volatality in indian stock market

8/3/2019 Volatality in Indian Stock Market

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Vivekanand Degree College

INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH TOPIC

Background of research study

In Education sector job satisfaction of the faculty members play a vital role.

Employees attitude towards their job is an important issue. Researching this issue

will reduce turnover, absenteeism and increase levels of productivity. Thereby

creating a win-win situation for both the employee and institute. Such a bacround

has resulted in the current research

Indian Education sector

Education accounts for about $3 trillion of the world's economy. TheGeneral Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), a hotly debated agreement of the WTO (World Trade Organization), is aimed at increasing trade liberalizationinternationally, while including education' as a service. In absolute terms, India hasthe third largest number of higher education enrolments after China and US.On a close scrutiny of the cause and effect relationship, one can infer that the lack

of even minimal HR initiatives in the education segment is resulting in moreserious HR problems to the industry which, if unattended, may derail theeconomys progress.

Statement of the problem

Job satisfaction is one of the best-researched in work and organizationalpsychology for at least two reasons. Job satisfaction is relevant for all those whoare interested in the subjective evaluation of working conditions such asresponsibility, task variety or communication requirements because job satisfactionis strongly caused by such conditions. Job satisfaction is also a major concernwhenever outcome variables such as absenteeism, fluctuation, organizationalinefficiency such as counter productive behavior or sabotage are dealt with because

INTRODUCTION


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Stock exchanges to some extent play an important role as indicators, reflecting the

performance of the country's economic state of health. Stock market is a place where

securities are bought and sold. It is exposed to a high degree of volatility; prices fluctuate

within minutes and are determined by the demand and supply of stocks at a given time.

Stockbrokers are the ones who buy and sell securities on behalf of individuals and institutions

for some commission. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is the authorized

body, which regulates the operations of stock exchanges, banks and other financial

institutions. The past performances in the capital markets especially the securities scam by

Harshad Mehta has led to tightening of the operations by SEBI. In addition the

international trading and investment exposure has made it imperative to better operational

efficiency. With the view to improve, discipline and bring greater transparency in this sector,

constant efforts are being made and to a certain extent improvements have been made. As the

condition of capital markets are constantly improving, it has started drawing attention of lot

more people than before. On the career related aspects, professionals have opportunities to

choose from for a wide range of jobs available in a number of organizations in this sector and

one can expect to have good times ahead of him.

1.1 INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET OVERVIEW

1.1.1 Evolution

Indian Stock Markets are one of the oldest in Asia. Its history dates back to nearly

200 years ago. The earliest records of security dealings in India are meager and

obscure. The East India Company was the dominant institution in those days and

business in its loan securities used to be transacted towards the close of theeighteenth century.

Thus, at present, there are totally twenty-one recognized stock exchanges in India

excluding the Over The Counter Exchange of India Limited (OTCEI) and the National

Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSEIL).

1.1.2 Trading Pattern of the Indian Stock Market


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6

Trading in Indian stock exchanges is limited to listed securities of public limited

companies. They are broadly divided into two categories, namely, specified securities

(forward list) and non-specified securities (cash list). Equity shares of dividend paying,

growth-oriented companies with a paid-up capital of at least Rs.50 million and a market

capitalization of at least Rs.100 million and having more than 20,000 shareholders are,

normally, put in the specified group and the balance in nonspecified group.

Two types of transactions can be carried out on the Indian stock exchanges: (a) spot

delivery transactions "for delivery and payment within the time or on the date stipulated

when entering into the contract which shall not be more than 14 days following the date of

the contract: and (b) forward transactions "delivery and payment can be extended by further

period of 14 days each so that the overall period does not exceed 90 days from the date of the

contract". The latter is permitted only in the case of specified shares. The brokers who carry

over the outstanding pay carry over charges (cantango or backwardation), which are usually

determined by the rates of interest prevailing.

A member broker in an Indian stock exchange can act as an agent, buy and sell

securities for his clients on a commission basis and also can act as a trader or dealer as a

principal, buy and sell securities on his own account and risk, in contrast with the practice

prevailing on New York and London Stock Exchanges, where a member can act as a jobber

or a broker only.

The nature of trading on Indian Stock Exchanges are that of age old conventional

style of face-to-face trading with bids and offers being made by open outcry. However, there

is a great amount of effort to modernize the Indian stock exchanges in the very recent times.

1.1.3 Over The Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI)

The traditional trading mechanism prevailed in the Indian stock markets gave way to

many functional inefficiencies, such as, absence of liquidity, lack of transparency, unduly

long settlement periods and benami transactions, which affected the small investors to a great

extent. To provide improved services to investors, the country's first ring less, scrip less,

electronic stock exchange - OTCEI - was created in 1992 by country's premier financial

institutions - Unit Trust of India, Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India,

Industrial Development Bank of India, SBI Capital Markets, Industrial Finance Corporation


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of India, General Insurance Corporation and its subsidiaries and Can Bank Financial

Services.

Trading at OTCEI is done over the centers spread across the country. Securities traded

on the OTCEI are classified into:

Listed Securities - The shares and debentures of the companies listed on the OTC can

be bought or sold at any OTC counter all over the country and they should not be listed

anywhere else

Permitted Securities - Certain shares and debentures listed on other exchanges and

units of mutual funds are allowed to be traded

Initiated debentures - Any equity holding at least one-lakh debentures of particular

scrip can offer them for trading on the OTC.

OTC has a unique feature of trading compared to other traditional exchanges. That

is, certificates of listed securities and initiated debentures are not traded at OTC. The

original certificate will be safely with the custodian. But, a counter receipt is

generated out at the counter, which substitutes the share certificate and is used for

all transactions.

In the case of permitted securities, the system is similar to a traditional stock

exchange. The difference is that the delivery and payment procedure will be

completed within 14 days.

Compared to the traditional Exchanges, OTC Exchange network has the following

advantages:

_ OTCEI has widely dispersed trading mechanism across the country, which

provides greater liquidity and lesser risk of intermediary charges.

_ Greater transparency and accuracy of prices is obtained due to the screenbased

scrip less trading._ since the exact price of the transaction is shown on the computer screen, the

investor gets to know the exact price at which s/he is trading.

_ Faster settlement and transfer process compared to other exchanges.

_ In the case of an OTC issue (new issue), the allotment procedure is

completed in a month and trading commences after a month of the issue closure,

whereas it takes a longer period for the same with respect to other exchanges.

Thus, with the superior trading mechanism coupled with information transparencyinvestors are gradually becoming aware of the manifold advantages of the OTCEI.


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1.1.4 National Stock Exchange (NSE)

With the liberalization of the Indian economy, it was found inevitable to lift the Indian

stock market trading system on par with the international standards. On the basis of

the recommendations of high-powered Pherwani Committee, Industrial Development

Bank of India, Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Industrial

Finance

Corporation of India, all Insurance Corporations, selected commercial banks and

others incorporated the National Stock Exchange in 1992.

Trading at NSE can be classified under two broad categories:

(a) Wholesale debt market and

(b) Capital market.

Wholesale debt market operations are similar to money market operations -

institutions and corporate bodies enter into high value transactions in financial

instruments such as government securities, treasury bills, public sector unit bonds,

commercial paper, certificate of deposit, etc.

There are two kinds of players in NSE:

(a) Trading members and

(b) Participants.

Recognized members of NSE are called trading members who trade on behalf of

themselves and their clients. Participants include trading members and large players

like banks who take direct settlement responsibility.

Trading at NSE takes place through a fully automated screen-based trading

mechanism, which adopts the principle of an order-driven market. Trading members

can stay at their offices and execute the trading, since they are linked through acommunication network. The prices at which the buyer and seller are willing to

transact will appear on the screen. When the prices match the transaction will be

completed and a confirmation slip will be printed at the office of the trading member.

NSE has several advantages over the traditional trading exchanges. They are as

follows:

_ NSE brings an integrated stock market trading network across the nation.


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_ Investors can trade at the same price from anywhere in the country since

inter-market operations are streamlined coupled with the countrywide access to the

securities.

_ Delays in communication, late payments and the malpractices prevailing in

the traditional trading mechanism can be done away with greater operational

efficiency and informational transparency in the stock market operations, with the

support of total computerized network.

Unless stock markets provide professionals service, small investors and foreign

investors will not be interested in capital market operations. And capital market being

one of the major sources of long-term finance for industrial projects, India cannot

afford to damage the capital market path. In this regard NSE gains vital importance in

the Indian capital market system.

1.1.5 Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE) - Sensex

For the premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India,

128 years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since

1875 when 318 persons became members of what today is called "The Stock

Exchange, Mumbai" by paying a princely amount of Re1.

Since then, the country's capital markets have passed through both good and bad

periods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Till the decade of

eighties, there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock

market. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock index

that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market.

