volume 22 no. 1year’s 2nd semester output up to 9.51 million mt or 8.25% higher than in the...

Republic of the Philippines Department of Agriculture BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Quezon City

VOLUME 22 NO. 1

January 2008

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

EXPLANATORY NOTE

This report describes the palay and corn crop situation for calendar year 2007 and forecasts for January-June 2008 based on farmers’ standing crop and planting intentions. These estimates and forecasts are based on the results of the January 2008 Round of the Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) conducted nationwide by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).

The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices are the results of the Farm Price Survey (FPS) and the integrated Agricultural Marketing Information System-Agricultural Marketing News Service (AGMARIS-AMNEWSS) of the BAS. Household stocks data are obtained from the Palay and Corn Stocks Survey (PCSS1) of the BAS while data on stocks in commercial and NFA depositories are from the National Food Authority (NFA). Rainfall data are sourced from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

i

CONTENTS Explanatory Note iTable of Contents iiWeather Situation and Outlook iiiHighlights 1Crop Estimates

1 Palay 2-4 2 Corn 4-6

Rice and Corn Stocks 7Prices

1 Palay/Rice 8-9 2 Corn 9-10 3 Fertilizer 11-12 Rainfall 12Tables

Table 1 Palay: Final crop estimates, by quarter, Phippines, 2005-2007 13Table 2 Palay: Final crop estimates, by farm type, Philippines, 2005-2007 14 Table 3 Palay: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by farm type, Philippines, January-June 2006-2008 15 Table 4 Palay: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007 16 Table 5 Palay: Final crop estimates, by semester, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007 17 Table 6 Palay: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-June, 2006-2008 18 Table 7 Corn: Final crop estimates, by quarter, Philippines, 2005-2007 19 Table 8 Corn: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by crop type,

Philippines, 2005-2007 20 Table 9 Corn: Final crop estimates, quarter, by crop type, Philippines, January-June 2006-2008 21 Table 10 Corn: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007 22 Table 11 Corn: Final crop estimates, by semester, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007 23 Table 12 Corn: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-June 2006-2008 24 Table 13. Rice stock as of December 1, 2007 vs. November 1, 2006 and December 1, 2006 stocks 25 Table 14. Corn stock as of December 1, 2007 vs. November 1, 2006 and December 1, 2006 stocks 26 Table 15. Palay/Rice: Monthly prevailing prices, by market level, 2005-2007 27 Table 16. Corn: Monthly prevailing prices, by type, by market level, 2005-2007 28 Table 17. Fertilizer: Average price, by grade, by month, Philippines, 2005-2007 29

Table 18. Actual and normal cumulative rainfall, by region, Phils., 2006-2007 30

ii RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Weather Situation and Outlook1

October-December 2007

The La Niña episode of moderate strength has persisted over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Based on the recent equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature trends and the latest global climate forecasts, the La Niña is expected to continue at least until the first quarter of 2008 and there is a probability that the moderate La Niña will develop into a strong La Niña.

The weather systems that affected the country were southwest monsoon, tail end of the cold front, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), ridge of the North Pacific high pressure area, northeast monsoon, easterly wave and the passage of five (5) tropical cyclones namely: typhoons “Ineng” (October 1-7), “Kabayan” (November 3-7), “Lando” (November 19-22 & 26-28), and “Mina” (November 21-28); and tropical depression “Juaning” (October 26).

Typhoons “Ineng”, “Kabayan”, “Lando” and “Mina” enhanced the northeast monsoon and southwest wind flow and brought heavy rains, widespread flooding and landslides. “Lando” crossed the Visayas and Mindanao regions while “Ineng” devastated most areas of Luzon.

January-March 2008 Outlook

The period covers the second half of the Northeast (NE) monsoon season. The peak of La Niña episode is expected during this period and will probably enhance the northeast monsoon activity bringing rains over the eastern sections of the country. Flood and flash flood are likely to occur in affected areas.

