax(iii) Voice Mail Pager System(iv) Oman Radio(v) Oman Television(vi) Muscat Radio Coastal Station(vii) Web site: www.met.gov.om & Facebook /Twitter Page(viii) Email

Edition 2016 49

http://www.met.gov.om/

ANNEX II-G-1

Tropical cyclone warning system in Pakistan

Pakistan Meteorological Department is responsible for the preparation and issuance of tropical cyclone warnings in Pakistan. The tropical cyclone warnings are issued by Marine Meteorology & Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre of PMD.

Tracking of the tropical cyclones

Tracking of the tropical cyclone in Pakistan is done with the help of following:

(i) Conventional surface and upper air observations from inland stations and ships'observations

(ii) Model outputs and guidance from the global tropical cyclones warning centres(iii) The NWP products of High resolution Regional Model (implemented at PMD)(iv) Cyclone detection radar(v) Meteorological satellites data products.(vi) AWSs installed at coast along Sindh and Makran (Balochistan)

Tropical cyclone Watch, Alert and Warning

Tropical cyclone Watch, Alert and Warning are issued by PMD’s Marine Meteorology & Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre as per following criteria:

Tropical cyclone Watch is issued when a tropical cyclone gets formed or enters the Arabian Sea north of Lat. 10oN. Tropical cyclone Watch is issued irrespective of cyclone’s threat to affect Pakistan’s coastal areas. The issuance of tropical cyclone Watch requires the concerned authorities to be watchful.

Tropical cyclone Alert is issued when there is likelihood that tropical cyclone may affect Pakistan’s coastal areas.

Tropical cyclone Warning is issued when there is very likelihood that tropical cyclone may affect Pakistan coast. Tropical cyclone warnings are issued every three (3) or six (6) hours and/or whenever necessary and imperative.


The bulletins and warnings issued in connection with tropical cyclones in Pakistan are divided into the following broad categories:

i. Warning bulletins for shipping on the high seasii. Warning bulletins for ships plying in the coastal watersiii. Port warningsiv. Fisheries warningsv. Warnings for Government officials and functionaries including National Disaster Management

Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) and District Management Authorities (DDMAs)

vi. Warnings for recipients who are registered with PMDvii. Warnings for aviationviii. Warnings for the general public through electronic and print mediaix. Warnings to CBOs, NGOs and INGOsx. Warning to Search and Rescue (SAR) Operations

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ANNEX II-G-2

Types of warnings

Bulletins for the high seas

These bulletins are for the shipping interests on the high seas. The area covered includes the North Arabian Sea (north of 20o N). Coverage is shown in Fig. II-1

These bulletins are issued by the PMD’s Marine Meteorology -Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi and are broadcast by the Coastal Radio Stations. These bulletins consist of three parts.

Part I : Tropical Cyclone Warning in plain language.Part II : Synopsis of weather conditions in the forecast area in plain language.Part III : Forecast in plain language (for weather, wind, visibility and sea state etc.).

During normal undisturbed weather, two bulletins are broadcast at fixed hours known as "Daily" bulletins. In the event of disturbed weather additional bulletins are issued.

Storm warnings to ports

PMD’s Marine Meteorology &Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre issues warnings to the Ports whose parts are likely to be affected by adverse weather. They are also advised to hoist the visual storm warning signals for the benefit of ships at the port and those out at sea. The information is, in most cases, conveyed by facsimile, SMS and telephone. The meaning of the port warning signals used in Pakistan ports is given in Attachment to Annex-II-G.


The modes of telecommunication used for the dissemination of tropical cyclone warnings inPakistan are:

i. Coastal Radio (ASK)ii. Telephonesiii. Electronic and print mediaiv. Radio Pakistanv. Pakistan televisionvi. Telex/Telefaxvii. Internet, PMD’s website: www.pmd.gov.pk viii. SMS and ix. FM radios

The mode of telecommunication differs for different types of messages. When one type of communication channel fails, the alternate channel is used.

Storm Surge Analysis

The storm surge analysis (using IIT_D model) is carried out on the basis of available climatological data for the guidance and awareness of public in general and concerned authorities in particular for preparedness and evacuation of coastal communities and safety of lives and properties; well in advance.

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http://www.pmd.gov.pk/

ANNEX II-H-1

Cyclone warning system in Sri Lanka

Organization

The responsibility of the cyclone warning in Sri Lanka rests with the Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka. Tropical cyclone warnings are provided from the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) Colombo.

Tracking

Tropical cyclones are tracked with the help of conventional observations, radar, satellite observations and aircraft reports. These are dealt with in more detail in a separate chapter.


Tropical cyclone advisories/ alerts/ warnings are issued under two criteria, viz., Distance from the Coast and Intensity of the System, each criterion having key stages.

(a). Distance Criterion

(i) When a depression or a cyclonic storm is about 550 km off the coast.

In addition to distance of storm centre from coast, this bulletin indicates forecast conditions on the (a) speed and direction of movement and (b) maximum surface wind speed likely. This bulletin is issued every twelve (12) hours and wherever imperative.

(ii) When the cyclonic storm is 300 km off the coast.

In addition to above contents, information on areas likely to be affected are provided. This bulletin is issued every six (6) hours and wherever imperative. and

(iii) When the cyclonic storm is 200 km off the coast.

If landfall is indicated, a bulletin is issued every three (3) hour and wherever imperative. This bulletin includes additional information on point of landfall, storm surges and areas likely to be inundated.

Signal No.

Colour Description Action required

1 White Potential area of development Information only, vessels at sea to be vigilant. 2 White Cyclone has formed Information only, vessels to avoid the area,

listen to media.3 Yellow Weather experienced in coastal

region, sea getting roughVessels to avoid the area, people to stay away from sea/ beach.

4 Yellow Raining with windy (~40 knots), sea rough

Stay away from beach, vessels in danger, be inside building.

5 Yellow Heavy rain with very strong wind (>40 knots)

Be ready to leave buildings with weak structures (in relevant areas only) and low lying (flood prone) areas, secure your home/valuables.

6 Red Heavy rain with very strong wind >40 kts, cyclone expected to cross land

Evacuate to pre-designated safe places

7 Red Severe weather very strong wind (>50 knots), severe cyclone expected to cross land

Evacuate to pre-designated safe places

8 Green Cyclone warning cancellation/withdrawal bulletin

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ANNEX II-H-2

Four colour code with flags are used for easy and quick under standing

(b). Intensity Criterion (Signal levels)

(i) When the cyclonic storm is 300 km off the coast.

In addition to above contents, information on areas likely to be affected are provided. This bulletin is issued every six (6) hours and wherever imperative and

(ii) When the cyclonic storm is 200 km off the coast and if landfall is indicated, a bulletin is issued every three (3) hour and wherever imperative. This bulletin includes additional information on point of landfall, storm surges and areas likely to be inundated.

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ANNEX II-H-3

Tropical cyclone warning

Tropical cyclone warnings for different users

Relevant Government Officials including HE President & Prime Minister Disaster Management Centre (DMC) General Public Media The Armed Services & Police Local Administrations of relevant districts and Irrigation, Highways etc.

Specific users

Coastal fishing Shipping and Aviation

Tropical cyclonic warnings for the high seas

For the high seas, the tropical cyclone warnings are provided from NMC Colombo and broadcast through the coastal radio station Colombo Radio (4PB). The area covered by the warnings is the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal from the equator to 100 N between 600 E and 950 E. The port warning signal used are given in Attachment to Annex II-H


The warnings/bulletins for the high seas are disseminated through Colombo (4PB). Other general modes are:

o State and Private Radioo State and Private Televisiono Press/Print Mediao Telephones/Pager/ SMS o Police Communicationo Tele-printero Telefaxo Internet SLMD website ( h t tp://www.me t eo.gov.l k)o Through warning towers of Disaster Management Centre

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ANNEX II-I-1

Tropical cyclone warnings in Thailand

Organization

Tropical cyclone and severe weather warnings and advisories in Thailand are provided by the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), Thailand, from the Weather Forecast Bureau, TMD Headquarters at Bangkok to the government agencies concerned, specific users, high seas and general public throughout the country.

Tracking of Tropical Cyclones

Tracking of tropical cyclones in Thailand is done with the help of conventional surface and upper air observations, ships and buoy observations, radar and satellites observations, model outputs and guidance from the global tropical cyclones warning centers. These are deal with in more details in a separate chapter.

Tropical Cyclones Warning Procedure

System Intensity

Action taken by TMD Dissemination and Modes of Telecommunications

Active low trends to be storm (Less than 27 Knots)

Weather Report will be issued every 6 hours containing information on date and time, weather situation, and weather forecasting.

To high seasBy broadcasting through the Bangkok coastal radio stations (HSA,) for the areas covered by the Gulf of Thailand, west of Southern Thailand, Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea.

(every 3 hours)To coastal stations and ports

By : Telephone, Facsimile, Email, SMS, Social Media (Facebook, Line), Thailand Radios/ and Thailand TVs, TMD Mobile Application, TMD Radio, TMD Website : www.tmd.go.th, http://www.metalarm.tmd.go.th

(every 6 hours)Tropical depression (27-33 Knots)

Comprehensive Warning/Advisory will be issued every 6 hours containing : (i) Issuing number (ii) Date and time(iii) Classification by intensity(iv) Position of the tropical storm(v) Central pressure(vi) Movement the direction and speed

(vii) Wind direction and maximum wind near the centre (viii) Destination from a coastal

point

To high seasBy broadcasting through the Bangkok coastal radio stations (HSA,) for the areas covered by the Gulf of Thailand, west of

Southern Thailand, Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. (every 3 hours)

To coastal stations and portsBy : Telephone, Facsimile, Email, SMS, Social Media (Facebook, Line), Thailand Radios/ and Thailand TVs, TMD Mobile Application, TMD Radio, TMD Website : www.tmd.go.th, http://www.metalarm.tmd.go.th

(every 6 hours)Port warning signals used in Thailand Ports are given in Attachment to Annex II-I.

To government agencies concerned namely : Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Port Authority of Thailand (PAT) Marine Department (MD) National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC) Governors of risk provinces

To specific users (aviation, fishery, etc.), mediaand general public


(every 6 hours)Tropical Cyclones (34 knots

Comprehensive Warning/Advisory will be issued every 3 hours containing :

To high seasBy broadcasting through the Bangkok coastal radio stations (HSA,) for the areas covered by the Gulf of Thailand, west of

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http://www.tmd.go.th/



and more) (i) Issuing number (ii) Date and time(iii) Name of storm(iv) Classification by intensity (v) Position of the tropical storm(vi) Central pressure (vii) Movement the direction and speed

(viii) Wind direction and maximum wind near the centre

(ix) Destination from a coastal point

Southern Thailand, Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. (every 3 hours)

To coastal stations and portsBy : Telephone, Facsimile, Email, SMS, Social Media (Facebook, Line), Thailand Radios/ and Thailand TVs, TMD Mobile Application, TMD Radio, TMD Website : www.tmd.go.th, http://www.metalarm.tmd.go.th

(every 3 hours)Port warning signals used in Thailand Ports are given in

Attachment to Annex II-I.To government agencies concerned namely :

Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Port Authority of Thailand (PAT) Marine Department (MD) National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC) Governors of risk provinces

To specific users (aviation, fishery, etc.), mediaand general public


(every 3 hours)

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Attachment to ANNEX II-B-1

Day Signals* Specifications Night Signals* Remarks

Bangladesh (8.XI.1976)

Signals Meant for Maritime Ports

16a I. Distant Cautionary Signal Number One 3b )

There is a region of squally weather in ) These signals indicatewhich a storm may be forming (well marked ) that ships may below or depression with surface winds up to ) exposed to danger after61 km/h. (33 knots)) ) leaving the harbour

10a II. Distant Warning Signal Number Two 2b )

A storm has formed (cyclonic storm with )surface winds 62-88 kmph. (34-47 knots) )

3a III. Local Cautionary Signal Number Three 5b )

The port is threatened by squally weather ) These signals indicate(cyclonic circulation with surface winds ) that the port itself and40-50 km/h. (22-27 knots)) or squalls due ) the ships in it are inNor'Westers) ) danger

2a IV. Local Warning Signal Number Four 4b )

The port is threatened by a storm, but it )does not appear that the danger is as yet )sufficiently great to justify extreme )measures of precaution (cyclonic circulation )with surface winds 51-61 km/h. (28-33 knots)) )

)

17a V. Danger Signal Number Five 16b )

The port will experience severe weather ) These signals indicate that the port itself and the ship in it and ) that the port itself andin coast to the south of the port (to the ) the ships in it are ineast of the port in the case of Mangla) ) dangercyclonic storm with surface winds )62-88 km/h. (34-47 knots) )

_______________

* The national systems of visual storm warning signals (day signals and night signals) are reproduced in WMO Publication - WMO-No. 9, TD. 4, Volume D, Part D - Visual Storm Warning Signals Annexes II and III respectively.

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Bangladesh - continued

18a VI. Danger Signal Number Six 17b )

The port will experience severe weather )from a storm, of slight or moderate )intensity that is expected to cross the )coast to the north of the port (to the )west of the port in the case of Mangla) )(wind speed same as in Signal No. V) )

19a VII. Danger Signal Number Seven 18b )

The port will experience severe weather )from a storm of slight or moderate intensity )that is expected to cross over or near to )the port (wind speed as in Signal No. V) )

20a VIII. Great Danger Signal Number Eight 19b )

The port will experience severe weather ) These signals indicatefrom a storm of great intensity that is ) that the port itself andexpected to cross the coast to the south ) the ships in it are inof the port (to the east of the port in the ) dangercase of Mangla) (severe cyclonic storm with )surface winds 89-118 km/h. (48-63 knots) )or severe cyclonic storm of hurricane )intensity with winds 119 km/h. (64 knots) )or above) )

21a IX. Great Danger Signal Number Nine 20b )

The port will experience severe weather )from a storm of great intensity that is )expected to cross the coast to the north )of the port (to the east of the port in the )case of Mangla) (wind speed same as in Signal )No. VIII) )

_______________

* See footnote on page 1 of Attachment to Annex II-B

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22a X. Great Danger Signal Number Ten 21b )The port will experience severe weather ) these signals indicatefrom a storm of great intensity that is ) that the port itself andexpected to cross the coast over or near to the ) the ships in it are inport (wind speed same as in Signal No. VIII) ) danger

23a XI. Failure of Communications 7b )Communications with the Meteorological )Warning Centre have broken down and the )local officer considers that there is danger of )bad weather )

Signals Meant for River Ports

24a (I) Cautionary Signal Number One 5b )

Your area is threatened by squally winds of ) these signals are used transient nature (Nor'Wester squalls) of wind ) for the river ports, riverspeed not exceeding 60 km/h. (32 knots). ) and police stations inLook out for further development ) Bangladesh

1a (II) Warning Signal Number Two 7b )

“A storm (of depression intensity, ) these signals areassociated sustained winds not ) used for the rivermore than 61 km/h. (33 knots) or ) ports, river andNor'Wester squall (of wind speed ) police stations in61 km/h. (33 knots) or high is ) Bangladeshlikely to strike you (vessels of )65 feet and under in length are to )seek shelter immediately) . )

2a (III) Danger Signal Number Three 2b )

A storm (of gale force, )associated sustained winds )62-88 km/h. (34-47 knots)) )will soon strike you. All )vessels are to seek shelterimmediately

___________*See footnote on page 1 of Attachment to Annex II-B

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10a (IV) Great Danger Signal Number Four 31b )A violent storm (of whole gale) )force and above, associated )sustained wind speed exceeding )88 km/h. (47 knots)) will soon )strike you. All vessels continue )taking shelter immediately )

In the existing Tropical Cyclone Signal System in Bangladesh, two different types of Signal Numbers, one

for maritime and one for river ports are being used for the same cyclone in the sea and its adjoining river ports.

