Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Chapter 14

In this chapter you will learn about

• What the founders were thinking when they established a role for elections, and the potential roles that elections can play in a democracy

• Americans’ ambivalence about the vote and the reasons that only about half of the citizenry even bothers to exercise what is supposed to be a precious right

• How voters go about making decisions, and how this in turn influences the character of presidential elections

• The organization and strategic aspects of running for the presidency

• What elections mean for citizens

Voting in a democratic society

• The Constitution reflects the founders’ fears of citizens’ judgment about politics

• Senators originally not directly elected– Originally, a Senator was elected by the legislature of a state, and

was expected to represent the state government within the Federal government.

1. It was believed that while an unqualified candidate might win a popular-vote majority through lies or superficial qualities, the legislature, which could deliberate on its choice, and whose members had been selected by their constituents and had experience in politics, would be safe from such folly.

2. Also, election by the legislature was expected to insulate Senators from the distraction of public campaigning for election or re-election, leaving them free to concentrate on the great business of the Federal government

3. Changed by the 17th Amendment in 1913

Voting in a democratic

society

• President not directly elected (Founding fathers did not trust us)– Electoral College

• Only House of Representatives directly elected

The Unwashed Masses

Functions of elections

1. Select leaders

2. Direct policy

3. Citizen development / involvement

4. Inform the public

5. Contain conflict

6. Legitimacy and system stability

Voting in America: who votes and who doesn’t

• Age: younger Americans vote less frequently

• Income: poorer Americans vote less frequently

• Education: Americans with less education vote less frequently

• Race and ethnicity: minorities vote less frequently

– National Election Study

~56%

~38%

National Voter Turnout for 2010 Midterm Elections – about 40%

The darker the blue, the greater the turnout

Why Americans don’t vote

Why Americans don’t vote S?• Legal obstacles – Registration, Tuesday voting, frequency of

elections, felon (up to states)• In MO, felons may vote upon completion of

supervised release.

• Attitude changes– Lower efficacy (the sense of belief that one’s

actions have an effect on the environment), decreased party identification

• Voter mobilization– Mixed level of effort by parties

Why Americans don’t vote, cont’d.

• Decrease in social connectedness– Less participation in social groups and

communities (recall: “all politics is local”)

• Generational changes– Active generations replaced by less politically

engaged ones, in turn may be replaced by a more politically active generation

• Rational nonvoter– Calculates that vote will not make a difference to

outcome

• Lazy, poorly educated about civics/ duty

Get out the vote campaigns

• Rock the Vote• AIGA Get out

the Vote• League of Wo

men Voters

Does nonvoting matter?• According to book, unlikely

that nonvoting significantly affects election outcome– I disagree– Those registered and not

voting And the non-registered demographically different

• Consequences for democracy– May question legitimacy of

election if so few vote– May deepen loss of efficacy

of those who don’t vote

How the voter decides• Party identification is the biggest

factor accounting for how people vote– Directly influences the vote– Indirectly influences the vote by

affecting the perception of issues and candidate evaluations

• Social groups– If people on your slow-pitch co-ed

softball team are predominately voting for a given candidate, you may vote the same way

How the voter decides, cont’d

• Issues and Policy– Reliance on party labels; easy v. hard issues;

media coverage– Prospective voting: basing voting decisions on

well-informed opinions and consideration of the future consequences of a given vote

– Retrospective voting: basing voting decisions on reactions to past performance; approving the status quo or signaling a desire for change• Evaluate economy, foreign policy, or domestic

issues– Prospective voting is idealized model of policy

voting, but retrospective voting is more realistic

How the voter decides, cont’d

• The candidates– Voters form clear opinions about candidate

qualities that are relevant to governing• Trust worthy• Leadership qualities• Intelligent• Good public speaker / motivator• Likable (a good person; moral)• Attractive

– Voters perceive differences between candidates on issues and on how they would handle aspects of presidency

Presidential campaigns

• Pre-primary season: raise money, raise credibility, raise visibility

• Primaries and caucuses: Primary elections are run by state and local governments, while caucuses are private events run by the political parties.– Party caucus: local gathering of party members to

choose convention delegates– Presidential primary: an election by which voters

choose convention delegates committed to voting for a certain candidate

– Open primary vs. closed primary

Republican Primary

Democratic Primary

Presidential campaigns, cont’d.

• Primaries and caucuses, cont’d. – Front-loading: the process of scheduling

presidential primaries early in the primary season

– Front-runner: the leading candidate and expected winner of a nomination or election

– Momentum: the widely help public perspective that a candidate has gained electoral strength

Primary Schedule

• Campaigning for President often begins a year or more before the New Hampshire Primary, and almost two years before the presidential election.

• For 2008, both the Republicans and the Democrats moved their Nevada caucuses to January 19, which was an earlier date than past election cycles. In response, other states also changed their primary election dates for 2008, creating a cascade of changes in other states. The election dates for 2008 were as follows:

2008 Primary Calendar

• January 3—Iowa caucus• January 5—Wyoming caucus (Republican only)• January 8—New Hampshire primary• January 15—Michigan primary• January 19—Nevada Caucus & Republican South Carolina primary• January 26—Democratic South Carolina primary• January 29—Florida primary• February 1 - February 2―Republican Maine caucus• February 5 ― Super Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in

19 states, plus three Democratic-only caucuses and two Republican-only primaries

• Presidential election is in November. Could low voter turnout also be because people are sick of the lengthy campaign process?

Presidential Primary 2012

Role of national conventions

• Conventions role changed from past– Nominee is already known; merely make it official– Choose vice presidential candidate– Approve party platform– Rally supporters

General election campaign

• The Electoral College defines strategy– Visit large or competitive

states• Who runs the campaign?

– Professional campaign managers

• Presenting the candidate– Convey clear understanding

of candidate’s strengths

McCain campaign manager Rick Davisblamed for the Palin debacle

Jim Massina, Obama CampaignManager 2012.

Campaign managers

Issues in the general election campaign

• Valence issue: an issue on which most voters and candidates share the same position– Energy dependence bad

• Position issue: an issue on which the parties differ in their perspectives and proposed solutions– Healthcare

• Wedge issue: a controversial issue that one party uses to split the voters in the other party– Social security

• Issue ownership: the tendency of one party to be seen as more competent in a specific policy area– Republicans: Foreign Policy– Democrats: Domestic Issues

The media and generalelection campaigns

• Negative advertising: campaign advertising that emphasizes the negative characteristics of opponents rather than one’s own strengths

• Favorable airtime on news• Candidates appear on soft

news or entertainment programs

• Debate performance is important because many people watch and debates have significant effect on voters

Clinton plays sax on Arsenio Hall

No Jack Kennedy

Money and general election campaigns

• Sources depending on period of campaign:– Government matching

funds– Hard money– Soft money

– Issue advocacy ads: advertisements paid for by soft money, and thus not regulated, that promote certain issue positions but do not endorse specific candidates

Trends and interpretations of general election campaigns

• Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) drives by parties and groups– Grassroots efforts that have increased in recent

elections

• Interpreting elections– Winner claims that victory provides a policy

mandate– Media develop common story explaining outcome

The citizens and elections

• Fourth model of citizen activity– Democracy is better off with different types of

voters

• Do elections make a difference?– Yes, it matters who wins for government and policy– Direct relationship between national elections and

policies the government enacts