volume 40 • issue 5 ims bulletinbulletin.imstat.org/wp-content/uploads/bulletin40_5.pdf · ims...

August 2011

Contents 1 Updated bulletin.imstat.org

website

2Members’ News: SteffenLauritzen;SimonTavaré,DonaldRubin,JonWellner,MarieDavidian,BaniMallick,DipakDey

4 Rick’s Ramblings: DehydratedElephants

5 IMS News: CouncilandExecutivemembers

6 Medallion Lectures: SylviaRichardson,Qi-ManShao

8 Anirban’s Angle: ANewCore?

9 Obituaries: TimothyRobertson,BernardHarris

11 ISOSS Meeting report

12 AOAS in the News

13 Terence’s Stuff:GenderEquity

14 IMS meetings

16 Other meetings

18 Employment Opportunities

20 International Calendar of Statistical Events

23 Information for Advertisers

Volume 40 • Issue 5

IMS BulletinBulletin blog site goes liveDimitrisPolitiswrites:Formanyyears,theIMS Bulletinhasbeenavailableintwoforms:ashardcopy,andasaPDFfilewhichwasanexactmirrorofthehardcopy(withaddedhyperlinks)availableasadownloadfromtheIMSBulletinwebsite,locatedathttp://bulletin.imstat.org.

InaccordancewiththeInstitute’saimtoencouragemembersto“gogreen”byoptingtoreceivetheelectronicversionoftheBulletin,andbepaperlesstotheextentpossible,theneedtorevamptheonlineBulletin’spresencewasbroughtforthbyPresident-ElectRuthWilliams.

WearenowinthehappypositiontoannouncetheinaugurationofthenewelectronicversionoftheBulletinthatwasmadepossibleviatheeffortsofourAssistantEditor,TatiHowell,andAndyStevens,whohasprovidedtechnicalsupport.The“new”Bulletin canbefoundatthesamewebsitehttp://bulletin.imstat.organd,aswellashavinganewlookandfeel,isbeautifullyinteractive.ThePDFversionwillstillbeavailableforeachissue,butnow,inaddition,selectedarticlesfromissueswillbeplacedonline,includingourregularcolumns,membernews,obituariesandmeetingreports.

Forthefirsttimereaderswillbeabletoposttheircommentsonanyarticletheyread,thusfacilitatingaquickandeasyexchangeofideas.Forexample,weareverymuchlookingforwardtoalivelydebatefollowingAnirbanDasGupta’scallfor“ANewCore’’forthestatisticsPhDcurriculum,onpage8ofthisissue,andonline.

Asever,werelyverymuchonIMSmemberstovolunteertheirnews;youcanstilldothisold-style,i.e.,byemailtobulletin@imstat.orgaswellasviathecontactpageoftheBulletinwebsite.

Wearealsopleasedtointroduceanewwebsitefeature,apermanentcolumnentitled“OpenForum”thatwillbeanopenblog-typeareaaspromisedintheJanuaryissue.Our“OpenForum”willbedevotedentirelytoreaders’viewsandcontributionsonmattersofcurrentimport.

WehopethatreaderswilltakeadvantageoftheseinteractivefeaturesofthenewonlineBulletin.Asastart,howaboutreadingsomearticlesandgivingussomefeedbackviathe“comment”feature?Welookforwardtohearingfromyou!

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Executive CommitteePresident: PeterHall [email protected]: RuthWilliams [email protected] Past President: J.MichaelSteele [email protected]: JeanOpsomer [email protected] Secretary: GuentherWalther [email protected] Secretary:MartenWegkamp [email protected]

IMS Bulletin Editor: DimitrisPolitisAssistant Editor: TatiHowellContributing Editors: PeterBickel,AnirbanDasGupta,RickDurrett,NicoleLazar,TerrySpeed

To contact the IMS Bulletin: IMSBulletin

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2.IMsBulletin Volume40.Issue 5

IMS Members’ News

Contact information

IMSBulletinVolume40•Issue5August2011ISSN1544-1881

TheUK’sRoyalSocietyisafellowshipoftheworld’smosteminentscientistsandistheoldestscientificacademyincontinu-ousexistence.Fellowsareelectedforlifethroughapeerreviewprocessonthebasisofexcellenceinscience.Eachyear44newFellowsareelectedbyexistingFellows.AmongthoseelectedthisyeararetwoIMSFellows.

ProfessorSteffenLauritzenisaprofessorofstatisticsintheDepartmentofStatisticsattheUniversityofOxford,andaFellowofJesusCollege,Oxford.

Steffenisdistinguishedforhismanycontributionstothetheoryandpracticeofstatisti-calscience.Mostnotably,hepioneeredthefieldofgraphicalmodels,whichprovidesimpleandpowerfultoolsforencapsulatingconditionalindependencestructures.Theareaisnowacentralpartofmainstreamstatistics,andhasrevolutionizedmanyapplications.Lauritzen’scontributionsrangefromdeepinsightsintothemathematicalstructureofthisclassofmodels,throughinnovativeandefficientalgorithmsfortheiranalysis,toapplicationsinartificialintelligence,forensicscienceandmedicaldiagnosis.Otherimportantworkhascharacterizedtheanalyticstructureofstatisticalmodelsfromadifferentialgeometricperspective,viasufficiency

ProfessorSimonTavaréisaprofessorintheDepartmentofAppliedMathematicsandTheoreticalPhysicsandProfessorofCancerResearch,DepartmentofOncology,UniversityofCambridge,aswellasSeniorGroupLeaderintheCancerResearchUKCambridgeResearchInstitute.

Simonisaninternationallyrecognisedfigureintheinterfacebetweenstatistics,probabilityandbiologicalandmedicalsciences.Hehasmadeimportantcon-tributionstothestudyofcombinatorialstochasticprocesses,populationgeneticsandstatisticalbioinformatics.HisworkintheanalysisandinterpretationofDNAsequenceandrelatedgenomicdataincludesstatisticalaspectsofcoalescenttheory,includingthefirstfulllikelihood-basedmethodsfortheanalysisofsequencevariationdata,methodsforancestralinference,andforlikelihood-freeinferenceandapproximateBayesiancomputationforcomplexstochasticprocesses.Hehaspioneeredthedevelopmentofevolu-tionarygenomicapproachesforunderstandingcancer.

Royal Society elects Steffen Lauritzen and Simon Tavaré

Steffen Lauritzen

Simon Tavaré










IMS EditorsIMS Journals and PublicationsAnnals of Statistics:PeterBühlmannandTonyCai

http://imstat.org/aos Annals of Applied Statistics: BradleyEfron,Stephen

Fienberg,MichaelStein,KarenKafadar&SamuelKouhttp://imstat.org/aoas

Annals of Probability: OferZeitounihttp://imstat.org/aop

Annals of Applied Probability: AndrewBarbourhttp://imstat.org/aap

Statistical Science:JonWellnerhttp://imstat.org/sts

IMS Lecture Notes – Monograph Series http://imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm

IMS Collectionshttp://imstat.org/publications/ imscollections.htm

NSF-CBMS Regional Conference Series in Probability and Statistics:http://imstat.org/publications/nsf.htm

IMS Co-sponsored Journals and Publications

Electronic Journal of Statistics: DavidRupperthttp://imstat.org/ejs

Electronic Journal of Probability: BálintTóthhttp://www.math.washington.edu/~ejpecp

Electronic Communications in Probability:TimoSeppäläinenhttp://www.math.washington.edu/~ejpecp /ECP/index.php

Current Index to Statistics:GeorgeStyanhttp://www.statindex.org

Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics:RichardLevinehttp://www.amstat.org/publications/jcgs

Statistics Surveys:LutzDümbgenhttp://imstat.org/ss

Probability Surveys:GeoffreyGrimmetthttp://imstat.org/ps

IMS-Supported Journals Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré (B): AliceGuionnet

http://imstat.org/aihpBayesian Analysis:HerbieLee

http://ba.stat.cmu.eduBernoulli:RichardDavis

http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulliBrazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics:SilviaFerrari

http://imstat.org/bjps

IMS-Affiliated Journals ALEA: Latin American Journal of Probability and Statistics:

ClaudioLandimhttp://alea.impa.br/english

Probability and Mathematical Statistics:M.Musiela,J.Rosiński,W.Szczotka,A.Weron&W.A.Woyczyńskihttp://www.math.uni.wroc.pl/~pms

Other IMS contactsBulletin website:http://bulletin.imstat.org Main IMS website:http://imstat.org Managing Editor:[email protected] Production Editor:PatrickKelly

[email protected]

IMsBulletin . 3August . 2011

IMS Members’ News

Don Rubin awarded honorary doctorate by University of Bamberg, GermanyDonaldB.Rubin,JohnL.LoebProfessorofStatisticsatHarvardUniversity,hasbeenawardedanhonorarydoctoratebytheFacultyofSocialSciencesandEconomicsatOtto-Friedrich-UniversitätBamberg,Germany.Thehonorarydoctorateisinrecognitionofhisworkinthesocialsciencesandeconomics,andinparticular,forhisoutstandingcontributionstothefieldofappliedstatistics.

Jon Wellner received Humboldt Research AwardJonA.Wellner,UniversityofWashington,USA,hasbeenelectedtherecipientofaHumboldtResearchAward.HewasnominatedforthisprestigiousawardbyProf.TilmannGneiting,UniversityofHeidelberg,Germany.TheHumboldtResearchAwardisconferredinrecognitionoflifetimeachievementsinresearch.Inaddition,theawardeeisinvitedtocarryoutresearchprojectsofhisownchoiceincooperationwithspecialistcolleaguesinGermany,therebypro-motingfurtherinternationalscientificcooperation.Seehttp://www.humboldt-foundation.

de/web/programmes-by-target-group.htmlforfurtherinformation.

Dipak Dey associate dean of University of Connecticut College of Liberal Arts and SciencesDipakK.Dey,BoardofTrusteesDistinguishedProfessorattheDepartmentofStatistics,hassteppeddownasheadofthedepartmentandhasjoinedtheadministrationoftheCollegeofLiberalArtsandSciencesatUConnasassociatedean(PhysicalSciences).InadditiontohisdutiesoverseeingthePhysics,Chemistry,Mathematics,Geosciences,MarineSciencesandStatisticsDepartments,ProfessorDeywillalsobetakingcareofgraduateeducationwithintheCollegeofLiberalArts,internationalprogramdevelopment,andfosteringinterdisciplinaryresearchwithintheUniversity.

Marie Davidian elected ASA President-electMarieDavidian,NorthCarolinaStateUniversity,hasbeenvotedthenextPresident-electoftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation.ShewillserveasASAPresidentduring2012.

IMSFellowMarieDavidianisWilliamNealReynoldsProfessorofStatisticsatNCSU.SheisaFellowofASAandtheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScience,andanelectedmemberoftheInternationalStatisticalInstitute.ShehasservedaseditorofBiometrics andhasearnedseveralawards,includingtheAwardforOutstandingStatisticalApplication.