This often leads to create confusion among the general public and those who are related with disaster

management activities. This confusion has also been observed during the recent cyclone SIDR. Therefore, to

avoid any further confusion, unification and standardization of the signals has been made by the Government of

the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, which is yet to be implemented. Prior to the execution of the new signals,

sufficient awareness needs to be raised for the general public, maritime and river port authorities and for the

disaster management sector. Once this is done and the Government feels that it is appropriate to implement the

new signals, the Panel will be informed accordingly.

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Attachment to Annex II-C1-1

Bulletins issued by India for Indian coast

1. State/Central Govt. Officials/Vital installations / Registered User Cyclone Alert/ Cyclone Warning Bulletin No.

FORMAT:

Date and Time of Issue: (i) Information on cyclone : The cyclonic storm lay over............. Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea Center ...........

km. ........................ (Direction) of ..................... place.

(ii) ForecastFurther intensification:Direction of Movement:Expected landfall area:Expected time of landfall:

(iii) Weather Warning (a) Rainfall .................................. in ............................ Districts (Names)

(b) Gales reaching ...................... in ........................... Districts (Names)

(c) Gale force winds reaching 35 knots in ................... Districts

(d) Tidal waves ............... in coastal areas of .................. Districts (Names)

(e) Sea condition: (f) Damage (As per IMD instruction) ........................... Districts (Names)

(g) Likely impacts as per IMD Monograph on “Damage Potential of Tropical [Depending on Intensity of Storm (T-No)] (a) Fishermen not to venture into open sea. (b) Evacuation of people from low lying areas to safer places/Cyclone Shelters.(c) General public in the threat area advised to be indoors. (d) Rail & road transport to be regulated.

2. Port Warning

FORMAT:

Port Warning No. Date and Time for Issue (i) Information on cyclone: The cyclonic storm lay over Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea near Lat.__/Long. ____ at a distance _______ km. from __________ at ______ IST _____ Estimated Central Pressure _______ hPa. (ii) Forecast :Further intensification:Direction of Movement:Expected Landfall Area :Expected Time of Landfall :

(iii) Advice for hoisting Storm Warning Signals: (iv) Likely impacts and actions: Depending on intensity of the storm as per IMD Monograph on “Damage

Potential of Tropical Cyclones”

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3. Cyclone Warning Bulletin for AIR/Press / Public:

FORMAT:

Cyclone Alert / Warning Bulletin No. ______ issued by _____ at _____ Hrs. IST on _________ (Date) for repeated broadcast at hourly / half hourly intervals. Cyclone Alert / Warning for _______ Districts. Cyclone centred at _____ hrs. IST of ________ (date) about ____________ km. ________ of (direction) _______(Place). Expected to intensify further and move in a _________ direction and cross _______ coast near / between ____________ (Place)________ (day/time). Under its influence heavy to very heavy rain likely cause floods in _______ districts commencing from _________ (time/day). Gales speed reaching ______ kmph causing _______ damage ________in districts commencing from ____________ (Date/Time) Gale force winds reaching 70 kmph likely extend into _________ Districts, causing damage ___________ in ________ districts. Tidal wave of ________ m likely inundate low lying area of _______ Districts at the time of crossing coast. Fishermen advised not to venture out. Public advised to cooperate with the State authorities in disaster management efforts.

4. Fisheries Warning

FORMAT:

Fisheries warning No. ________________ Date and Time of Issue ______________

(i) Information on Cyclone: Cyclonic Storm lay over ________________ Bay of Bengal / Arabian Sea at a distance _______________ km. _______________ from _________ at ______________ time (IST) on _________________ (date) (ii) Forecast: Further intensification Direction of Movement

Expected landfall area Expected time of landfall (iii) Warnings: Wind Sea Condition Tidal Waves (iv) Storm Warning Signals at ports Advice and Action: i) Fishermen not to venture into open seas ii) Fishermen at Sea not to come to the ports (names) _____ in coast.

5. Post Landfall Outlook

FORMAT:

EVEN AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR …………………. HOURS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY AAA UNDER ITS INFLUENCE RAINS AT MOST/MANY PLACES WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS AT ……………………………… LIKELY COMMENCE/CONTINUE IN ………………………… (COASTAL DISTRICTS) FROM …………… (TIME)……………………. (DAY) ……………………… (DATES) CAUSING INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS AAA GALE WINDS/SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING ……………. KMPH LIKELY COMMENCE/CONTINUE IN …………………………………..(COASTAL DISTRICTS) FROM ………(TIME)ON……………………(DAY)…………… (DATE) CAUSING DAMAGES TO ……………………………. (PROPERTY AS INDICATED IN IMD MONOGRAPH ON “DAMAGE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE”) AND …………………… (VEGETATION) AND GENERAL DISRUPTION OF COMMUNICATION AND POWER SUPPLY FOR ……………………………

2. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND …………………….. INTERIOR DISTRICTS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY/VERY HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED WITH GALE WITH SPEEDREACHING …………….

KMPH COMMENCING FROM ……………… (TIME) ON ………………. (DAY) …………………. (DATE) FOR ………….. HRS, CAUSING FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND DAMAGE TO PROPERTY

AS INDICATED IN IMD MONOGRAPH ON “DAMAGE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE” (AS PER IMD INSTRUCTION) PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN INDOORS/IN SAFE PLACES AND COOPERATE WITH STATE

GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT AGENCIES.

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Example: (CYCLONE WARNING FOR INDIAN COAST) issued from Cyclone Warning Division, IMD, New Delhi

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over Central Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast. (Orange Message)

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of 11th October 2013 over west central and adjoining Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.5 0N and longitude 88.00E, about 440 km south-southeast of Paradip, 450 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 448 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12 th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position(Lat. 0N/ Long. 0E)

Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

Category

11-10-2013/1430 16.5/88.0 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/1730 17.0/87.6 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/2330 17.6/86.9 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/0530 18.2/86.2 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/1130 18.6/85.5 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/1730 19.1/84.8 210-220 gusting to 235 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/0530 19.8/84.4 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/1730 20.5/84.0 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression

(A) Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal

(i) Heavy Rainfall: Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over coastal Odisha commencing from 11th October 2013 night. It would continue and extend to interior Odisha from 12 th night. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 11th Oct. night. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from 12th Oct. night.

(ii) Gale wind: Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hrs. It would increase in intensity thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 210-220 kmph along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough to very rough and will become gradually phenomenal on 12 th October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.

(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of around 3.0 m above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.

(v) Action suggested: Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea. Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.

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Attachment to ANNEX II-C2-1

India Port warnings largely used


16a I. Distant Cautionary Signal Number One 3b )

There is a region of squally weather in ) These signals indicatewhich a storm may be forming (well marked ) that ships may below or depression with surface winds up to ) exposed to danger after61 km/h. (33 knots)) ) leaving the harbour

10a II. Distant Warning Signal Number Two 2b )

A storm has formed (cyclonic storm with )surface winds 63-87 km/h. (34-47 knots)) )

3a* III. Local Cautionary Signal Number Three 5b )The port is threatened by squally weather ) These signals indicate(cyclonic circulation with surface winds ) that the port itself and40-50 km/h. (22-27 knots)) or squalls due ) the ships in it are inNor'Westers) ) danger

2a* IV. Local Warning Signal Number Four 4b )The port is threatened by a storm, but it )does not appear that the danger is as yet )sufficiently great to justify extreme )measures of precaution (cyclonic circulation )with surface winds 52-61 km/h. (28-33 knots)) )

17a V. Danger Signal Number Five 16b )The port will experience severe weather ) These signals indicate from a storm of slight or moderate ) that the port itself andintensity that is expected to cross the ) the ships in it are incoast keeping the port to the left of its course ) danger(to the east of the port in the case of Mangla) )(cyclonic storm with surface winds 63-87 km/h. )

(34-47 knots))8a VI. Danger signal number Six

Port will experience severe 17b ) These signals indicateweather from a cyclone expected ) that the port itselfto move keeping the port to the ) and the ships in it areright of its track ) in danger

19a* VII. Danger signal number SevenPort will experience severe weather 18b ) This signal is also hoisted whenfrom a cyclone expected to move over ) a storm is expected to skirtor close to the port ) the coast without (actually)

) crossing it

20a VIII. Great Danger Signal number EightPort will experience severe weather 19b ) These signals indicatefrom a severe cyclone expected to ) that the port itselfmove keeping the port to the left ) and the ships in it areof its track ) in danger

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Attachment to ANNEX II-C2-2

21a IX. Great Danger Signal number Nine

Port will experience severe weather 20b ) These signals indicatefrom a severe cyclone expected to ) that the port itselfmove keeping the port to the right ) and the ships in it areof its track ) in danger

22a* X. Great Danger Signal number TenPort will experience severe weather 21b ) This signal is also hoistedfrom a severe cyclone expected to ) when a storm is expectedmove over or close to the port ) to skirt the coast without

) (actually) crossing it23a* XI. Failure of Communication

Communications with the meteorological 7b )warning centre have broken down, )and the local office considers there )is a danger of bad weather )

Brief SystemIn the brief system only one of the five signals marked by an asterisk of the general system is hoisted, and the Port Officers are kept informed of the prospects of local bad weather associated with any disturbance in the sea, for the general information of shipping.

Extended System

Special section signals, in addition to those of the general system, are exhibited at certain ports in the Bay of Bengal belonging to the extended system.

If the port itself is threatened, the appropriate local signals of the general system are hoisted. But, if there is an area of squally weather or a storm that does not threaten the port, the distant cautionary or distant warning signal of the general system is hoisted, and one or more of the locality signals (described in the next paragraph) are hoisted under the distant signals, to indicate the position of the disturbance in the Bay.

The following shapes, when hung below a distant cautionary or warning signal, become locality signals, indicating the six divisions into which the Bay of Bengal has been divided for this purpose) . If, however, the centre of the storm is near the boundary of a division, the hoisting of two locality signals is requested, the first indicating the division in which the centre is thought to be situated and the second the division nearest to the first.

In the event of a storm centre being near the corner where three divisions meet, the hoisting of three locality signals is requested, the first indicating the division in which the storm is estimated to be centred, the second the nearest adjoining division, and the third the remaining division.

Signal 3a 10a 24a 16a 2a 23aSection I II III IV V VI


1) The divisions are as indicated on the chart given on page II A6. Thus, if there is squally weather in Section I of the Bay, the signal 25a would be hoisted at the various ports, and if a storm has formed in Section II, the signal 11a would be hoisted at all ports which were not directly threatened. As already stated, the ports directly threatened would hoist one or other of the local signals. The Meteorological Department endeavours to keep the number of locality signals on each hoist as small as possible, and generally the number of only that section in which the centre of the storm is situated is given in the Warning bulletin.

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Attachment to ANNEX II-E-1


Myanmar (21.II.1977)General System

16a There is a region of squally weather 3b Distant cautionaryin which a storm may be forming signal

10a A storm has formed 2b Distant warningsignal

3a The port is threatened by squally 5b* Local cautionaryweather signal

2a* The port is threatened by a storm, 4b* Local warning signal.but it does not appear that the The existence of a storm can oftendanger is as yet sufficiently great be determined before its directionto justify extreme measures of of motion can be fixed. In thisprecaution case all those ports which the storm

could possibly strike are warned by this signal

17a The port will experience severe weather 16b Local danger signalfrom a storm, of slight or moderateintensity, that is expected to crossthe coast to the south of the port (or to the east in the case of Yangon,Pathein and Diamond Island)

18a The port will experience severe weather 17b Local danger signalfrom a storm, of slight or moderateintensity, that is expected to crossthe coast to the north of the port (orto the west in the case of Yangon andMoulmein)

19a* The port will experience severe weather 18b* Local danger signalfrom a storm, of slight or moderateintensity, that is expected to crossover or near to the port

20a The port will experience severe weather 19b Local great dangerfrom a storm of great intensity that is signalexpected to cross the coast to thesouth of the port (or to the east in thecase of Yangon, Pathein and DiamondIsland)

_____________* See footnote on page 1 of Attachment to Annex II-B

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Myanmar - continued

21a The port will experience severe weather 20b Local greatfrom a storm of great intensity that danger signalis expected to cross the coast to thenorth of the port (or to the west inthe case of Yangon and Moulmein)

22a* The port will experience severe weather 21b* Local greatfrom a storm of great intensity that is danger signalexpected to cross over or near to theport

23a* Communications with the meteorological 7b* Local failure ofwarning centre have broken down, and communicationsthe local officer considers that there signalis a danger of bad weather

Brief System

In the brief system only one of the five signals marked by an asterisk of the general system is hoisted, and the Port Officers are kept informed of the prospects of local bad weather associated with any disturbance in the sea, for the general information of shipping.

Extended System

Special signals, in addition to those of the general system, are exhibited at certain ports in the Bay of Bengal belonging to the extended system.

If the port itself is threatened, the appropriate local signals of the general system are hoisted. But, if there is an area of squally weather or a storm that does not threaten the port, the distant cautionary or distant warning signal of the general system is hoisted, and one or more of the locality signals (described in the next paragraph) are hoisted under the distant signals, to indicate the position of the disturbance in the Bay.

The following shapes, when hung below a distant cautionary or warning signal, become locality signals, indicating the six divisions into which the Bay of Bengal has been divided for this purpose 1) . If, however, thecentre of the storm is near the boundary of a division, the hoisting of two locality signals is requested, the first indicating the division in which the centre is thought to be situated and the second the division nearest to the first.