The weather systems that are likely to affect the country are the northeast monsoon, tail-end of the cold front, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), ridge of high pressure area, and the easterlies. Two (2) or three (3) tropical cyclones are expected to enter the country.

————————————————— 1Excerpts from PAG-ASA October-December 2007 and January 2008 La Niña Advisories and Seasonal Climate Outlook.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK iii

1RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Highlights

Total palay production for 2007 reached 16.24 million MT, 5.96% above the 2006 output of 15.33 million MT. Harvest area expanded by 2.72% from 4.16 million hectares to 4.27 million hectares. Yield improved from 3.68 to 3.80 metric tons per hectare. The significant gain achieved during the 2nd semester boosted the overall performance of palay for the year.

Production for the 1st semester of 2008 is forecast at 7.15 million MT, 6.33% higher than the 6.73 million MT record in 2007. The expected increment would come from the 1st quarter due to increased plantings especially in rainfed areas as typhoons Lando and Mina induced more rains which enabled more farmers to plant. Harvest area may expand from 1.80 to 1.90 million hectares while yield may improve from 3.73 to 3.77 metric tons per hectare.

Total corn output for 2007 reached 6.74 million MT, 10.77% higher than last year’s 6.08 million MT record. Harvest area increased by 3.02% from 2.57 to 2.65 million hectares. Yield improved from 2.37 to 2.54 metric tons per hectare. The growth in 2007 was attributed to the significant gains realized in the 1st, 3rd

and 4th quarters of the year.

Corn production for the 1st half of 2008 is forecast at 3.34 million MT, 21.22% above the 2007 level of 2.75 million MT. The expected gains would come from 23.00% and 18.31% increases in the 1st and 2nd quarters, respectively. Harvest area may expand to 1.17 from 1.05 million hectares in 2007. Yield may improve from 2.62 to 2.86 metric tons per hectare.

1.0 Palay and Corn Crop Estimates

1.1 Palay

Calendar Year 2007 Crop

Total palay production for calendar year 2007 is estimated at 16.24 million MT, 5.96% above last year’s level of 15.33 million MT, despite the dry spell that extended up to July and the series of typhoons during the 4th quarter. The output gain was attributed to the expansion in harvest area by 2 . 7 2 % a n d y i e l d improvement by 3.16%. The operationalization of rehabilitated irrigation canals, opening of new rainfed areas, utilization of previously in-fallow land and availability of seeds under the DA QTA scheme encouraged farmers to increase their plantings. Yield improved due to increasing awareness and sustained usage of hybrid and high quality inbred seeds, and adequate fertilizer application thru the support of DA-GMA Rice Program and LGU interventions.

The combined output gains achieved in the 1st and 2nd quarters boosted this year’s first semester performance as palay production reached 6.73 million MT, 2.88% above last year’s record of 6.54 million MT. While there was a decrease in production in some rainfed areas due to dry spell, there was also some expansion in areas especially in irrigated farms as a result of sufficient water from NIS, STWs, SWIPs and SFRs. This semester’s harvest area grew from 1.77 to 1.80 million hectares, while yield went up from 3.70 to 3.73 metric tons per hectare.

The significant increase of 10.11% in production during the 4th quarter pushed this year’s 2nd semester output up to 9.51 million MT or 8.25% higher than in the previous year. Central Luzon, Western Visayas, Ilocos Region, Bicol Region, Mimaropa, Zamboanga Peninsula and Calabarzon largely contributed to this increase. The good performance of palay farms during the 4th quarter was attributed to several factors such as sufficiency of irrigation water due to

2RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

rehabilitated and restored irrigation canals, movement of harvesting from 3rd

quarter to 4th quarter, availability of subsidized seeds and fertilizer under the QTA program of DA GMA Rice, increased usage of hybrid and certified seeds, sufficient rainfall and relatively lesser occurrence of destructive typhoons.