Distinguished Professor Bani Mallick BaniK.Mallickhasbeenpromotedtodistin-guishedprofessorinthedepartmentofsta-tisticsatTexasA&MUniversity.MallickisapioneerresearcherinthefieldofBayesiannonparametricregressionandclassifica-tionandtheauthorofBayesian Methods of Nonlinear Classification and Regression.Hedoesmajorcollaborativeresearchwithscientistsfromotherfieldssuchaspetro-leumengineering,bioinformatics,trafficmapping,superfundhazardouswastesites,andindustrialengineering.Hedevelopsnovelmethodologyandtheoryessentialforscientificresearchinthesecollaborationsandhassevenfundedresearchgrants.

http://imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm

http://imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm

http://www.math.washington.edu/~ejpecp/ECP/index.php

http://www.math.washington.edu/~ejpecp/ECP/index.php

http://imstat.org/aos

http://imstat.org/aoas

http://imstat.org/aop

http://imstat.org/aap

http://imstat.org/sts

http://imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm

http://imstat.org/publications/nsf.htm

http://imstat.org/ejs

http://www.math.washington.edu/~ejpecp

http://www.statindex.org

http://www.amstat.org/publications/jcgs

http://imstat.org/ss

http://imstat.org/ps

http://imstat.org/aihp

http://ba.stat.cmu.edu

http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli

http://imstat.org/bjps

http://alea.impa.br/english

http://www.math.uni.wroc.pl/~pms


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http://www.humboldt-foundation.de/web/programmes-by-target-group.html

http://www.humboldt-foundation.de/web/programmes-by-target-group.html

4 .IMsBulletin Volume40. Issue 5

Isthereactuallyanyuseforadehydratedelephant?Rick Durrettthinksthatjustbecausewecansolveaproblem,itdoesn’tnecessarilymeanwe’reasking,oranswering,therightquestion…

Rick’s Ramblings: DehydratedElephants

Wellonmywaytobirthday“LX”(inan“XL”body),IamgratefulthatIhadtheopportunitytomeetsomeofthegreatestprobabilistsofourtime.MonroeDonsker,withhiswildandcrazyeyebrows,tookahiatusfromacademiabetweeninventinghisinvarianceprincipleandworkingwithVaradhanonlargedeviationsinordertoserveinthediplomaticcorps.OnenightatapartyinSpain,whilehearingabouttheexodusoftalentedindividualsfromthatcountryhequipped,“Ohyoumean,thedraininSpainismainlyonthebrain.”Thishastobeoneofthegreatestone-linersofalltime,evenifhewaslaterreprimandedforit.

Myseconddeardepartedhero,whogivesthetitletothispiece,isMarcKac,aself-described“simplepole.”Throughouthislife,herailedagainstdehydratedelephants.Naively,IthoughtthatintheageoftheInternetIcouldfindacopyoftheclassiccartoonwiththepunch-line:“I’mnotsurewhatyoucandowithadehydratedelephant,butitisnicetoseethatitcanbedone.”Inmyopinion,thisphraseappliestomanyofthearticlesthattheIMSpublishesitstwoprobabilityjournals.TheproblemwithourpublicationsisbestillustratedbyaclassicMarkKaclinethatcomplainsaboutpeoplewhostart with the answers and then figure out what is the question.Thejokebegins,“Theansweris:9w.”Afterasufficientlypregnantpause,thequestionisrevealed:“DoyouspellyournamewithaV,Mr.Wagner?”(“Nein, W”).Ifyouwanttolearnmoreaboutthemanbehindthesejokes,checkoutKac’sautobiography,Enigmas of Chance.

Returningtomydiatribe,oneoftheproblemsaboutwhatispublishedintheAnnals of Applied Probabilityliesinthedictumappliedbyreferees:“ifit’snot

hard,it’snotgood.”Itseemstomethatoneshouldgiveatleastequalweighttothequestion:doesthepapersaysomethinginterestingabouttheapplication?Toquotemyacademicgodfather,KaiLaiChung,fromtheprefaceofhisbookonMarkovChains:“Mathematiciansaremoreinclinedtobuildfirestationsthantoputoutfires.”Giventhecontentofourjournals,thequoteshouldbeupdatedto:“Oncewehaveablueprintforonefirestation,thereisnoneedtoactuallybuilditortoengageintheboringenterpriseofputtingoutfires.”

Thisisnottosaythattheoreticalprob-abilityisdeadandburied.ThepreviewofAliceGuionnet’sMedallionlectureonrandommatrices[in the previous issue]isveryexciting.AtmynewhomeinDurham,werecentlyhada2011revivaloftheSoutheasternProbabilityConference.Thefirstconferencebroughtanexcellentgroupofspeakers:TimoSeppäläinen(Wisconsin),JeremyQuastel(Toronto),LionelLevine(MIT),PeteKramer(RPI),DavarKhoshnevisan(Utah),SouravChatterjee(NYU),andGérardBenArous(NYU).AsIsatthereandwatchedthetalks,IcouldonlysayWOW.Ofcourse,muchoftheworkpresentedattheSEPChadamotiva-tioncomingfromphysicsorbiology,butsometalkslikeLionelLevine’slectureweremathematicallybeautifulsolutions.

Turning—asIinevitablydointhiscolumn—todiscussingmyownresearch,oneofthegreatthingsaboutcomingtoDukeayearagohasbeenthefactthatthe

medicalschoolisoncampus,ratherthan4+hoursawayfrom“centrallyisolated”Ithaca(anotherMarcKacphrasethatcouldeasilybeappliedtoSAMSI’slocationintheResearchTrianglePark).

Oneofmynewcollaborationswithlocalmedicalresearchersinvolvesastudyofovariancancer.In2010,anestimated21,800newcasesdevelopedintheUSwith13,850deaths.Asthenumbersmightsuggestthisisadeadlydiseasewitharapidtimecourse.Thefive-yearsurvivalrateis30%,dueprimarilytothefactthatthetumorswhichstartintheovaryandfallo-piantubesdonothavesignificantphysicalbarrierstometastasisintotheperitonealcavity.

WithaverytalentedDukeundergradu-ate,KavehDanesh,IhavebeenworkingtoapplyamechanisticmodelasanalternativetothephenomenologicalmodelsthathavewomenhoppingfromclinicalstageItoIItoIIItoIVaccordingtoaMarkovchain.Ourmodelsaremultitypebranchingprocessesinwhichtypeiindividualsgivebirthatrateai ,dieatratebi ,andmutatetotypei+1atrateui+1 .Beforeyouyawnandsaythatstudyingthesemodelsisnothardenoughtobeworthit,putdownthisissueoftheBulletin andtrytofigureoutwhattheasymptoticbehaviorofZ1hastodowithone-sidedstablelaws,anobservationthatprovidesusefulinsightsintotumorheterogeneityandyieldsremarkablysimpleexplicitformulasforvariousquantities.

[Continuesonnextpage]

August . 2011 IMsBulletin . 5

2011 IMS Election ResultsWearepleasedtoannouncetheresultsofthe2011IMSelections.ThenextPresident-ElectisHansR.Künsch.ThefivenewCouncilmembers,forathree-yearterm,are:SandrineDudoit,SteveEvans,SoniaPetrone,ChristianP.Robert,andQiweiYao.866people(21%ofmembers)participatedintheelections.Thanksforvoting!

Returningtothethemeofdehydratedelephants,inthisproject,KavehandIhavebenefitedfromemailexchangeswithVladisPipiras,SidResnick,andGennadySamorodnitsky,hydratedhumanswhohelpedusnavigatethevoluminousliteratureofstablelaws.LetΛbeaone-sidedstablelawwithindexα.WhytheheckPeterBrockwellandBruceBrowninanarticleintheZf Win1978decidedtolookatΛ–αandtoproduceapowerseriesforitsdensitythathastwogammafunctionsinthedenominator,Idon’tknow.Probably,theyjustwrotedowntheformulabecausetheyhadthetoolstodoso.However,ithasbeenusefulformakingconnectionswithKaplan-Meieresti-matesofthesizeoftheprimarytumorwhenthepatiententersthedeadlystageIIIofthedisease.

TowrapupthisRamble,thetake-homemessage,whichIlearnedalmosttwenty-fiveyearsagoinworkwithSimonLevinisthis:whenyourproblemscomefromrealquestions,thentheanswersleadyoutoaterritorythatismoreinterestingthanwhenyoustartwiththeanswerandfigureoutthequestion.

Grindingmyotherax:probabilitytheorywasdesignedtosolveproblems,butmuchofwhatispublishedislikepoetryinEsperanto,anesotericartformthatcanbeappreciatedonlybyahand-fulofpeople.Isthisreallywhatwewantinour“yellowjournalism”?

NEW IMS EXECUTIVE SECRETARYAuroreDelaiglewillbecometheIMS’sExecutiveSecretaryfromAugust2,2011toJuly9,2014,follow-ingMartenWegkamp’sthree-yearterm.

AuroreisaPrincipalResearchFellowintheDepartmentofMathematicsandStatisticsattheUniversityofMelbourne,withresearchinterestsinnonparametricestimationofcurves,measurementerrors,deconvolutionproblems,functionaldataanaly-sis,andhigh-dimensionalproblems.SheisanassociateeditorforJCGS,JRSSB,Statistica Sinica,theJournal of Nonparametric Statistics andtheJournal of the Korean Statistical Society.

Aurore’swebpageishttp://www.ms.unimelb.edu.au/~aurored/

TheExecutiveSecretary’sroleisexplainedintheIMSHandbook,theonlinever-sionofwhichisathttp://imstat.org/handbook/officers.html#ExecSec

HansKünsch

SoniaPetrone

SandrineDudoit

ChristianRobert

SteveEvans

QiweiYao

[Continuedfrompreviouspage]

http://www.ms.unimelb.edu.au/~aurored/

http://imstat.org/handbook/officers.html#ExecSec


Theuseofregressionanalysestoprovideimportantinsightintoanarrayofproblemsisafundamentalapproachwithinthehealthsciences.Whetherthefocusisatthedetailedmolecularlevelorthebroadepidemiologicallevel,regressionanalysesaimtoteaseoutthelikelypartplayedbykeyvariables,ofteninthepresenceofcomplexsourcesofdiversityintheobservedandunderlyinghealthindica-tors.Theunderstandingofpatternsandsourcesofheterogeneityderivedfromthesemethodscanthenbeusedtoinformmorestructuredanalyses.

Fromastatisticalperspective,heterogeneityisnaturallymodelledviatheuseofarichclassofmodelsthatcanbroadlybereferredtoasmixturemodels.ThefundamentalstructuraluncertaintyassociatedwithsuchmodelsmakestheBayesianstatisti-calparadigmparticularlyattractivefordeliveringinterpretableinference.Bayesianmixturemodelshavebeenusedinthiswayinawiderangeofapplicationsspanningfrommolecularbiologyexperi-mentstodeterminedifferentialgeneexpression,togeographicalepidemiologyapplicationswhichstudydiseasepatternsacrossspacetosuggestpotentialenvironmentalriskfactors.Dependingonthecontext,interestcanbedirectedtowardsanumberoftasks,forexampletheinterpretationofsubgroupsortheclassificationandselectionofunusualpatterns.

Recently,attentionhasturnedtomultidimensionalmodelsfocussedonunderstandingthecombinedeffectsofmultiplepredic-tors(suchasbiomarkersorenvironmentalexposures)onthehealthofsubjects.Furthermore,manycurrentstudiesnowcollectdataondifferentstagesofbiologicalprocesseswiththeaimofenablingjointanalysisoflargesetsofpredictorsandofresponsesinordertodiscover,forexample,keypredictorsthatinfluencemanypheno-types.Thisisachallengingbi-directionalsituation,wherethenum-berofsubjectsisoftenmuchsmallerthanthenumberofpossiblepredictors,commonlyknownasthe‘largep,smalln’paradigm.

Insuchapplications,thesetofpredictorscanbeverylargeandalsocorrelatedinanintricateway.Thismeansthatinferenceviastandardregressionmodelsisplaguedbyinstabilityanddifficulty

ofinterpretation.Therearemanywaysinwhichprogresscanbemade,butthereducingthedimensionalityoftheproblemisoftenakeycomponentofsuccessfulanalyses.