In the event of a storm centre being near the corner where three divisions meet, the hoisting of three locality signals is requested, the first indicating the division in which the storm is estimated to be centred, the second

the nearest adjoining division, and the third the remaining division.

Signal 3a 10a 24a 16a 2a 23aSection I II III IV V VI

____________* See footnote on page 1 of Attachment to Annex II-B

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1) The divisions are as indicated on the chart given on page 26 Thus, if there is squally weather in Section I of the Bay, the signal 25a would be hoisted at the various ports, and if a storm has formed in Section II, the signal 11a would be hoisted at all ports which were not directly threatened. As already stated, the ports directly threatened would hoist one or other of the local signals. The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology endeavours to keep the number of locality signals on each hoist as small as possible, and generally the number of only that section in which the centre of the storm is situated is given in the Warning bulletin.

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Attachment to ANNEX II-G-1


Pakistan - (10.VI.1984) Port warnings largely used

16a There is a region of squally 3b )weather in which a storm may )be forming )

) These signals) indicate that) ships may be) exposed to danger) after leaving the) harbour

10a A storm has formed 2b )

3a Port is threatened by squally 5b ) These signalsweather ) indicate that the

) port itself and) the ships in it) are in danger

2a Port is threatened by a storm, 4b )but it does not appear that )danger justifies extreme )measures of precaution )

17a Severe weather from a storm of 16b )slight or moderate intensity, )expected to cross the coast )to south or east of port )

18a Severe weather from a storm of 17b ) These signalsslight or moderate intensity, ) indicate that theexpected to cross the coast to ) port itself andnorth or west of port ) the ships in it

) are in danger

19a Severe weather from a storm of 18b )slight or moderate intensity, )expected to cross over or near )to the port )

20a Severe weather from a storm of 19b )great intensity, expected to )cross the coast to south or )east of port )

___________See footnote on page 1 of Attachment to Annex II-B

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Attachment to ANNEX II-G-2


Pakistan - continued

21a Severe weather from a storm of 20b )great intensity, expected to ) These signalscross the coast to north or ) indicate that thewest of port ) port itself and

) the ships in it) are in danger

22a Severe weather from a storm of 21b )great intensity, expected to )cross over or near to the port )

23a Communications with the meteorological -- 7b ) These signalswarning centre have ) indicate that thebroken down, and the local ) port itself andoffice considers there is a ) the ships in itdanger of bad weather ) are in danger

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Attachment to ANNEX II-H-1

Sri Lanka (20.II.1978)

53a Hoisted at the Colombo Pilot Station

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Attachment to ANNEX II-I-1

Thailand (11.IV.1984)


Signals indicating the intensity of storms

35a Tropical depression or storm with wind 1. Signals indicating the occurrencespeeds near centre not exceeding 33 knots of storms in the Gulf of Thailand and

adjacent seas to be displayed at Port Area (Bangkok) and at Bangkok Harbour Limit I (Pong Pachjamit Fort, Pagklongsarn, Dhonburi)

36a Tropical storm or storm with windspeeds near centre from 34 knots andover but not exceeding 63 knots

56a Typhoon or cyclone or storm with wind 2 Signals indicating the intensity speeds near centre 64 knots or more and locality of storms will be hoisted on

the same yard-arm with the pennant indicating the intensity and the flag indicating the locality of the storm. The flag is always hoisted below the pennant

__________________


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Attachment to ANNEX II-H-2


Thailand - continued

Signals indicating the locality of storms

37a Area 1 : Gulf of Thailand east coast to Lat. 5oN and Long. 105oE

38a Area 2 : Gulf of Thailand west coast to Lat. 5oN

43a Area 3: Andaman Sea bounded by west coast of southern Myanmar, west coast of southern Thailand, Long. 97oE, Lat. 5oN and Lat. 14oN

51a Area 4 : South China Sea bounded by southern Viet Nam coast, Lat. 12oN, Lat. 5oN, Long. 105oE and Long. 112oE

Note: In normal weather conditions (no tropical depression, storm or typhoon) the white pennant with red circle (52a) will be displayed at the upper yard-arm at Bangkok Harbour Limit I (Pong Pachjamit Fort, Pagklongsarn, Dhonburi).

_____________* See footnote on page 1 of Attachment to Annex II-B

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III-1C H A P T E R III

THE OBSERVING SYSTEM AND OBSERVING PROGRAMME

3.1 Networks of surface and upper air stations

3.1.1 Observations from basic network

The list of implemented regional basic synoptic networks of surface and upper air stations of the Panel countries is given in Table III-1. The network of stations adopted for regional exchange by the World Weather Watch is considered adequate for routine tracking of weather systems. However, in the cyclone season, particularly when a tropical depression or storm exists in the region, special efforts will be made by the national meteorological services to improve the collection and distribution of surface synoptic reports from the coastal stations.

3.1.2 Special observations from the WWW network

National meteorological services will endeavor to arrange for additional observations in areas coming within the circulation of a tropical cyclone. These stations will make round the clock three hourly or hourly observations when the system is of tropical storm intensity and close to the coast and the observations will be passed on real time to the Panel countries.

3.1.3 Special observations from stations other than those of the regional basic synoptic network

National Meteorological Services (NMS) have established a large number of meteorological observing stations, in addition to those in the regional basic synoptic network, observations from which are received by the NMS. When there is a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or in the Arabian Sea, observations from these stations, particularly from coastal stations, will be exchanged on real time basis on priority. If the observations are not received during a tropical cyclone situation a request for them could be sent to the NMS concerned. A list of these stations is given in Table III-2 & III-3.

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III-2TABLE III-1: List of implemented regional

basic synoptic network stations

Name of Station Surface Radiowind Radiosonde

1 2 3 4 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

41240 KHASAB X X X X X X 242 DIBA* X X X X X X X X 244 BURAIMI X X X X X X X X 246 SOHAR MAJIS X X X X X X X X 253 RUSTAQ X X X X X X X X 254 SAIQ . X X X X 255 NIZWA* X X X 256 SEEB INT. AIRPORT X X X X X X X X X 257 SAMAIL X X X X X X X X 258 MINA SULTAN QABOOS X X X X X X X X 262 FAHUD X X X X X X X X 263 BAHLA X X X X X X X X 264 ADAM X X X X X X X X 265 IBRA X X X X X X X X 267 QALHAT X X X X X X X X 268 SUR X X X X X X X X 275 QARN ALAM X X X X X X X X 288 MASIRAH X X X X X X X X 304 MARMUL X X X X X X X X 312 MINA SALALAH X X X X X X X X 314 THUMRAIT X X X X X X X X 315 QAIROON HAIRITI X X X X X X X X 316 SALALAH X X X X X X X X X 515 DROSH X X X X X X X X 530 PESHAWAR X X X X X X X X X X X X X 560 PARACHINAR X X X X X X X X 571 ISLAMABAD AIRPORT X X X X X X X X 594 SARGODHA X X X X X X X X X X X X X 598 JHELUM X X X X X X X X X X X X 620 ZHOB X X X X X X X X 624 DERA ISMAIL KHAN X X X X X X X X X X X X 641 LAHORE CITY X X X X X X X X X X X X 660 QUETTA AIRPORT X X X X X X X X 675 MULTAN X X X X X X X X X X X X X 685 BAR KHAN X X X X X X X X X X X 710 NOKKUNDI X X X X X X X X 712 DAL BANDIN X X X X X X X X X X X X 715 JACOBABAD X X X X X X X X X X X X 718 KHANPUR X X X X X X X X 739 PANJGUR X X X X X X X X X 744 KHUZDAR X X X X X X X X X X X 749 NAWABSHAH X X X X X X X X X X X 756 JIWANI X X X X X X X X X X X 757 GWADAR X X X X X X X X 759 PASNI X X X X X X X X X X X (Pilot winds) 764 HYDERABAD X X X X X X X X X X X X 768 CHHOR X X X X X X X X X X X X 780 KARACHI AIRPORT X X X X X X X X X X X X X* During the period of tropical cyclone

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III-3

NAME OF STATION SURFACE RADIOWIND RADIOSONDE

1 2 3 400 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

41859 RANGPUR X X X X X X X X X X X X41883 BOGRA X X X X X X X X X X X X X41891 SYLHET X X X X X X X X X X X X X41907 ISHURTI X X X X X X X X X X X X41923 DHAKA X X X X X X X X X X X X X X41936 JESSERE X X X X X X X X X X X X41943 FENI X X X X X X X X X X X X41950 BARISAL X X X X X X X X X X X X41978 CHITTAGONG(PATENGA)

X X X X X X X X

41977 CHITTAGONG(AMBAGAN)

. . . . . . . . X X X X X

41992 COX'S BAZAR X X X X X X X X X X X X41858 SAYEDPUR X X X X X X X X41863 DINAJPUR X X X X X X X X41886 MYMENSINGH X X X X X X X X41895 RAJSHAHI X X X X X X X X41909 TANGAIL X X X X X X X X41915 SRIMANGAL X X X X X X X X41962 CHUADANGA X X X X X X X X41929 FARIDPUR X X X X X X X X41933 COMILLA X X X X X X X X41939 MADARIPUR X X X X X X X X41941 CHANDPUR X X X X X X X X41946 SATKHIRA X X X X X X X X41947 KHULNA X X X X X X X X41951 BHOLA X X X X X X X X41953 M.COURT X X X X X X X X41958 MANGLA X X X X X X X X41960 PATUAKHALI X X X X X X X X41963 HATIYA X X X X X X X X41964 SANDWIP X X X X X X X X41965 SITAKUNDU X X X X X X X X41966 RANGAMATI X X X X X X X X41984 KHEPUPARA X X X X X X X X41989 KUTUBDIYA X X X X X X X X41998 TEKNAF X X X X X X X X41851 DIMLA X X X X X41856 RAJARHAT X X X X X41881 BADOLGACHI X X X X X41888 NETROKONA X X X X X41897 TARASH X X X X X41927 KUMARKHALI X X X X X41938 GOPALGONJ X X X X X41850 TETULIA X X X X X

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III-4

Name of station Surface Radiowind Radiosonde1 2 3 4

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

42027 SRINAGAR X X X X X X X X X X X X X42071 AMRITSAR X X X X X X X X X X42101 PATIALA X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42111 DEHRADUN X X X X X X X X42131 HISSAR X X X X X X X X42165 BIKANER X X X X X X X X42182 NEW DELHI X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42189 BAREILLY X X X X X X X X42260 AGRA X X X X X X X X 42309 NORTH LAKHIMPUR X X X X X42314 DIBRUGARH/MOHANBARI X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 42328 JAISALMER X X X X X X X X42339 JODHPUR X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 42348 JAIPUR/SANGANER X X X X X X X X X X 42361 GWALIOR X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42369 LUCKNOW/AMAUSI X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42379 GORAKHPUR X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42397 SILIGURI X X X X X X X X42410 GUWAHATI X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42415 TEZPUR X X X X X X X X42452 KOTA AERODROME X X X X X X X X42475 ALLAHABAD/ BAMHRAULI X X X X X X X X42492 PATNA X X X X X X X X X X42559 GUNA X X X X X X X X 42571 SATNA X X X X X X X X42587 DALTONGANJ X X X X 42591 GAYA X X X X X X X X X X X42623 IMPHAL TULIHAL X X X X X X X X X X X X42634 BHUJ-RUDRAMATA X X X X X X X X42779 PENDRA X X X X X X X X42798 JAMSHEDPUR X X X X X X X X X X42809 KOLKATA / DUMDUM X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42840 SURAT X X X X X X X X42867 NAGPUR /SONEGAON X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42875 RAIPUR X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42886 JHARSUGUDA X X X X X X X X X 42895 BALASORE X X X X X X X X42909 VERAVAL X X X X X X X X42921 NASIK CITY X X X X X X X X42933 AKOLA X X X X X X X X42971 BHUBANESWAR X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42977 SANDHEADS X X

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III-5

Name of Station Surface Radiowind Radiosonde1 2 3 4

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

43003 MUMBAI (SANTACRUZ) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X43014 AURANGABAD X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

CHIKALTHANA 43041 JAGDALPUR X X X X X X X X X X X X X X43063 PUNE X X X X X X X X43086 RAMGUNDAM X X X X X X X X43110 RATNAGIRI X X X X X X X X43117 SHOLAPUR X X X X X X X X 43128 HYDERABAD AIRPORT X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 43150 VISHAKHAPATNAM/ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

WALTAIR43185 MACHILIPATNAM X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

(FRANCHPET)43189 KAKINADA X X X X X X X X43192 GOA/PANJIM X X X X X X X X X X X X X X43198 BELGAUM/SAMBRE X X X X X X X X43201 GADAG X X X X X X X X43213 KURNOOL X X X X X X X X43226 HONAVAR X X X X X X X X43233 CHITRADURGA X X X X X X X X43237 ANANTAPUR X X X X X X X X43245 NELLORE X X X X X X X X43279 CHENNAI/MEENAMBAKKAM X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 43284 MANGALORE/BAJPE X X X X X X X X43285 MANGALORE/PANAMBUR X X X X X X43295 BANGALORE X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42830 PORBANDAR X X X X X X X X43049 GOPALPUR X X X X X X X X X X X43221 ONGOLE X X X X X X X X43348 ADIRAMPATTINAM X X

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III-6


1 2 3 400 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

43311 AMINI DIVI X X X X X X X X X X X X X X43314 KOZHIKODE X X X X X X X X43321 COIMBATORE/PEELAMEDU X X X X X X X X43329 CUDDALORE X X X X X X X X43333 PORT BLAIR X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 43344 TIRUCHIRAPALLI X X X X X X X X43346 KARAIKAL X X X X X X X X X X X X X X43353 KOCHI WILLINGTON X X X X X X X X X X43369 MINICOY X X X X X X X X X X X X X X43371 THIRUVANANTHAPURAM X X X X X X X X X X X X X X43418 TRINCOMALEE X X X X X X X X X X X43421 ANURADHAPURA X X X X X X X X43424 PUTTALAM X X X X X X X X43436 BATTICALOA X X X X X X X X43450 KATUNAYAKE X X X X X X X X43466 COLOMBO X X X X X X X X X X X43473 NUWARA ELIYA X X X X X X X X43486 RATNAPURA X X X X X X X X43495 GALLE X X X X X X X X43497 HAMBANTOTA X X X X X X X X X X X43533 HANIMADHOO X X X X X X X X43555 MALE X X X X X X X X43577 KADHDHOO X X X X X X X X43588 KADEHDHOO X X X X X X X X43599 GAN X X X X X X X X X48001 PUTAO X X X X X48004 HKAMTI X X X X X48008 MYITKYINA X X X X X X48010 HOMALIN X X X X X X48017 PINLEBU X X X X X48018 KATHA X X X X X X48019 BHAMO X X X X X48020 MAWLAIK X X X X X48024 KALEMYO X X X X X48025 KALEWA X X X X X X48030 HAKHA X X X X X48031 FALAM X X X X X48033 SHWEBO X X X X X48034 MOGOKE X X X X X48035 LASHIO X X X X X48036 GANGAW X X X X X48037 MONYWA X X X X X 48039 SAGAING X X X X X48040 HSIPAW X X X X X48042 MANDALAY X X X X X X48043 PYINOOLWIN X X X X X48045 MINDAT X X X X X48047 MYINGYAN X X - - X48048 NYUNG-U X X X X X48051 KYAUKTAW X X X X X48052 CHAUK X X X X X48053 MEIKTILA X X X X X X48055 NAMSAM X X X X X