This year’s harvest area for the second semester expanded by 3.29%, from 2.39 million hectares in 2006 to 2.47 million hectares while yield moved up by 4.80%, from 3.68 to 3.85 metric tons per hectare.

January– June 2008 Forecast

Production for the first half of 2008 is forecast at 7.15 million MT, 6.33% higher than the 6.73 million MT record in 2007. The bulk of this gain would be in the 1st quarter with production expected to reach 4.02 million MT based on standing crop. The increment is expected to come from Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Soccsksargen, Central Luzon and Eastern Visayas. Production increases in these regions could be traced to the availability of water due to rehabilitation and restoration of irrigation canals in irrigated areas and rains brought about by typhoons Lando and Mina in rainfed areas, increasing awareness and usage of hybrid and quality inbred seeds thru DA GMA Rice Program interventions and the possible spillover of QTA areas to the 1st quarter.

3 RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the 2nd

quarter production, area harvested and yield are expected to increase by 2.74%, 2.66% and .09%, respectively.

Overall, production, area and yield for the 1st

semester of 2008 will likely grow by 6.33%, 5.09% and 1.18%, respectively, if the expected gains in the 1st and 2nd quarter will be realized.

1.2. CORN

Calendar Year 2006 Crop

Corn production for calendar year 2007 reached 6.74 million MT, 10.77% above the 2006 level of 6.08 million MT. Except for the reported drop in production and area in the 2nd quarter due to dry spell, increases were reported in the other quarters. Area harvested for the year expanded to 2.65 million hectares, 3.02% more than the 2006 record of 2.57 million hectares. There was an improvement in yield from 2.37 to 2.54 metric tons per hectare.

Production for the 1st quarter posted a significant growth of 11.43% over last year’s 2.60 million MT. This was largely due to expansion of harvest area by 10.56% which was contributed by Cagayan Valley, ARMM. Central Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 4

This year’s 2nd quarter production and area declined by 2.49% and 6.13%, respectively. The dry spell experienced in the 1st quarter delayed planting in Soccsksargen, while heavy rains caused the movement of harvests to 3rd quarter in Maguindanao. In Apayao, there were reported movements of harvests to 1st quarter and damages due to tornado and hailstorm.

Overall, the gain achieved in the 1st quarter has offset the losses incurred during the 2nd quarter which resulted in the positive performance of corn during the 1st

semester.

Corn production for the second semester was estimated at 3.98 million MT, 14.57% higher than the 2006 output of 2.57 million MT. The production gains of 13.96% and 15.66% during the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, translated to the significant increase in this year’s second semester output. Area harvested expanded to 1.60 million hectares, 2.75% more than the 1.56 million hectares record in 2006. Yield improved from 2.23 to 2.49 metric tons per hectare.

The bulk of the 3rd quarter’s production were contributed by Soccsksargen, ARMM, Northern Mindanao, and Western Visayas. Simultaneous planting after the dry spell, availability of seeds from the GMA Corn Program, more usage of hybrid seeds and good market price of corn enhanced the 3rd quarter’s corn output.

The output increase in the 4th quarter was contributed by ARMM, Northern Mindanao, Bicol, Zamboanga Peninsula, Calabarzon and Caraga. Improved weather conditions compared to last year’s excessive rains and destructive typhoons, availability and continuous usage of hybrid seeds, additional plantings from PCA’s corn under coconut program, and movement of peak harvest from 3rd to 4th quarter contributed to the significant growth in these regions.


January-June 2008 Forecast

Corn production for the first semester of 2008 is forecast at 3.34 million MT, 21.22% above the 2.75 million MT record in 2007. The expected gains of 23.00% in the 1st quarter and 18.31%, in the 2nd

quarter will bring about this significant increase in production.

Based on standing crop, production for the 1st

quarter of 2008 may increase to 2.10 million MT, 23.00% higher than the 2007 level of 1.70 million MT. The regions which would l ikely contribute to this increase are Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen, Western Visayas, Cagayan Valley, Bicol and ARMM. This gain would be attributed to more plantings due to intensive promotion of corn hybridization, continuous hybrid and OPV seeds and fertilizer subsidy from GMA Corn Program, LGUs and private company interventions, availability of seeds from PCA’s corn under coconut program, and higher market price of corn.