Oneapproachtoaccomplishthisgoalistoincludewithintheanalysestheabilitytoclustermultivariatepatterns,usingthesubjectcovariateprofile,amultidimensionalvector,asthemainunitofinference.Adoptingaflexiblemixturemodel,thecovariateprofilesareiterativelyclusteredintogroups,whilstalsoallowingtheclusterassignmentstobeintroducedasrandomeffectsinaregressionmodeloftheresponse,therebypermittingtheresponsetoinfluencetheclusterassignment.Thus,itistheoveralleffectofcombinationsofcovariateswhichisassessedinasemi-parametricmanner.Althoughthetechnicaldetailsofsuchmodelsarefairlywellestablished,inordertoapplytheminepidemiology,itisimportanttofocusonissuesregardingtheinterpretabilityandexportabilityoftheinference.Carefulpost-processingoftheoutputisneededtocircumventlabellingissuesandtoallowthefulluncer-taintyoftheclusterassignmenttobepropagatedontotheinferenceforrandomeffectsofinterest.Asecond(andsometimescomple-mentary)approachfordimensionreductionistheinclusionofsomefunctionalitywithinthechosenmodeltoexplicitlyselectonlythosevariablesthatarestatisticallyassociatedwiththeresponse(s).Variableselectionforhighdimensionaldataisagenericcomponentofmanyanalyses.Inparticular,ingeneticepidemiologyoneofthemostsought-afterstatisticaloutputisasetofreproducible‘sparse’modelsthatselectonlyafewrelevantpredictors(i.e.SNPs,transcripts)amongstaverylargesetofpossiblecandidates,togetherwithgoodassessmentofhowuncertaintheirroleis.Thequestionofhowtobuildsuitablepriormodelsthatachieveacompromisebetweentheaimsofcontrollingsparsityandthatofborrowinginformationacrosstheresponsesinordertoenhancediscoveryofkeypredictorsisanactiveareaofresearch.

Iwilldiscusssomerecentresultsintheseareas,togetherwithcomputationalissues.Thetalkwillbeillustratedthroughoutbycasestudiesfromepidemiologyandintegrativegenomics.

SylviaRichardsonhasheldtheChairofBiostatisticsintheDepartmentofEpidemiologyandBiostatisticsat

ImperialCollegeLondonsince2000,andheadstheBiostatisticsgroup.AfterafirstdegreeinMathematics,she

receivedaPhDinprobabilitytheoryfromtheUniversityofNottinghamandaDoctorat ès sciences fromUniversité

ParisXI.SheheldlectureshippositionsatWarwickUniversityandUniversitéParisVandsubsequentlybecame

“DirecteurdeRecherches”intheFrenchResearchInstituteforMedicalResearch.ShewasawardedtheGuyMedal

inSilverfromtheRoyalStatisticalSocietyin2009andholdsaRoyalSocietyWolfsonResearchMeritawardforher

workonBayesianintegrativeanalysisinepidemiology,systemsbiologyandgenomics.HerMedallionLectureis

atJSMMiami,onTuesday,August2,at10:30am.

Medallion Lecture preview: SylviaRichardson

Recent developments in Bayesian methods for discovering regression structures: applications in the health sciences


Qi-ManShaoisChairProfessorintheDepartmentofMathematicsattheHongKongUniversityofScienceand

Technology.Hereceivedabachelor’sdegreeinMathematicsandamaster’sdegreeinprobability/statistics

fromHangzhouUniversityandthenreceivedaPhDinprobability/statisticsfromtheUniversityofScienceand

TechnologyofChina,undertheguidanceofProfessorXiruChen.HeisaFellowofIMS,andwasaninvited

speakerattheInternationalCongressofMathematiciansin2010.

Qi-Man’sprimaryresearchinterestsincludelimittheoryinprobability,largesampletheoryinstatistics,

self-normalizedlargedeviationtheory,high-dimensionalandlarge-scalestatisticalanalysis,Stein’smethodfor

normalandnon-normalapproximation;Gaussianrandomfields,randompolynomialsandmatricesandMonteCarlostudies.Hehas

servedontheeditorialboardsofAnnals of Applied Probability andAnnals of Statistics.

Qi-ManwillgivehisMedallionLectureatJSMMiami,onJuly31at4:00pm.

Medallion Lecture preview: Qi-ManShao

Normal and Non-normal Approximation by Stein’s MethodLetWnbeasequenceofrandomvariablesofinterest.AssumethatWnisasymptoticallystandardnormal.Whentheaccuracyofthenormalapproximationisthecentralconcern,therearemainlytwoapproachesforestimatingtheerroroftheapproximation.Oneapproachistostudytheabsoluteerrorsupz|P(Wn≥z)−(1−Φ(z))|viaaBerry-Esseentypebound.TheotherapproachistoestimatetherelativeerrorofP(W≥z)to1−Φ(z)throughaCramértypemoderatedeviation.AstandardandclassicalapproachtoBerry-EsseentypeboundandCramértypemoderatedeviationisFouriertransformand/orconjugatemethods.

However,therearemanysituationswhere,forexample,forWnunderdependencestructure,theaforementionedmethodsareverydifficulttouse.ItisStein(1972)whointroducedatotallydifferentmethodtodeterminetheaccuracyofthenormalapproximationtothedistributionofasumofdependentrandomvariables.Themethodhasbeenshowntobeapowerfultoolinestimatingaccuracyofvariousprobabilityapproximations.Incontrasttotheclassicalcharacteristicfunctionmethod,themeritofStein’smethodisthatitworkswellforbothindependentanddependentrandom

variables.Themethodhasbeenextendedbeyondthenormalapproximationandappliedtoproblemsinvariousareas.

Inthislecture,wewillgiveabriefsurveyofrecentdevelop-mentsofStein’smethodforbothnormalandnon-normalapproximation.Motivatedbyapplicationstofalsediscoveryrateinsimultaneoushypothesistests,ourfocuswillbeontheCramér-typemoderatedeviationsforStudentizednon-linearstatistics,andforWnunderageneralframeworkoftheSteinidentitywhichincludesthesumofrandompermutationarrays,thebinaryexpansionofarandominteger,theanti-votermodelonacompletegraphandtheCurie-Weissmodelasspecialcases.Ontheotherhand,whenthelimitingdistributionofWnisunknown,anexchangeablepairsapproachwillbeintroducedtoidentifythelimitingdistributionandevaluatetheabsoluteerrorofapproximation.ApplicationstoCurie-Weissmodelatthecriticaltemperatureandothermodelsinstatisticalphysicswillalsobediscussed.

ThereseemtobemanyunsettledquestionsandmuchterritorythatcanbeexploredwiththehelpofStein’smethod.Indeed,thepotentialofStein’smethodisunbounded.

IMS activities at JSMIfyou’recomingtotheJointStatisticalMeetingsinMiami,Florida(July30toAugust4),pleasedropbytheIMSboothintheExpotosayhello.Ifyourstudentswillbethere,remindthemthatIMSmembershipisfree,andprovidesthemwithonlineaccesstoalltheIMSjournals—theycanjoinupattheIMSboothoronline.

TherewillbeanopportunitytosocializewithotherIMSmembersandJSMattend-eesaftertheIMsPresidentialAddressandAwardsCeremony,onMondayAugust1from8:00–11:00pm,inBallroomDattheConventionCenter.Hopetoseeyouthere!

ForprogramandotherinformationaboutMiami,pleaseseetheJSMwebsite,athttp://amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011/

http://amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011/


AnirbanDasGuptawrites:PhDstudentsinstatisticsdepartmentsacrosstheworldareaskedtotakeacourseonthecoretheoryofinference,theso-called“qualifiertheorycourse”.ItookmineattheISIinCalcuttain1977.ItwasmasterfullytaughtbyK.K.Roy,andcoveredwhatwasessentiallygloballyregardedasthecoreofinference,exponentialfamilies,sufficiency,ancillarity,complete-nessandUMVU,MLEs,FisherinformationandCramér-Rao,asymptoticsofMLE,consistency,deltaandSlutsky’stheorem,NPlemma,MPandUMPtests,MLRfamilies,LRT,UMAconfidencesets,dualityofconfidenceandtesting,basicgametheory,Bayesrules,admissibility,minimaxity,Wald’sSPRT,andranktests.BickelandDoksumhadjustcomeoutandhadn’treachedIndia;weusedFerguson(1967),andweallagreedthatitwasafulfillingcourse.

Butthatwasthen,andthisisnow.Throughpurelypersonalinteractions,Ihavehadanecdotalevidenceofsomesentimentthatapartofwhatwaslongregardedasthecoreofinferenceisnotconsideredtoorelevantnow.Theeventsandthediscoveriesofthelastthirtyyearsmakeitnecessarytore-evaluatewhatisthecoretheoryofstatisticsthatafreshPhDoughttobeexpectedtoknow,andunderstand.Togetasenseofmycolleagues’pulse,IcheckedoutthesyllabiofthecorecourseatBerkeley,Stanford,Chicago,Washington,UPenn,CarnegieMellon,andDuke.Ialsocontacted11expertsintheUS,Europe,Australia,andIndia,andsolicitedtheirdefinitionofwhatshouldbeinthequalifiertheorycourse.Theresponsesquitesurprisedme.

Iwassurprisedbythefantasticdiversityoftheopinionsonwhatshouldbeinthatfirsttheorycourse.Theintersectionofthedefinitionswasempty,barringsufficiency,exponentialfamilies,andMLEs.Buttherewasanunmistakabledesiretoputlessemphasisonparametrics,unbiasedness,onUMPtests,oncertainpartsofdecisiontheory,traditionalsequentialanalysis,andtheoldnonparametrics.Ontheotherhand,theresponsesincludedmany“newage”topics:thebootstrap,AICandBIC,VCtheory,empiri-calprocesses,permutationtests,EM,MCMC,functionestimation,sparsity,causalinference,extremevalues,andsomemore.

Theresponsesarerevealing.Theytoldmethatwhilethereisasharphungerforchangeinthattraditionalcorecourse,itisnolongerpossibletohaveanapproximateglobalconsensusonwhatthatfirstcourseshouldteach.Thecorecoursewillprobablybecomeratherlocal,andwewouldn’tbeabletoassumethatafreshPhDfromastatisticsprogramhasseenandbeentestedonasetofcommontopicsininference.

WhatwouldIteachpersonallyinthatfirstcourse?AfterreadingalltheresponsesthatIreceived,IthinkIpersonallyagreewiththesetwostatementsfromJohnMardenandPhilipStark:the first math-stat course should be about how to think about models and infer-ence and the mathematical (as opposed to computational) framework to attack the problems;and,you need to have some idea of what’s possible, and where to look for approaches, ideas, inspirations, theorems.Ithinkmyowndottrina à nouveau couldbesomethinglikethis,thetopicsandthenumberof50-minutelecturesoneach(43intotal).

Problemsandbasicprinciplesofinference,selectingandevaluatingaprocedure,lossandrisk,bias,variance,parametricvs.nonparametricmodelling,optimalityvs.robustness,Hogg’sadaptiveestimate(nontechnical;2);modelling,location-scale,expo-nentialfamilies,mixtures,heavytails,non/semi-parametricmodels,dependence(4);datasummary,likelihoodfunction,sufficiency,factorizationandRao-Blackwell,definitionofUMVU(3);scorefunction,Fisherinformation,informationmatrix,Cramér-Rao(3);MLEs,generalandinexponentialfamily,somenonregular,somemultiparameter,nonexistence,difficultyofcomputing,refertoEMinBickel-Doksum(3);simulatetheCauchyMLEandmedian,statementofPortmanteau,asymptoticnormalityandCramér-Raoconditions,observedinformationandsandwich,twoparameterGamma,plug-in,deltaandSlutsky,applications(5);priors,poste-riors,conjugatepriors,posteriormeans,posteriorandBayesrisk,comparisonwithMLE,Bayesvs.minimaxity,fromBickel-Doksum(5);testing,errorprobabilitiesandpower,NPlemma,applica-tions,statementofUMPonesidedtests(3);LRT,threeexamplesofBickel-Doksum,chisquarelimit(3);confidencesets,dualitywithtesting,t interval,asymptoticconfidenceintervals,defini-tionofposteriorcredibleinterval(3);theempiricalCDF;SLLN,Glivenko-CantelliandDKW;purpose,use,andscopeofbootstrap;bootstrapbiasandvarianceestimation;consistencyofbootstrap,permutationtests(4);apersonalselectionfromJames-SteinandDonoho-Johnstoneestimates,sparsity,SURE,Gaussiansamplemaximum,kernels,RKHSandfunctionestimation,modelchoice,AIC,BIC,VCandmartingaleinequalities,Bayesfactors,Dirichlet

process,Bernstein-vonMises(5).Perhapssomeoneelsewilladdresswhatshould

betaughtinStat100.Opinionswillprobablydif-feronthat,too.Butthat’sanissueforanotherday.