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III-7


1 2 3 400 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

48057 TAUNGGYI X X X X X48058 LOILEM X X X X X48060 KENGTUNG X X X X X X48062 SITTWE X X X X X X48064 MINBU X X X X X48065 MAGWAY X X X X X 48067 YAMETHIN X X X X X48068 PINLAUNG X X X X X48070 MONGHSAT X X X X X48071 KYAUKPYU X X X X X X48072 MANAUNG X X X X X 48074 PYINMANA X X X X X 48075 LOIKAW X X X X X 48077 PROME X X X X X48078 TOUNGOO X X X X X 48080 SANDOWAY X X X X X X48085 GWA X X X X X48087 HINTHADA X X X X X48088 THARWADY X X X X X48089 SHWEGYIN X X X X X48092 HMAWBI X X X X X48093 BAGO X X X X X X48094 PATHEIN X X X X X X48095 MAUBIN X X X X X48096 MINGALADON X X X X X X48097 YANGON X X X X X X X X48098 THAON X X X X X48099 HPAAN X X X X X X48101 PYAPON X X X X X48103 MAWLAMYINE X X X X X 48107 YE X X X X X48108 DAWEI X X X X X X48109 COCO ISLAND X X X X X X48110 MERGUI X X X X X X48112 KAWTHOUNG X X X X X X48300 MAE HONG SON X X X X X X X X48303 CHIANG RAI X X X X X X X X48327 CHIANG MAI X X X X X X X X X X X X48328 LAMPANG X X X X X X X X48330 PHRAE X X X X X X X X48331 NAN X X X X X X X X48351 UTTARADIT X X X X X X X X48353 LOEI X X X X X X X X48354 UDON THANI X X X X X X X X48356 SAKON NAKHON X X X X X X X X48375 MAE SOT X X X X X X X X48376 TAK X X X X X X X X48377 BHUMIBOL DAM X X X X X X X X48378 PHITSANULOK X X X X X X X X48379 PHETCHABUN X X X X X X X X48381 KHON KAEN X X X X X X X X48400 NAKHON SAWAN X X X X X X X X48407 UBON RATCHATHANI X X X X X X X X X X X48431 NAKHON RATCHASIMA X X X X X X X X

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III-8


1 2 3 400 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

48432 SURIN X X X X X X X X48453 BANGKOK X X X X X X X X X X X X48456 DON MUANG X X X X X X X X48462 ARANYAPRATHET X X X X X X X X48475 HUA HIN X X X X X X X X48477 SATTAHIP X X X X X X X X48480 CHANTHABURI X X X X X X X X X X48500 PRACHUAP KHIRIKHAN X X X X X X X X X X48517 CHUMPHON X X X X X X X X48532 RANONG X X X X X X X X48551 SURAT THANI X X X X X X X X X X X X48565 PHUKET AIRPORT X X X X X X X X X48567 TRANG X X X X X X X X48568 SONGKHLA X X X X X X X X X X X48569 HAT YAI X X X X X X X X48583 NARATHIWAT X X X X X X X X

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III-9

TABLE III-2: List of stations other than those in theWWW network from which special observations are

available in cyclone situations

Country: Bangladesh


1 2 3 400 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12

41858 SAYEDPUR X X X X X X X X 41859 RANGPUR X X X X X X X X X X X X 41863 DINAJPUR X X X X X X X X41883 BOGRA X X X X X X X X X X X X X41886 MYMENSINGH X X X X X X X X41891 SYLHET X X X X X X X X X X X X41895 RAJSHAHI X X X X X X X41909 TANGAIL X X X X X X X41907 ISHURDI X X X X X X X X X X X X41915 SRIMONGAL X X X X X X X X41923 DHAKA X X X X X X X X X X X X X41926 CHUADANGA X X X X X X X X41929 FARIDPUR X X X X X X X X41933 COMILLA X X X X X X X41936 JESSORE X X X X X X X X X X X X 41939 MADARIPUR X X X X X X X X41941 CHANDPUR X X X X X X X X41943 FENI X X X X X X X X X X X X41946 SATKHIRA X X X X X X X X41947 KHULNA X X X X X X X X41950 BARISAL X X X X X X X X X X X X41951 BHOLA X X X X X X X X41953 MAIJDI COURT X X X X X X X X41958 MONGLA X X X X X X X X41960 PATUAKHALI X X X X X X X X41963 HATIYA X X X X X X X X41964 SANDWIP X X X X X X X X41965 SITAKUNDA X X X X X X X X41966 RANGAMATI X X X X X X X X41977 CHITTAGONG . . . . . . . X X X X X

(AMBAGAN)41978 CHITTAGONG X X X X X X X X

(PATENGA)41984 KHEPUPARA X X X X X X X X41989 KUTUBDIA X X X X X X X X41992 COX'S BAZAR X X X X X X X X X X X X41998 TEKNAF X X X X X X X X43413 MANNAR X X X X X X X43475 POTTUVIL X X X X X X X

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III-10

TABLE III-3Buoys over north India Ocean

Buoy’s ID Surface Radiowind Radiosonde

1 2 3 4

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 18 00 12Indian Buoys

AD02 (ARB) X X X X X XAD03 (ARB) X X X X X X XAD04 (ARB) X X X X X X XAD05 (ARB) X X X X X X X XCB02 (ARB) X X X X X XCB03 (ARB) X X X X X XSW02 (ARB) X X X X X XBD02 (BOB) X X X X X X X XBD07 (BOB) X X X X X X X XBD08 (BOB) X X X X X X X XBD10 (BOB) X X X X X X XBD11 (BOB) X X X X X X X XBD12 (BOB) X X X X X X XBD13 (BOB) X X X X X XCB01 (BOB) X X X X X X

Oman Buoys

23053 Buoy (MINA SALALAH)1 X X X X X X X X

1 Temporarily discontinued

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III-11

3.1.4 Upper air stations

Additional upper wind observations will be made as appropriate whenever a tropical cyclone is centered within 500 nautical miles of the station. The minimum required is two observations per day, but for a better understanding of the ambient wind field three or even four flights on some days will be made when possible. All these additional upper air observations will be distributed among the Panel countries.

3.2 Observations from mobile ships

Efforts will be made to obtain the maximum number of ships' observations from the cyclone field by the NMSs and to pass on these observations to RSMC New Delhi. Whenever there is a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal or in the Arabian Sea, additional ships' reports at frequent intervals will be requested by the storm warning centre/meteorological office concerned.

3.3 Aircraft reports

All reports from aircraft in flight in the area will be passed on real time to RSMC, New Delhi and to other Panel countries. In case the national meteorological service collecting the report deems it to be of interest in the analysis or forecasting of a tropical cyclone situation, it will be prefixed with an agreed high priority symbol.

3.4 Radar observations

As long as a tropical cyclone remains within range of one of the cyclone detection radars in the region, the meteorological centre concerned will keep the system under continuous surveillance and will transmit the radar observations through GTS to RSMC New Delhi and other Panel countries. These reports will be made in accordance with a reestablished schedule, preferably on a regular three hourly basis.

The report will be in the RADOB code (FM20VRADOB) or the code given in Annex IIIA and will be transmitted twice to ensure reception of the complete message. The radar imageries will be exchanged through website or e-mail.

In case the report is in plain language, the full range of information available at the radar station will be given. The message will therefore include, where available, the confirmation of the determination of the centre; the shape, definition, size and character tendency of the eye, the distance between the end of the outermost band and the centre of the cyclone and the direction and speed of movement with a statement of the interval of time over which the movement was calculated.

A list of the cyclone detection radar stations in the Panel area is given in Table III-4.

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TABLE III-4WEATHER RADAR STATIONS KEEPING WATCH

OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND THE BAY OF BENGALCountry Station N E Type Op. since Bangladesh 41992 Cox's Bazar 21o20' 92o17' Doppler 1970

41984 Khepupara 21o59' 90o14' Doppler 198241923 Dhaka 23o46' 90o23' 10 cm 197041859 Rangpur 25o44' 89o14' 10 cm 199941XXX 24o29' 91o46' Doppler 2010

India 42807 Kolkata 22o34' 88o21' 10 cm / 1973 DWR 200242976 Paradip 20o16' 86o39' 10 cm 197343149 Visakhapatnam 17o45' 83o21' 10 cm 1970

DWR 200643185 Machilipatnam 16o11' 81o09' 10 cm/ 1981

DWR 2004-- Sriharikota 13o40' 80o14' DWR 2004 43278 Chennai 12o59' 80o15' 10 cm 1973 DWR 2002 43346 Karaikal 10o54' 79o50' 10 cm 1989

DWR 201643353 Kochi 09o56' 76o16' 10 cm 1987

DWR 201643192 Goa 15o29' 73o49' 10 cm 2002

DWR 201643057 Mumbai 18o54' 72o49' 10 cm 1989

DWR 201642634 Bhuj 23o15' 69o48' 10 cm 1987

DWR 2016

Maldives 43555 Male 04o09' 73o11' 10 cm(DWR) 2008

Myanmar 48071 Kyaukpyu 19o23' 93o33' 10 cm 1979(Not operational)

Pakistan 41780 Karachi 24o54' 67o08' 5.6 cm 1991

Thailand 48455 Bangkok 13o 55' 100o36' 10 cm(DWR) 199248475 Hau Hin 12o35' 99o57' 10 cm(DWR) 199548517 Chumphon 10o29' 99o11' 5.6 cm(DWR) 200848551 Surat Thani 09o08' 99o9’ 10 cm (DWR) 199348565 Phuket 08o08' 98o19' 5.6 cm(DWR) 200648569 HAT Yai 06o56' 100o23’ 5.6 cm(DWR) 200448563 Krabi 08o06' 98o58’ 5.6 cm(DWR) 2006

48568 Songkhla 07o26' 100o27’ 5.6 cm(DWR) 2011 48583 Narathiwat 06o25' 101o45’ 5.6 cm(DWR) 2014

(Dual.Pol.)

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ANNEX III-A-1

CODE FOR REPORTING RADAR OBSERVATIONS RELATING TO CYCLONIC DISTURBANCES

Part "A" (to be reported when centre of the storm can be determined).

CYREP FFAA STATION IIiii YYGGg 4R wLaLaLa 1LoLoLoLo EYE or SPIRAL6CSDT Pdsdsfsfs

Explanatory Notes

CYREP FFAA : Radar Report giving centre of a cycloneSTATION : Name of station in plain languageIiiii : Station Index NumberYY : UTC dateGGg : Time of observation in hours and tens of minutes UTC4 : Indicator figure1 : Quadrant of globe '1' for our area as per WMO definitionRw : Wavelength of radar

3 for 3 cm radar, 5 for 5.6 cm radar, 8 for 10 cm radarLaLaLa : Latitude In tenths of a degree.

Tenths are obtained by dividing the number of minutes

LoLoLoLo : Longitude by six and discarding the remainder.EYE or : Either the word "EYE" or the word "SPIRAL" will be reported,SPIRAL but not both.The word "EYE" will be reported if a partial or complete eye is seen by the radar.

If a double walled eye is seen "DOUBLE EYE" will bereported instead of "EYE".If the storm centre is estimated using only spiral bands theword "SPIRAL" will be reported.

6 : Indicator figure to show that eye characteristics and/or confidence of fix follow.C : Confidence of fix (Vide Table 1).S : Shape of eye and length of arc of eyewall seen (Vide Table 2).D : Diameter or length of major axis of the eye (Vide Table 3).T : Tendency of the eye determined over the period since the last observation (Vide Table 4).

NOTE: S, D and T will be reported as solidus (/) if the storm centre is fixed from spiral bands only.P: Period over which the movement of the storm centre has been determined (Vide Table 5).dsds: Direction in tens of degree towards which the storm centre is moving.fsfs: Speed of movement of storm centre in kilometres per hour.

If movement over a period of 3 hours or more cannot be estimated, the group pdsdsfsfs will be dropped.

NOTE: The radar meteorologist may at his discretion add any other operationally useful information not covered above, in plain language at the end of Part A of the message.

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TABLE 1Confidence of Fix (C)

Code Figure Category Radar echo pattern Likely accuracy about 1. Very poor Spiral bands, ill defined or too few or too short 100 km 2. Poor Centre estimated from well defined spiral 50 km

bands --------- eye not visible 3. Fair Partial eye wall seen 30 km 4. Good Closed or nearly closed eye whose geometric 10 km

centres can be located with confidence

NOTE: The accuracy and criteria as given above are only illustrative and not definitive.

TABLE 2

Shape of eye and length of arc of eyewall seen (S)Code Figure Length of arc Shape 0 ------- Ill-defined 1 Less than1800 Shape other than 2 More than 1800 circular or elliptical 3 Closed

4 Less than 1800 5 More than 1800 Elliptical 6 Closed

7 Less than 1800 8 More than 1800 Circular 9 Closed

TABLE 3

D- Diameter or length of major axis of the eye of the tropical cyclone Code Figure Code Figure

0 less than 10 km 6 60 to 69 km1 10 to 19 km 7 70 to 79 km2 20 to 29 km 8 80 to 89 km3 30 to 39 km 9 90 km and greater4 40 to 49 km / undetermined5 50 to 59 km

TABLE 4

T- Tendency of the eye, determined over the period since the last observationCode Figure

0 Eye has first become visible since the last observation.1 No significant change in the characteristics or size of the eye.2 Eye has become smaller with no other significant change in characteristics.3 Eye has become larger with no other significant change in characteristics.4 Eye has become less distinct with no significant change in size.5 Eye has become less distinct and decreased in size.6 Eye has become less distinct and increased in size.7 Eye has become more distinct with no significant change in size.8 Eye has become more distinct and decreased in size.9 Eye has become more distinct and increased in size./ Change in character and size of eye cannot be determined.

