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VDOT TRAVEL MODELING CONTACTS

� Central Office Paul Agnello

(804) 786-2531 Paul.Agnello@VDOT.Virginia.gov

� Northern Virginia

Bill Mann (703) 383-2211

Bill.Mann@.VDOT.Virginia.gov

KEY TRAVEL MODELING WEBSITES

� VDOT Travel Modeling (Available for VDOT intranet users only)

http://insidevdot/sites/Transportation_and_MobilityPlanningDivision/TravelDemand

ModelingProgram/default.aspx

� Hampton Roads PDC Travel Modeling

http://www.hrpdc.org/transport/travdemand.shtml

� Metropolitan Washington COG

Travel Modeling http://www.mwcog.org/transportation/activ

ities/models/

� FHWA Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP)

http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/

Virginia’s Transportation Modeling Newsletter

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FHWA Data Mining Workshop a Success! About twenty state and planning district commission staff attended the 1.5 day May 2nd-3rd FHWA Data Mining Workshop held in Northern Virginia.

Large Turnout for Executive Session on Maximizing Your Transportation Planning Data

Over fifty state, planning district commission, local, and university staff attended the May 1st Executive Session on Maximizing Your Transportation Planning Data in Northern Virginia. The session focused on how to better utilize several Federal data sources: Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP), American Community Survey (ACS), and National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS), to support transportation planning in Virginia. The session was moderated by FHWA and VDOT and featured presentations by Dr. Mary Lynn Tischer (VDOT), Ed Christopher (FHWA), Heather Contrino (FHWA), Rob Case (Hampton Roads PDC), Andy Pickard (Hampton Roads PDC), Ed Azimi (VDOT), and Nanda Srinivasan (FHWA contractor).

Rob Case from HRPDC giving presentation on using NHTS to increase the mobility of non drivers

VTM SPOTLIGHT

BILL MANN, P.E. Senior Transportation Engineer, VDOT Northern Virginia District

Bill Mann’s career in transportation planning has spanned more than four decades and taken him all over the world. Bill was born and raised in Richmond to a prominent family. Bill’s great grandfather started the T.W. Wood & Sons Company, which grew to become the largest seed supplier in the south. Bill grew up in his grandfather’s house at 2702 Monument Avenue and graduated from Virginia Tech. After college, Bill went into the Navy for three years and served as a naval officer at Norfolk Naval base. After the navy, Bill went into the construction business for a short time, but did not like it. At this time, Bill’s uncle, who was then the Executive Director of the Southeastern Virginia Regional Planning Commission (now the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission), invited him to work for the PDC as a transportation planning intern. Bill liked his experience and decided to pursue a career in transportation engineering. He first went to Yale University where he completed a one-year certificate program in traffic engineering. He then earned a master’s degree in transportation engineering from Northwestern University.

see VTM SPOTLIGHT. page 3

2 see NEWS BRIEFS. page 3

NEWS BRIEFS

o David Kroeger joined the Northern Virginia District Travel Demand Modeling Group in April and is a Virginia Tech graduate. Welcome David!

o Greg McFarland is leaving Northern Virginia District Travel Demand Modeling Group on June 19. He will join NVTC (Northern Virginia Transportation Commission) as their Transit Project Manager. We will miss you Greg!

2

Proposed U.S. 2010 Census Bureau Criteria Would Significantly Increase TAZ

Every ten years, the Federal government provides States and MPOs the opportunity to define census boundaries and transportation analysis zones (TAZs) for their areas. Census boundaries are defined through a program called the Participant Statistical Areas Program (PSAP). TAZs are defined through a program called TAZ-Up using the results of the PSAP. The U.S. Census Bureau initiated the process of the PSAP program in the federal register on April 6, 2007 by releasing the new proposed 2010 criteria for census tracts, block groups, county divisions, and designated places. The criteria regarding block groups are typically the most relevant to transportation planners and travel demand modelers. The differences between 2000 versus proposed 2010 Census Criteria for block groups are significant and are shown in the table below. The proposed 2010 criteria would double the minimum allowable population for a block group from 600 to 1,200. The proposed criteria would also create a new minimum threshold for household of 480. Additionally, the new proposed criteria would set the minimum size of a TAZ to that for a block group.