Anirban’s Angle: ANewCore?

LogontotheBulletinwebsiteandshare

yourcommentsathttp://bulletin.imstat.org



ProfessorTimRobertsonpassedawayonApril5,2010,totheregretofhiscol-leagues,familyandfriends.Hisformerstudents,collaboratorsandcolleagueswhohadheldhiminhighesteemthroughouthisdistinguishedacademiccareercovering39yearsintheDepartmentofStatisticsandActuarialScienceatTheUniversityofIowamournedhispassing.

ProfessorRobertsondiedsuddenlyattheageof72.HewasprecededindeathbyhislovingwifeandlifelongcompanionJoan,whohadpassedawayonFebruary25,2010.Heissurvivedbyhisfourchildren--Kelly,Jana,DougandMike--andsixgrandchildren.

TimothyJoelRobertson,sonofHelenOliver-GirdnerandstepfatherFlickGirdner,wasbornOctober4,1937,inDenver,CO.Tim’sfamilymovedtoChilicothe,MO,in1942.HegraduatedfromChilicotheHighSchoolin1955.TimattendedtheUniversityofMissouriinColumbiaandreceivedhisB.A.inmath-ematicsin1959.HeandJoanweremarriedpriortohissenioryearatM.U.TimenteredGraduateSchoolinthefallof1959,andobtainedhisM.S.inmathematicsin1961.TimacceptedanAssistantProfessorpositioninmathematicsatCornellCollegeinMountVernon,IA,andheandJoanalsoservedashouseparentsinthemen’sdormi-toryfrom1961–1963.

TimandJoanenjoyedtheenvironmentatCornellCollege,buttheydecidedtoreturntoColumbia,MO,in1963forTimtopursuehisPh.D.Tim’sthesisadvisoratM.U.wasH.D.(Dan)Brunk,andheandTimestablishedaclosefriendshipwhichexisteduntilDan’sdeathin2009.DaninstilledanappreciationformathematicalrigorandathrillofresearchinTimthatcarriedthroughTim’sentireacademiclife.

TimjoinedtheDepartmentofStatisticsandActuarialScienceattheUniversityofIowaasanewPh.D.in1965.Timwasagoodteacherandresearcher,andwaspromotedtoAssociateProfessorin1968,andtofullProfessorin1974.EighteenstudentswrotetheirPh.D.dissertationsunderProfessorRobertson’sguidance.Mostbecamesuccessfulscholarsintheirownrights,andseveralmaintainedcontactwithProfessorRobertsonuntilhisdeath.

ProfessorRobertsonwasasuccessfulandwell-respectedscholar.HewasaFellowofboththeAmericanStatisticalAssociationandtheInstituteofMathematicalStatistics.HewaselectedtomembershipintheInternationalStatisticalInstitute,andhewasanactivememberoftheMathematicalAssociationofAmerica.ProfessorRobertsonwastheleadauthor(withF.T.WrightandR.L.Dykstra)onthemonograph“OrderRestrictedStatisticalInference,”whichwasconsideredthestandardreferenceonthetopic.TimwastherecipientofaUniversityofIowaCollegiateTeachingAwardin1990andwasgenerallyrecognizedasbeinganoutstandingteacher.TimservedasAssociateEditorforseveralstatisticaljournals,andalsotookanactiveroleinUniversityactiv-ity.HeservedontheEducationalPolicyCommitteeforseveralyearsaswellasontheBoardinControlofAthletics.ThoughTimwasademandingadvisor,hewasalsonurturing.Thoughhehadhighexpectationsofhisstudents,hisofficedoorwasalwaysopentothem.Timwasenthusiasticintheclassroom,andmanyofhisstudentsrecallbeingkeptontheirtoesbyrelevantques-tionsbeingdirectedatthem.

TimeventuallydevelopedmanyinterestsoutsidetheUniversity.Timlovedtheoutdoorsandoftentookhisfamilyoncampingandcanoeingtripstothe

Obituary: Timothy Robertson1937–2010

Tim Robertson

BoundaryWatersofMinnesotaandvariousIowarivers.Timtrainedhuntingdogs,competedinfieldtrialswiththem,andwasafoundingmemberoftheEasternIowaShootingDogAssociation.In1992,TimandJoanpurchasedafarmneartheCedarRiveratCedarBluffs.Theybuiltamodesthome(referredtoastheCabin)onthefarm,andtheCabinwaslaterenlargedtobecometheelegant,comfortablehomethatheandJoanenjoyeduntiltheirdeaths.

Timlovedhischildren,grandchildren,children’sspouses,dogs,jawbreakers,horses,fishing,redsweatshirts,beautifulsunsets,risquésongs,hisfourwheeler,ridinghisbiketowork,agooddebate,andpopcorn.Timwasamanofgreatintellect,passion,laughter,strengthandlovethatwillbemissedbyallwhoknewhim.

Richard DykstraProfessor of Statistics & Actuarial Science

College of Liberal Arts and SciencesThe University of Iowa.

This obituary first appeared on the University of Iowa’s website and is reproduced

by kind permission,


BernardHarrispassedawaypeacefullyonJanuary28,2011,atTulaneUniversityMedicalCenterinNewOrleans,La.,fol-lowingcomplicationsfromheartsurgery.

BernardwasbornonJune20,1926,inNewYorkCity,thesonofSamuelS.andEllaL.(Heyman)Harris.Anacademicallyprecociousyoungster,hegraduatedatanearlyagefromTownsend-HarrisHighSchool,andthenenteredCityCollegeofNewYork.Duringhiscollegeeducation,hewasdraftedintothearmy,assignedtotheCounterIntelligenceCorps,andsenttoGermanytowardstheendofWorldWarII.Uponcompletionofmilitaryservice,hefinishedhisbachelor’sdegreeinbusinessadministrationatCityCollegein1946.Hechangedhisacademicfocustomathematicsandstatistics,earnedamaster’sdegreefromGeorgeWashingtonUniversityin1953,andinoneyear,completedhisdoctorateatStanfordUniversityin1958.

Duringtheyearsbetweenhismaster’sanddoctoratedegrees,heworkedasastatisticianattheUSCensusBureauandasamathematicianfortheNationalSecurityAgency.Aftercompletinghisdoctorate,hebecameanassociateprofessorintheDepartmentofMathematicsattheUniversityofNebraska–Lincoln.HemovedtoMadison,Wisconsin,toworkasaprofes-sorintheMathematicsResearchCenterattheUniversityofWisconsin–Madisonfrom1964to1985,andasaprofessorintheStatisticsDepartmentattheUniversityofWisconsin-Madisonfrom1966to2002.AfterhisretirementfromUW–Madison,herejoinedthefacultyoftheStatisticsDepartmentattheUniversityofNebraska-Lincolnandwasanadjunctfacultymemberthereuntilhisdeath.Bernardenjoyedvisit-ingprofessorshipsattheTechnicalInstituteinMunich,Germany;TechnicalUniversity

ofEindhoven,Netherlands;UniversityofLund,Sweden;theMathematicsInstituteSteklova,Moscow,Russia;UniversityofMünster,Germany;HeinrichHeineUniversityinDüsseldorf,Germany;andKTHinStockholm.

BernardwasamemberofmanycommissionsandadvisoryboardsforthegovernmentincludingareviewboardoftheUSNuclearRegulatoryCommissionandtheStatisticsTaskForcefortheFAA/DODCommitteeonMaterialProperties.HewasanelectedfellowoftheInstituteofMathematicalStatisticsandtheAmericanStatisticalAssociation.HewasproudtobeoneoffoundingmembersoftheSectiononRiskAnalysisfortheAmericanStatisticalAssociationandservedasitsfirstchair.HewasamemberoftheClassificationSocietyofNorthAmerica,andservedonitsboardofdirectors.HewasalsoamemberoftheInternationalClassificationSocietyandtheAmericanMathematicalAssociation.HewasarecipientofthePioneersofScienceAward.ProfessorHarriswasaperennialadvocateofandcontributortostatisticalsciencefortheDepartmentoftheArmy.HeparticipatedaspartoftheMathematicsResearchCenteratWisconsinthatsup-portedtheArmyinaddressingresearchquestionsandpresentedhisworkatcount-lessstatisticalconferencessponsoredbytheArmyspanningtheyears,1964–2010.

Hiscontributionstoriskanalysis,reli-ability,probability,andstatisticalinferenceswithapplicationtoopenDODquestions,suchasthesurvivabilityofsubterraneantargets,wasrecognizedin1982withtheWilksAwardforContributionstoStatisticalMethodologiesinArmyResearch,DevelopmentandTesting.Hisworkcontinuedtoaddresscurrentproblemsinhislateryears,withrecentworkconcerning

Obituary: Bernard Harris1926–2011

mathematicalmethodsincombatingterrorism,andhis2010paperentitled“RandomContaminationofSemiconductorMaterials.”

Bernardwastheauthorofabook,Theory of Probability, andtheeditorofSpectral Analysis of Time series andGraph Theory and its Applications.Hepublishedhundredsofarticlesandreviewsinprofes-sionaljournalsoverthecourseofhiscareer.Hewasmostproudofhisworkinrandommappings,combinatorics,reliabilityandriskanalysis.

Inadditiontohisacademicinterests,Bernardenjoyedawidevarietyofmusic(classical,operaandjazz),readinginseverallanguages,gourmetcooking,filmsanddoingtheNew York Timescrosswordpuzzles(inink).Helovedtocreatesimpleandcomplexpuns.

Mostofall,Bernarddeeplylovedandappreciatedhisfamilyandsteadfastlysup-portedthemwithhisadviceandpresence.BernardwasamemberoftheBethIsraelCongregationinMadison.

BernardmarriedAnita(Greenberg)in1949.HeandAnitahadfourchildren,ShelleyNolte,MarkHarris(Katherine),DavidHarris(Susan)andSusanHandrich(Tom).Hiswife,Anita,diedin1977.HemarriedSusanStephensBurnsin1983,andwasastepfathertoLauraBurns(BradSinner)andErinCharles(Jesse).Hewastheproudgrandfatherofseven.Hewaspre-cededindeathbyhisparents;hisbrothers,AlanandAlvin;hisfirstwife,Anita;andhisbeloveddaughter,Shelley.

MemorialsmaybedirectedtotheAmericanStatisticalAssociationtosupporttheeducationofyoungstatisticians.

Written by members of the Harris family. Reproduced with permission from

http://madison.com/obit/179112

http://madison.com/obit/179112


Meeting report: ISOSS Lahore Conference

MunirAhmed,theFoundingPresidentofIslamicCountries

SocietyofStatisticalSciences(ISOSS),reportsontheLahoreISOSS

Conference,whichemphasizedtheincreasedstrategicroleof

statisticians.