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TABLE 5P- Period over which the movement of the storm centre has been determined

Code Figure Period7 During the preceding 3 hours8 During the preceding 6 hours9 During a period of more than 6 hours

(to be reported whenever any radar echo is seen)RAREP FFBB IIiii YYGGg CHARACTER (b1b1b1/r1r1r1 --------------------bnbnbn/rnrnrn) INTENSITY TENDENCY dsdsfsfs ALTD (bbb/HtHt/rrr)NOTE: 1. Part B will normally be reported only at synoptic hours. In the case of any break in observations

or rapid development, additional Part B messages may be transmitted as necessary.2. Part A messages are to be prepared and transmitted as close to the observation time as possible. Part B can be transmitted separately, after Part A has been sent. When Part A andPart B are transmitted together, the code groups RAREP, IIiii, YYGGg need not be included inPart B.

Character:EYE : An echo identified definitely as the eye wall of a tropical cyclone.SPRL BND : A continuous or broken curved line of echoes recognizable as a spiral band associated with a

cyclonic system.

SQL LN : This pattern should normally have a length to width ratio of about 10 to 1 and length about 60 km or more.

BRKN LN : A broken line of echoes.

SLD : An area fully covered with echoes.

BRKN : An area 4/8 to 7/8 covered with echoes.

SCT : An area 1/8 to 4/8 covered with echoes.

WDLY SCT : An area less than 1/8 covered with echoes.

ISLTD : Isolated solid mass of echo.

ECHO ALDFT : Echo seen only at elevations higher than half the beam width.

bbb : Azimuth in three digits (degrees) of points on the periphery of an echo area.

rrr : Range (three digits) in units of kilometers.

NOTE:(1) The groups within the brackets ( ) may be reported as many times as necessary.

(2) In the case of line echoes, in spiral bands and eye wall, as many bbb/rrr points along the line as necessary may be given to define the shape of the line. The points should preferably be given along the line in the anticlockwise direction.

(3) In the case of areas, as many bbb/rrr points as necessary to define the shape may preferably be given in the anticlockwise order starting from the northernmost point. The first point should be repeated as the last point to indicate that it is a closed area.

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(4) In any one RAREP message, the character of echoes will be reported in the order given in the group description above.

(5) If an echo system with a distinct characteristic is partly or wholly embedded in another, the two systems should be reported in separate groups. For example, a SPRL BND, or BRKNLN (which may be distinguished as such by using the attenuator or isoecho system) embedded in a larger area of echoes will be reported as SPRL BND or BRKN LN in addition to the area reported separately.

(6) The number of features or groups should be as few as possible, and should be just sufficientto convey an overall picture of the system.

Intensity:

For radars having facility for quantitative measurementCode dBZ Approximate rainfall rate mm/hr Other radarsWK 23 to 32 less than 4 QualitativelyMDT 33 to 42 4 to 15 determined as inSTG 43 to 52 16 to 63 Weather RadarVRY STG 53 or more 64 and above Manual

NOTE: (1) The intensity of the strongest echo in the group is to be reported.(2) The rainfall rates indicated are based on the relationship Z = 200R 1.6 and may be taken only as

a rough guide.(3) Intensity is to be reported only of echoes within 200 km range

Tendency:INCG : IncreasingDCG : DecreasingNO CHG : No change

In view of the difficulties in finding out the tendency of echoes of large areal extent as in a depression or cyclone, tendency should be reported only in case of isolated cells or groups of cells or a line mainly for aviation purposes. The radar meteorologist will take into consideration the change in height, area, length and intensity of echoes over a period of time in judging the tendency.

dsds : Direction in tens of degrees towards which the echo or group of echoes is moving.fsfs : Speed in kmph of the echo or group of echoes.

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Doppler Weather Radar (DWR):

Doppler Weather Radars provide vital information on radial velocity within tropical cyclone which is not available in conventional radars. Conventional radar provides information on reflectivity and range only, whereas a DWR provides velocity and spectral width data along with various meteorological, hydrological and aviation products which are very useful for forecasters in estimating the storm's center, its intensity and predicting its future movement. The DWR generates these products through a variety of software algorithms.

NOTE: (1) In case of a group of echoes or of a line, only the overall movement of the group of echoes will be reported.

(2) The movement will be observed over a period of, say 30 to 60 minutes.

ALTD: Indicator for echo height information.

HtHt : Height of top of echo above mean sea level in kilometers.

NOTE: (1) Reports of heights should be restricted to a maximum range of 200 km from the station. (2) In the case of echoes of large areas, the height group may be repeated as necessary for including a number of prominent echoes.

The radar meteorologist will have discretion to report any other special phenomena such as Bright Band and Anomalous Propagation in plain language at the end of the message.

Parts A and B both shall be used whenever the echo pattern observed is recognized as relating to tropical cyclone. Part B only will be used for reporting echoes other than connected with tropical cyclone.

The products available from DWR of IMD which are avaible in IMD website include PPI(Z), PPI(V), MAX(Z), VVP2, SR1 and PAC . In the IMD website these products are uploaded at 10 minutes interval when a cyclone comes within a coastal Radar range and could be used by member countries. ______________________

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Satellite cloud imagery monitoring facilities in the Panel countriesBangladesh

At present Bangladesh Meteorological Department is receiving satellite imageries and processing meteorological data from HimawariCast ground receiver and CMACast ground receiver. CMACast system receives Satellite imageries from FY2E and FY2D series of Chinese geostationary satellites at an interval of 30 minutes Surface synoptic data, upper air surrounding data, NWPs of ECMWF, T213: NWPs of the CMA global model, NWP accumulation preci from Japan model. Another component of this system is the application software MICAPS (Meteorological Data Analyzing System) which enables to display surface and upper air data and NWP products and overlay different products and analysis of various weather phenomena and SWAP (Satellite Weather Application Platform) for the visualization of satellite imageries. Another integrated satellite receiving system by Japan Meteorological Agency is HimawariCast. This HimawariCast System disseminates Satellite imageries from Band (1) with 16 channels at the interval of 10 minutes and from Band (2) with four products of JMA-GSM,. Basal Observation Data (Synop, Temp, Ship), EUMETSAT product and MANAM operation Schedule . Each product is generated at the interval of 30 minutes. Among other satellite imageries INSAT is also available through the internet regularly.

IndiaAt present IMD is receiving and processing meteorological data from three Indian satellites namely

Kalpana-1, INSAT-3A & INSAT-3D. Kalpana-1 was launched on 12 th September, 2002 and is located at 74.0° E. INSAT-3A was launched on 10 April, 2003 and is located at 93.5° E. INSAT-3D has been launched on 26 July 2013. Kalpana-1 and INSAT-3A both have pay load of Very High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR) for imaging the earth in three channels viz. Visible (0.55-0.75 µm), Infra-Red (10.5-12.5µm) and Water vapour (5.7-7.1µm) having resolution of 2X2 km in visible and 8X8 km in Water vapour (WV) and Infra red (IR) channels. In addition, the INSAT-3A has a three channel Charge Coupled Device (CCD) payload for imaging the earth in Visible (0.62- 0.69um), Near IR (0.77-0.86µm) and Short Wave IR (1.55-1.77µm) bands of Spectrum. The Resolution of CCD payload in all the three short wave (SW) channels is 1KmX 1 Km. INSAT-3D has an advanced imager with six imagery channels (Visible, Short wave Infra Red (SWIR), Medium Infra Red (MIR), Thermal Infra Red-1(TIR-1), TIR-2, & WV and a nineteen channel sounder (18 IR &1 Visible) for derivation of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles. It provides 1 km. resolution imagery in visible band, 4 km resolution in IR band and 8 km in WV channel

A GIS based quick visualization and analysis tool for satellite data on real time basis, namely Real time Analysis of Product & Information Dissemination (RAPID) has been launched.

The satellite imageries of all channels are updated every half hourly on IMD website. The images displayed are full frame, Asia Mercator Sector and Northwest sector. Animation of last 24 hours/ 72 hours/ Infrared images are also put on IMD website (www.imd.gov.in ) for users and public.

Satellite Derived Products

The computer system (IMDPS) commissioned in year 2000, is used for processing data from INSAT series of satellite. Apart from generating cloud imagery, the following products are derived from satellite data; and the same are also archived.

(i) Atmospheric Motion Vector ( CMVs ) and water vapour winds based on three consecutive KALPANA-l images at 00, 06 ,12 &15 UTC are being disseminated over the GTS and website.

(ii ) Sea Surface Temperature ( SSTs ) eight times a day as well as, daily mean for each 10 x 10

latitude/ longitude grid ( free from cloud contamination) using KALPANA-l data.

(iii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) on daily / weekly / monthly basis over 0.250x0.250

latitude/longitude grid

(iv) Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) on daily / weekly / monthly basis over l0 x 10 attitude/ longitude grid, using the standard temperature threshold technique of Arkin.

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(iv) The cloud motion vectors derived from INSAT satellites and hydro-estimator are displayed on IMD website daily. In addition to this QPE, OLR and SST are also displayed on IMD website daily.

(v) Relative vorticity, vertical wind shear of horizontal wind, low level convergence, upper level divergence are available every hourly on IMD and RSMC website.

(vi) Cyclone specific enhanced colored and gray scale imageries are also available on IMD and RSMC website.

In recent years India has launched the following Satellite which will be useful in the monitoring and prediction of tropical cyclone.

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(a) RISAT-1:

Radar Satellite-1 (RISAT-1) is a state of the art Microwave Remote Sensing Satellite carrying a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Payload operating in C-band (5.35 GHz), which enables imaging of the surface features during both day and night under all weather conditions. Active Microwave Remote Sensing provides cloud penetration and day-night imaging capability. These unique characteristics of C-band (5.35GHz) Synthetic Aperture Radar enable applications in management of natural disasters like flood and cyclone. The data from this satellite are available for operation use from later part of 2012

Cyclone Warning Dissemination System (CWDS) through INSAT

Cyclone Warning Dissemination System (CWDS) is a dependable scheme for transmission of cyclone alert/warning message directly to the area likely to be affected by the cyclone using the S-band broadcast capabilities on board the Indian National Satellite (INSAT) .The system enables the cyclone warning center of IMD to directly and selectively address a particular area likely to be affected by cyclones. 251 Analogue CWDS receiver and 101 Digital CWDS receivers have already been installed in the coastal areas on India. Since the existing 252 Cyclone Warning Dissemination System (CWDS) stations and 101 digital CWDS have become obsolete and many of these systems have stopped working and were beyond repair, IMD and ISRO jointly decided to replace all these CWDS systems by new 500 numbers of Direct Telecom Hub (DTH) based Disaster Warning Dissemination Systems (DWDS) for issuing warning to cyclone prone areas. Till date 178 numbers of DTH based DWDS systems has been installed in Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Andhra Pradesh.

The DTH based DWDS system can disseminate the warning messages in real time to multiple receiving locations spread over large coastal areas. This service is unique in the world and will help the public in general and the administration, in particular, during the cyclone.

Automatic Weather Stations (AWS)

Data from the AWS is being received round the clock at the Receiving Earth Station, Pune through the geostationary satellite KALPANA-I, and utilizing Pseudo-Random burst Sequence (PRBS) technique of transmission.

The raw data received from all AWS is processed at the Earth Station and the synoptic data in WMO synop Mobile FM-14 Ext format is transmitted to Global Telecommunication system (GTS) by AMSS Mumbai every hour. The processed data is archived at earth station, Pune. Procedures for quality checking and archival of AWS data at National Data Centre (NDC), Pune have also commenced. Current AWS data is available in IMD Pune website www.imdpune.gov.in . / RSMC website under Data & Tool

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ANNEX III-B-3

Maldives

Digital Meteorological Data Dissemination (DMDD) system donated by India Meteorological Department (IMD) receives WMO coded GTS data, half hourly cloud imagery from KALPANA and Fax charts in LRIT/HRIT format transmitted by IMD and display on a high resolution color monitor. Images can be further enhanced using different image processing functions and can be focused more on the area of interest. This system has the capability to plot the received met data by values or contours on a specific image. With all these features it helps forecasters to do more precise predictions. However, this system is facing signal loss therefore nothing has been received during 2012 and 2013.

The High Resolution Satellite Image Receiving System GEOSAT 500 has stopped functioning since 2010 due to expiring of service agreement with manufacture.

An integrated satellite receiving system generously donated by China Meteorological Agency was installed on 25 October 2012. This CMACAST system receives Satellite imageries from FY2E and FY2D series of Chinese geostationary satellites at an interval of 30 minutes. Surface synoptic data, Upper air sounding data, NWPs of ECMWF, T213: NWPs of CMA global model, NWP accumulation preci from Germany model and Japan model. Another component of this system is the application software MICAPS (meteorological data analyzing system) which enables to display satellite pictures, surface & upper air data and NWP products and overlay different products and analysis of various weather phenomena. This SYSTEM is satisfactorily operational.

Myanmar

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology in Myanmar is receiving satellite imageries from MTSAT ground receiver, Feng Yun Cast ground receiver and also from US polar-orbiting satellites (NOAA series of the USA).

An integrated satellite receiving system generously donated by China Meteorological Agency was installed on March 2012. This CMACAST system receives Satellite imageries from FY2E and FY2D series of Chinese geostationary satellites at an interval of 30 minutes. Surface synoptic data, Upper air sounding data, NWPs of ECMWF, T213: NWPs of CMA global model, NWP accumulation precipitation from Germany model and Japan model. Another component of this system is the application software MICAPS (meteorological data analyzing system) which enables to display satellite pictures, surface & upper air data and NWP products and overlay different products and analysis of various weather phenomena.

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Oman (Sultanate of Oman)

The Meteorological Department has the following satellite ground receiving stations:

(i) APT and WEFAX system based at Muscat International Airport.

(ii) APT and WEFAX system based at Muscat Airport.

(iii) HRPT system at Muscat International Airport.

(iv)PDUS at Muscat International Airport.

(v) S-VISSR at Muscat International Airport.

All the above mentioned systems receive their data from the EUMETSAT Geostationary Satellite and NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites.

Apart from generating cloud imagery, several products are derived from the satellite data. Some of these products are:

(i) Sounding based on TOVS [on experimental basis]

(ii) Sea surface temperature

(iii) Precipitation estimates

(iv)Cloud tops

(v) Fire detection [on experimental basis]

(vi)Pollution [on experimental basis]

(vii) Vegetation Index - NDVI [on experimental basis]

Pakistan

Satellite Ground Stations operated by PMD

1. HRPT at Islamabad and Quetta and 2. FY-2E/D (CMA cast-satellite receiving products, cloud imageries, winds and vorticity etc) at Islamabad and Karachi Airport.

3. Other satellite imageries available thru internet are accessed too.

Sri Lanka

Satellite imageries and products are received from FY 2 And COMS. through the real time receiving systems .