SENSEX is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally accepted

construction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a basket of 30 constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative

companies. The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The

index is widely reported in both domestic and international markets through print as

well as electronic media.

The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization"

methodology but was shifted to the free-float methodology with effect from

September 1, 2003. The "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology of indexconstruction is regarded as an industry best practice globally. All major index


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providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float

methodology.

Due to is wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; SENSEX is regarded to be

the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides

the time series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small

wonder, the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands

in the country.

The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade gone by.

Right from early nineties the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of

various bull and bear runs. The SENSEX captured all these events in the most

judicial manner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian stock market

through SENSEX.

RESEARCH DESIGN


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Title: Volatility in Indian Stock Market

Objectives:

To study volatility in Indian stock market while taking SENSEX of Bombay stock

exchange as a source of secondary data which broadly represent Indian stock market

along with NIFTY of National stock exchange.

To study the factors which are making Indian stock market volatile. To furnish institutional material relevant for understanding the environment in which

stock market fluctuation are occurring.

Scope:

This study can be used by investors, traders and other professionals as a Supplement to their

own research.

Hypothesis :

This is the exploratory research which tries to shows the factors which are making stock

market volatile.

Any fluctuation in foreign market has more effect on Indian stock market than that of

domestic market.

In the given volatile economic conditions, the market is efficient to any news and

information.

Sources of data :

Data used in this study is of secondary in nature. Sensex and Nifty is taken as a

source of information which widely describes Indian stock market. Here monthly

prices of both indexes are taken for the study purpose.

Limitations of the study:

The main limitation of the study was time constraint


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COMPANY PROFILE

Share khan is a retail broking arm of s.s kantilal ishwarlal investors services pvt

ltd,an organization with more than8 decades of trust and credibility in stock market .sharekhan ltd (formally sski investors services pvt ltd ) was prometed by mr.shripal.s morakhianad mr.shreyas .s morakhia.it is currently indiaslargest broking house.ti is a member of thestock exchnges,mumbai.it is a depository paricipant of nsdl and csdl . Its busniess includesstock broking, depository services, portfolio management and derivates.

The companys corespecialty lies in its retail distribution with a large network of branchesi.e. 519 share shops (retail shops) in 170 cities in india and sub- broker/authorized persons.Tis strength lays in its investment research capabilities. its research division has several

analysts continuously monitoring global, national and economy in general ,the sectors andcompanies they research which helps them if offerings quality research and advice to theclients.

Nature of business carried:

Share khan is a stock broking company. The company offers a complete range of pre trade,trade and post trade services on the BSE (Bombay stock exchange) and NSE (national stockexchanges).

Whether the client come in to the companys conventionally located offices and trade in adedicated environment or issue instruction over the phone, our highly trained team andsophisticated equipment ensure smooth transaction and prompt

Investment Advisory services Facilitation services to retail investors, corporate. Depository services Investment option includes:

1. Online trading (includes equity, derivates)

2 .commodities trading

3. Mutual funds

4. Portfolio management services

Share khan branches are conceptualized to be place where investors can come in contactwith investment opportunities in an atmosphere of convenience and comfort .our servicesare available through our network of 510 share shops spanning 170 major towns and cities

in the country.


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Professional seeks to educate clients and their confusion by custom an investment planaccording to the needs of clients and is also today a part of companys induction programadvising employees on how to plan their investments.

Vision:

Vision refers to the category of intentions that are broad all inclusive and forward thinking.A vision describers aspiration for the future without specifying the means that will be usedto achieve those desired ends.

Share khan practises customer centric approach to be the leading broking firm. Ourcompany vision is

To be the top most company for providing investment advisory and financialplanning services in india

To be leading investment intermediary for transaction through both online andoffline medium.

Mission:

A vision becomes more tangible in the form of a mission statement. Such statement canverbalize the beliefs and the directions of the organisation. Most mission statement is morespecific than anyones visionary thinking but they are still hardly concrete direction foraction. Therefore, a mission statement tries to make vision more specific.

To educate and empower the individual investor to make better investment decisionthrough quality advice and superior service.

Educate & Empower

1. Research backed advice which is easy to understand, retail specific and discipline.

2. Total equity solution for the entire investment process

3. Relationship management


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Superior services

1. Integrity

2. Transparency

3. Professionalism

4. information-product, news, operations

5. Hassle free trading

6. Enjoyable experience

Milestone of SSKI:

1922:the SSKI started its operation in stock broking 1922:the SSKI became the first member in the BSE as institutional broker 1984:ventured into corporate finance 2002:the site was launched on February 8 th in online trading

2002:the next generation technology product speed trade was launched ohm April17 th

2002:theadvanced technology on the online business speed trade plus waslaunched on October 28 tie for derivating trading

2006:the SSKI crossed US $8 billion of private equity dea

Achievments Of Sharekhan :

Rated among the top 20 wired companies along with reliance, HLL, Infosys ,etc bybusiness today , January 2004 edition

Awarded top domestic brokerage house four times by euro money and Asia money Pioneers of online trading in India amongst the top3 online trading websites from

India. Most preferred financial destination among online broking customers Winners of best financial website award Indias most preferred brokers within 5 years.awaaz consumers award 2005s

Future Plans:

2,00,000 plus retail customers being through centralized call centres/web solutions

Branches /semi branches servicing affluent /regressive traders through high skillfinancial advisor


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250 independent Investment manager/franchisee servicing 50,000 highly valuedclients

New initiatives portfolio management services and commodities trading

Ownership Pattern:

The shareholders of SSSKI investor pvt ltd are shripal morkhia,mr.shreyas morkhia ,andforeign private equity funds and keys employees of the company. The key promoter of thecompany is shirpal morkhia who as on march 31,2005 along with his family owns 55.47% of the paid ip capital of the company and the remaining balance i.e. 54.53%isHSBC,CARLYE,and INTEL PACIFIC.

Infrasructure Facilities:

SHARE KHAN Outlets are designed to be places where retail investors can come in touchinvestment opportunities in an atmosphere of convince and comfort. The look and feel of the offices across india projects a consistent branch image for the company .the feature thatenable a unique facility for retailing financial services include among other.

PRODUCT PROFILE

The share khan provides trade execution facility for equity, commodity backed withinvestment and derivatives.

Equity trading

Equity trading a product which represents ownership capital. Those shares of the company,which are listed in NSE and BSE, can be purchased and sold through brokers.

Commodity trading

It comprises of raw material and products that can be traded on special commodityexchanges across the country. The share is founder of two major commodity exchanges, themix and codex and offers trading facility for the following commodities and both theseexchanges:

Bullion: gold and sliver Oil and oil seed: castor ,soya rapeseed/mustard oil, crude palm oil, RBD palmolein Soft commodities :cotton Spices and plantation: pepper and rubber


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Derivatives trading

Derivatives are product which derives their values from the underlying asset or securities in

a contractual manner. The underlying asset can be Equity, commodity or any other asset

Types of derivates

The most commonly used derivate contract is forward, future and option.

1. Forwards : a forward is customised contract between two entities, where settlementtakes place on a specific date in the future at todays pre agreed price.

2.Futures: a future contract is an agreement between two parties buy and sell an asset at acertain time in the future at certain price. Future contract are special types of forwardcontract in the sense that the former are standardized exchange trade contract

3. Option : options are two types calls and puts. Call gives the buyer the right but not theobligation to buy a given quantity of the underlying asset, e share at given price on orbefore.

Services

Share khan is a complete services orient organization serves a vast range of customers allover India. The trading services are design to offer an easy ,hassle free trading experienceand the customer will be entitle to a host of value added services ,intended to assistinvestment process depending on investors styles. The main services provided by the sharekhan is Depository services, online trading, classic, trade tiger and speed trade plus

Depository services

A depository can be as an institution where the investor can keep their financial asset suchas equities etc., in the dematerialised form and the transaction could be effected on it

On line trading :With a share khan online trading account ,an investor can buy and sell shares through theweb site www.sharekhan.com in an instant .share khan offers three types of online tradingaccount that suits investors trading habits and preferences.
http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/


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An online product offered by share khan is as follows:

Online product s

1. Classic accounts2. Trade tiger3. Speed trade plus

1.classic account

This account allows the client to the trade throughout website and is suitable for the retailinvestors. Our online trading websites also comes with daily trade services that enable youto buy and sell shares by calling their dedicated toll free number. This account for retail

investor who is risk averse and hence prefer to invest in stock selectively or who does notfrequently.

The account opening charge for classic account is 750/- in which client will get the DEMATa/c free for one year, after one year client should pay an annual maintenance of rupees300/- demat account.

2.Trade tiger:

Trade tiger is a next generation online trading product that brings the power of your

brokers terminal to your PC.It is ideal for active traders who transact frequently du ringdays trading session capitalise on the into day price movements .trade tiger is an internetbased application available on a CD, which provides everything a trader needs on onescreen , thereby, reducing the required to execute a trade .