The8thInternationalConferenceonRecentAdvancesinStatistics:“Statistics,BiostatisticsandEconometrics,”washeldonFebruary8–9,2011attheNationalCollegeofBusinessAdministrationandEconomics(NCBA&E),Lahore,Pakistan.TheconferencewasorganizedbytheIslamicCountriesSocietyofStatisticalSciences(ISOSS)incollaborationwiththeNCBA&EinhonouroftheISOSSPresident,DrShahjahanKhan,forhisoutstandingcontributioninleadingISOSSasaninternationalprofessionalorganisationofstatisticiansthroughorganisationofanumberofinternationalconferencesandpromotingstatisticsglobally.

Delegatesfromaroundtheworld,includingAustralia,Europe,MiddleEast,SouthAsiaandUSA,presentedtheirrecentresearchoutputsindiverseareasofstatistics.Atotalof320participantsfromPakistanandothercountriestookpartintheconferencedeliberations.Invariousscientificsessions,142researchpaperswerepresentedhighlightingrecentadvancesinstatistics,biostatisticsandeconometrics.Unfortunately,manyWesternparticipantswereunabletopresenttheirsubmittedpapersduetotravelrestrictionstoPakistan.AlargenumberofstatisticianswhocouldnotjointheconferencesenttheirmessagesofappreciationemphasizingthegreatcontributionsofDrShahjahanKhan.

MianShamimHaider,aformerFederalMinisterofRailwaysandSportsoftheGovernmentofPakistan,inauguratedtheconfer-enceasthechiefguest.Heemphasizedtheuseofstatisticsinplan-ninganddevelopmentofPakistanandhowhigh-techindustriescanbeestablishedinPakistanbyimportingthelateststatisticaltechniquesanddevelopingnewindigenoustechnologiesbasedonrecentadvancesinPakistan.ThefoundingPresidentofISOSSDrMunirAhmad,andVice-PresidentofISOSSDrMohammadHanifMian,spokeintheopeningsession.AllthespeakersspokehighlyofthegroundbreakingworkofDrShahjahanKhan,andthechiefguestpresentedacresttohimtomarkhisremarkablecontributionstothepromotionanddevelopmentofstatistics.

InhisaddressDrShahjahanKhanhighlightedhowthepercep-tionofstatisticshaschangedfromameretoolofcalculationofnumberstomakingdecisionsinthefaceofuncertainlyandtakingtheroleofstrategistsforgovernmentandbusiness.Heemphasizedmorevisibleanddominantpresenceofstatisticstothesolutionofcomplexissuesthehumanityfacestoday.Statisticiansareuniquelypositioned,hesaid,tocontributesignificantlyinaddressingthe

burningproblemsofourtime.Statisticshascomeupwithsolutionstomanyproblemswhereotherdisciplineshavefailed.

OneofthemainattractionsoftheconferencewastheofficialopeningofISOSSHouse,whichhadbeenrecentlycompleted.TheparticipantsreflectedonthedreamofthefoundingPresidentofISOSS,DrMunirAhmad,andthankedeveryonewhohadcontributedtotheprojectfinanciallyandotherwise.TheofficeofISOSShasnowbeenshiftedtotheISOSSHouseandithasfacili-tiesforoffices,library,computerlab,trainingandmeetingroomsetc.Inthenextphaseoftheproject,ISOSSplanstobuildfacilitiestoaccommodatevisitingscientistsandresearchworkerstopromoteexcellenceinstatisticalteaching,learningandcollaborativeresearch.

TheBusinessSessionoftheconferencerecommendedunani-mouslythat:inPakistantheNationalStatisticalCouncilmustberevived,therecently-createdPakistanBureauofStatisticsshouldbeproperlystaffedbyqualifiedstatisticalscientists,Pakistanshouldtakenecessarystepstomeettherequirementsforbecomingastatistically-advancedcountry,theGovernmentmustworkoninternationalbodiesparticularlyintheUNO,UNDPetc.forinvit-inglocalstatisticalexpertsbyothercountriesasadvisors,establishStatisticalResearchStationineachprovinceforthediscoveryofnewknowledgeanddevelopmentofnewtechniques,conductmicro-censusesateveryalternateyearfortheupdatingofpopula-tiongrowth,andaddressanimmediateneedforanInternationalJournalofOfficialStatistics.

Dr Munir Ahmed (left), former Minister Mian Shamim Haidar presenting the crest of honour to Dr Shahjahan Khan, University of Southern Queensland, Australia


Ann Appl Stat paper in “Hockey Stick” debateThe “Hockey Stick” Debate: new study finds “substantial uncertainty” with temperature reconstructions using natural proxiesApressreleasefromtheKelloggSchoolof

Management,homeofoneoftheauthors

ofacontroversialpaperintheAnnalsof

AppliedStatistics,outlinesafewofthe

issues:

Since1998,climatescientistshaveattemptedtoreconstructglobalannualtemperatureoverthelastmillenniumusingnaturalproxiessuchastreeringsandicecores.However,anewstudyfindssubstan-tialuncertaintyinthesereconstructions.

Intheirresearch,[IMSmembers]ProfessorsBlakeleyMcShaneoftheKelloggSchoolofManagementatNorthwesternUniversityandAbrahamWyneroftheWhartonSchoolattheUniversityofPennsylvania,findthatnaturalproxiesareweakpredictorsofglobalannualtempera-turesoverthelastonethousandyears.

Proxy-basedtemperaturereconstructionssuchastherenowned“hockeystick”graphhavearguablybecomethemosticonicillustrationofglobalwarming.Thehockey

stickisatemperaturereconstructionwhichfeaturesalongflat“handle”indicatingtem-peratureswererelativelyconsistentfor900yearsfollowedbyasharpupward“blade”indicatingthattemperaturesdramaticallyincreasedoverthepast100years.

“Weconcludeunequivocallythattheevidencefora‘long-handled’hockeystickislackinginthedata,”theauthorswrote.Thehandleofthehockeystick“isbestunder-stoodtobeafeatureofregressionandlessareflectionofourknowledgeofthetruth...Thefundamentalproblemisthatthereisalimitedamountofproxydatawhichdatesbackto1000AD;whatisavailableisonlyweaklypredictiveofglobalannualtempera-ture.”Whiletheydonotdenytheexistenceofclimatechange,theybelievethecaseasitpertainstoproxy-basedtemperaturereconstructionshasbeenoverstated.

Intheirstudy,thestatisticiansassessedthereliabilityoftemperaturereconstruc-tionsandtheirstatisticalsignificanceagainstvariousmodels.Additionally,theycomparedexistingreconstructionsofNorthernHemisphereaverageannual

landtemperatureoverthelastmillenniumtotheirownreconstruction.Whiletheirreconstructionproducedtemperatureesti-matesoverthelast500to1000yearswhichlargelymatchedthoseproducedbyclimatescientists’models,McShaneandWynerfoundsubstantiallylargeruncertaintyinter-valsascomparedtotheothermodels.

“Naturalclimatevariabilityisnotwellunderstoodandisprobablyquitelarge,”theauthorswrote.“Itisnotclearthattheproxiescurrentlyusedtopredicttempera-tureareevenpredictiveofitattheannualordecadalscaleoverseveralcenturies.Nonetheless,paleoclimatologicalreconstruc-tionsconstituteonlyonesourceofevidenceintheAnthropogenicGlobalWarning(AGW)debate.”

Thestudy,“AStatisticalAnalysisofMultipleTemperatureProxies:AreReconstructionsofSurfaceTemperaturesOvertheLast1000YearsReliable?”waspublishedinMarch2011issueofThe Annals of Applied Statistics.

AOAS Editor’s commentBradleyEfron,Editor-in-ChiefofThe Annals of Applied Statistics,notesthatthearticlewaspublishedwith13commentar-ies,bybothstatisticiansandclimatespecial-ists,mostofwhichwerequitecritical.

Oh? Not that kind of hockey stick?

In Other News: AOAS in the News!TheNew York Times featuredanarticleonJuly8aboutfalsecancercuremedicine.Thearticle,byGinaKolata,creditsThe Annals of Applied Statisticswithpublishingthekeywhistle-blowingarticle:apaperbyKeithBaggerlyandKevinCoombes(AOAS2009,Vol.3,No.4).ReadKolata’sarticleathttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/08/health/

research/08genes.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/08/health/research/08genes.html

http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.aoas/1300715166

http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.aoas/1267453929


InFebruary2010thedirectorofmy(medicalresearch)institutecreatedacommitteetoformulatepoliciesand

actionspromotinggenderequity(GE),withtheunderstandingthathewoulddowhateverwasinhispowertoimplementitsrecommendations.

Whatistheproblem?Statisticscanhelpusseeit.Trendsinthepercentageoffemalesatdifferentacademiclevelscanbeaneye-opener.Inmyinstitute,nearly60%oftheundergraduateandPhDstudentsarewomen,abouthalfofourpost-doctoralscientistsarewomen,25%ofourlabheadsarewomen—butjustoneofour15divisionheads,andtwoofour21fullprofessors,arewomen.Theseproportionshavebarelychangedinthelastdecade,andthedis-paritieswereevengreaterfurtherback.Ofcoursestatisticsalonedon’tprovethatthereisaproblem.TheintroductorycommentsbyProfessorLotteBailyn,thenchairoftheMITfaculty,toalandmark1999reportputitnicely:Our first instinct is to deny that a problem exists (if it existed, it would surely have been solved by now), or to blame it on the pipeline or the circumstances and choices of individual women. Shecontinued, None of these, however, explains the inequities surfaced by the Committee.

Whydoesitmatter?ProfessorRachelWebsteroftheUniversityofMelbourne’sphysicsdepartmentsaidthis,atarecentGEworkshop:It is abundantly clear that women and men are equally talented in their capacity for scientific research. However they may not operate in the same way within our social context. Our challenge is to create

the environment that realises all that talent, rather than just a fraction of it.

Itcameasnosurprisetometolearnthat,tothewomenonourGEcommittee,thesinglemostimportantGEissueischild-care.Atlastourinstituteisdoingsome-thingaboutthat,althoughitwillclearlybesometimebeforeitisadequatelyaddressed.Iwassurprisedtolearnhowmuchisgoingonelsewhere topromoteGE,andembar-rassedtorealizethatIhavebeendraggingmyfeetforaquarterofacentury.

ManyUSuniversitiesnowhaveanofficeorcentreofWork/Life,tohelpimplementfamily-friendlypoliciesonparenting,child-andelder-care.Goodpoliciesontenureclockextension,modifieddutiesafterthearrivalofnewchildren,flexibleworkingpatterns,andemergencyassistance,arewidespread.Forexample,UCBerkeleygivesonesemesteroffteachingforallnewparents,andtwosemestersoffforthebirthparent.Thisgivesasemesterfortransitioningandresearchcatch-up,andasemesterforthephysicalmaternityleave.TheUniversityofMichigangivesbothtobothparents.TherearenowmanypoliciesonthesemattersinplacearoundtheUS,institutionalcontributionstoGE.

Inmyowninstitute,wenowtrytocon-finemeetingtimesto9:15–4:30;wehaveagenerouschild-caresubsidyforselectedindividuals;there’saprivateroomwheremotherscanbreast-feed,orexpressandstoremilk;afamilyroomforemergencychild-careisplanned;andwearetryingtomakeiteasiertoworkfromhome.Thecapacityexiststohiretemporarytechnicalassistanceforcontinuityofeffortduringmaternityleave.Wehavea“WomeninScience”lectureseries.Wesendwomenonleadership-trainingcoursesandwefundafamily-friendlyviewingroomataseriesofannualnationalconferences,

ChangesofthekindIhavejust

mentionedaretheeasiesttobringabout.Theideasmightcomefromthosebelow,buttheirimplementationisfromthetop.Andnotethattheytendtobeaimedatwomeninthefirst10–15yearsoftheircareers,andspecificallyaddresstheissueofchildren.Differentpoliciesandpracticesareneededtoaffectthemiddleandlateryearsofawoman’scareer,andtoincludewomenwhodonothavechildren.

