Volunteered Information: f lki ddpart of a toolkit to address

complex global challengescomplex global challenges

Rajan GuptaTheoretical Division

Los Alamos National Lab

LA-UR-07-8446

Many Global Challenges• Access to carbon-neutral modern energy (electric

power and liquid fuels) by the global populationQ li d i f• Quality and quantity of water resources

• EnvironmentGl b l Cli t Ch• Global Climate Change

• Pandemics (bio-security)Public Health• Public Health

• Terrorist networks• Proliferation of nuclear materials• Proliferation of nuclear materials, ….

Enabling smart people to address these by providing accurate transparent data!

Common Characteristicso Global in scope and impact, and their solution will require cooperation

and possibly sacrifices in lifestyles and consumption. o They have very strong social, political, economic, technology, resource

and environmental drivers Highly complex non linear systemsand environmental drivers. Highly complex non-linear systemso These non-linear systems have thresholds, tipping pointso Information is fragmented, hard to validate, evolving, incomplete and

often proprietary and or misleading in direct or subtle waysoften proprietary and or misleading in direct or subtle ways. o They require input from, and expertise in, many different disciplines to

even comprehend, leave alone allow experts to plan sensibly or to develop “solutions”. p

o Public participation and buy in is essential. Thus, there is extreme need for transparency along with a firm commitment to common good.

o Major breakthroughs in technology are required for a technological solution (improvements due to economy of scale and/or efficiency will be very significant but not “solutions”)

o There is urgency in addressing these challenges as the consequences and impacts co ld be e tremeimpacts could be extreme

Ubiquitous sensing• Needed for

– Compliance

– Situational awareness

– Modeling systems that have strong social, political, economic, environmental technology and resource availability driversenvironmental, technology and resource availability drivers

• Digitally connected people and [in]expensive sensors

Will t t t f d t• Will generate extreme amounts of data

• Information and Computer science challenges A d / R b i f i f i– Automated / Robotic systems for information management

– Novel hardware, software, algorithms and models

O t A di f tOpen systems: A new paradigm for engagement, collecting information and extracting knowledge

Harnessing volunteeredgeo-referenced data provided by the ultimate ubiquitous devices-- Peopleultimate ubiquitous devices People

• People communicating and volunteering information through– Laptops connected to Internet

– GIS enabled Cell Phones

Leveraging distributed investment by people

Coupled ubiquitous sensing:input from public and experts

& [very] low cost sensors& [very] low cost sensors • $1 Sensors (USB “sticks”, sensor chips, …)( , p , )• Remote sensors (satellite, deployed, ..)• V&V by experts (NGOs, academics, surveys,V&V by experts (NGOs, academics, surveys,

official reports, …) and $1M sensors

Need tools to manage & analyze information → turn it into knowledge → decisionsg

Ubiquitous Sensingq g

SimplePeople

SimpleEngaging

Tools: Laptops,Cell-phones,

Inexpensivesensors

Tools:

Google Cars,…

sensorsGoogle,G. Earth,Wikis …Wikis, …

V&V: Experts and $1M sensors

Interesting Questions

• What motivates people to volunteer information? o at o ?

• Characteristics of a VI system that promotes trust and transparencyp y

• VI as a means to consensus building and collective behavior?

• Extending VI to issues where individuals have to make addition investment to buy physical / chemical sensors?– Map of roads → quality of roads– Map of water table → quality of water

Open model projectOpen model project

Openmodel.newmexicoconsortium.orgOpenmodel.newmexicoconsortium.org

Mapping the global energyMapping the global energy system -- easy access, use

fand visualization of data

Google Earth / Wikipedia / Web 2.0 based system

Openmodel.lanl.govOpenmodel.newmexicoconsortium.org

(Global Energy Systems and Infrastructure)

GlobalCommunity

MemberEdits

Moderator

Data Annotation

AppropriatePortions

Data AnnotationAnalysisyStorage

Summer School on Global Energy Systems

• 30 students with different backgrounds (physical sciences, energy, computer science, business, economics, social sciences)

• Lectures on energy systems and analysis tools (Internal and external lecturers)tools (Internal and external lecturers)

• Project: 5 t f 6 t d t h– 5 teams of 6 students each

– Team picks a region of the world to studyBuilds on the Openmodel data base– Builds on the Openmodel data base

– Develops scenarios for transitioning that region to carbon neutral systemsregion to carbon neutral systems

Develop a 1 semester course based on this SS

Gathering Information → Extracting knowledge Historically: highly trained exceptional peopleHistorically: highly trained exceptional people• Fa Hein (337-422 AD) (399-414 India)

Marco Polo (1254 1324) (1271 1295 China)• Marco Polo (1254-1324) (1271-1295 China)• Christopher Columbus (1451-1506) (1492- New World)• Vasco da Gama (1460-1524) (1498 India)Vasco da Gama (1460 1524) (1498 India)• Heinrich Barth (1821-1865) (1849-1855 Africa)• Sir Richard Burton (1821-1890) (1853-1858 Africa)

These explorers were • Exceptional multilingual observers, scribes and scholars• Gathered information by direct contact and observation• Quantitative and qualitative information and knowledgeextraction bore their “expert” seal = V&V