Based on farmers’ planting intentions, this year’s 2nd quarter output may reach 1.24 million MT, 18.31% higher than last year’s 1.05 million MT record. The regions that are expected to give substantial contributions to this increase are Soccsksargen, ARMM, Central Luzon and Ilocos.

This year’s first semester production, area and yield will surpass the 2007 levels by 21.22%, 11.09% and 9.12%, respectively.


2.0 Rice and Corn Stocks

2.1. Rice Stock

The December 1, 2007 total rice stock was estimated at 2.29million metric tons, higher by 12.4percent over its month ago level. Compared to previous year’s level rice stock dropped by 11.2 percent following the 35.1 and 6.7 percent decline in NFA depositories and household holdings, respectively. Stocks are enough to last for 72 days.

Stock in the households, commercial and NFA sectors increased over their month ago levels by 8.4 percent, 21.1 percent and 20.1 percent, respectively. Of the total NFA stock, 95.0 percent were imported rice.

Around 65.0 percent of the total rice stock were with households, while 20.0 and 15.0 percent were with the commercial warehouses and NFA depositories, respectively.

2.2. Corn Stock

The total corn stock as of December 1, 2007 was estimated at 231.0 thousand metric tons. It was lower by 4.1 percent from its month ago level but registered a 41.3 percent increase over last year’s record.

Household and commercial stocks went down by 7.3 percent and 0.4 percent over their month ago records. On the other hand, stocks in commercial and household sectors registered increments of 62.7 and 25.7 percent, respectively from last year’s levels.

NFA reported no corngrain stock for the period.


3.0 Prices

3.1 Palay/Rice

The 2007 national average prices per kilogram of palay/rice at all market levels were higher compared to the 2006 and 2005 a v e r a g e s . A t farmgate, national average price for this year was P11.52 per kilogram, P0.62 and P0.69 above 2006 and 2 0 0 5 p r i c e s , respectively.

Monthly average prices of rice at wholesale and retail levels in 2007 were generally higher compared to the prices in 2006 and 2005. At wholesale, average price of rice was pegged at P22.58 per kilogram, 5.5% and 7.8% higher than the prices in 2006 and 2005, respectively. The average retail price at P24.88 per kilogram was 4.9% over last year’s average price and 8.0% over the 2005 quotation.


In Metro Manila, the 2007 monthly wholesale prices of rice remained stable from January (P21.18/kg) to August (P22.04/kg). It went up to P24.49 per kilogram in September and s t a b i l i z e d u n t i l December. The annual average was P22.27 per kilogram.

At retail, average price of rice in Metro Manila was also stable for the first semester of 2007. It went up to P24.00 per kilogram in July, reached its peak at P29.50 in August and remained stable at P26.00 per kilogram in September to December. The average price per kilogram of P24.98 was P1.19 higher than the 2006 average of P23.79 per kilogram.

3.2. Corn

Average prices of both white and yellow corn in a l l marke t l eve l s increased from their 2006 averages. The 2007 average farmgate price of yellow corn at P10.03 per kilogram was higher by P0.93 and P2.33 than the 2006 and 2005 price quotations, respectively. The highest price was recorded at P10.65 per kilogram in May while the lowest price was noted at P9.28 per kilogram in January.


The mon th ly p r i ce quotations of white corn at farmgate were consistentlyhigher for the first seven months of 2007 but took a downturn in the remaining months of the year with its average price of P10.60 per kilogram, P0.50 lower than the 2006 price for the same period.

Except for February, the 2007 monthly wholesale average prices per kilogram of yellow corn were consistently higher compared to the same period in 2006. Price per kilogram was lowest in January at P10.88 and highest in December at P11.75. The 2007 average wholesale price per kilogram was P11.45, 5.5% lower than last year’s price.