Howcanwebringaboutchangestoinstitutionalandbroaderprofessionalcul-tures,toensurethatallwomenrealizetheirpotential?Therearenoquickfixeshere.Committeesaddressinghiring,prizes,con-ferenceprograms,andotherdecisionsmustconsciouslylookforwomenasfellowcom-mitteemembers,candidatesorspeakers,sincequalifiedfemalescanbeoverlookedonallfronts.Effectiveanduniformpoliciesformentoringalljuniorcolleaguesareneeded.Womenmayrequiremoresupportastheyapproachkeycareertransitionpoints,byencouragementtoapplyforpositionsorfellowships,andbyhaving“champions”inthesystemtopromotetheirinterests,e.g.throughanetworkofseniorcolleagues.Theremustbeequitabledistributionofrewards,resourcesandresponsibilities—salaries,fellowships,awards,space,teachingandcommitteeassignments—andeffectivemechanismstonoticeandaddressinequitieswhentheyarise.

Ibelievegenderequityis achievable,butgettingtherewillrequireimagina-tiveandsustainedeffortonthepartofallofus.

Terence’s Stuff: GenderEquityTerry Speed believes that gender equity is not just desirable but possible and beneficial—but it is not an easy journey


At a glance:

forthcoming IMS Annual Meeting and JSM dates

2011IMS Annual Meeting @

JSM: MiamiBeach,FL,July30–August4,2011

2012IMS Annual Meeting

@ World Congress:

İstanbul,Turkey,July9–14,2012

JSM: SanDiego,CA,July28–August2,2012


@ JSM: Montréal,Canada,August3–8,2013

2014IMS Annual Meeting:

Sydney,Australia,July7–11,2014

JSM: Boston,MA,August2–7,2014


@ JSM: Seattle,WA,August8–13,2015

IMS meetings around the worldIMSco-sponsoredmeeting

NEWInternational Conference Ars Conjectandi 1713–2013October 15–16, 2013Basel, Switzerlandwhttp://www.statoo.ch/bernoulli13/

2013marksthe300thanniversaryofthepublicationofJacobBernoulli’sbook,Ars Conjectandi,in1713.Ameet-inghasbeenorganizedtocelebratethis:the“InternationalConferenceArs Conjectandi 1713–2013”willbeheldOctober15–16,2013,inBasel,Switzerland.

IMSRepresentativesontheprogramcommitteeareHansKünschandLutzDümbgen.

IMSsponsoredmeeting

IMS Annual Meeting @ 2011 Joint Statistical MeetingsJuly 30 – August 4, 2011, Miami Beach, FLw http://amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011/

IMSsponsoredmeeting

IMS Annual Meeting @ 2013 Joint Statistical MeetingsAugust 3–8, 2013, Montréal, Quebec, Canadaw TBC

IMSsponsoredmeeting

2014 Joint Statistical MeetingsAugust 2–7, 2014, Boston, Mass., USAw TBC

IMSsponsoredmeeting

2012 Joint Statistical MeetingsJuly 28 – August 2, 2012, San Diego, CAw http://amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2012/

JointStatisticalMeetings,2011–2015

IMSAnnualMeetings,2012&2014

IMSsponsored

meeting

IMS Annual Meeting @ 2015 Joint Statistical MeetingsAugust 8–13, 2015Seattle, Washington, USAw TBC

IMSsponsoredmeeting

2012 World Congress/IMS Annual MeetingJuly 9–14, 2012Grand Cevahir Hotel & Convention Center, Istanbul, Turkeyw http://www.worldcong2012.org/

TheeighthWorldCongressinProbabilityandStatisticswillbeheldinIstanbulfromJuly9to14,2012.ItisjointlyorganizedbytheBernoulliSocietyandtheInstituteofMathematicalStatistics.Scheduledeveryfouryears,thismeetingisamajorworldwideeventforstatisticsandprobability,coveringallitsbranches,includingtheoretical,method-ological,appliedandcomputationalstatisticsandprobability,andstochasticprocesses.Itfeaturesthelatestscientificdevelopmentsinthesefields.

Contacts:ElvanCeyhanandMineÇağlar,Co-chairsoftheLocalOrganizingCommittee;ArnoldoFrigessi,ChairoftheProgramCommittee.

IMSsponsored

meeting

2014 IMS Annual MeetingJuly 7–11, 2014Sydney, Australiaw TBC

Thelocationforthe2014IMSAnnualMeetinghasbeenselectedasSydney,Australia.Detailswillfollow,butyoucanmarkyourcalendarsnow!

Istanbul’s Bosphorus Bridge connects Europe (on the left) and Asia (right)





http://www.worldcong2012.org/




http://www.statoo.ch/bernoulli13/





The Second IMS Asia Pacific Rim MeetingJuly 1–4, 2012Tsukuba, Japanw http://www.ims-aprm2012.org/

ProgramChairs:ByeongU.Parke [email protected]),RunzeLie [email protected]

Meetingpostponedfrom2011

SincethemassiveearthquakestruckJapanonMarch11,thelocalorganizingcommit-teeandthescientificprogramcommitteedecidedtopostponethemeetinguntilnextyear.WehaverescheduledittoJuly1–4,2012,andmovedittotsukuba,thesciencecityandacademiccenterofJapan,whichisabout60kmfromTokyo.

Weherebycordiallyinviteyoualltoattendthemeetingnextyear,whenwearecertainthatyouwillwitnessastrongrecoveryofJapanfromoneofthemostseverenaturaldisastersinrecenthistory.

Akimichi Takemura, LOC ChairByeong Park & Runze Li, SC Co-Chairs

IMSsponsoredmeeting

2013 ENAR/IMS Spring MeetingMarch 10–13, 2013Orlando, Florida, USAw http://www.enar.org/meetings.cfm

IMSsponsoredmeeting

2014 ENAR/IMS Spring MeetingMarch 16–19, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USAw http://www.enar.org/meetings.cfm

IMSsponsoredmeeting

2012 ENAR/IMS Spring MeetingApril 1–4, 2012Washington DC, USAw http://www.enar.org/meetings.cfm

IMSco-sponsoredmeeting

International Symposium in Statistics (ISS) on Longitudinal Data Analysis Subject to Outliers, Measurement Errors, and/or Missing ValuesJuly 16–18, 2012Memorial University, St. John’s, Canadaw www.iss-2012-stjohns.ca

IMSRep:BrajendraSutradhar


36th Conference on Stochastic Processes and their ApplicationsJuly 29 – August 2, 2013University of Colorado, Boulder, USAw TBC


International Statistics Conference 2011December 28–30, 2011Colombo, Sri Lankaw TBC

OrganizedbytheAppliedStatisticsAssociationofSriLanka(ASASL).Themeetinglocationisatthewater’sedgeinthecapitalcityofSriLanka.IMSRep:PeterHall.Thewebsiteisunderconstruction.


Colloquium in honor of Hans Rudolf Künsch on the occasion of his 60th birthdayOctober 3–4, 2011, ETH Zurich, SwitzerlandIMSReps:PeterBühlmann,MarloesMaathuis,SaravandeGeerw https://stat.ethz.ch/events/Colloquium_Kuensch

KeynotespeakersareJimBerger(DukeUniversity),StuartGeman(BrownUniversity),PeterGreen(UniversityofBristol).Invitedspeakersare:RainerDahlhaus(UniversityofHeidelberg),ArnoldoFrigessi(UniversityofOslo),ReinhardFurrer(UniversityofZurich),HavardRue(NorwegianUniv.S&TTrondheim),RetoKnutti(ETHZurich),ChristianP.Robert(UniversitéParis-Dauphine).

Hans R. Künsch

ENAR,2012–2014

http://www.ims-aprm2012.org/



http://www.enar.org/meetings.cfm



http://www.iss-2012-stjohns.ca

https://stat.ethz.ch/events/Colloquium_Kuensch


Other meetings around the worldConcentration inequalities and their applicationsJanuary 23–27, 2012Centre International de Rencontres Mathématiques (CIRM), Marseille, Francew http://www.cirm.univ-mrs.fr/

Theworkshopwillfocusonrecentadvancesandapplicationsofmeasureconcentrationandwillgatherparticipantsfromvari-ousareaswherethisideahasbeenusefulandfruitfultofavourexchangesandcollaborativeresearch.Thetopicsofinterestare,amongothers,asymptoticgeometricanalysis,probabilitytheory,statisticalmechanics,randommatrices,dynamicalsystems,(quan-tum)informationtheory,randomgraphs,randomizedalgorithms,statistics,compressedsensing,learningtheory.

Theworkshopwillbeorganizedaroundfourmini-coursesbyS.Chatterjee,CourantInstitute,USA;A.Guillin,UniversityofClermont-Ferrand,France;P.Massart,UniversityofParisXIatOrsay,France;andA.Panconesi(LaSapienzaUniversity,Roma)&D.Dubhashi(UniversityofTrier,Germany).Therewillalsobeinvitedtalksondifferenttopicscoveringthemaininterests.

TheCIRMcoversallthelivingexpensesbutnottravelexpenses.Lookingforwardtoyourparticipationtotheworkshop.Theorganizers:J.-R.Chazottes,EcolePolytechnique,Paris,FranceM.Ledoux,UniversityofToulouse,FranceF.Redig,RadboudUniversityofNijmegen,TheNetherlands

Analytical Methods in Statistics (AMISTAT)October 28–30, 2011Prague, Czech Republicw http://amistat2011.karlin.mff.cuni.cz

TheWorkshopAnalyticalMethodsinStatistics(AMISTAT)isheldinhonorofProfessorAbramKaganinPraguefromOctober28toOctober30,2011.ThemainspeakersareAbramKagan,IldarIbragimov,LevB.Klebanov,GerardLetac,LutzMattner,YakovNikitin,StephenPortnoy,YosefRinott,GeorgyShevlyakov.Discussant:DmitriiChibisov.Contact:[email protected]

orJanaJureckova:[email protected]

SecondAnnouncement

Third Latin American Meeting on Bayesian Statistics(3er Congreso Bayesiano de América Latina—COBAL)and XXXVIII National Meeting of Statistics(XXXVIII Jornadas Nacionales de Estadística—JNE)October 23–27, 2011Pucón, Chilew http://cobal2011.usach.cl

The3rdLatinAmericanMeetingonBayesianStatisticsandtheXXXVIIINational(Chilean)MeetingofStatistics,organizedbytheUniversidaddeSantiagodeChileincollaborationwithseveralnationaluniversities,willtakeplaceonOctober23–27,2011,attheexoticandbeautifulsoutherncityofPucón,Chile(http://www.

visitpucon.com).Themaingoalsofthisjointeventaretofacilitatetheexchange

ofrecentresearchdevelopmentsinstatisticalmethodologyandtheoreticaldevelopments(BayesianforCOBAL,miscellaneousforJNE),toestablishnewcollaborationsandpartnershipsamongattendants,andfinally,toprovideopportunitiesforstudentsandresearcherstoshareideasanddiscussstatisticalmethods.

ConfirmedInvitedSpeakersareTrevorHastie(StanfordUniversity,USA);PeterMüller(UniversityofTexas,Austin,USA);FabrizioRuggeri(CNR-IMATI,Italia);WilfredoPalma(PontificiaUniversidadCatólicadeChile);FernandoQuintana(PontificiaUniversidadCatólicadeChile);Jean-MichelMarin(UniversitéMontpellierII,France);AlexandraSchmidt(UniversidadeFederaldoRiodeJaneiro,Brasil);RamsésMena(UniversidadNacionalAutónomadeMéxico);andSujitGhosh(NorthCarolinaStateUniversity,USA).