METEOSAT-7/ MTSAT/ INSAT imageries are accessed through Internet regularly

Thailand

The Meteorological Department in Thailand is receiving satellite imagery from Himawari 8,. FY-2, FY-3 TIROS (NOAA15, 16, 18, 19), and Terra/Aqua Direct Broadcast (MODIS) satellites.

.___________________

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C H A P T E R IV

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING

4.1 Forecasting development and movement of tropical cyclones

The final responsibility for analysis and forecasting of genesis, intensification and movement of tropical cyclones in the region will be with the National Meteorological Service of each of the Members. However, in addition to the exchange of observational data needed for analysis and forecasting, the following special arrangements for the exchange of processed products and advisories have been made.

(i) (a) Processed products will be provided by RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi. A list of output products broadcast from RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi for international purposes is given in Table IV1. A list of other products broadcast through facsimile from RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi for national purposes is given in Annex IV-A.(b) RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi will issue a tropical weather outlook once daily throughout the year for the benefit of the Member countries. It is being transmitted on the GTS at 06 UTC. The outlook covering the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea indicates possible development of tropical depressions over the sea. An additional outlook will be transmitted again over the GTS at 1700 UTC when a Depression is located and expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm.

(ii) In case there is a tropical cyclone in the Panel region, RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi will also issue the following:(a) Tropical cyclone advisories, details of which have been given in earlier chapters.(b) Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) New Delhi will issue Tropical Cyclone Advisory

bulletins for the international air navigation to Meteorological Watch Offices (MWOs) in area of responsibility at least for every six hours.

(ii) The satellite tropical disturbance summary issued from Washington will be exchanged through the GTS.

(iii) National Meteorological Services may like to use climatological charts of average vector motions for the track prediction. The track prediction based on climatological charts are usually most useful (minimum error) when tropical storms are to the south of subtropical anticyclones. Such charts for the region for each month and for each season are available in IMD and RSMC, New Delhi website in the form of cyclone Web Atlas.

4.2 Prediction Models in operational use during the year 2014

4.2.1 Global Forecast System

The Global Forecast System (GFS), adopted from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was implemented at India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi on IBM based High Power Computing Systems (HPCS) at T574L64 (~ 23 km in horizontal over the tropics) with Grid point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme as the global data assimilation for the forecast up to 10 days. The model is run twice in a day (based on 00 UTC and 12 UTC initial conditions). The real-time outputs are made available to the national web site of IMD (http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/welcome.htm). IMD also makes use of NWP products prepared by some other operational NWP Centers like, ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting), GFS (NCEP), JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), UKMO etc..

4.2.2 Regional Forecast System

IMD operationally runs three regional models WRFDA-WRFARW(v3.2), and HWRF for short-range prediction during cyclone condition.

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4.2.2.1. Non-hydrostatic mesoscale modeling system WRFDA-WRF-ARW

The mesoscale forecast system Weather Research and Forecast WRFDA (version 3.2) with 3DVAR data assimilation is being operated daily twice to generate mesoscale analysis at 27 km and 9 km horizontal resolutions using IMD GFS-T574L64 analysis as first guess and forecasts as boundary condition. Using analysis and updated boundary conditions from the WRFDA, the WRF (ARW) is run for the forecast up to 3 days with double nested configuration with horizontal resolution of 27 km and 9 km and 38 Eta levels in the vertical. The model mother domain covers the area between lat. 25ºS to 45ºN long 40ºE to 120ºE and child covers whole India. The performance of the model is found to be reasonably skilful for cyclone genesis and track prediction. At ten other regional Centers, very high resolution mesoscale models (WRF at 3 km resolution) are also operational with their respective regional setup/configurations.

4.2.2.2 Hurricane WRF Model (HWRF)

Recently under Indo-US joint collaborative program, IMD adapted Hurricane-WRF model for Tropical Cyclone track and intensity forecast for North Indian Ocean region for its operational requirements. The basic version of the model HWRFV (3.2+) which was operational at EMC, NCEP, USA was ported on IMD IBM P-6/575 machine with nested domain of 27 km and 9 km horizontal resolution and 42 vertical levels with outer domain covering the area of 800x800 and inner domain 60x60 with Center of the system adjusted to the Center of the observed cyclonic storm. The outer domain covers most of the North Indian and the inner domain mainly covering the cyclonic vortex which moves along the movement of the system. The model has special features such as vortex initialization, coupled with Ocean model to take into account the changes in SST during the model integration, tracker and diagnostic software to provide the graphic and text information on track and intensity prediction for real-time operational requirement. It has been further upgraded to 2 km horizontal resolution in 2016.

As part of model validation, case studies were undertaken to test the ability of the model for the Cyclonic storms formed during the year 2010 and model forecasts are produced up to 5 days during the 2011 cyclone season as an experimental forecast in real-time. In these runs only the atmospheric model (HWRF) was tested. The Ocean Model (POM-TC) and Ocean coupler requires the customization of Ocean Model for Indian Seas. In this regards, IMD is working in collaboration with INCOIS, Hyderabad which is running the Ocean Models (POM)/Hybrid co-ordinate ocean model (HYCOM) to support in porting the Ocean Model with Indian Ocean climatology and real time data of SST over Indian Seas. The model is run on real time twice a day (started from cyclone season 2012) based on 00 UTC and 12 UTC initial conditions to provide 6 hourly track and intensity forecasts valid up to 120 hours. The model uses IMD GFS-T574L64 analysis/forecast as first guess.

4.2.3. Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP)

A cyclone genesis parameter, termed the genesis potential parameter (GPP), for the North Indian Ocean is developed (Kotal et al, 2009). The parameter is defined as the product of four variables, namely vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability, and the inverse of vertical wind shear. The parameter is operationally used for distinction between non-developing and developing systems at their early development stages with threshold of T3.0 at GPP value of 8.0 or more. The composite GPP value is found to be around three to five times greater for developing systems than for non-developing systems. The analysis of the parameter at early development stage of T1.5 is found to provide a useful predictive signal for intensification of the system.The grid point analysis and forecast of the genesis parameter up to seven days is also generated on real time (available at http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Analysis.htm). Higher value of the GPP over a region indicates higher potential of genesis over the region. Region with GPP value equal or greater than 30 is found to be high potential zone for cyclogenesis. The analysis of the parameter and its effectiveness during cyclonic disturbances affirm its usefulness as a predictive signal (4-5 days in advance) for cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean

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4.2.4. Statistical Dynamical model for Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP)A statistical-dynamical model (SCIP) (Kotal et al, 2008) has been implemented for real time forecasting of

12 hourly intensity up to 72 hours. The model parameters are derived based on model analysis fields of past cyclones. The parameters selected as predictors are: Initial storm intensity, Intensity changes during past 12 hours, Storm motion speed, Initial storm latitude position, Vertical wind shear averaged along the storm track, Vorticity at 850 hPa, Divergence at 200 hPa and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). For the real-time forecasting, model parameters are derived based on the forecast fields of IMD-GFS model. The method is found to provide useful guidance for the operational cyclone forecasting. .

4.2.5. Multi-model ensemble (MME) technique (IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, ECMWF, JMA)

The multi model ensemble (MME) technique is based on a statistical linear regression approach. The predictors selected for the ensemble technique are forecasts latitude and longitude positions at 12-hour interval up to 120-hour of five operational NWP models. In the MME method, forecast latitude and longitude position of the member models are linearly regressed against the observed (track) latitude and longitude position for each forecast time at 12-hours intervals for the forecast up to 120-hour. The outputs at 12 hours forecast intervals of these models are first post-processed using GRIB decoder. The 12 hourly predicted cyclone tracks are then determined from the respective mean sea level pressure fields using a cyclone tracking software. Multiple linear regression technique is used to generate weights (regression coefficients) for each model for each forecast hour (12hr, 24hr, 36 hr, 48hr, 60hr, 72hr,84hr, 96hr, 108hr and 120 hrs) based on the past data. These coefficients are then used as weights for the ensemble forecasts. 12-hourly forecast latitude (LAT f) and longitude (LONf) positions are defined by multiple linear regression technique. In the updated version, MM5 model in the ensemble member is replaced by IMD WRF model and also included IMD GFS T574L64. A collective bias correction is applied in the MME by applying multiple linear regression based minimization principle for the member models GFS(IMD), GFS(NCEP), ECMWF, UKMO and JMA. ECMWF data are available at 24h intervals. Therefore, 12h, 36h, 60h, 84h, 108h forecast positions are computed based on linear interpolation. All these NWP products are routinely made available in real time on the IMD web site: www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in..4.2.6. Rapid Intensification (RI) IndexA rapid intensification index (RII) is developed for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. The RII uses large-scale characteristics of tropical cyclones to estimate the probability of rapid intensification (RI) over the subsequent 24-h. The RI is defined as an increase of intensity 30 kt (15.4 ms -1) during 24-h. The RII technique is developed by combining threshold (index) values of the eight variables for which statistically significant differences are found between the RI and non-RI cases. The variables are: Storm latitude position, previous 12-h intensity change, initial storm intensity, vorticity at 850 hPa, divergence at 200 hPa, vertical wind shear, lower tropospheric relative humidity, and storm motion speed. The probability of RI is found to increase from 0% to 100% when the total number of indices satisfied increases from zero to eight. The forecasts are made available in real time from 2013.

4.2.7. Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast based on Global Models Ensemble (TIGGE) Data As part of WMO Program to provide a guidance of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in near real-time for the

WMO/ESCAP panel Member Countries based on the TIGGE Cyclone XML (CXML) data, IMD implemented JMA supported software for real-time TC forecast over North Indian Ocean (NIO) during 2011.

The Ensemble and deterministic forecast products from ECMWF (50+1 Members), NCEP (20+1 Members), UKMO (23+1 Members) and MSC (20+1 Members) are available near real-time for NIO region for named TCs. These Products includes: Deterministic and Ensemble TC track forecasts, Strike Probability Maps, Strike probability of cities within the range of 120 kms 4 days in advance. The JMA provided software to prepare Web page to provide guidance of tropical cyclone forecasts in near real-time for the WMO/ESCAP panel Members. The forecast products are made available in real time.

4.2.8. NCMRWF and IITM GEFS At NCMRWF and IITM the Global ensemble forecasting system (GEFS) configuration consists of four

cycles corresponding to 00Z, 06Z, 12Z 18Z and 10-day forecasts are made using the 00Z initial condition.

A T190L28 control that is started with T574L64 analysis and run out to 10 days 20 perturbed forecasts each run out to 10 days at T190L28 horizontal and vertical resolution. The initial

perturbations are generated using Ensemble Transform with Rescaling (ETR) method.

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4.2.8.1. The Ensemble Mean and Spread

The ensemble spread is a measure of the difference between the members and is represented by the standard deviation (SD) with respect to the ensemble mean (EM). On average, small (high) spread indicates a high (low) forecast accuracy.

The ensemble spread is flow-dependent and varies for different parameters. It usually increases with the forecast range, but there can be cases when the spread is larger at shorter

forecast ranges than at longer ranges. This might happen when the initial days are characterized by strong synoptic systems with complex structures but are followed by large-scale "fair weather" high pressure systems.

4.2.8.2. Probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation In these charts, the probability that 24-hour precipitation amounts over a 2.5x2.5 lat-long grid box will

exceed certain threshold values is given. The forecast probability is estimated directly from the 20-member global ensemble.

At each grid point the number of ensemble members having a 24-hour precipitation amount within a specified range (e.g. 1-2cm, 2-5cm etc) is counted (M) and the probability is expressed as 100*(M/20).

4.3 Storm surge forecasting

Storm surge forecasting will be the responsibility of the National Meteorological Services. However, storm surge guidance will be issued and incorporated in the Tropical Cyclone Advisory bulletin by RSMC- New Delhi based on IIT, Delhi Storm Surge prediction model.

4.4 Coastal inundation forecastingThe coastal inundation forecast by RSMC, New Delhi commenced form 2013 experimentally with cyclone

Phailin. This forecast is provided to disaster managers. It is mainly based on coastal inundation model run by Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) Hyderabad. This is ADCIRC model is adapted from USA. An example of this model product is shown below

4.5 Seasonal Prediction of cyclonic disturbancesSeasonal prediction of cyclonic disturbances is being issued experimentally for the post monsoon season

(Oct.-Dec.) since 2014. This contains information about the frequency of cyclonic disturbances (depression and above) over the Bay of Bengal and number of cyclonic disturbance days over the north Indian Ocean.

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http://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CDAQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FIndian_National_Centre_for_Ocean_Information_Services&ei=lwjaU-O2NMuKuASar4DgDw&usg=AFQjCNHNgD7WWDJkHn4TQ3eqgpJuAjxvCg&sig2=flOnQx5Fgi3FNBv_2dutUA&bvm=bv.72185853,d.dGc

IV-5

Processed products updated and uploaded on IMD’s website (www.imd.gov.in) on real time basis by RSMC –Tropical Cyclones New Delhi for national/international purposes.

(A) WEATHER CHARTS

Model ProductsGFS Analysis and forecast up to 240 hrsWRF-VAR (AWR) Analysis 27 km Analysis and forecast up to 72 hrsWRF-VAR (AWR) Analysis 9 km Analysis and forecast up to 72 hrsExtended Range Forecast Temperature anomaly and mean rainfall forecast up to four weeksOther products Weekly Upper Level Mean Winds

Weekly Upper Level Wind AnomaliesMonthly Upper Level Mean WindsMonthly Upper Level Wind Anomalies

HWRF Analyses and forecasts upto five daysEPS Forecast Track and strike probability upto five days

NCMRWF : GEFS EPS products, forecast track and strike probability upto five days. NCUM Analysis and forecast up to 168 hrs.

