views amidst violence: george varughese
TRANSCRIPT
Surveys as a tool to improve aid in fragile states
The Asia Foundation’s Afghanistan experience
A fragile state environment
Highly dynamic environment; uncertain &unstable
Strained state-society relations; distrust & suspicion
Multiple interests and actors at play; high costs of navigation
Insufficient and unreliable information
Weak local capabilities
Weak physical and transportation infrastructure
Some ways that surveys can help
Capture trends in a dynamic environment, if done over time
Monitor state-society relations over time What matters? Public opinion vs. expert opinion Help capture key issues that are normally sensitive and deeply political Specific issues unique to the state can be studied in depth
Can be a public good and used by multiple actors, where coordination risks and fund flows are high Better inform program design Better inform spending (targeting and resourcing) Test assumptions on key issues As a common baseline to track progress
Build local capacity to provide reliable information
Varying objectives of TAF surveys
Objective Survey1) Inform host government policy-makers and local policy debates
Survey of Public Perceptions of the Mindanao Peace Process (2008)
Local Economic Governance Index (EGI) in 5 countries
Voter surveys in pre-election periods (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Pakistan, among others)
2) Articulate/reflect key concerns of conflict-affected populations
Democracy & Conflict in Southern Thailand
Survey of the Afghan People (2006-11)
3) Inform program design Public perceptions of police (Timor-Leste, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia)
Leaders of Influence surveys (Maldives, Bangladesh)
4) Inform donor strategies or international policy
Survey of the Afghan People (2006-11)
Survey of the Sri Lankan People (2010)
5) Measure impact of programs Community policing pilot program in Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste (2009-11)
Case in point: Survey of the Afghan People
Nationwide quantitative survey conducted annually using a
structured questionnaire among more than 6200 Afghans
6 surveys conducted since baseline in 2006
Findings at http://www.asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/989
Survey decision environment
Pre survey
During survey
Post survey
Some Pre-survey Challenges
Objective (s) of the survey Partnerships For what and with whom
‘Localisation’ (Afghanisation) of the survey Ownership and accountability Objectivity Capacity
Some Challenges during Survey
In general, minimal secondary information available for design In Afghanistan, last census in 1979, partial only No electoral rolls
Questionnaire development Compatibility to other surveys within & outside the context Collaborative inputs Curiosity questions vs. actionable findings
Scale of the fieldwork Weak to nonexistent local capacity Challenges with female interviewers
…Some Challenges during Survey
Weak infrastructure and harsh weather conditions Mountainous terrain & lack of (good) roads Long and harsh winters
Ethno-linguistic sensitivities/closed society Conservatism Insularity
Respondent selection and gender balance Balanced gender coverage at each sample point Travel restrictions for female interviewers
…Some Challenges during Survey
Quality control Added oversight and supervision of field team and data cleaning Backchecks and accompanied interviews
Managing sampling and error Increasing insecurity and inaccessibility Greater replacement of sampling points Error margin can increase
Some Post-Survey and Other Challenges
Analysis and reporting considerations Overstating the findings Interpreting every finding Emphasizing magnitude vs. direction Looking beyond topline findings to in-depth analysis, when to move
along? When to integrate with comparisons to other worldwide surveys
Dissemination plans and the ethics of research Selective data dissemination, suppression of findings Duplicative efforts, sharing of information
…Some Post-Survey and Other Challenges
Risk management Antigovernment elements, local strongmen, competitors Host Government Donors
Way forward: one-off exercise vs. longitudinal – time series Changing objective over time of conducting large scale surveys of
Afghans Disciplined to team, timing, and, quality control costs Choice between parachute survey firm and in-house management
in early years
Pictures from the field
Team training…
The terrain…
Interviews…
Thank You!
Objectives of the Afghan Survey
Use strong social science research to provide credible, policy-
relevant information about public opinion on recent changes and
trends in government performance, public policy, politics and
political processes, and development progress
Build social research capacity in the country
Dealing with outdated population data
Rural sampling -- Combination of PPS and SRS
Urban sampling -- use of maps/locality lists in the absence of
database such as electoral rolls
Innovative field movements for selection of starting points and
households
Building the field team
Extensive training of interviewers & supervisors Questionnaire Sampling procedure- field movements, selection of households Kish grid
‘Train the trainer’ sessions
Mock interviews Female interviewer recruitment in each district of selected sample
point
Innovations
Team of women interviewers recruited locally ‘Mahrams’ for women interviewers
Men and women interviewers in each sampling area
Modifications in Kish selections Women interviewers obtained details of female HH members; men
obtained details of males