Proposed U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Block Group Criteria

Criteria 2000 2010

Population Minimum 600 1,200

Households Minimum None 480

Minimum TAZ Size linked to Minimum Block Group Size No Yes

These proposed 2010 Census criteria changes would have far reaching consequences to transportation planning and travel demand modeling across the United States by effectively more than doubling TAZ size. The figure below shows the percentage of TAZs by Virginia urban area that would not meet the proposed criteria. Overall, about 75% of TAZs for urban areas in Virginia would be too small in terms of population and/or households to meet the proposed Census criteria.

Ed Christopher (left) co-teach with Nanda Srinivasan (right) in the training class

Participants listened to instructors Ed Christopher and Nanda Srinivasan provide training on using Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP), American Community Survey (ACS), and National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS) data. The instructors demonstrated the benefits and limitations of using each data source to support transportation planning activities. The training was PC based and enabled participants to learn interactively in a hands-on training environment.

VTM SPOTLIGHT (continued)

After graduation, Bill worked as a transportation planning consultant for several years specializing in travel demand modeling. Bill developed models in many parts of the United States including some of the first models for the Hampton Roads region. He eventually joined the distinguished Alan M. Voorhees consulting firm and worked with Gordon Shultz and a number of other well known travel demand modeling staff. With Voorhees, Bill developed models all over the world including Caracas, Venezuela and San Paulo, Brazil.

After several years in the transportation consulting business, Bill became one of the travel demand modeling managers with the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) and helped developed the first regional travel demand models for the Washington, DC area in the 1970’s. Bill worked for MWCOG for twenty years before joining VDOT in 1992 to head the newly formed Northern Virginia Modeling team. Bill leads a team of six technical staff who are responsible for traffic forecasting in the Northern Virginia District area.

Bill has seen many changes in transportation planning and travel demand modeling over the years and is excited to see many young people coming into the transportation profession. In comparing modeling now with when he started his career, Bill says, “Modeling is much more sophisticated and complicated than it used to be, there are more federal requirements, and there is much more emphasis on trying to get exact numbers.” Bill hopes that some simpler modeling approaches will continue in the future to provide more time for transportation planning analysis.

Bill has two children and lives in Vienna. His hobbies include gardening, reading, and managing several rental properties.

State DOTs and MPOs have until July 5th to submit comments to the U.S. Census Bureau regarding the proposed changes. For more information, visit the PSAP website at: http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/psapcriteria.html .

Percent of Existing TAZs by Virginia Urban Area

That Do Not Meet Proposed Census Population Criteria

43%

57%

74%

95%

70%

91% 93%90%

97% 95%

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60%

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Three Different Levels of TAZs Planned in 2010

Planners who have always wanted to have more than one level of TAZs defined by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) will finally get their wish in 2010. Three different levels of TAZs are planned in 2010: Small, Medium, and Large with the proposed population thresholds shown in the table below.

TAZ Types and Population Thresholds: 2000 vs. Proposed 2010

Minimum Population Threshold TAZ Type

2000 Proposed 2010

Small: Traditional TAZ None 1,200

Medium: District TAZ Not Defined 4,000

Large: Super-District TAZ Not Defined 20,000

The Small TAZ level is intended to be the general purpose TAZ level traditionally used in most urban areas for travel demand modeling. The Medium TAZ level is intended to be a new District TAZ level of geography which could be used to perform district level analysis in urban models and as general purpose TAZs in statewide models. The large TAZ level is intended to be a new Super-District TAZ level for regional or statewide analysis. The TAZ-Up process through which State DOTs and MPOs will define 2010 TAZ for all three levels is planned to begin in late 2008 and conclude by late 2009. The next Census Transportation Planning Package will use the new 2010 TAZ geography and is planned to be released in 2011.