(B) DOPPLER RADAR PRODUCTS

MAX(Z) Product Plan Position Indicator(Z) Volume Velocity processing(2) Plan Position Indicator(V) Surface Rainfall Intensity Precipitation Accumulation (PAC) 24 hrs at 0300 UTC

(C) INSAT IMAGES & INSAT PRODUCTS

(i) INSAT IMAGES(a)FULL DISC

Visible Channel Infra-red Channel Colour Composite Water Vapour Channel

(b) SECTOR Visible Channel Infra-red Channel Colour Composite Water Vapour Channel Enhanced IR Channel Enhanced Visible Channel

(c) NORTH WEST SECTOR Visible Channel Infra-red Channel Colour Composite Water Vapour Channel

(d) NORTH EAST SECTOR Visible Channel Infra-red Channel Colour Composite Water Vapour Channel

(e) Cyclone specific images Enhanced grey scale image Enhanced colour image

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http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatglobe-wv.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatglobe-irc.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatglobe-ir.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatglobe-vis.htm













http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/plot/monthly/wind_anomaly.html

http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/plot/monthly/wind_mean.html

http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/plot/weekly/wind_anomaly.html

http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/plot/weekly/wind_mean.html


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(ii) PRODUCTS Daily Average WV image from Kalpana-1 Daily Average IR image from Kalpana-1 Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) Water Vapour Winds (WVW) Cloud Top Temperature Imag e Cloud Top Temperature Image ( Below -40oC ) G.P.S. Precipitable Water Data Insat - 3A CCD Image Normalised Difference Vegetative Index Upper Tropospheric Humidity ( UTH ) Map of Daily UTH Map of Weekly UTH Sea Surface Temperature ( SST ) Map of Weekly SST Map of Daily SST Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) Latitude-Time Diagram of daily OLR from 1 January 2010 Latitude-Time Diagram of daily OLR from 1 January 2009 Latitude-Time Diagram of daily OLR for the Year 2009 Latitude-Time Diagram of daily OLR (Monsoon season 2009 Latitude-Time Diagram of daily OLR(Monsoon Season 2008) Map of Daily Mean OLR Map of Weekly Mean OLR Map of Monthly Mean OLR Map of Seasonal Mean OLR Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) Map of Daily QPE Map of Weekly QPE Map of Monthly QPE Map of Seasonal QPE

NOAA METOP IMAGES (Microwave channel)

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http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/season_qpe.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/monthly_qpe.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/weekly_qpe.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/daily_qpe.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/qpe.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/seasonalolr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/monthlyolr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/weekolr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/dmeanolr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/meanolr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/monolr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/dailyolr2.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/dailyolr1.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/dailyolr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/daily_sst.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/weekly_sst.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/sst.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/weekly_uth.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/daily_uth.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/uth.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/ndvi.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatccd.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/gps.pdf

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso1.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/wvw.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/cmv.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/compositeir.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/compositewv.htm

V-1C H A P T E R V

COMMUNICATIONS

5.1 General

The basic communication network for the exchange of data, forecast, warnings and observations will be the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). Tropical cyclone advisories and warnings (SIGMETs) for aviation shall be transmitted by means of the Aeronautical Fixed Service (AFS), according to the provision of ICAO Annex 3/WMONo. 49, Technical Regulations [C.3.1], and ICAO ASIA/PAC and MID ANP FASIDs.

Processed products of RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi are distributed in chart form throughSatellite broadcast as well as through ftp server on Internet.

In the GTS a regional arrangement exists for the exchange of raw and processed data, forecasts, warnings and addressed messages. Normally message-switching computers in GTS transmit the data on a first in-first out basis. However, priority can be assigned to certain messages on the basis of abbreviated headings. Such messages are given preference over other messages in transmission on the circuits.

The messages for which high priorities are to be assigned are:

(i) all radar observations in cyclonic storm situations;

(ii) composite ships' surface and upper-air observations from the tropical cyclone field:

(iii) tropical cyclone warnings;

(iv) tropical weather outlook;

(v) tropical cyclone advisories; and

(vi) satellite bulletins from RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi.

To exchange these messages on priority basis among the Panel countries the abbreviated headings as decided in consultation with RTH New Delhi will be used.

5.2 Procedures to be followed

WMO headings.Station location indicators.International block and station index numbers will be used to send surface and upper-air observations.

5.2.1 Tropical cyclone warning headings

The headings used for the exchange of tropical cyclone warnings by the Panel countries are given in Table V1. Member countries will request RTH New Delhi to assign priority to these headings if not already provided.

5.2.2 Telecommunication headings for the exchange of radar observations

The telecommunication headings used for the exchange of radar observations are listed in Table V2.

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V-2

5.2.3 Telecommunication headings for the exchange of other messagesThe telecommunication headings (which will be the priority headings) for the exchange of tropical weather outlook, tropical storm advisories and satellite bulletins as decided in consultation with the RTH New Delhi are listed in Table V3.

5.2.4 Telecommunication headings for the exchange of tropical cyclone advisories andwarnings for aviation

The telecommunication headings for the exchange of tropical cyclone advisories and warnings for aviation are given in Table V4.

5.3 Existing GTS circuits among the Panel countries1. New Delhi -Bangkok Upgraded to 64 Kbps TCP/IP WMO FTP circuit. 2. New Delhi- Colombo (Sri Lanka) Upgraded to internet.3. New Delhi Dhaka(Bangladesh) 64 kbps TCP/IP WMO Socket circuit, satellite (since March 2007)4. New Delhi- Karachi(Pakistan) Upgraded to 64 kbps. 5. New Delhi -Malé(Maldives) Upgraded to Internet w.e.f. February,2004.6. New Delhi -Yangon(Myanmar) Upgraded to internet. 7. New Delhi -Muscat Upgraded to 64 kbps TCP/IP WMO Socket circuit.8. New Delhi.-Jeddah Upgraded to internet.9. New Delhi – Yemen No direct connectivity.10. Bangkok - NayPyiTaw(Myanmar) Internet11. Bangkok - Jeddah 64 Kbps TCP/IP WMO FTP circuit

5.4 List of important telephone numbers and addresses connected with tropical cyclone warnings in the Panel countriesA list containing addresses of the tropical cyclone warning centres of the Panel countries, together

with their telephone numbers, is given in Annex V-A.

5.5 Global Maritime disturbances Safety System (GMDSS)

GMDSS is a satellite based broadcast system intended for the benefit of ships at high seas. EGC (Enhanced Group Call) Safety Net System of the INMARSAT (International Maritime Satellite Organization) together with NAVTEX and MSI (Maritime Safety Information) broadcast form integral parts of the GMDSS. Under this ocean going vessels would receive:

a) Meteorological forecasts and warnings;b) Navigational aid and warnings; andc) Helps in search and rescue operations. WMO has suggested date of full implementation of the

system as 1st February, 1999. IMD is broadcasting two GMDSS bulletins at 0900 and 1800 UTC everyday with effect from 1st October, 1998 and additional warnings during the cyclone season.

5.6 India Meteorological Department is hosting its own website www.imd.gov.in and www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in which also provides information pertaining to WX Charts, Forecasts, Warnings, Satellite Imageries, Hydrological and Seismological and other weather related topics are updated on regular basis.

5.7 Regional Meteorological Centres located at Delhi, Chennai, Nagpur and Mumbai are hosting their own websites.

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V-3

TABLE V-1ABBREVIATED HEADINGS FOR EXCHANGE OF

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR THE HIGH SEAS

Country GTS Abbreviated Headings Priority

1. Bangladesh WTBW20 VGDC Highest

2. India WTIN20 DEMS Highest

3. Maldives WTMV20 VRMM Highest

4. Myanmar WTBM20 and WOBM20 VBRR Highest

5 Oman (Sultanate of Oman) WTOM20 and WSOM20 OOMS Highest

6. Pakistan WWPK20 OPKC Highest

7. Sri Lanka WTSB40 VCCC Highest

8. Thailand WTTH20 VTBB Highest

9. Yemen WTYE20 OYSN Highest

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V-4

TABLE V-2

Communication headings for the exchange of radar observations

Country Abbreviated heading

1. Bangladesh SDBW20 VGDC

2. India SDIN90 VABB (Mumbai-Karachi)SDIN90 VECC (Kolkata-Dhaka and Bangkok)SDIN90 VOMM (Chennai-Bangkok, Dhaka and Colombo)

3. Maldives SDMV20 VRMM

4. Myanmar SDBM20 VBRR

5. Pakistan SDPK20 OPKCSDPK40 OPKC

6. Thailand SDTH20 VTBB

7. Sri Lanka SDSB20 VCCC

TABLE V-3

GTS headings for the exchange of tropical weather outlook, tropical storm advisory and satellite bulletin

Country Abbreviated heading

Tropical weather outlook Tropical storm advisory

BMAA01 VGDC Bangladesh WWBW20 VGDC, BMAA01 VBRR India WTIN20 DEMS BMAA01 OPKCPakistan WWPK20 OPKC BMAA01 VCCC

BMAA01 VTBB BMAA01 VRMMBMAA01 OOMSBMAA01 OYSN

Satellite bulletins generated by RTH, New Delhi

TCIN20 DEMS (Sat bulletins based on INSAT pictures)- For InternationalTCIN50 DEMS (Sat bulletins based on INSAT picturesTCIN51 DEMS (Intense precipitation advisory bulletins For NationalATIN50 DEMS (For all CDRs during cyclone period)

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TABLE V-4

WMO headings for the exchange of Tropical Cyclone Advisories for aviation and SIGMETS

I. TC Advisories

Country Abbrevaited heading Area

1. India FKIN21 VIDP Bay of BengalFKIN20 VIDP Arabian Sea

II. SIGMETs for tropical cyclones

Country Abbrevaited heading Area

1. Bangladesh WCBW20 VGHS Dhaka

2. India WCINxx VECC KolkataWCINxx VOMM ChennaiWCINxx VABB Mumbai

3. Maldives WCMV31 VRMM Malé

4. Myanmar WCBMxx VYYY Yangon

5. Oman (Sultanate of Oman) WCOMxx OOMS Muscat

6. Pakistan WCPKxx OPKC Karachi

7. Sri Lanka WCSB31 VCCC Colombo

8. Thailand WCTH31 VTBB Bangkok

9. Yemen - -

Notes:

1. TCAC New Delhi shall send the TC advisories to the MWOs through AFTN. In addition to the MWOs listed above, the advisories have been sent to all MWOs in the area of responsibility of TCAC New Delhi according to ICAO ASIA/PAC and MID Regions FASIDs.

2. TCAC New Delhi have send the TC advisories to Singapore OPMET Data Bank – AFTN address WSSSYMYX.

3. The MWOs listed above have send their SIGMETs for tropical cyclones through AFTN to the MWOs responsible for the adjacent FIRs and to Singapore OPMET Data Bank – AFTN address WSSSYMYX.

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ANNEX V-A-1

LIST OF IMPORTANT ADDRESSES AND TELEPHONE NUMBERS CONNECTEDWITH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN THE PANEL COUNTRIES

BangladeshMr. Shamsuddin AhmedDirector Phone: Off: (880) 2-9123838,Bangladesh Meteorological Department (880) 2-8144968(direct)Meteorological Complex Res: (880) 2-9827598Agargaon Fax: (880) 2-8118230Dhaka-1207 E-mail: [email protected]

Home page: http://www.bmd.gov.bd

Mossammat Ayesha KhatunDeputy Director Phone: Off: (880) 2-9114388Storm Warning Centre Res: (880) 2-55073023Dhaka Fax: (880) 2-8118230

E-mail: [email protected]

Duty Forecasting Officer Phone: (880) 2-9141437Storm Warning Centre (880) 2-9135742Dhaka (880) 2-9111015

(880) 2-9112439Fax: (880) 2-8118230


India Dr. K.J. RameshDirector General of Meteorology Phone: Off: (91) 11-24611842India Meteorological Department (IMD) Fax (91) 11-24611792Regional Telecommunication Hub Res: (91) 11-24122236Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road E-mail: [email protected] Home page: http://www.imd.gov.in

Dr. M. Mohapatra Phone: Off: (91) 11-24652484Scientist-G (Services) and Head Res: (91) 9868623475RSMC, New Delhi E-mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

Duty Officer Phone: (91) 11-24631913 (24 hrs)

Maldives Mr. Ali ShareefDeputy Director General, Phone: Off: (960) 332 6200Maldives Meteorological Service, Fax: (960) 332 0021 , 334 1797Hulhule’ 22000, Res: (960) 332 2829Maldives. Mobile: (960) 7771828 Email: [email protected]

Duty Forecaster, Phone: Off: (960) 332 3084National Meteorological Centre Fax: (960) 331 5509

Mobile: (960) 796 7171 Email: [email protected]

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mailto:[email protected]





ANNEX V-A-2

Myanmar Dr. Hrin Nei ThiamDirector-General Phone: Off: (9567) 411031Department of Meteorology (9567) 411032and Hydrology (9567) 411422Building No. 5 (9567) 411446Nay Pyi Taw (9567) 411526

(9567) 411527 Res: (9567) 403404Fax: (9567) 411449 (9567) 411526 (9567) 411527

Email: [email protected] [email protected]

Home page:www.dmh.gov.mm

Oman Mr. Abdul Rahim Salim Ali Al-HarmiOman Meteorological Department (Directororate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation DGMAN),Muscat Intl Airport Phone: 0096824518303(24 hours) P.O. Box 1, P.C. 111 Fax: 00968519363 (24 hours)Muscat Home page: http://www.. met.gov om

Mr Badar Alrumhi Phone: 0096824519610 (office) +96824518303 (24hrs) Fax: 00968519363 (24 hours)Director of Main Forecasting Center Mobile: 0096899327811

Email: [email protected]

Mr Khalid Aljahwari Phone: 0096824518272 (office) +96824518303 (24hrs) Fax: 00968519363 (24 hours)

Assistant Director Mobile:0096899355368Main Forecasting Center Email: [email protected]

Pakistan Dr. Ghulam Rasul Tel: + (92) 51-9250367, Fax: + (92) 51-9250368Director General Email: [email protected] Meteorological Department Website: http:// www.pmd.gov.pk Headquarters Office, Sector H-8/2,Islamabad – 44000, Pakistan

Mr. Abdul Qayoom Bhutto Tel: + (92) 21-99261434, Fax: + (92) 21-99261405Director Cell: + (92) 333-7271894Marine Meteorology –Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC), Email: [email protected] Complex, University Road, Website: http://www.pmd.gov.pkKarachi – 75270, Pakistan

Duty Forecasting Officer / Meteorologist, Tel: + (92) 21-99261417 Main Analysis Centre +(92) 21 99238958 (24 Hours)Meteorological Complex, University Road Fax. +(92) 21-99261405Karachi – 75270, Pakistan Website: http:// www.pmd.gov.pk

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http://www.pakmet.com.pk/




http://www.pakmet.com.pk/


http://www.dmh.gov.mm/


ANNEX V-A-3

Sri Lanka Mr. L. ChandrapalaDirector-General of Meteorology Phone: Off: (94) 11-2694104Department of Meteorology Fax (94) 11-2698311Bauddhaloka Mawatha E-mail: [email protected]

Homepage:http://www.meteo.gov.lkE-mail: [email protected]

Director, Weather Forecasting and Decision Support

Director, NMC, Colombo Phone/Fax (94) 11-2691443E-mail: [email protected]

Deputy Director, NMC, Colombo Phone/Fax (94) 11-2682661

E-mail: [email protected] Meteorologist, NMC, Colombo Phone (94) 11-2684746


Duty Meteorologist, Met office Phone (94) 11-2252721International Airport, Katunayake E-mail: [email protected]