TherewillbethematicsessionsrelatedtoIdentifiability,BiostatisticsandBayesianFoundations,aswellasanAMSBI(AppliedStochasticModelinginBusinessandIndustry)discussionpapersession.

Aconfirmedmini-courserelatestospecifictopicson“ItemResponseDataModeling”.Tentatively,thesecondoneisentitled“MeasurementErrorModeling”

Thethematicsessionswillincludeayoungstatisticianssessionfordoctoralstudentsinthefinalstageoftheirthesiswork,oryoungresearchers,whowanttoshareandshowtheirmorerecentdevelopments.Therewillalsobeoralcommunicationsandpostersessionsforcontributedpapers.

Registrationisavailableonthewebsite.Forforeignattendants,itisimportanttoberegisteredbeforethedeadline.Theymaymaketheirpaymentsthefirstdayofthemeeting.Seewebsitefordeadlines

Meetingemaile [email protected]

WearelookingforwardtoseeingyouinPucón!OrganizingCommittee

http://www.cirm.univ-mrs.fr/

http://amistat2011.karlin.mff.cuni.cz



http://cobal2011.usach.cl

http://www.visitpucon.com

http://www.visitpucon.com



Statistical Analyses for Next Generation Sequencing September 26–27, 2011Birmingham, Alabamaw http://www.soph.uab.edu/ssg/courses/nhgri_r13/ngsstat

TheUniversityofAlabamaatBirmingham’sSectiononStatisticalGeneticsispleasedtoannounceourNHGRI-fundedconferenceonStatisticalAnalysesforNextGenerationSequencing.

Next-generationsequencingtechnologyisimpactingalmostallaspectsofbiomedicalresearch.Thistechnologygeneratesanunprecedentedwealthofdatathatdemandsnovelanalysisstrate-gies.WhileITinfrastructureandbioinformaticsdevelopmentsareobviouslyrequiredtoenablesoundinformationextraction,sophisticatedstatisticalmethodologiesandalgorithmsarealsoessentialforinterpretingthedata.Inthisregard,weareorganizingaNHGRIfundedtwo-dayconference,callingstatisticians,geneticepidemiologists,bioinformaticians,andgenomebiologists,todis-cussthestatisticalchallengesandopportunitiesinnext-generationsequencingdataanalysis.Webelievethatthisconferencewillprovideavenueforexchangingofcutting-edgeinformationandideas,andfosteringcollaborationsamongmethodologists,analysts,andbiomedicalinvestigators.Topicsinclude:1. Newadvancesintheapplicationofnext-generationsequencing

technology2. RNA-seqandmiRNA-seqdataanalyses3. ChIP-seq,methyl-seqdataanalyses,andintegrationwithother

highdimensiondatatypes.4. Next-generationsequencingfordenovosequencingandrese-

quencing5. Incorporatingnext-generationsequencingdataintothegenetics

studyofcomplexdisease6. RareVariantAssociationAnalysesandnextgenerationsequenc-

ing7. SNPandstructurevariationanalysisusingnext-generation

sequencing8. Haplotypeanalysiswithsequencingdata

PosterSessionavailable!DeadlineforAbstractsubmissionforpostersandshorttalksisAugust14,2011.ShorttalkacceptancewillbenotifiedbyFriday,Aug21,2011.

InvitedSpeakers:HongkaiJi,SuzanneLeal,Xiaole(Shirley)Liu,AliMortazavi,RichardMyers,BenjaminRaphael,StephanieSantorico,HongyuZhao,ThomasWu.

Attendanceislimited.Pleaseregisterearly.Women,membersofunderrepresentedminoritygroupsandindividualswithdisabilitiesarestronglyencouragedtoapply.

NIMBioS Investigative Workshop: Mathematical Modeling of Intracellular MovementsOctober 24–26, 2011Knoxville, TNw http://nimbios.org/workshops/WS_intracellular_mv.html

TheNationalInstituteforMathematicalandBiologicalSynthesis(NIMBioS)isnowacceptingapplicationsforitsInvestigativeWorkshop,“MathematicalModelingofIntracellularMovements”tobeheldOctober24–26,2011,atNIMBioS.

Recentadvancesinlivecellmicroscopyhaveresultedinafloodoftime-lapseobservationsthatrevealahighdegreeofmotilityinsidecells.Quantitativeanalysisofthesemovementsisnecessarytogainafullunderstandingofintracellulardynamicsandtheirregulation.Thisanalysisisoftenhamperedbythesheercomplexityofthemovements,thegreatnumberofobjectstobetracked,andthediffractionlimitofopticalmicroscopes.Atthesametime,mathematicalandstatisticalmodelshavemadesignificantprogressinproducingfastalgorithmsthatreliablytrackmultipleobjectsinspace.Insomecases,thesemodelsweresuccessfullyappliedtocellbiologicaldatasets,butthefullpotentialofarigorousmathemati-calapproachthatcanbeemployedacrossawiderangeofbiologicalprocesseshasnotbeenrealized.ThisNIMBioSWorkshopwillbringtogetherexpertsfromcellbiologyaswellasmathematics,statistics,computationalscienceandphysicstodiscusscurrentapproachesandpossiblealternatives.

Formoreinformationabouttheworkshopandalinktotheonlineapplicationform,gotothewebsiteabove.

Ifneeded,applicantsmayrequesttravelandlodgingsupport.Participationislimited,andthoseselectedtoattendwillbenotifiedwithintwoweeksoftheapplicationdeadline.Applicationdeadline:July 24, 2011

The 2012 Stochastic Networks ConferenceJune 18–22, 2012MIT, Cambridge, MA, USAw http://stoch-nets-2012.lids.mit.edu/

Thiseventwillbringtogetherresearcherswhoshareaninterestinstochasticnetworkmodels,tosurveyrecentdevelopments,andidentifyfutureresearchdirections.Themeetingwillbestructuredinaworkshopformat,withapproximatelytwentyhour-longinvitedtalks,andamplefreetime,soastomaximizeinteractionsbetweenspeakersandparticipants,andtofacilitateafruitfulexchangeofideas.Inaddition,therewillbeapostersessionforcontributedpapers.

NEWNEW

NEW

http://www.soph.uab.edu/ssg/courses/nhgri_r13/ngsstat

http://nimbios.org/workshops/WS_intracellular_mv.html

http://stoch-nets-2012.lids.mit.edu/


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TheDepartmentofMathematicsatCornellUniversityinvitesapplicationsfortwotenure-trackAssistantProfessorpositions,orhigherrank,pendingadministrativeapproval,startingJuly1,2012.ThesearchesareopentoallareasofMathematicswithanemphasisontheareasofprobability,numbertheory,andPDE.TheDepartmentactivelyencouragesapplicationsfromwomenandminoritycandidates.

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Mexico: GuanajuatoPositions in Statistics at Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas (CIMAT), Guanajuato, Mexico CentrodeInvestigaciónenMatemáticas(CIMAT),locatedinGuanajuato,Mexico(www.cimat.mx),isafederallyfundedCONACYT(www.conacyt.gob.mx)researchcenterdevotedtoresearch,teachingandapplications.Itcomprisesdepartmentsinpureandappliedmathematics,probabilityandstatistics,andcomputerscience.Undergraduateprogramsinmathematics,andgraduate(master’sanddoctoral)programsinallrepresentedbranchesarefostered.SomeCIMATsignaturesaredynamicresearchgroupsinboththeoreticalandappliedfields,recruitmentofsomeofMexico’sfinestmathematicsstudents,atime-honoredtraditioninhostingnumerousaca-demicnationalandinternationalmeetings,consultingwithscientistsandindustryandgovernment,outreachprogramsforyoungsters,andtheadvancementofmathematicsandscienceinsociety.

TheDepartmentofProbabilityandStatistics(www.cimat.mx/index.php?m=3)invitesapplicationsfortwopositions,beginningasearlyasJanuary,2012.Allareasofstatisticsaresought,withpreferencegiventocurrent,challengingandimportanttopicswithpoten-tialforgroupdevelopmentandmultidisciplinarywork.

ApplicantsarerequiredtoholdaPh.D.degreeinstatisticsbythetimeofemployment.Dutiesconsistofresearchandgraduateandundergraduatelevelqualityteachinginamathematicallyinclinedcurriculum,forwhichtheSpanishlanguageisanasset,yetnotanabsoluterequirement.TheDepartmenthostsaMaster’sandDoctoralprograminProbabilityandStatistics.

Atotaloftwopositionsareavailable,inanycombinationofthefollowingthreetypes:

A)Postdoctoral, or young researcher position,foramaximumofthreeyears.Specificrequirements:i. Demonstratepotentialforimportantacademicresearchinstatistics.ii. WillingnesstoapplytotheSistemaNacionaldeInvestigadores(SNI)(www.conacyt.mx/SNI/Index_SNI.html,inSpanish),

afederal-funded,peer-reviewedresearchgrantagency.

B)Experienced researcher.Requirements:i. Anoteworthycareerinresearch,havingproductivityconsistentwithtimesincegraduation.ii. AcurriculumvitaethatisagreeableforapplicationtotheSNI(seeabove),atalevelconsistentwithtimesincegraduation.iii. Potentialforleadership.iv. Teachingexperienceinintroductoryandadvancedsubject-mattercoursesinundergraduateandgraduateprogramssupported

bytheDepartmentofProbabilityandStatisticsatCIMAT.

C)Sabbatical stay, or visitor position. Inadditiontotherequirementsdescribedaboveforoption(B),potentialforthestrengtheningofacademicprogramsandresearchattheDepartmentofProbabilityandStatistics.

InterestedapplicantsshouldsendaletterofapplicationtoDr.DanielHernándezHernández([email protected]),beforeNovember

30,2011,withthefollowingmaterialsattached:1)CurrentCurriculumvitae.2)Briefdescriptionofresearchtopics.3)WorkplanspanningthefirstyearatCIMAT.4)Twolettersofreference.5)Dateoflikelyincorporationandtypeofpositionsought.