Trade tiger has all the above mentioned features with the power in cash and derivates froma single screen. For this account opening charge is 1000/-.the brokerage charged for both3account is 33%margin and 100%delivery.

Speed trade

A speed trade plus has all the above mention future with an additional functionality of trading in derivatives from the same single screen inter face

Basis of trading:

The NEAT F&O system supports an order driven market, where in orders matchautomatically. Order matching is essential on the basis of security ,its price ,time andquantity .all quantity fields are in units and prices in rupees. The lot size in the futuresmarket is for 200 nifities the exchanging notifies the regular lot size an ticks sizes for eachof the contracts traded in the segment from time to time .when any order enters the


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trading system, it is an active order. It tries to find a match on the other side of the book if itfinds a match ,a trade is generated. If it does not find a match , the order becomes passivesand goes and sits in the respective outstanding order book in the system.

Order type and conditions

The system allows the trading member to enter orders with various conditions attached tothem as per their requirements. This condition is broadly divided into the followingcategories

Time conditions

Day order :a day which is valid for the day on which it is entered . if the order is not

executed during the day, the system cancels the order automatically at the end of the day.

Good till cancelled :it is the order remains in the system until the user cancels it. Themaximum number of days an order can remaining the system is not notified by exchangefrom time to time after which the order is automatically cancelled by the system.

Good till days : an order allows the user to specify the number of days till which the ordershould stay in the system is not executed. The maximum days allowed by the system arethe same as in good till cancelled order

Immediate or canceal : an immediate or cancels order allows user to buy or sell a contractas soon as order is released into the system, failing which the order is cancelled from thesystem .partial match is possible for the order and the unmatched portion of the order iscancelled immediately.

Price condition

Stop loss : this facility allows the user to release an order in to the system , after the marketprice of the security reaches or crosses a threshold prices.

Other condition

Market price: market orders are orders for which no price at the time the orders areentered. For such orders, the system determines the price.

At opening price: price it is the price arrived at by the system after the pre open phase isover.

Trigger price: price at which an order gets triggered from stop-loss book.

Limit price :price of the order after triggering from stop-loss book.


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Services offered by share khan

The following services are offered:

1.trading facilities :

Share khan as a member of NSE&BSE provides both offline and online trading facilitiesnationwide for trading the securities in secondary market to its clients .the companys widenetwork of outlet spread across the country facilities to executives the orders in secondarymarket.

2. derivatitives : (futures and options )

The company also facilitates the trading system for trading in secondary market underfuture and options segment of NSE and BSE . the equity dealers in the company will beeager to give insights into new sets introduction in the Indian Capital Market and option.

3.depository services:

Share khan is a depository participant of national securities depository limited and centraldepository and securities limited.

Share khan will open DE-mat account , which will investors to convert physical certificatesof shares into electronic balances in an account maintained.

4.Margin financing:

In the present rolling settlement scenario,sharekhan understand investors need foradditional capital availability for daily purchaser share. It offers unique facility avail finance,for purchasing shares at very competitive interest rates.

5. IPOs and Mutual funds:

Share khan offers the change of investing in the potentially lucrative IPO market .share khanis a distribution house for all mutual funds . this is news scheme introduced by the companyand it also offers scheme catering to investor with varying risk return profiles

6.stock lending and borrowing:

One can place an order of shares with share khan. It is approved intermediary of thesecurity or lending scheme . these would be sent out the borrowers , these earnings feesfor all investors idle share .thus share fulfils the investor need for borrowing and lending of shares.


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7.equity research:

Share khan has a highly rated research using involved in macroeconomic studies, industry

and company specific equity research. The research teams input will be available as dailytrading calls, quarterly investment picks and long term investment picks, based on thefundamental of particular company and the industry as a whole.

8.trading .

Investor can also trade their securities through this facility by logging into companys website. The virtual world that share khan trading services through.

9. portfolio management services :

Share khan is a registered portfolio manager with SEBI to manage portfolios on behalf of client with a discretionary and non discretionary right . this service is a provision for thosewho may not have the time to manage their stock investment or require the services of company s highly specialized profession team.

10.other services

Free access to investment advices from share khan s research team share khan valueline(a monthly publication with review of recommendations stocks to watch out)

Daily research reports and market review (high noon and eagle eye)

Daily trading calls technical analysis

Cool trading products (daring derivates and market strategy)

Personalised advice

Live management information

Internet based online trading

(Online BSE &NSE execution through BOLT &NEAT terminals)

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION


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Nifty January 2010

Date Open High Low Close

29-jan-10 4866.15 4893.70 4766.00 4882.05

28-jan-10 4863.00 4929.90 4824.95 4867.25

27-jan-10 5008.50 5008.50 4833.05 4853.10

25-jan-10 5034.55 5035.70 4983.05 5007.90

22-jan-10 5094.15 5094.15 4954.85 5036.00

21-jan-10 5220.20 5220.35 5085.45 5094.15

20-jan-10 5226.105256.70 5201.40

5221.70

19-jan-10 5,274.20 5,287.80 5,218.65 5,225.65

18-jan-10 5,253.65 5,292.50 5,228.95 5,274.85

15-jan-10 5,259.90 5,279.85 5,242.45 5,252.20

14-jan-10 5,234.50 5,272.85 5,232.50 5,259.90

13-jan-10 5,212.60 5,239.20 5,169.55 5,233.95

12-jan-10 5,251.10 5,300.50 5,200.95 5,210.40

11-jan-10 5,263.80 5,287.20 5,227.80 5,249.40

08-jan-10 5,264.25 5,276.75 5,234.70 5,244.75

07-jan-10 5,281.80 5,302.55 5,244.75 5,263.10

06-jan-10 5,278.85 5,310.85 5,260.05 5,281.80

05-jan-10 5,277.15 5,288.35 5,242.40 5,277.90

04-jan-10 5,200.90 5,238.45 5,167.10 5,232.20

Sensex on January 2010


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Date open High Low Close

29-jan-10 16,253.82 16,390.31 15,982.08 16,357.96

28-jan-10 16,317.16 16,524.69 16,182.14 16,306.87

27-jan-10 16,708.60 16,708.60 16,230.85 16,289.82

25-jan-10 16,847.70 16,877.77 16,705.56 16,780.4622-jan-10 16,978.36 17,000.33 16,608.09 16,859.68

21-jan-10 17,474.49 17,474.49 17,025.26 17,051.14

20-jan-10 17,486.69 17,590.59 17,425.05 17,474.49

19-jan-10 17,650.82 17 ,664 .86 17,463.78 17,486.06

18-jan-10 17,538.72 17,712.60 17,505.50 17,641.08

15-jan-10 17,604.31 17,639.85 17,529.11 17,554.30

14-jan-10 17,525.71 17,628.04 17,525.71 17,584.87

13-jan-10 17,368.03 17,528.31 17,276.46 17,509.80

12-jan-10 17,534.10 17,612.00 17392.55 17,422.51

11-jan-10 17,724.59 17,776.57 17500.79 17,526.71

08-jan-10 17,603.87 17,658.12 17,508.96 17,540.29

07-jan-10 17,701.97 17,733.34 17,566.54 17,615.72

06-jan-10 17719.47 17790.33 17636.71 17701.13

5-jan-10 17555.77 17729.78 17555.77 17686.24

4-jan-10 17473.45 17582.84 17378.38 17558.73


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NIFTY JANUARY 2010

SENSEX JANUARY

47004750

4800

4850

4900

4950

5000

5050

5100

51505200

5250

5300

5350

5400

Open

High

Low

Close


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16100

16300

16500

16700

16900

17100

17300

17500

17700

17900

0 4 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

0 5 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

0 6 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

0 7 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

0 8 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

0 9 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 0 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 1 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 2 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 3 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 4 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 5 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 6 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 7 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 8 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

1 9 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 0 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 1 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 2 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 3 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 4 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 5 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 6 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 7 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 8 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

2 9 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0

Open

High

Low

Close


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Daily analysis for the month of january

January 1 st

Sensex Jumped 81% Last Year

The Manmohan Singh government and the Reserve Bank of India governor Duvvuri

Subbarao slashed taxes and opened the floodgates of liquidity boosting people morale that

brought back global investors. That saw the benchmark Sensitive Index of the Bombay Stock

Exchange surge 81% during the year, just a shade below the 82% gain in 1991, the year when

Manmohan Singh took charge of the finance ministry under prime minister PV Narasimha

Rao. That year Sensex ended at 1,908 and in 2009, at 17,464. The index had given negative

returns for just 5 years in the last two decades, with it remaining flat in 1996.

