v.n. maslova, e.n. voskresenskaya, e.v. dunaevskaya 10 september 2012 Łódź, poland joint amo and...
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V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, E.V. Dunaevskaya
10 September 2012Łódź, Poland
Joint AMO and PDO manifestations in the winter wheat yield in Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
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Aim to study how Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) influence on low-frequency variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine
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Data sets Regional winter wheat yield (1945–2008) in
different agroclimatic zones of Ukraine: woodland, forest steppe, steppe
Monthly AMO and PDO indices (1990–2008)
Long-term series of monthly in-situ precipitation & temperature (1990–2008)
Frequency and depth of cyclones and anticyclones (1948–2006) over Ukraine obtained using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets
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Agroclimatic zones of Ukraine
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Winter wheat yield in 1945-2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
45
19
48
19
51
19
54
19
57
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
Yie
ld, c
entn
ers/
ha
Woodland
Forest-steppe
Steppe
Ukraine
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Regional factors
tair and p are mean values for the
vegetation period of winter wheat
92,0;15,023,1 2 RptY airWL
82,0;28,004,2 2 RptY airFS
89,0;48,084,0 2 RptY airS
89,0;6,804,0 2 RaсY fdUkrcd – depth of cyclonesaf – frequency of anticyclones
AIR TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION
SINOPTIC SYSTEMS (CYCLONES & ANTICYCLONES)
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Global factors
[http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/05/14/timescale-of-the-pdo-nao-and-amo/]
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation
[http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/]
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Winter wheat yield (average for Ukraine)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
aWinter wheat yield - WOODLAND
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
a
Winter wheat yield - FOREST-STEPPE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
aWinter wheat yield - STEPPE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Years
Ano
mal
y, s
igm
a
1970
1965-1970
1965
Climate shift in XX century
The climate shift in 1965–75 was found in the variability of winter wheat yield
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0
10
20
30
40
Ukraine Woodland Forest-steppe Steppe
Yie
ld, c
en
tne
r/h
a
AMO+
AMO-
Association with
AMO
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
An
om
aly,
sig
ma
Detrended winter wheat yield
AMO index
R=-0,6
Average long-term differences
Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level
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0
10
20
30
40
Ukraine Woodland Forest-steppe Steppe
Yie
ld, c
en
tne
r/h
a
PDO-
PDO+
Association with
PDO
Average long-term differences
-2
-1
0
1
2
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Res
idu
als,
sig
ma
-1
0
1
PD
O in
dex
PDO index
Standardized residuals
R=0,4
Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level
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What are the joint AMO and PDO manifestations?
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
00
19
04
19
08
19
12
19
16
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
32
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
An
om
aly
,sig
ma
Precipitation (Woodland)
PDO-AMO index
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
19
00
19
04
19
08
19
12
19
16
19
20
19
24
19
28
19
32
19
36
19
40
19
44
19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
An
om
aly
, sig
ma
Air temperature (Sevastopol)
PDO-AMO index
PDO-AMO index as an indicator of joint influence
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Joint AMO & PDO manifestations
-2
-1
0
1
2
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
An
om
aly,
sig
ma
Winter wheat yield
PDO-AMO index
R=-0,57
3,0;785,0 2 RIY AMOPDOUkr
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Conclusions
The climatic shift in 1965–75 associated with multidecadal processes in the ocean-atmosphere system was found in the variability winter wheat yield in Ukraine
During AMO+ or PDO- phases the winter wheat yield is 10–15 centners/ha higher than during AMO- or PDO+ phase
The joint influence of AMO and PDO determines about 30% of the variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine
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THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!