vote buying in indonesia: learning from survey...

Vote Buying in Indonesia:

Learning from Survey Data

Indikator Politik Indonesia, and Lembaga Survei Indonesia

2013

.

• Population: all eligible voters in each of district surveyed.

• Number of districts surveyed: 39.

• Sampel: 400 for each district.

• Face-to-face interview.

• Quality control: spot-checking, 20% of total sample.

• When: September-Oktober 2013.

Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013) 8

District (Dapil) Level

.

As an effort to win the election, a particular candidate or his/her campaign team gives away a certain amount of money or goods to voters in order to have their votes. In your opinion, is this

practice acceptable or unacceptable? (%)


Is vote buying acceptable? (%)

41.5

57.9

0.50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA

Survey in 39 Districts, Sep-Okc 2013

.


[For those who said it is acceptable] If it happens to you, are you going to accept the money/goods?

28.7

10.3

55.7

4.3 1.00

1020304050607080

Take the

money/goods

and give my

vote to the

candidate

Take all the

money/goods

and give my

vote to the

candidate who

gave the

highest value

Take all the

money, and I'll

give my vote

to the

candidate of

my own choice

Will not take

the

money/goods

DK/DA

.


Demographic Profile

Base Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA

Male 50.0 40 59 1

Female 50.0 43 57 0

Rural 51.4 44 55 1

Urban 48.6 39 61 0

<= 20 4.5 42 58 1

21-25 6.8 42 57 0

26-40 38.0 43 57 0

41-55 32.9 41 59 0

> 55 17.8 41 58 1

GENDER

RURAL-URBAN

AGE

.


Demographic Profile (cont’d)

Base Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA

<= Elementary 49.7 46 53 1

Junior HS 20.4 42 57 0

Senior HS 22.5 36 63 0

College 7.3 21 78 0

< 1 mil 58.6 47 53 0

1 - < 2 mil 25.6 38 61 0

=> 2 juta 15.8 29 71 0

Level of EDUCATION

INCOME (Rp.)

. 7

National Survey (March 2013)

• Population: all eligible voters in Indonesia • Sample: 1200 • MoE – assuming simple random sampling – 2.9% • Face-to-face interview • When: March 2013

.


If a candidate give you a certain amount of money for your vote, what would you do?

4.2

5.3

19.5

8.0

8.7

5.4

48.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

DK/DA

Take all the money and give my vote to the party that

gave the highest price

Take all the money and give my vote to the party of

my choice

Take all the money and give my vote to any of them

Just take the money from one party and give my vote

to that party

Refuse the money and give my vote to the party did

not give money or goods

Refuse the money and give my vote to the party of my

choice Those who refuse, 54.3%

Those who accept, 41.5%

.


Real experience: Have you ever been offered money or goods and in return you give your vote

for the party or candidate who gave the offer?

16.8

80.3

2.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Yes, I have No, I have not DK/DA

.


Have you ever seen someone else who received some money or goods before the election day?

8.512.2

79.1

0.20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Yes, a lot of

people around

here received it

Yes, bot not many No, I have not

seen any

DK/DA

.


Party ID: Is there any party that you feel close to?

Yes, there is, 14.3

No, there is not, 85.5

DK/DA, 0.2

26

51

19

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Very close Fair lyClose

Somewhatclose

DK/DA

.


Trend of Party ID

21

18

21

18 18

14

17

1412

14

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

Me

i'11

Jun

'11

Jul'1

1

De

s'1

1

Feb

'12

Me

i'12

Jun

'12

Okt

'12

De

s'1

2

Mar

'13

Okt

'13

Sumber sebelum Maret 2013: Survei LSI dan SMRC

.


43

53

4

38

63

0

34

61

6

31

69

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Would accept the money Would refuse the money DK/DA

None Somewhat close Fairly close Very close

Does Party ID make a difference? (%)

.


Social Organization Membership (%)

20.3

3.6 3.2

6.2

4.45.9 6.2

9.7

2.5

5.7

22.7

9.6

3.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

Nah

dla

tul

Ula

ma (

NU

)

Mu

ham

mad

iyah

Oth

er

Isla

mic

Org

an

izati

on

Ch

urc

h

Ad

at

Org

an

izati

on

Yo

uth

Org

an

izati

on

s

Sp

ort

Clu

b

Lab

or

Un

ion

s,

Peasan

t

Org

an

izati

on

s

Po

liti

cal

Part

ies

Villa

ge-b

ased

yo

uth

Org

an

izati

on

s

"Ari

san

"

(Raff

le?

)

Co

op

era

tio

n

(?)

Cu

ltu

ral-

based

org

an

izati

on

.


42

55

4

41

54

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Will accept the

money

Will refuse the

money

DK/DA

Member

Non-member

Does social organization membership make a difference? (%)

.


20

23

12

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

Those who have ever

been offered …

Those who have ever seen

some else …

Member

Non-member

Exposure to money politics and organizational membership? (%)

.


42

54

4

41

55

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Will accept the money Will refuse the money DK/DA

Male Female

Does gender make a difference? (%)

.


47 50

3

36

59

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Will accept the money Will refuse the money DK/DA

Rural Urban

Does domicile make a difference? (%)

.


38

61

1

49 51

0

4353

3

39

56

6

40

54

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Will accept the

money

Will refuse the

money

DK/DA

<= 20 yo

21-25 yo

26-40 yo

41-55 yo

> 55 yo

Does age make a difference? (%)

.


49 47

5

37

60

3

37

60

3

23

70

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Will accept the

money

Will rerefuse the

money

DK/DA

<= Elementary

Junior HS

Senior HS

College

Does level of education make a difference (%)

.


47 49

4

41

56

3

30

66

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Will accept the

money

Will refuse the

money

DK/DA

< 1 million

1 - < 2 million

=> 2 million

Does level of income make a difference (%)

Semakin besar pendapatan semakin kecil kecenderungannya menerima pemberian.

.


47 484651

46

54

4651

4350

42

57

39

57

39

58

38

62

36

61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Will accept the money Will not accept the money

PKB

PDIP

NASDEM

GERINDRA

PPP

HANURA

DEMOKRAT

GOLKAR

PAN

PKS

Does party make a difference? (%)

.


The effects of … on accepting/refusing the money

DEPENDENT VARIABLE

Tendency of accepting the

money

“Experience”/ exposure to

money politics

Gender (male) 0.03 0.05**

Rural-urban (rural) 0.04 0.05**

Level of education -0.29*** 0.06*

Age -0.10 -0.11***

Party ID -0.11* 0.05

Organizational membership

-0.14 0.28*

“Experience” 0.18***

(Logistic regression model)

***p<.001, **p<.01, *p<.05

. 24

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vote buying in indonesia: learning from survey...

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