One of the most agonising moments was in early January when Mr Ramalinga Raju,

chairman of Satyam Computer Services disclosed an accounting fraud, leading to the stock

crashing more than 85% in a couple of sessions. That incident made the question of

corporate governance in India rear its head once again, after a decade of painful image

building.

For the first time ever, Indian stock markets were shut for soaring unbelievably. Previous

shut downs were only to avoid crashes. The Sensex soared 17% that Monday. Global

investors followed. The tally this year is more than $17 billion of investments, more than

what they took home a year before.

5th January

Nifty upside limit seen at 5300 level

THE Nifty closed at yearly highs and Nifty futures closed at a premium to the spot,

suggesting an upward momentum in the index. The ongoing rally may continue amid

concerns of being overbought, as deep-in-the-money call options open interest (OI) either has

declined or turned out to be negative. Nifty open interest Put Call Ratio (PCR) remained


23/79


close to 1.20 and Nifty volume PCR stood at 1.27. The Call options implied volatility (IV)

remains higher than Put option at around 24%, suggesting higher demand for Call options.

Nifty Call options IV is rising, along with falling Nifty PCR, which can dampen the

sentiment. The Nifty long straddle 5300 strike of the January expiry has reported the lowest

implied volatility for both Call options and Put options, suggesting writing of straddles has

occurred at these levels. This means the Niftys upside could be capped around 5300 levels,

before making a further upmove. Infosys o ptions has attracted a lot of interest ahead of

quarterly numbers on January 12. Usually, stock options IV increases ahead of its quarterly

numbers and falls after the announcement. Currently, 2600 Call option premiums are at

around Rs 80 and Put option premiums at Rs 65. One can buy one lot each at a cost of around

Rs 29,000.

6 th janaury

Sensex hits 23-mth high with 128-pt rise

THE Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark index Sensex on Tuesday surged by over 127

points to touch a 23-month high on sustained buying by funds in heavyweight stocks led bymetals, mostly copper and aluminium stocks.

The Sensex had a gap-up opening of over 171 points and closed the day with a gain of

127.51 points to close at 17,686.24, a level seen in February 2008.

The key index touched the days high of 17,729.78. This is the second consecutive rally of

the market after the first trading session of the year on Monday when the index gained 94

points.

The broader NSEs Nifty also rose by 45.70 points to 5,277.90 , after touching a high of 5,288.35. The rally was mostly attributed to rising interest in metal stocks followed by realty

and technology sector stocks. However, a further fall in the Reliance Industries, which is the

heaviest counter among the Sensex scrips, by Rs 5.

Indias largest copper producer Sterlite gained 4.9% after prices of the metal in London,

New York and Shanghai reached 16-month highs on Monday. Cairn India, an oil explorer,

climbed 3.6% after crude futures in New York reached the highest settlement since October

2008.Biggest aluminium maker in the country Hindalco Industries rose 7.2%, while National


24/79


Aluminium Co jumped 15%. Both stocks rose to their highest in 19 months after Aluminum

Corp of China increased alumina prices.

Godrej Properties rose 9.6% to Rs 537.25 in its debut on stock exchanges on Tuesday. The

company raised Rs 470 crore in an initial share sale at a price of Rs 490 each.

Dr Reddys Laboratories advanced 3.1% to Rs 1,177.45.

Overseas funds bought a net $178.7 million of domestic equities on December 31, taking

their investments in stocks last year to $17.7 billion, the market regulator said on Tuesday.

The purchases by global investors in 2009 matched the record they invested in 2007.

7 th January

The 30-share BSE index closed up 0.08%, or 14.89 points, at 17,701.13 after racing to

17,790.33 early, its highest level since February 28, 2008.

Volume was relatively high for the third consecutive day, indicating longer trading hours

kicked off on Monday were boosting business. In the broader market, gainers led losers in the

ratio of 1.1:1 on volume of 602 million shares.

Energy giant Reliance Industries, which has the highest weight on the Sensex, recovered

1.8% to Rs 1,088.80 after dropping as much over the two previous sessions. Financial stocks

gained as investors were optimistic about their long-term prospects in a growing economy.

Top lender State Bank of India climbed 0.6%, while rival ICICI Bank gained 0.9%. Infosys

shed 1.4% and Wipro lost 1.7%, after rallying 131% and nearly 200%, respectively, since the

start of 2009. Infosys, the No. 2 Indian outsourcer, is set to announce quarterly results on

January 12.

Metal stocks edged lower as investors booked profits after the previous days sharpgains. Tata Steel shed 1.1%, Hindalco dropped 2.5% and Sterlite Industries eased 0.1%. Tata

Power Company rose 4.6% to Rs 1,474.10, taking gains over five sessions to 9.1%, as

investors bet firm thermal coal prices would boo st the companys earnings from its 30%

holding in two Indonesian mines. The 50-share NSE index closed 0.1 percent higher at

5,281.80.


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8 th January

The benchmark indices took a breather in morning trade on the back of weak global cues and

lower US index futures. IT stocks fell for the second straight day, as the rupee surged to its

new 15-month high, backed by large dollar sales by foreign banks. The BSE Sensex and the

NSE Nifty finally closed down by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. The BSE Mid-Cap Index

closed flat, while the Small-Cap Index was up by 0.7%. Among the front liners, Hindalco,

RIL, Tata Steel, Reliance Comm and Bharti Airtel gained between 1-2%, while Tata Motors,

TCS, Grasim, Hero Honda and Infosys lost between 2-3%. In the mid cap segment, GMDC,

Sobha Developers, Aban Offshore, Shree Cement and Omaxe gained between 7-10%, while

Sintex Industries, Pidilite Industries, Mphasis, Guj. NRE Coke and AIA Engineering lost

between 3-6%.

January 9 th

The benchmark Sensex closed above the 16K level to end on a positive note after a volatile

session.

The Sensex closed at 16,042 up 107 points after trading in the range of 16,094 15,862. The

Nifty rose 32 points to settle at 4,792. Among the broader indices - the BSE Midcap and

Smallcap indices gained 0.44% each. Buying interest was seen in technology, cement,

pharma and banking stocks. The breadth was mixed and the volumes were low at Rs 85,059.

Fresh buying interest was seen in IT stocks. Infosys was up 2.7%, Finance Tech was up

6.7%, Wipro up 2.9%, TCS up 1.3% and HCL Tech up 1.2%.

Cement shares showed strong buying interest. Grasim was up 4.6%, ACC up 3.2%, India

Cement up 4%, Ultra Cement up 3.2%.

Govt; PSU stocks were again in limelight today. STC India up 10.6%, Dredging Corp up 9%,

NMDC up 9.4%, ITI Ltd up 7.6%, HMT up 10.2%.


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Banking stocks also led the support. Axis Bank rose 1.5%. SBI and ICICI Bank gained 0.7-

0.9%.

Among the Sensex gainers Grasim was up 4.8%, Acc up 3.2%, Infosys up 2.9% and Reli

Infra up 2%.

And the losers were DLF down 1.5%, Hindalco down 1.4%, Hind Lever down 0.7%.

11 th January

Markets remained range bound today and ended almost flat. The day saw gains in PSU,

Shipping and Realty counters despite benchmark indices remaining under pressure during the

day. The Sensex closed at 17,526 down 14 points after trading in the range of 17,776

17,500. The Nifty shut at 5,249 up 5 points after making an intra-day high of 5,287. The

broader indices outperformed the benchmark indices as the smallcap Index continued its

uptrend. The breadth remained positive. The Jan nifty future ended with 8 points premium.

Today's new listing - MBL Infrastructures closed at Rs 205.75, a premium of 14.3% over its

issue price of Rs 180 per share.

Realty stocks gained in todays trade. The BSE realty index jumped 2.6%. Unitech surged

4.4% and IBREL was up 3%.

Auto and IT counters also closed in the green today. The BSE auto index rose 0.9% and theIT index was also up 0.9%.

In the auto space, Amtek Auto advanced 5.8% and Exide rose 4.7%

In the Sensex pack, DLF was the top gainer. The stock ended up 2.3% at Rs 399. JP Asso and

Grasim gained over 2% each


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RIL, however, was the biggest loser. The stock fell 1.7% to Rs.1,081. RIL raised about Rs

3,465 crore through sale of 3.3 crore treasury stocks of the company (this is the second time

RIL has sold T-stock to raise funds

Markets corrected for the second day and ends lower as profit booking was seen in IT ahead

of Infosys third quarter numbers, telecom, metals, oil & gas exploration and select banking

shares remained under selling pressure. While buying emerged in reality, power and capital

good counters. The Sensex closed at 17,540 down 75 points after trading in the range of

17,658 17,508. The Nifty shut at 5,247 down 15 points after making an intra-day high of

5,276. The broader indices outperformed the benchmark indices as the smallcap Index

continued its uptrend. The breadth remained positive. The Jan nifty future ended with 14

points premium. For the week Nifty ended 0.9% up.