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International Calendar of Statistical EventsIMS meetings are highlighted in maroonwith the logo, and new or updated entries have the NEW or UPDATED symbol. t means telephone, f fax, e email and w website. Please submit your meeting details and any corrections to Elyse Gustafson at [email protected]

July–August 2011

July30–August4:MiamiBeach,Florida.IMsAnnualMeetingatJsM2011.w http://amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011/

July31&August3:atJSMMiami.2011nIss/AsAWritingWorkshopforJuniorResearchersw http://www.amstat.org/

meetings/wwjr/

August 2011

August1–4:Boulder,Colorado,USA.UncertaintyQuantificationinscientificComputing.w http://www.nist.gov/itl/math/ifip-

woco-10.cfm

August1–5:SandbjergEstate,Sønderborg,Denmark.ConferenceinHonourofsørenAsmussen:newFrontiersinAppliedProb-abilitywwww.thiele.au.dk/asmussen

August11–13:UniversityofConnecticut,Storrs,USA.46thActuarialResearchConference.w http://www.math.uconn.

edu/~valdez/46arc/46arc-storrs.php

August15–19:Prague,CzechRepublic.nonparametricsandGeometrywhttp://nonparam11.karlin.mff.cuni.cz

August16–18:UniversityofWarwick,Coventry,UK.useR!2011w http://www.R-project.org/useR-2011

August17–19:Belfast,NorthernIreland.InternationalAssociationforofficialstatisticsconference“The Demography of Ageing and Official Statistics” w http://www.nisra.gov.uk/IAOS2011.html

August17–19:Copenhagen,Denmark.DynamicstatisticalModels[ISISatelliteMeeting]w http://statistics.ku.dk/isi-satellite/

August19–21:Dublin,Ireland.YoungstatisticiansMeeting(YsI2011)ISI Satellite Meeting w http://www.scss.tcd.ie/conferences/

YSI2011

August21–26:Dublin,Ireland.IsIDublin:58thWorldstatisticsCongressw www.isi2011.ie

August29–September1:WashingtonDC,USA.7thInternationalConferenceonMultipleComparisonProceduresw http://www.mcp-conference.org

September 2011

September5–9:Lisbon,Portugal.17theuropeanYoungstatisticiansMeetingwhttp://www.fct.unl.pt/17eysm

September7–8:StatisticalCenterofStatisticsKorea,Daejeon,SouthKorea.ThirdInternationalWorkshoponInternetsurveyMethodswwww.kostat.go.kr

September12–16:MathematicalBiosciencesInstitute,Columbus,Ohio.WorkshoponnewQuestionsinProbabilityTheoryArisinginBiologicalsystemsw http://mbi.osu.edu/2011/ws1description.html

September12–December16:InstituteforPureandAppliedMathematics,LosAngeles,USA.MathematicalandComputationalApproachesinHigh-ThroughputGenomicsw www.ipam.ucla.edu/programs/gen2011/

September13–16:Jaca,Spain.statistics,ProbabilityandoperationsResearch(sPo2011)w http://metodosestadisticos.

unizar.es/~jaca2011

September24:Cambridge,MA.2011newenglandsymposiumonstatisticsinsportswhttp://www.amstat.org/chapters/boston/

nessis11.html

September25–28:Ribno,Bled,Slovenia.Appliedstatistics2011whttp://conferences.nib.si/AS2011

NEW September26–27:Birmingham,Alabama.statisticalAnalysesfornextGenerationsequencingw http://www.soph.uab.

edu/ssg/courses/nhgri_r13/ngsstat

October 2011

October3–4:ETHZurich,Switzerland.ColloquiuminhonorofHansRudolfKünschontheoccasionofhis60thbirth-dayw https://stat.ethz.ch/events/Colloquium_Kuensch

October12–14:WashingtonDC/SilverSpringMD.ConferenceonRiskAssessmentandevaluationofPredictionswhttp://brac.

umd.edu/~Risk2011/Main.htm

October18–20:HarvardMedicalSchool,Cambridge,Mass.2011non-clinicalBiostatisticsConferencew http://www.hsph.harvard.

edu/ncb2011/

http://www.nist.gov/itl/math/ifip-woco-10.cfm

http://www.nist.gov/itl/math/ifip-woco-10.cfm

http://www.math.uconn.edu/~valdez/46arc/46arc-storrs.php

http://www.math.uconn.edu/~valdez/46arc/46arc-storrs.php

http://www.scss.tcd.ie/conferences/YSI2011

http://www.scss.tcd.ie/conferences/YSI2011

http://mbi.osu.edu/2011/ws1description.html

http://www.ipam.ucla.edu/programs/gen2011/

http://metodosestadisticos.unizar.es/~jaca2011

http://metodosestadisticos.unizar.es/~jaca2011

http://www.amstat.org/chapters/boston/nessis11.html

http://www.amstat.org/chapters/boston/nessis11.html

http://brac.umd.edu/~Risk2011/Main.htm

http://brac.umd.edu/~Risk2011/Main.htm

http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ncb2011/

http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ncb2011/



http://www.amstat.org/

http://www.thiele.au.dk/asmussen

http://nonparam11.karlin.mff.cuni.cz

http://www.R-project.org/useR-2011

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/IAOS2011.html

http://statistics.ku.dk/isi-satellite/

http://www.isi2011.ie

http://www.mcp-conference.org

http://www.fct.unl.pt/17eysm

http://www.kostat.go.kr

http://conferences.nib.si/AS2011

https://stat.ethz.ch/events/Colloquium_Kuensch

http://www.soph.uab.edu/ssg/courses/nhgri_r13/ngsstat


NEW October23–27:Pucón,Chile.ThirdLatinAmericanMeetingonBayesianstatistics(CoBAL)andXXXVIIIChileannationalMeetingofstatistics(Jne)w http://cobal2011.usach.cl

NEW October24–26:Knoxville,TN,USA.nIMBiosInvestigativeWorkshop:MathematicalModelingofIntracellularMovementsw http://nimbios.org/workshops/WS_intracellular_

mv.html

NEW October28–30:Prague,CzechRepublic.AnalyticalMethodsinstatistics(AMIstAt)w http://amistat2011.karlin.mff.cuni.cz

November 2011

November7–9:Łódź,Poland.MultivariatestatisticalAnalysisConferencewhttp://www.msa.uni.lodz.pl

November25–27:Lahore,Pakistan.3rdInternationalConferenceonstatisticalscienceswhttp://www.icss3.co.nr/

December 2011

December18–21:Amman,Jordan.11thIslamicCountriesConferenceonstatisticalsciences(ICCs-11)whttp://www.iccs11.

isoss.net/

December28–30:Colombo,SriLanka.InternationalstatisticsConference2011.w TBC

December28–31:HongKong,China.InternationalConferenceonAdvancesinProbabilityandstatisticsTheoryandApplica-tions:Acelebrationofn.Balakrishnan’[email protected]://faculty.smu.edu/ngh/

icaps2011.html

January 2012NEW January1–6:Hyderabad,India.22ndAnnualConferenceof

TheInternationalenvironmetricssocietyw www.ties2012.com/

NEW January23–27:CentreInternationaldeRencontresMathématiques(CIRM),Marseille,France.Concentrationinequalitiesandtheirapplicationsw http://www.cirm.univ-mrs.fr/

April 2012

April1–4:WashingtonDC,USA.2012enAR/IMsspringMeetings.w http://www.enar.org/meetings.cfm

April18–20:Poznań,Poland.InternationalCongressofPolishstatisticstocelebratethe100thanniversaryofthePolishStatisticalAssociationw http://www.stat.gov.pl/pts/

March 2012 NEW March14–16:HongKong.IAenGInternationalConference

onDataMiningandApplications2012w www.iaeng.org/

IMECS2012/ICDMA2012.html

NEW March30–31:WashingtonDC.Informationandeconometricsofnetworksw www.american.edu/cas/economics/

info-metrics/workshop/workshop-2012-spring.cfm

June 2012

June3–6:Guelph,Ontario,Canada.ssCAnnualMeetingw TBC

NEW June18–22:MIT,Cambridge,MA,USA.The2012stochasticnetworksConferencew http://stoch-nets-2012.lids.mit.

edu/

June23–26:Boston,MA,USA.ICsA2012Appliedstatisticssymposium.w TBC

June25–29:Kyoto,Japan.2012IsBAWorldMeetingw http://www2.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~isba2012/

July 2012

July1–4:Tsukuba,Japan.IMsAsiaPacificRimMeetings.w

http://www.ims-aprm2012.org/(meeting postponed from July 2011

due to the earthquake)

July3–6:UniversityofOslo,Norway.ThirdbiennialInternationalstatisticalecologyConferencew http://www.cees.uio.no/news/2010/isec2012.html

Continuesonpage 22

http://www.iccs11.isoss.net/

http://www.iccs11.isoss.net/

http://faculty.smu.edu/ngh/icaps2011.html

http://faculty.smu.edu/ngh/icaps2011.html

http://cobal2011.usach.cl

http://nimbios.org/workshops/WS_intracellular_

http://amistat2011.karlin.mff.cuni.cz

http://www.msa.uni.lodz.pl

http://www.icss3.co.nr/


http://www.ties2012.com/

http://www.cirm.univ-mrs.fr/


http://www.stat.gov.pl/pts/

http://www.iaeng.org/

http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/

http://stoch-nets-2012.lids.mit

http://www2.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~isba2012/

http://www.ims-aprm2012.org/

http://www.cees.uio.no/news/2010/isec2012.html


July9–14:Istanbul,Turkey.IMsAnnualMeeting2012inconjunctionwith8thWorldCongressinProbabilityandstatistics.w http://www.worldcong2012.org/

July16–18:MemorialUniversity,St.John’s,Canada.Inter-nationalsymposiuminstatistics(Iss)onLongitudinalDataAnalysissubjecttooutliers,Measurementerrors,and/orMissingValuesw www.iss-2012-stjohns.ca

July28–August2:SanDiego,California.JsM2012.w http://amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2012/index.cfm

March 2013

March10–13:Orlando,Florida.2013enAR/IMsspringMeeting.w http://www.enar.org/meetings.cfm

July 2013

July29–August2:UniversityofColorado,Boulder,USA.36thConferenceonstochasticProcessesandtheirApplicationsw

TBC

August 2013

August3–8:Montréal,Canada.IMsAnnualMeetingatJsM2013.w http://amstat.org/meetings/jsm/

August24–31:HongKong.InternationalstatisticalInstitute:59thIsIWorldstatisticsCongressw www.isi2013.hk

October 2013NEW October15–16: Basel,Switzerland.International

ConferenceArs Conjectandi1713–2013w http://www.statoo.ch/

bernoulli13/

March 2014

March16–19:Baltimore,Maryland.2014enAR/IMsspringMeeting. w http://www.enar.org/meetings.cfm

July 2014

July7–11:Sydney,Australia.2014IMsAnnualMeeting.w TBC

August 2014

August2–7:Boston,MA.JsM2014andAsA’s175thAnniversary.w TBC

August 2015

August8–13:Seattle,WA.JsM2015.w TBC

Are we missing something? If you know of

any statistics or probability meetings which

aren’t listed here, please let us know. Email

the details to Elyse Gustafson at erg@imstat.

org. We’ll list them here in the

Bulletin, and online too, at

www.imstat.org/meetings

International Calendar continued

July 2012 continued


http://www.iss-2012-stjohns.ca

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http://www.isi2013.hk

http://www.statoo.ch/bernoulli13


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The purpose of the Institute is to foster the

development and dissemination

of the theory and applications of

statistics and probabilityIMS: Organized September 12, 1935

Volume40. Issue 5

ISSN (1050-5164)

THE ANNALSof

APPLIEDPROBABILITY

AN OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE

INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS

Articles

Geodesics and flows in a Poissonian city . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WILFRID S. KENDALL 801A rule of thumb for riffle shuffling

SAMI ASSAF, PERSI DIACONIS AND K. SOUNDARARAJAN 843General notions of indexability for queueing control and asset management

KEVIN D. GLAZEBROOK, DAVID J. HODGE AND CHRIS KIRKBRIDE 876Efficient simulation of nonlinear parabolic SPDEs with additive noise

ARNULF JENTZEN, PETER KLOEDEN AND GEORG WINKEL 908A positive recurrent reflecting Brownian motion with divergent fluid path

MAURY BRAMSON 951Connectivity and equilibrium in random games

CONSTANTINOS DASKALAKIS, ALEXANDROS G. DIMAKISAND ELCHANAN MOSSEL 987

Concentration inequalities for mean field particle modelsPIERRE DEL MORAL AND EMMANUEL RIO 1017

Hamilton cycles in random geometric graphsJÓZSEF BALOGH, BÉLA BOLLOBÁS, MICHAEL KRIVELEVICH,

TOBIAS MÜLLER AND MARK WALTERS 1053Bounds on the speed and on regeneration times for certain processes on regular trees

ANDREA COLLEVECCHIO AND TOM SCHMITZ 1073Recovering a time-homogeneous stock price process from perpetual option prices

ERIK EKSTRÖM AND DAVID HOBSON 1102Gaussianization and eigenvalue statistics for random quantum channels (III)

BENOÎT COLLINS AND ION NECHITA 1136Analysis of market weights under volatility-stabilized market models . . . . . . SOUMIK PAL 1180

Vol. 21, No. 3—June 2011

nextthe

issue is

September 2011

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