views the long and winding road of a grant application

ViEWSPREDICTING CONFLICT

ViEWSThe long and winding road of a grant application

Presentation at Grants Day,Uppsala University

Havard Hegre1,2

1Department of Peace and Conflict ResearchUppsala University

2Peace Research Institute Oslo

November 22, 2018


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The ViEWS project: Research objectives Research objectives

The ViEWS project

Can we forecast future politicalviolence?

Methodological development

Theoretical framework

Data collection

Live forecasting pilot

Monthly updates sinceJune 2018

Forecasts, state-based conflict, December 2018

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The ViEWS project: Research objectives Funding

The ViEWS project

At the Department of Peaceand Conflict Research, UU

http://www.pcr.uu.se/

research/views/

Funded by the EuropeanResearch Council

Simulations performed onresources provided bySNIC/UPPMAX

Forecasts, country level, December 2018

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http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/views/

http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/views/


The ViEWS project: Research objectives Funding

The forecasting problem

Forecast incidence of organizedpolitical violence

Onset as well ascontinuation or deescalation

Up to 36 months into thefuture

Based on data not morethan one month old

All three UCDP forms ofviolence:

state-based armed conflict

one-sided violence

non-state conflict

Forecasts, one-sided violence, December 2018

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The ViEWS project: Research objectives Dependent variables

Dependent variables: UCDP-GED

Global event-based dataset

Uniform coverage, immutablestandards

Hand-coded with someautomatic assistance.

Data 1989–2017 publiclyavailable

Joint UCDP-ViEWS project toproduce monthly updates

Aggregated to our unit ofanalysis

Observed state-based conflict, September 2018

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The ViEWS project: Research objectives Predictors/features

Predictors

Shown here: Distance to borders, distanceto secondary diamond deposits

Conflict history

Lagged dependent variablesTime since conflict events

Population

Population sizePolitical exclusion

Political economy

DemocracyDevelopmentOil

Geographical features

Distance to borders, cities, capitalTerrain (mountains, urban, pasture, etc.)

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The ViEWS project: Research objectives Evaluation

How well do we do? Evaluation

A research project on its own...

Sample classification table

Given ‘optimal threshold’437 of 454 country months withconflict correctly predicted282 of 719 false alarms

ObservedPredicted Pos Neg SumPos 437 282 719Neg 17 1208 1225Sum 454 1490 1944Note. State-based conflict at cm-level, January2015 to December 2017. Accuracy = 0.846,F1 = 0.745, precision = 0.608, recall = 0.963,threshold = 0.126.

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

0 6 12 18 24 30 36Month

AU

RO

C

Multi-threshold metrics

Predictive performance holdsup well over time

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Organization

Organization

Staffing

PI: 60%

Part-time project coordinator

1 Postdoc

2 PhDs

3 Research assistants/programmers

10 research associates

Interns, guests, students

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How did we get there?

How did we get there?

The long and winding road...

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How did we get there? Precursors in publications

Precursors: own published work

Quantitative work on the correlatesof internal armed conflict

Greatly inspired by Nils PetterGleditsch

Strong positive relationship betweenpoverty and conflict

At PRIOs Centre for the Studyof Civil War

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00.1

%0.2

5%0.5

%1%

2%4%

Prop

ortio

n of p

opula

tion k

illed i

n batt

le, 19

65-2

013

200 100 50 25 12Poverty in 1965: Infant mortality rate

10 / 16


How did we get there? Precursors in publications

Precursors: own published work

‘Simulations’ in Collier et al.(2003) Breaking the ConflictTrap

Cost-benefit analyses in Collieret al. (2008) CopenhagenConsensus challenge paper

Hegre et al. (2010/2013)‘Predicting Armed Conflict’

111

W H Y I S C I V I L WA R S O C O M M O N ?

Figure 4.13a The conflict trap in 2020: annual flows into and outof conflict

High income,at peace

(32 countries)

Active conflict(15 countries)

Postconflict(11 countries)

Successfuldevelopersat peace

(66 countries)

0.2

0.050.7

0.70.2

Stronglydeveloping Stagnant

0.91.9

Marginalizedcountriesat peace

(32 countries)

Figure 4.13b The conflict trap in 2050: annual flows into and outof conflict

Note: The simulation assumes the same growth rates as in figure 4.8. Numbers next to the ar-rows indicate the number of countries per year that move between the different states of conflictin the self-sustaining state. Numbers in boxes indicate the self-sustaining number of countries ineach conflict state. See appendix 1 for fuller coverage.Source: Based on a revised version of Collier and Hoeffler (2002c).

High income,at peace

(32 countries)

Active conflict(13 countries)

Postconflict(9 countries)

Successfuldevelopersat peace

(70 countries)

0.1

0.050.7

0.70.1

Stronglydeveloping Stagnant

0.81.6

Marginalizedcountriesat peace

(32 countries)11 / 16


How did we get there? Earlier grant applications

Earlier grant applications

Funder/title FateResearch Council of

Norway, 2007Prediction and Policy Evaluation in

Conflict ResearchNot funded (excellent

reviews)

Research Council ofNorway, 2008

Prediction and Policy Evaluation inConflict Research

Not funded (rottenreviews)

ECRP, 2009Prediction and Policy Evaluation in

Conflict ResearchNot funded

European ResearchCouncil, 2009

Prediction and Policy Evaluation inConflict Research

Discouraged; notsubmitted


Political Institutions and ArmedConflict

Not funded

Research Council ofNorway, 2009

Political Institutions and ArmedConflict

Funded

12 / 16


How did we get there? Developing the concept

While waiting...

Develop and test methodology

Collect/organize data

Develop long-range forecasts

Publish two forecasting articles

Strengthen relevant research network

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2025 2050 2075 2100Year

Expe

cted s

hare

of co

untrie

s with

arme

d con

flict

Scenario

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

World Average

13 / 16


How did we get there? Developing the concept

... new opportunities emerge

Professor in Peace and ConflictResearch, Uppsala University meantnew opportunities:

UCDP: dataset and aninfrastructure

DPCR: Large, coherent researchcommunity

Time to redevelop the projectaround UCDP

Develop team in Uppsala

Write a pilot, present

14 / 16


How did we get there? Final grant applications

Later grant applications

Funder Title Fate

EU Horizon 2020, 2015DIRECT: Dynamic Integrated Risk

Evaluation of Conflict and TransitionDiscouraged

RiksbankensJubileumsfond, 2015

ViEWS – a political ViolenceEarly-Warning System

Not funded

Vetenskapsradet, 2015 ViEWS Not funded

RiksbankensJubileumsfond, 2016

ViEWS Not funded


ViEWS Funded

15 / 16


Conclusions

Conclusions

Follow your nose

Seek out complementary research environments

Carry out pilot studies

Don’t give up

16 / 16

views the long and winding road of a grant application

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