The BSE realty index jumped 3.4 %. DLF was up 4.1%, IRB was up 8.5%, Ibreal estate was

up 3.4%, Unitech up 2.9% and Peninsula Land was up 9.7%.

Technology stocks continued to remain under pressure ahead of Infosys results. Infosys was

down 2.4%, Wipro down 1.5% and Hcl Tech was down 2.3% while Tech Mah was up 2.6%

and Satyam Comp up 4.3%.

In the capital goods space, Siemens was up 2.4%. L&T, ABB, BHEL and Punj Lloyd went

up 0.6-1.7%.

Among Metal stocks, Hindalco slipped 1.06%, Sail down 1.1%, Sterlite Ind down 1.09%, Nat

Alumn down 0.7% and Tata Steel was down 0.2%.

Telecom stocks like Rcom was down 1.6%, Bharit Airtel down 1.3% and MTNL were down1.2%.

Tea stocks came under profit booking. Mcleod Russel was down 6.7%, Jayshree Tea down

3.6% and Harrison Malyalam down 2.7%.

Among the Sensex stocks, DLF was the top gainer up 4.3 %. Sun Pharma and JP Associates

rose more than 2 % each.

Infosys fell 2.4 %. HDFC, TCS and Wipro were down more than 1.3 % each.


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12 th January

- The Sensex closed with a moderate downside as the investors sold oil & gas stocks after the

announcement of Reliance Industries, which sold equity shares for Rs3465Cr to raise funds

for the acquisition of Netherland based LyondellBasel. The Sensex under performed its small

and mid cap counterparts.

- Real estate stocks continued to see good buying while technology and auto stocks supported

the markets. IT stocks witnessed mixed trends ahead of the Infosys results today.

- Market breadth was strong at around 2.6x. FIIs and domestic institutions made huge buying

yesterday of Rs30bn and Rs3.2bn respectively.

- Asian markets are trading lower today. While the Nikkei is down after selling pressure in

the technology stocks due to stronger yen, the Hang Seng is down due to lower bank stocks.

13 th January

- The Sensex closed lower yesterday, as investors booked profits despite robust November

IIP data and better than-expected third quarter earnings by Infosys Technologies. IIP data

raised worries that the central bank will tighten monetary policy. Realty, metals and banks

stocks maintained pressure and pulled market lower. However, some buying was seen in IT

stocks.

- Market breadth was weak at 0.58x as investors sold large cap stocks. FIIs sold equitiesworth Rs3.6bn, while domestic institutions bought equities of Rs4.5bn.

Punj Lloyd has secured contract worth Rs947Cr from Ind-Barath Energy (Utkal) Ltd for

execution of partial balance of plant, mechanical, electrical and civil work on a 2X350 MW

thermal power project in Orissa to be executed over the next 2 years.

- JMC Projects has bagged Rs355Cr project from Provident Housing Ltd. (Purvankara

Group) for construction of residential project in Bangalore to be completed in 30 months inthree phases.


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- NDTV has entered into an agreement with Beximco Group, Bangladesh for consultancy to

set up and assist in the business management of a 24-hour news and current affairs channel

proposed to be launched in Bangladesh by Beximco Group.

- Videocon plans to invest Rs1,6bn under its new subsidiary Unity Appliances to set up a

manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu.

- Adhunik Group has initiated talks to acquire 50% stake in an Australian coking coalmine

for $100mn.

- Dabur has tied up with a Belgium firm for technical collaboration to reduce carbon

emissions in its plants and has invested Rs5Cr for the purpose.

14 th January

The benchmark indices extended their gains to hit a fresh day's high in late trade.

Expectations of better Q3 December 2009 results by India Inc supported the markets. The

Sensex and the Nifty gained 0.5% each. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small- Cap indices

outperformed the benchmark indices, and gained 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. Among the

front liners, ACC, TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Hindalco gained between 3-5%, while M&M,

Sun Pharma, Sterlite Industries, SBI and Bharti Airtel lost between 1-3%. In the Midcap

segment, GTL Infra, JSW Holdings, Ipca Labs, PTC and GTL gained between 5-14%, while

Nava Bharat Ventures, India Infoline, Peninsula India, Prakash Ind and Astrazeneca Indialost between 3-4%

15 th January

The benchmark indices extended their gains to hit a fresh day's high in late trade.. The Sensex

and the Nifty gained 0.5% each. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small- Cap indices outperformed the

benchmark indices, and gained 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. Among the front liners, ACC,TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Hindalco gained between 3-5%, while M&M, Sun Pharma, Sterlite


30/79


Industries, SBI and Bharti Airtel lost between 1-3%. In the Midcap segment, GTL Infra, JSW

Holdings, Ipca Labs, PTC and GTL gained between 5-14%, while Nava Bharat Ventures,

India Infoline, Peninsula India, Prakash Ind and Astrazeneca India lost between 3-4%

.

16 th January

The 30-share index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex, on Friday closed

down by over 30 points, after bluechips Reliance Industries (RIL) and Oil and Natural Gas

Corporation (ONGC) lost some ground on profit-booking by investors.

In lacklustre trading, the Sensex moved in narrow range, with investors taking a cautious

approach ahead of software major TCSs unveiling of third quarter earnings later in the

evening. Finally, the barometer concluded the day at 17,554.30, a fall of 30.57 points, or

0.17%, from its last close.

Real estate players and public sector enterprises (PSUs) attracted good buying support.

CNI Research CMD Kishor P Ostwal said the PSU stocks rallied on the hopes that what the

government has offered in EIL stocks would also be done in other companies which are lined

up for the disinvestment. PSU sectoral index gained a handsome 2%, with EIL positing a

mammoth gain of 20%, its highest permissible one-day gain, Dredging Corp 18.35% and

Hindustan Coppper 17.38%. The government had on Thursday approved selling its 10%

stake in Engineers India issuing two bonus shares for every share of the company.

The realty index also gained avoiding the late profit-booking seen in other sectors.

Bonanza Portfolio Assistant V-P, Research Equity, Avinash Gupta said real estate stocks

were up correcting the under-performance in the recent times. Anil Ambani Group company

Reliance Communications (RCOM) surged 4.76%, the biggest gain among all Sensex stocks,

amidst reports of the company getting Sebi approval for the initial public offer (IPO) of itstower subsidiary Reliance Infratel.

Brokers said losses in RIL and ONGC, however, dragged the market down. Indices of oil

& gas, consumer durables, metal, consumer goods and power shares ended lower by less than

1% each.

Largest lender in the country State Bank of India fell for the seventh day after KL Prasad,

an economic advisor in the finance ministry, said the Reserve Bank of India would act should

inflation reach a certain thre shold. Largest software services exporter TCS gained 1.8% onexpectations quarterly profit would beat analyst estimates. In worlds major markets, Intels


31/79


earnings boosted technology stocks on Friday. But broader gains were tempered amid patchy

figures on the US economy.

Japans Nikkei index flickered between red and green before ending higher, while most

other markets in Asia and Europe rose modestly. The dollar charged higher against the euro,

sending the oil price below $79 a barrel. Giving a lift to technology stocks was results from

Intel that confirmed things were looking up for the No. 1 maker of computer

microprocessors. Its fourth quarter income, revenues and profit margins all came in well

ahead of expectations and the companys forecasts wer e rosy.

As trading got started in Europe, benchmarks in Britain, Germany and France were higher

by up to 0.6%. Futures augured modest losses on Friday on Wall Street. S&P futures were off

1.6 points, or 0.1%, at 1,143.60.

In Asia, Japans Nikkei 225 stock average advanced 74.42 points, or 0.7%, to 10,982.10 in

choppy trading. Hong Kongs Hang Seng slipped 62.79, or 0.3%, to 21,654.16 amid news

that Beijing has dropped a plan to let mainland Chinese buy shares listed in the territory.

South Koreas Kospi advanced 1% to 1,701.80 and Taiwans benchmark added 0.8%.

18 th January

The benchmark indices closed higher on strong buying seen in banking, auto and technology

stocks. All public sector companies as well as divestment candidates witnessed huge buying

interest post, disinvestment secretary's comments. The Sensex closed at 17,641 up 87 points

after trading in the range of 17,712-17,505. The Nifty went up 22 points or 0.43% to settle at

5,275. The market breadth was mixed and the markets reported total traded turnover of Rs

82,203 cr.

Among the PSU companies, NMDC, Engineers India, STC India, Hindustan Copper and

Dredging Corporation were the most active stocks up 8-18%.

The BSE bankex rose 2.2 %. HDFC Bank rose 4.3%, UCO Bank rose 8.6%, ICICI Bank up

2.4%, Kotak Bank up 4.4%.