NEWS BRIEFS (continued)

o Citilabs CUBE 5.0 Release Pushed Back: Citilabs is planning to release a Highway Only version of CUBE 5.0 by mid-July, but the release of the full version for Highway and Transit has been pushed back to late Fall, 2007 instead of this July.

o NHTS Add-On surveys are planned for Virginia starting in early 2008. More details on this process will be forthcoming this summer.

3

Highlights of Virginia Travel Demand Modeling Activities

Highlights of Virginia Travel Demand Modeling Activities

4

VTM Member Profile - Northern Virginia District TPD Modeling Team

History In November, 1987, Governor Gerald Baliles initiated the development of a Long Range Plan (2010) for Northern Virginia (NOVA) through a cooperative planning process that became known as the “Subregional” planning process. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments was hired to do all the traffic modeling for this study. Bill Mann, working for MWCOG at the time managed all the highway modeling and forecasting for this effort. The final report produced the Northern Virginia 2010 Transportation Plan. In 1989, the NOVA – Transportation Planning Division (TPD) was created as part of the continuing process recommended in the Transportation Plan to show that VDOT and local governments are fully committed to continuing the NOVA subregional transportation planning activities. Over the next three years Ed Azimi, Cina Dabestani (recently transferred to another team), Bahram Jamei, Mazen Dawoud and Bill Mann were hired to continue the modeling work as a complete independent modeling team.

Degrees/Licenses The current team consists of the same four persons just mentioned plus two recently hired employees, Greg McFarland and David Kroeger. Four have master’s degrees, one has a PhD degree and one is working on a master’s degree. Two have Professional Engineer Licenses in Virginia. They do state of the art modeling and have published numerous articles in Journals of TRB, ITE, ASCE and even a chapter in an ASCE handbook. One of their published articles was translated into Japanese and published in one of their Journals. Current Work The NOVA TPD modeling team has several technical responsibilities: travel forecasting, modeling, intersection forecasts, environmental travel data modeling for air and noise analyses, Census data development and analysis, model development and calibration, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) and consultant model review, management of consultant studies, quick response research, computer program development, and local jurisdiction support for development of their models.

Examples of Recent Work Some of the more recent studies conducted by the TPD modeling team were: highway impacts of putting 22,000 jobs at Fort Belvoir, adding 28,000 households in southern Loudoun County, adding another Potomac River crossing, and reviewing consultant’s report on adding HOT lanes to the Beltway and to I-95/395. Other studies the Team did were modeling the complex Springfield Interchange, another Occoquan crossing and a transportation plan for Purcellville. The Team also developed ENTRADA, a computer program to develop environmental traffic data; and the Congestion Index Model, to determine the amount of congestion relief each element in the CLRP or SYP could achieve, which could then be used for prioritizing construction funds.

No. District/MPO Area Contact(s) Current/Recent News

1 Washington, DC Bahram Jamei

The current MWCOG Version 2.1 model constrains VMT growth so that it grows at about the same rate as household growth for areas outside the 10-mile square, no longer faster than household growth rates. The new Version 2.2 model is planned to constrain VMT growth even more.

2 Northern Virginia Bill Mann I-95/I-395 PPTA Study

3 Hampton Roads Jeremy Raw Andy Pickard

Used model for 2030 Long Range Plan development.

4 Richmond Jeremy Raw Model setups and runs for Richmond Regional Mass Transit Analysis. Model enhancements made in preparation for Long Range Plan.

5 Tri-Cities Jeremy Raw Air Quality Conformity analysis for Long Range Plan Amendment. Model enhancements made in preparation for Long Range Plan.

6 Fredericksburg Nelson Newton

Continue to prepare model inputs for Long Range Plan work. I-95/I-395 PPTA Study The Corradino Group is in the process of re-validation of the 2000 model in preperation for the 2035 CLRP update.

7 Roanoke Nelson Newton

The current model is being used as part of a Route 221 Corridor Study in Roanoke County