Fax: (94) 11-2252319

Duty Meteorologist, Met office Phone (94) 47-2031488 (47)International Airport, Mattala Fax: (94) 47-2031489 (47)

Thailand Mr. Wanchai Sakudomchai

Director-General Phone : (66) 2-399 1425 Thai Meteorological Department Fax : (66) 2-399 1426 4353 Sukumvit Road E-mail : [email protected] Bang-Na, Bangkok 10260 Home page: http://www.tmd.go.th

Focal Points of the Forecast Center (in accordance to Para. 9.5 of PTC -36th final report)

BangladeshMossammat Ayesha KhatunDeputy Director Phone: Off: (880) 2-9114388Storm Warning Centre Res: (880) 2-55073023Dhaka Fax: (880) 2-8118230


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ANNEX V-A-4

India :

1. Dr. M. Mohapatra Phone. Off: +011 -24652484 Scientist ‘G (Services)’ Mobile 9868623475 Head RSMC New Delhi Fax: +011 -24626815--????? India Meteorological Department E-mail: [email protected]

Lodi Road, New Delhi -110003 [email protected]

Maldives

1. Ali SHAREEF Deputy Director General, Phone: Off: (960) 332 6200 Maldives Meteorological Service, Fax: (960) 332 0021 , 334 1797 Hulhule’ 22000, Res: (960) 332 2829 Maldives. Mobile: (960) 7771828

Email: [email protected]. Ahmed Rasheed

Meteorologist Phone: Off: (960) 332 3084 Maldives Meteorological Service, Fax: (960) 332 0021 , 3315509 Hulhule’ 22000, Maldives. Mobile: (960) 7768565

Email: [email protected]. Duty Forecaster

Meteorological Watch Office Phone: Off: (960) 332 3084 National Meteorological Centre Fax: (960) 331 5509, Mobile: (960) 796 7171

Email: [email protected]

Mr. Hla Tun Department of Meteorology Phone: Off: (+9567) 411526and Hydrology Fax: (+9567) 411527Office No. (5) Ministry of Transport Email: [email protected]

Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar [email protected] of Oman

Khalid Khamis saif AL-Jahwari Tel (00968) 24518272Mobile: +96899355368

Assistant Director of forecasting and Fax (00968) 24519363observing practices [email protected] or [email protected] General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) Muscat International Airport P.O.BOX 1, P. C. 111 Sultanate of Oman

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ANNEX V-A-5

PAKISTAN

(1) Mr. Abdul Qayoom Bhutto Director Marine Meteorology- Tel : +(92) 21 - 99261434 Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Fax: + (92)-21- 99261405 Meteorological Complex, University Road Cell: +(92) 333-7271894 Karanchi-75270, Pakistan Email: [email protected]

(2) Mr. Muhammad Hanif Director, Tel: +92-51-9250595 National Weather Forecasting Centre, +92-51-9250363-4 (24 Hours) Pakistan Meteorological Department, Fax: +92-51-9250368, Head quarters Office, Sector H-8/2, Cell: +92-0334 5635796 Islamabad- 44000, Pakistan Email: [email protected]

[email protected] PMD website: http:// www.pmd.gov.pk S R I L A NKA

(1) Mr. S.R. Jayasekera Phone/Fax NO. (94)11-2691443Director Email: [email protected] National Meteorological Centre Department of Meteorology COLOMBO 7, SRI LANKA

(2) Mrs. Anusha Warnasooriya Phone No. (94)11-2682661Deputy Director Fax No. (94)11-2691443National Meteorological Centre, Email:[email protected] of Meteorology

COLOMBO 7, SRI LANKA

(3) Duty Meteorologist Phone No. (94)11-2684746 National Meteorological Centre Fax No. (94)11-2691443

Department of Meteorology E-mail: meteo2@ s ltnet.lk COLOMBO 7, SRI LANKA

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ANNEX V-A-6

THAILAND

(1). Ms. Sugunyanee Yavinchan Phone: (66) 2-398 9801Director, Weather Forecast Bureau Fax : (66) 2-399 4001Thai Meteorological Department (24 hours)4353 Sukumvit Road E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] 10260 Home page: http://www.tmd.go.thTHAILAND

(2) Mr. Surapong Sarapa Phone: (66) 2-398 9830 Director, Central Weather Forecast Division Fax: (66) 2-398 9836 Weather Forecast Bureau (66) 2-398 9816 Thai Meteorological Department (24 hours) 4353 Sukumvit Road E-mail: [email protected], Bang-Na [email protected] Bangkok 10260 Home page: http://www.tmd.go.th THAILAND

YEMEN

(1) Mr. Mohammed S. Hamid Alzuraiqi Phone: + 967 1 419771PR of Yemen with WMO Cell:+ 967-777228636Assistant Deputy Chairman for Meteorology, Fax: + 967 1 419770Civil Avaition & Meteorology Authority, Email: [email protected] Meteorological Service (CAMA/YMS) Republic of Yemen Home page:http://www.yms.gov.ye

(2) Mr. Rashed Al Areqi Phone: + 967736021713

Director, Public Weather Service FAX: + 967 1 419770Yemen Meteorological Service Email: [email protected] of Yemen

PTC Secretariat

WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) Secretariat, Tel: +(92) 51-9250365, 9250593Meteorological Complex, Fax:+(92) 51-9250368Pitras Bukhari Road, Sector H-8/2, E-mail: [email protected] -44000, Pakistan PTC Website:http://www.tsuptc-wmo.org

WMO Tropical Cyclone programme (TCP)

Mr Taoyong Peng Chief, Tropical Cyclone Programme DivisionWDS Department, WMO, GenevaTel.+(41 22) 730 8145Fax : +(41 22) 730 8021E-Mail: [email protected]

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VI-1

C H A P T E R VI

MONITORING AND QUALITY CONTROL OF DATA

6.1 Monitoring of data

It will be the responsibility of the National Meteorological Services to monitor the data, advisories and forecasts received by them in accordance with the specified arrangements. Each tropical cyclone warning centre will review from time to time the inflow of data to the centre and also the transmission to neighbouring services of the messages they are responsible for sending out.

To be sure of reception of important data in the case of cyclonic storm situations, cyclone warning centres of the Member countries will transmit addressed messages to RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi four times a day which will include important surface, upper-air and ships' observations.

The National Meteorological Services will inform RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi of any shortcomings in the flow of data (raw and processed) and also indicate any requirements over and above those already agreed upon for tropical cyclone warning purposes.

6.2 Quality control

National Meteorological Services will make extra efforts to make sure that all observational data passed on GTS, particularly during disturbed weather, have been checked for errors and that corrections are made if needed. They will impress upon their observing stations the need for accuracy of data, particularly in tropical cyclone situations and the difficulties that may be caused in the decision process by an incorrectly recorded or transmitted observation.

In case of doubt as to the correctness of any observation or part thereof, an addressed message will be sent to the national service and to RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi requesting confirmation.

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VII-1

C H A P T E R VII

ARCHIVAL OF DATA

7.1 Necessity for data archivalIn view of the development of computer facilities in the region, it is expected that the research efforts on

tropical cyclones will substantially increase. In addition to dynamic modeling of tropical cyclones on the new generation computer being acquired by national authorities, it is expected that the synoptic oriented investigations and research as well as verification programmes will be undertaken in the region.

It is, therefore, necessary to create data sets as detailed and as complete as possible for all the future cyclones.

7.2 Tropical cyclone data on landfall

There is a dearth of information on actual conditions of tropical cyclones and an endeavor is therefore required to be made to utilize whatever information is obtained to the maximum extent possible. In particular, the Panel countries are interested in verifying forecast and estimated conditions against the actual.

Panel countries will take appropriate steps to ensure that after a tropical cyclone makes a landfall all the available data pertaining to that tropical cyclone are collected and archived. Data on the actual condition of winds, storm surge, surface pressure and rainfall from stations near the point of landfall will be sent to RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi. If the landfall is in a country other than India, its meteorological service will send a brief summary of information to RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi for inclusion in the RSMC New Delhi tropical cyclone report.

In the case of a tropical cyclone making a landfall on the coast of a country, which is not a member of the Panel, RSMC Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi will collect the information for inclusion in the RSMC, New Delhi tropical cyclones report.

7.3 Role of RSMC-tropical cyclones, New Delhi in data archival

For each tropical cyclone occurrence in the area, initially RSMC tropical cyclones New Delhi will compile the following data sets:

(i) Daily synoptic charts covering the area 450 N to 300 S and 300 E to 1200 E for the surface and upper-air charts for the levels 700, 500 and 200 hPa for 00 UTC and 12 UTC.

(ii) All upper-air data from stations within 15 degrees of the tropical cyclone field.(iii) The tracks of tropical cyclones for the Panel regions prepared by the India Meteorological

Department. (i) An e-Atlas on Cyclones and Depressions (C&D’s) having many salient features as generation of

Tracks, several types of C&D’s statistics have been developed and also circulated to Panel Member countries for their use.

(ii) The online version of e-Atlas is available at IMD Website at Cyclone Page under the URL: www.rmcchennaieatlas.tn.nic.in.

(iii) All the annual reports on cyclonic disturbances are available for the period of 1990 onwards in the RSMC, New Delhi website.

For the purpose of making these archives the National Meteorological Services will supply New Delhi with relevant information requested by RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi. On request by a Panel country, the RSMC tropical cyclones, New Delhi will make arrangements to supply these data sets to the Panel Member concerned on a copying cost basis.

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VII-2

In accordance with the directive of the WMO Executive Council (ECXLV), Geneva, July 1993) an international format for the archiving of tropical cyclone data is to be used by all RSMCs with activity specialization in tropical cyclones.

The Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) office of the WMO Secretariat has the responsibility for the maintenance of the format, including assignment of the source codes to appropriate organizations, and authorizing additions and changes.

In the international format given below, the Dvorak T number (Position 3536) and Dvorak CI number (position 3738) will be the ones determined at the centre submitting the data, in the case of the Panel on Tropical Cyclones, by RSMC New Delhi.

Complete historic data in the format given in Annex VII-A will be made available for research applications. RSMC New Delhi will provide such data, to the Director of the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC), USA in this format through WMO.

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ANNEX VII-A-1

GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY DATA SET REPORT FORMAT

Position Content1-9

Cyclone identification code composed by 2 digit numbers in order within the cyclone season, area code and year code. 01 SWI2000 shows the 1st system observed in Southwest Indian Ocean basin during the 2000/2001 season. Area codes are as follows:

ARB = Arabian SeaATL = Atlantic OceanAUB = Australian Region (Brisbane)AUD = Australian Region (Darwin)AUP = Australian Region (Perth)BOB = Bay of BengalCNP = Central North Pacific OceanENP = Eastern North Pacific OceanZEA = New Zealand RegionSWI = Southwest Indian OceanSWP = Southwest Pacific OceanWNP = Western North Pacific Ocean and South China Sea

10-19 Storm Name20-23 Year24-25 Month (0112)26-27 Day (0131)28-29 Hour-universal times (at least every 6 hourly position 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z)30 Latitude indicator:

1 =North latitude;2=South latitude

31-33 Latitude (degrees and tenths)34-35 Check sum (sum of all digits in the latitude)36 Longitude indicator:

1 =West longitude;2=East longitude

37-40 Longitude (degrees and tenths)41-42 Check sum (sum of all digits in the longitude)43 position confidence*

1 = good (<30nm; <55km)2 = fair (3060nm; 55-110km)3 = poor (>60nm; >110km)9 = unknown

Note* Confidence in the center position: Degree of confidence in the center position of a tropical cyclone expressed as the radius of the smallest circle within which the center may be located by the analysis. "position good" implies a radius of less than 30 nm, 55 km; "position fair", a radius of 30 to 60 nm, 55 to 110km; and "position poor", radius of greater than 60 nm, 110km.44-45 Dvorak T number (99 for no report)46-47 Dvorak CI number (99 for no report)48-50 Maximum average wind speed (whole values) (999 for no report).51 Units 1 =kt, 2=m/s, 3=km per hour.52-53 Time interval for averaging wind speed (minutes for measured or derived wind speed, 99 if unknown or estimated).54-56 Maximum Wind Gust (999 for no report)57 Gust Period (seconds, 9 for unknown)58 Quality code for wind reports:

1 =Aircraft or Dropsonde observation2=Over water observation (e.g. buoy)3=Over land observation4=Dvorak estimate5=Other

59-62 Central pressure (nearest hectoPascal) (9999 if unknown or unavailable)63 Quality code for pressure report (same code as for winds)

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ANNEX VII-A-264 Units of length: 1 =nm, 2=km65-67 Radius of maximum winds (999 for no report)68 Quality code for RMW:

1 =Aircraft observation2=Radar with well defined eye3=Satellite with well defined eye4=Radar or satellite, poorly defined eye5=Other estimate

69-71 Threshold value for wind speed (gale force preferred, 999 for no report)72-75 Radius in Sector 1: 315 4576-79 Radius in Sector 2: 45 13580-83 Radius in Sector 3: 135 22584-87 Radius in Sector 4: 225 31588 Quality code for wind threshold

1=Aircraft observations 2=Surface observations 3=Estimate from outer closed isobar 4=Other estimate

89-91 Second threshold value for wind speed (999 for no report)92-95 Radius in Sector 1: 315 4596-99 Radius in Sector 2: 45 135100-103 Radius in Sector 3: 135 225104-107 Radius in Sector 4: 225 315108 Quality code for wind threshold (code as for row 88)10910 Cyclone type:

01 = tropics; disturbance ( no closed isobars) 02= <34 knot winds, <17m/s winds and at least one closed isobar 03= 34-63 knots, 17 32m/s 04= >63 knots, >32m/s 05= extra tropical 06= dissipating 07= subtropical cyclone (non frontal, low pressure system that comprises I initially baroclinic circulation developing over subtropical water) 08= overland 09= unknown

111-112 Source code (2 digit code to represent the country or organization that provided the data to NCDC USA. WMO Secretariat is authorized to assign number to additional participating centers, organizations)

01 RSMC Miami Hurricane Center 02 RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center 03 RSMC Tropical Cyclones New Delhi 04 RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Centre 05 Australian Bureau of Meteorology 06 Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd. 07 RSMC Nandi Tropical Cyclone Centre 08** Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Honolulu 09** Madagascar Meteorological Service 10 ** Mauritius Meteorological Service 11 ** Meteorological Service, New Caledonia 12 Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Honolulu

Note**: no longer usedHeadings 1-19 Cyclone identification code and name;20-29 Date time group;30-43 Best track positions;44-110 Intensity, Size and Type;111-112 Source code.

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