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The auto index was up 1.5 %. M&M up 1.5%, Telco up 1.8%, Maruti up 1.3% and Bharat

Forge were up 2.5%.

Metal stocks were under profit taking. Tata Steel down 0.9%, JSW Steel down 0.9%, Sail

down 1%.

Reality stocks like HDIL was up 2.5%, DLF up 0.6% and IRB were up 3.5%.

In the technology space, Wipro was up 1.7%, Financial Tech was up 4%, HCL Techno up

1.7% and Polaris Soft rose 4.9%.

Among the Sensex counters, HDFC Bank was the top gainer up 4.5 %. Hero Honda advanced

3.6 %. HDFC and ICICI Bank were up over 2 % each.

19 th January

BSE Sensex closed lower by around 176 points (down 1%), the NSE Nifty lost around 51

points (down 1%). Midcap and smallcap stocks were also at the receiving end losing 0.7%

and 0.6% respectively. Losses were largely seen in IT, healthcare and energy stocks.

. Novartis closed lower by 3% today and this was the fallout of poor 3QFY10 results

announced by the company a short while ago

As per a leading business daily, engineering major L&T is contemplating borrowing as

much as US$ 4.4 bn to build a power generation business. Further, plans on the anvil also

include buying coal mines in Australia and Indonesia to gain fuel supplies. Obviously, the

company is looking to capitalize on the power generation opportunity given the acute power

shortages that India has been facing. In-fact, peak-hour shortages were as high as 12.6% thisyear. However, L&T already has a high amount of debt on its books. This was amply evident

during 2QFY10 when interest costs surged by 61% YoY. What is more, interest costs for the

first half of this fiscal had substantially increased by 83% YoY. The stock closed lower

today, while its peers Voltas and BHEL closed firm.


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20 th January

The Indian indices witnessed a volatile session and ended the day on a weak note. The

benchmark indices opened on a flat note but soon edged downward, as negative cues from

global markets weighed on investor sentiments. The Sensex and the Nifty ended the session

with a loss of 0.9% each. The negative sentiment was widespread, as the BSE Mid-Cap and

Small-Cap indices also fell by 0.6% each. Among the front liners, BHEL, SBI, HDFC

Bank, Sterlite and Bharti Airtel gained between 0-1%, while ACC, Hindalco, TCS, Grasim

and RCOM lost between 2-3%. In the Mid cap segment, Andrew Yule, National Fertilizers,

RCF, HMT, and Gammon India gained between 11-20%, while Bajaj Hind, HT Media, Sun

Pharma Advanced Research, Berger Paints, and IVRCL Infra lost between 4-6%.

21 th January

The benchmark indices ended down sharply on disappointing results from the capital goods

leader, LT & Bhel. It was the biggest percentage decline for the Sensex since 3 Nov 2009,

when it slipped 2.4 %. The Sensex closed at 17,051 down 423 points after hitting a low of

17,025. The Nifty shut at 5,094 down 127 points or 2.4% after making a low 5,086. Among

the broader indices - the BSE Midcap Index was down 2.4% and Smallcap down 2.5%. Huge

sell-off was seen in capital goods, power and banking stocks. The breadth was very negative

and the markets reported highest turnover for the year 2010, at Rs 1,35,178 cr. All the BSE

sectoral indices ended in red. The Jan nifty future ended with 10 point discount.

The capital goods index on the BSE plunged 5.1 %. Havells India slumped 7.6 %. L&T was

down 6.8 % and Gammon India shed 6.7 % and Bhel lost 4.2%.

The power index was down 3.5 %. Lanco Infratech fell nearly 6 %. Tata Power lost 4.7%,

Reliance Infra lost 2.7%, Neyveli Lig lost 4.3% and Suzlon lost 3.9%.

Oil & gas space witnessed huge selling pressure. Reliance Ind lost 2.2%, Ongc lost 1.7%,

Cairn Ind lost 3.4% and Aban lost 4.1%.

Among the banking stocks, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank slid over 2.5 % each. ICICI Bank


34/79


today reported a 26.36 % drop in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,148.66 crore for the third

quarter (Q3) ended December 31, 2009.

Metal stocks like Sterlite Ind lost 3.5%, Sail lost 2%, Hindalo down 1% and JSW Steel lost

2.5%.

In the Sensex pack, L&T was the top loser down 6.8 % to Rs 1,524. Tata Power shed 4.4 %

and BHEL closed down 4.1 % at Rs 2,297.

22 nd January

INVESTORS hammered the markets on Thursday, pulling down the benchmark Sensex by

2.42% or over 423 points on worries that China may further tighten its monetary policy after

the double-digit growth in the last quarter, reports agencies from Mumbai. The 30-share

Bombay Stock Exchange barometer tumbled to 17,051.14, a steep fall of 423.35 points, or

2.42% . Tracking poor Wall Street and Asian markets, the Sensex opened 123 points

down and touched the days low of 17,025.26 during the day. This is the third consecutive

fall this week. The National Stock Exchange 50-issue Nifty also tumbled by 127.55 points or

2.44% breaking two key levels of 5,200 and 5,100 points to a hit low of 5,094.15. It dipped to

5,085.45 during the day. Analysts said China, after its stupendous 10.7% GDP growth in the

fourth quarter, will be have to cool down its overheated economy through monetary

and fiscal policy measures. This led to FIIs resorting to panic selling. The second biggest

dampener was the less-than-expected Q3 earnings by Larsen & Toubro. L&T plunged to

6.85% after the results.

23 rd January

INDIAS most valuable company, Reliance Industries, bettered market expectations to clock

its first quarterly profit growth in over a year, thanks to fresh outflow from its gas fields that

offset shrinking refining margins.

RILs net profit for the three months up to December 31, 2009, stood at Rs 4,008 crore, up

15.8% year-on-year.Volumes from the new refinery, gas sales and improved petrochem margins pushed up
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35/79


profits, company CFO Alok Agarwa l said at a press conference on Friday. RIL expects

refining margins, which have halved to $5.9 per barrel, to improve in the coming quarters. If

we see growth in Asian countries, we will see margins improving across our businesses, Mr

Agarwal said.

Gross refining margins for the nine months ending December 31 was at $6.2 compared

with $12.9 per barrel during the same period in the previous year. .

25 th January

The benchmark indices ended a volatile trading session, falling after the US President Barack

Obama proposed limiting risk-taking at US banks. Shares related to the infrastructure sector

were hammered, whereas IT stocks languished following the US bank plan. Bank stocks

declined, as investors turned cautious ahead of the RBIs quar terly monetary policy review

meet on 29 January, 2010. Auto stocks were mixed ahead of Q3 earnings. The Sensex and the

Nifty closed in the red, down 1.1% each. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices also

closed down 1.1% each. Among the front liners BHEL, ITC, Hero Honda and HUL were up

between 0-3%, while Tata Steel, L&T, DLF, Sun Pharma, and JP Associates lost between 3-

4%. In the mid cap segment, National Fertilisers, Thomas Cook, Jet Air India and

Carborundum Universal gained between 3-9%, while Mcleod Russel, Asian Star, Punj Llyod,

Future Capital and IVRCL Infra lost between 6-7%.

26 th January

THE Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive index (Sensex) fell for a fifth consecutive

session on Monday in its longest run of losses in nearly three months, as lower-than-expectedresults from Mahindra & Mahindra and shaky world markets weighed.

The Sensex dropped 0.47%, or 79.22 points, to 16,780.46, its lowest close in just over a

month. The benchmark has fallen 3.9% this month after rallying 81% in 2009. Traders said

US President Barack Obamas threat to restrain banks from taking risk hit outsourcing shares

such as

Infosys Technologies and Wipro that get most of their revenue from the United States.

There is a view being formed that Obamas plan to limit risk-taking by banks, might hurtthe order flow to the IT companies from BFSI , said Nilesh Doshi, president of equities at


36/79


Techno Shares.

Infosys shed 1.4% and Wipro lost 0.7%. Mahindra & Mahindra fell as much as 6.7% after

the top utility vehicles and tractor makers quarterly profit came in below market estimates.

The stock closed down 5.2%, its biggest fall in more than five months, at Rs 1,072.35.

Banks were mostly under pressure with the central bank expected to tighten policy on

Friday. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank dropped 1.3% and 1.1% respectively.

State Bank of India rose 0.2% to Rs 2,093.35 ahead of its quarterly results. After market

hours, the bank reported steady quarterly net profit, helped by better loan growth.

Maruti Suzuki climbed 0.4% to Rs 1,445.25, after it reported on Saturday December

quarter profit more than tripled. Leading mobile operator Bharti Airtel, which was the

secondworst performer amongst Sensex stocks for 2009, gained 2.9% at Rs 330.50. Credit

Suisse upgraded Bharti to neutral from underperform citing recent sharp underperformance of

the stock, the investment bank said in a research note seen by Reuters.