For white corn, the a v e r a g e m o n t h l y wholesale prices from January to July of 2007 were higher compared to same period in 2006. Price levels from August to November 2007 dropped from the 2006 levels by about P0.06 to P0.30 per kilogram. The lowest monthly wholesale price per kilogram was recorded at P11.70 in December while the highest was noted in March at P12.38.


3.3. Fertilizer

The 2007 average retail price per kilogram of all fertilizer grades was higher compared to the prices in 2006. Among the four fertilizer grades, urea remained the most expensive, with an average price of P954.61 per bag, 6.11% and 5.44% higher than the average prices in 2006 and 2005, respectively. Its monthly retail prices continued to increase in the 1st and 2nd quarters of this year, but decreased in the 3rd quarter followed by an increase in the 4th quarter.

Ammosul posted the lowest monthly prices this year with an average price of P533.64 per bag, P51.16 higher than in the same period in 2006 but P0.77 lower than in 2005. Except fo r January and February, monthly retail prices were consistently higher compared to the corresponding prices in 2006.

This year’s average retail price of complete fertilizer was P801.46 per bag, up by P46.75 and P30.02 compared to the average prices in 2006 and 2005, respectively. Its monthly retail prices continued to increase from P757.02 in January to P865.80 in December. Complete fertilizer is the second most expensive fertilizer.


The monthly retail prices of ammophos exhibited the same trend with that of complete fertilizer. Its average retail price this year was P773.12 per bag, up by P44.61 and P24.52 from the 2006 and 2005 a v e r a g e p r i c e s , respectively.

4.0 Rainfall

The 2007 total accumulated rainfall of 34,364.5 mm was 1.5% more than what was received in 2006 but still 4.4% below the normal level. With the exception of Eastern Visayas, Cagayan Valley, Southern Tagalog, CAR, ARRM, and NCR, the rest of the regions had more rains compared to that of last year. CARAGA had the highest rainfall amount of 3,265 mm while the lowest was recorded in Central Mindanao at 1,429 mm.

In 2007, ARRM, NCR, Central Visayas, Southern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, Bicol, CARAGA, Central Luzon, and Western Mindanao, experienced rains more than the normal amount, while the rest of the regions had rains below normal.


Table 1. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by quarter, Philippines, 2005-2007


Table 2. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by farmtype, Philippines, 2005-2007


Table 3. PALAY: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by quarter, by farmtype, Philippines, January-June 2006-2008


Table 4. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007


Table 5. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by semester, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007


Table 6. PALAY: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-June, 2006-2008


Table 7. CORN: Final crop estimates, by quarter, Philippines, 2005-2007


Table 8. CORN: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by crop type, Philippines, 2005-2007


Table 9. CORN: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by crop type,Philippines, January-June 2006-2008


Table 10. CORN: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007


Table 11. CORN: Final crop estimates, by semester, by region, Philippines, 2006-2007


Table 12. CORN: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-June, 2006-2008


Table 13. Rice stock as of December 1, 2007 vs. November 1, 2006 and December 1, 2006 stocks


Table 14. Corn stock as of December 1, 2007 vs. November 1, 2006 and December 1, 2006 stocks


Table 15. PALAY/RICE: Monthly prevailing prices, by type, by market level, Philippines and Metro Manila, 2005-2007


Table 16. CORN: Monthly prevailing prices, by type, by market level, Philippines and Metro Manila, 2005-2007


Table 17. FERTILIZER: Average price, by grade, by month, Philippines, 2005-2007


Table 18. Actual vs. normal cumulative rainfall, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2006-2007

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Department of Agriculture BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

1184 Ben-lor Bldg., Quezon Avenue, Quezon City CROPS STATISTICS DIVISION, Cereals Statistics Section

[email protected]

http://www.bas.gov.ph

volume 22 no. 1year’s 2nd semester output up to 9.51 million mt or 8.25% higher than in the...

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