The NSE Nifty 0.6% lower at 5,007.90.

Jet Airways rose 3.8% to Rs 539.30 as the leading private airline operator said it posted a

net profit of Rs 106 crore in October-December, compared with a net loss of Rs 214 crore a

year ago.

27 th January

The key benchmark indices extended losses for the fifth straight session with weak global

cues playing the spoilsport. Further, selling pressure in late trade derailed a sharp pullback on

the bourses. High volatility was the hallmark of the day's trading session. The market breadth

was negative after a positive start. The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty were down by 0.5% and

0.6% respectively. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices were down by 1.3% and 0.9%respectively. Among the front-liners Bharti Airtel, HUL, ITC, L&T and Sun Pharma were up

by 1-3%, while M&M, JP Associates, DLF, Tata Steel and Sterlite Industries were down by

2-5%. In the Mid-cap segment, Jai-corp, Infotech Enterprises, National Fertilisers, Bajaj

Hindusthan and Jet Airways were up by 4-12%, while Dish TV, Mcleod Russel, Gujarat

Flurochem, AIA Engineering and Andrew Yule were down by 6-8%.


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28 th January

Sensex hits 12-wk low on China fears

THE Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex fell for a sixth session on Wednesday, sliding

2.9% to its lowest close in nearly 12 weeks, as investors joined a regional sell-off on concerns

Chinas efforts to cool credit demand could hurt global recovery.

Financial stocks led the drop on caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Indias (RBI)

monetary policy on Friday that is widely expected to tighten banks reserve requirements.

The Sensex dropped 2.92%, its biggest one-day fall in nearly three months, and ended down490.64 points at 16,289.82. Only one of its components closed in the green. It posted the

longest run of losses in nearly three months and matched a six-day slide to early November

last year.

.

SBI lost 5.1% at Rs 1,987.15, while rival ICICI Bank dropped nearly 5% to Rs 790.20.

Metals makers fell as an appreciating dollar and on worry further policy tightening in China

and proposed US bank regulations could stifle demand for metals.

Tata Steel dropped 8.5% to Rs 558.70 while non-ferrous metals producer Sterlite Industries

shed 4%

to Rs 770.05. Hindalco fell 5.7% to Rs 150.10. . Infosys Technologies and Tata

Consultancy Services lost 1.6% each, while Wipro shed 5.8%.

Reliance Industries, which has the highest weightage on the main index, closed 1.5% lower

at Rs 1,025.85.

On the BSE, around eight shares declined for every one share that gained on volume of

444 million shares, lower than last weeks daily ave rage of 534.4 million. The NSE Nifty

closed down 3.1% at 4,853.10.

DLF fell 7.8% to Rs 317.05 ahead of its December quarter results due after market hours.

HUL dropped 1.7% to Rs 259.30.


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29 th January

The benchmark indices witnessed smart recovery in the second half of the session and

discounted the CRR hike move of RBI in today's monetary policy and closed on a positive

note. The Sensex closed up 51 points at 16,357 after making a days low of 15,982. On the

NSE, Nifty closed at 4,882 up 15 points after hitting an intra-day low of 4,766. Buying was

seen in banking and reality while metals and IT faced selling pressure. The market breadth

was flat. For the week nifty closed down 3.2%.

The banking index on the BSE ended up nearly 3 %. ICICI Bank advanced 5.3 % to Rs 830,

other stocks like SBI and HDFC Bank saw over nearly 2.5 % gains.

The realty index saw 2.6 % gains. DLF was up 2.8%, Unitech up 2.5%, HDIL up 4.7% and

Ibrealestate was up 2.8%.

Among the metal stocks, Tata Steel fell 2.8 % while, Sail was down 2% and Sterlite Ind

ended 1.4 % lower.

Capital good space witnessed huge buying interest. BHEL up 2.6%, Siemens surged 4.2%,

Punj Lloyd was up 3.3% and ABB surged 3%.

Technology stocks were under selling pressure. Wipro fell 3.8 % while HCL Tech, TCS and

Infosys ended down nearly 0.7 %.

Among the FMCG space, Hind Lever ended down 5% and ITC lost 1.6%.

ICICI Bank advanced 5.3 % to Rs 830 to be the biggest gainer among the Sensex stocks.

Other major gainers included BHEL, up 3 %, and JP Associates, up 1.8 %.

The biggest losers were Hind Lever down 5%, Wipro down 3.8% while Tisco and Telco lost

2.8% each.


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NIFTY FEBRUARY 2010


29-feb-10 4,858.50 4,992,00 4,858.45 4,922.30

25-feb-10 4,859.00 4,880.15 4,835.60 4,859.75

24-feb-10 4,869.60 4,880.55 4,834.65 4,858.60

23-feb-10 4,856.60 4,884.10 4,833.15 4,870.05

22-feb-10 4,849.35 4,912.05 4,845.90 4,856.40

19-feb-10 4,887.30 4,887.30 4,805.55 4,844.90

18-feb-10 4,915.10 4,922.05 4,873.70 4,887.75

17-feb-10 4,858.65 4,929.70 4,857.60 4,914.00

16-feb-10 4,801.80 4,880.00 4,791.35 4,855.75

15-feb-10 4,827.90 4,845.60 4,783.90 4,801.95

11-feb-10 4,757.25 4,843.80 4,757.25 4,826.85

10-feb-10 4793.00 4826.85 4748.10 4757.20

09-feb-10 4760.55 4810.40 4739.35 4792.65

08-feb-10 4755.35 4799.05 4675.40 4760.40

06-feb-10 4712.75 4768.15 4712.75 4757.25

05-feb-10 4819.65 4827.00 4692.35 4718.65

04-feb-10 4931.304931.30 4832.35 4845.35

03-feb-10 4831.004949.15 4831.00 4931.85

02-feb-10 4907.85 4951.15 4814.10 4830.10

01-feb-10 4882.05 4918.80 4827.15 4899.70


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SENSEX FEBRAURY 2010


26-feb-10 16,255.33 16,669.25 16,249.67 16,429.55

25-feb-10 16,264.10 16,329.33 16,167.13 16,254.20

24-feb-10 16,218.68 16,328.44 16,187.44 16.255.97

23-feb-10 16,213.14 16,324.93 16,178.91 16,286.32

22-feb-10 16,191.32 16,423.23 16,191.32 16,237.05

19-feb-10 16,256.53 16,301.94 16,074.58 16,191.63

18-feb-10 16,421.21 16,452.51 16,287.17 16,327.84

17-feb-10 16,228.91 16,480.89 16,228.91 16,428.91

16-feb-10 16,042.18 16,310.39 16,021.29 16,226.68

15-feb-10 16,186.90 16,227.04 16,011.82 16,038.35

11-feb-10 15,928.28 16,202.87 15,928.28 16,152.59

10-feb-10 16,042.08 16,141.13 15,892.01 15,922.17

09-feb-10 15,940.73 16,094.13 15,862.90 16,042.18

08-feb-10 15,931.34 16,061.41 15,651.99 15,935.61

05-feb-10 16,222.56 16,222.56 15,725.43 15,790.93

04-Feb-10 16,500.29 16,508.22 16,188.80 16,224.95

03-feb-10 16,210.25 16,552.99 16,210.25 16,496.05

02-feb-10 16,368.44 16,525.98 16,129.11 16,163.44

01-feb-10 16,339.32 16,422.40 16,160.80 16,356.03


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Nifty February 2010

4,800.00

4,815.00

4,830.00

4,845.00

4,860.00

4,875.00

4,890.00

4,905.00

4,920.00

4,935.00

4,950.00

2 9

- f e b

- 1 0

2 5

- F e b

- 1 0

2 4

- F e b

- 1 0

2 3

- F e b

- 1 0

2 2

- F e b

- 1 0

1 9

- F e b

- 1 0

1 8

- F e b

- 1 0

1 7

- F e b

- 1 0

1 6

- F e b

- 1 0

1 5

- F e b

- 1 0

1 1

- F e b

- 1 0

1 0

- F e b

- 1 0

0 9

- F e b

- 1 0

0 8

- F e b

- 1 0

0 5

- F e b

- 1 0

0 4

- F e b

- 1 0

0 3

- F e b

- 1 0

0 2

- F e b

- 1 0

0 1

- F e b

- 1 0

OpenHigh

Low

Close


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SENSEX FEBRUARY 2010

15,500.00

15,600.00

15,700.00

15,800.00

15,900.00

16,000.0016,100.00

16,200.00

16,300.00

16,400.00

16,500.00

Open

High

Low

Close


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Daily analysis for the month of february

1st febraury

The key benchmark indices staged a strong intraday rebound, albeit in choppy trade, as

European stocks and US Index Futures rose. Closer home, investors also heaved a sigh of

relief as the RBI kept key interest rates unchanged in its quarterly policy review. There was

also an increase in the economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year from the central

bank. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty were up by 0.3% each. The BSE Mid-cap index

and Small-cap index were up by 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. Among the front-liners, ICICI

Bank, BHEL, SBI, DLF and HDFC Bank were up by 2-5%, while HUL, Wipro, Tata Motors,

Tata Steel and BHarti Airtel were down by 2-4%. In the mid cap segment, National

Fertilisers, Piramal Healthcare, IFCI, Educomp Solutions and RCF were up by 7-9%, while

IVRCL Infra, Opto Circuits, KGN Industries, Jain Irrigation and Bajaj Hindusthan were

down by 5-6%.

3rd feb

Key benchmark indices extended losses to fresh intraday lows in late trade as investors turned

cautious ahead of the opening of the large follow-on public offer (FPO) of state-run power

generation firm NTPC. The market pared gains as some Asian stocks reversed gains and US

index futures fell. Attempts at a recovery proved futile as heightened volatility pushed the

markets to close near the days lows. Th e BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty closed in the red losing

1.2% and 1.4% each. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices outperformed the benchmark

indices with losses of 1.2% and 0.8% respectively. Among the frontliners, HDFC, Hindalco

Industries, Sun Pharma and ONGC were up by 0-2%, while Jaiprakash Associates, Grasim

Industries, Reliance Communications, M&M and NTPC were down by 3-4%. In the Mid-cap

segment, Spice Communications, Emami, National Fertilisers, HT Media and KGN

Industries were up by 5-17%, while Tulip Telecom, Anant Raj Industries, Bajaj Hindusthan,

Thomas Cook and Andrew Yule were down by 5-6%.


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4 th feb

The Indian markets recouped the losses of the previous trading session, as they traded with

strong gains throughout the day, without any major volatility. The indices witnessed a gap-up

opening, along expected lines, as global indices traded with gains in excess of 1%. The BSE

Sensex and the NSE Nifty soared by 2.1% each. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices

underperformed the benchmark indices and gained 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. Among the

frontliners, Sterlite, Tata Steel, L&T, HDFC and Hindalco were up by 3-6%, while Sun

Pharma was down by 1%. In the Mid cap segment, Prakash Ind., Blue Dart, Core Projects,Rajesh Exports and BGR Energy were up by 6-11%, while Spice Communications, CRISIL,

HT Media, Andrew Yule and Simplex Infra were down by 3-6%

5 th feb

- The Sensex closed negative yesterday after rise of annual food inflation on second week and

weak European markets ahead of rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the

Bank of England. Heavy selling pressure was witnessed in real estate, metals and IT stocks.

The market lost further ground on the news of sharp rise in Sovereign Credit Default Swaps

of Greece, Portugal and Spain.

- Market breadth was weak at around 0.42x as investors sold large cap stocks. FIIs sold

equities worth Rs1.55bn, while domestic institutions bought equities of Rs2.41bn.

- The Asian markets are trading lower this morning. The Nikkei is trading down as exportershurt by a stronger yen, while escalating sovereign debt problems in Europe dented investor

confidence. The resource-linked stocks also suffered after a key commodities index saw its

biggest daily loss in almost six months due to fall in crude oil and gold. The Hang Sang is

also trading lower.


45/79


Economic and Corporate Developments

Food inflation rose to 17.56% in the week ended 23 January 2010 from 17.40% in the

previous week.

Buzzing Stocks

- GTL is planning to raise Rs1,400CR through non-convertible debentures (NCDs) to invest

in green energy products and solutions for telecom infrastructure that can bring down costs

for telecom operators.

- Kiri Dyes has acquired German firm DyStar Group through a special purpose vehicle,

which will give the company to access new markets in Europe.

- Advanta India, through its American unit has acquired the US-based Crosbyton Seed

Company.

- Dalmia Cement expects to raise Rs4.62bn by March through selling a stake in its subsidiary,

Dalmia Cement Ventures Ltd.

- M&M is talking with UK-based Triumph Motorcycles and Moto Guzzi, Italy to roll out

premium bikes for the Indian market.

- Essar Oil plans to increase its number of petrol pumps to 2,000 in the next few months from

1,450 currently.

8 th February

- The Sensex continued its downward trend last Friday, closing below the 16,000 mark on

concern over Europe's sovereign debt, indications of weak US jobs data and a fall in

commodity and energy prices. Persistent selling pressure was seen across the board and all

sectoral indices closed negative with real estate, metals and capital goods stocks were the

worst affected. Auto stock also declined after a government-appointed panel recommended


46/79


additional duty on diesel-powered vehicles. Indian markets were open for a couple of hours

last Saturday, for the purpose of software testing.

- Market breadth was extreme weak at around 0.21x as investors sold large cap stocks. FIIs

sold equities worth Rs17.2bn, while domestic institutions bought equities of Rs11.68bn.

- Asian markets are trading lower this morning. The Nikkei is trading down as exporters were

hurt by a stronger yen and mixed signals from the US labour market and growing anxiety

over fiscal problems in Europe. The Hang Sang is also trading lower.

- The Indian markets may open flat this morning in absence of positive cues, and remain

volatile on the back of weak Asian market

9 th febuary

Europe brings relief, Sensex gains 19 pts as telecom recovers

THE Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index pulled back from an early slide and

eked out a 0.1% gain on Monday, after a recovery in their European peers helped soothe

nerves. Beaten down telecoms Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications led the rise. The

government forecast the economy will grow 7.2% in the current fiscal year that ends in

March, picking up from a six-year low in the previous year and reinforcing market

expectations of strong industrial growth.

The rebound could prepare the ground for a roll-back in stimulus incentives when the

Union Budget is unveiled on February 26 and hasten an increase in interest rates to tame

inflation pressures.

For the time being, however, investors will be watching the debt problems in Europe,

traders said. The market will continue to be volatile in near term, until the global picture has

some clarity, said Vaibhav Sanghavi, director of Ambit Capital. The worries in the euro

zone will weigh.

The BSE Sensex ended up 0.13%, or 19.96 points, at 15,935.61, after falling 1.7% at one

stage. Sixte en of its components gained. Bharti, Indias leading mobile operator, rose 2.7% to


47/79


Rs 308.30 and rival Reliance Communications climbed 2.2% to Rs 168.70. The stocks were

the only ones to fall in 2009 amongst the constituents of the main index. I would buy Bharti

at current levels. It is best poised in the sector to gain from a long- term perspective, Mr

Sanghavi said. Banks gained on hopes for good long-term outlook in a growing economy.

Top lender State Bank of India rose 1.1% and rival ICICI Bank firmed 0.4%. Non-ferrous

metals producer Sterlite Industries gained 0.4% to Rs 752 as copper prices scored their

biggest one-day gain since November. Top power producer NTPC closed down 1.3% at Rs

202.40 after a muted response to its follow-on public offer that was just covered on the final

day.

In the broader market, losers outpaced gainers in a ratio of 1.1:1 on volume of 334 million

shares, down from last weeks daily average of 394 million shares. The 50 -share NSE index

rose 0.07% to 4,760.40. Fast food chain Jubilant FoodWorks jumped to Rs 229 on debut from

its issue price of Rs 145. Madhucon Projects climbed 3.2% to Rs 161.35, after the company

said it had won three hydro power projects totalling 75 megawatts.

10 th feb

The benchmark indices had a dull start after the US market suffered a severe setback

yesterday, with the Dow sliding below the 10,000 mark. However, after a strong intraday

rebound in morning trade, the market erased all its gains and slipped into the red briefly in

mid-morning trade. Sustained buying demand in select pivotals and a rebound in Asian

indices triggered a recovery in early afternoon trade. The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty were up

by 0.7% each. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices were up by 0.4% each. Among the

front-liners, Grasim, ACC, Infosys, Wipro and Sun Pharma were up by 2-5%, while DLF,

Hindalco, M&M, HUL and Maruti Suzuki were down by 1-2%. In the mid-cap segmentHMT, STC, Patni Computers, National Fertilizers and BGR Energy were up by 6-11%, while

Gujarat NRE Coke, Info Edge India, Petronet LNG, Parsvnath Developers and Indiabulls

Real Estate were down by 3-6%.

11 th feb

The market pared gains soon after a firm start triggered by higher Asian stocks. The marketslipped into the red in early trade as US index futures fell. It moved between the positive and


48/79


negative terrain after recovering sharply from the intraday lows in mid-morning trade. The

market re-gained positive zone in afternoon trade. It reversed gains to hit fresh intraday low

in late trade. Banking, capital goods, FMCG, healthcare and power stocks fell. The BSE

Sensex was down by 0.8%, while NSE Nift

volatality in indian stock market

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