vulnerability analysis to climate change along the caribbean coasts of belize, guatemala and...

7/28/2019 VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS TO CLIMATE CHANGE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF BELIZE, GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS

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USAID REGIONAL PROGRAM FOR THE MANAGEMENTOF AQUATIC RESOURCES AND ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS TO CLIMATECHANGE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTSOF BELIZE, GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS

This publication was produced or review by the United States Agency or International Development. It was prepared by The Center Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education (CATIE) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC).

Central America, 2012


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Carlos Roberto HasbnEnvironment and Natural Resources Regional Advisor Mexico and Central America.

Contract Technical Ocer. United States Agency or International Development, USAID.

[email protected]

Nstor Windevoxhel

Chie o Party. USAID Regional Program or the Management o Aquatic Resources and Economic [email protected]

Prime Contract No.EPP 1-05 -04 00020 00 TNC

Deliverable Number 5.3.

This document was elaborated by:

Climate Change and Watersheds Program, Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center. (CATIE)

Lenin Corrales, Pablo Imbach, Claudia Bouroncle, Juan Carlos Zamora, Daniel Ballestero

Mesoamerican Ree Program, The Nature Conservancy, (TNC)Fernando Secaira, Hernando Cabral, Ignacio March, James Rieger

Review by: Juan Carlos Villagrn & Zulma de Mendoza, Helena Miranda (Regional Sta members).

Photography: Fernando Secaira, Calina Zepeda

Graphic Design: Mauricio Ponce

This publication was produced or review by the United States Agency or International Development. It was prepared by The Center

or Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education (CATIE) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC).


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Evaluation o vulnerability to climate change along the Caribbean coasts o Belize, Guatemala and Honduras


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The objective o the USAID Regional Program or theManagement o Aquatic Resources and Economic Alternatives

is to reinorce the management o resources along the CentralAmerican coast, reduce threats related to unsustainable

shing and coastal development practices, support biodiversityconservation and improve the liestyles o communities in theregion. Climate change will have a serious eect on coral rees,

sea beds, beaches and coastal wetlands, all ecosystems thatsustain sheries and tourism, the main means o living or the

population; and it will likewise severely aect the inrastructureo the countries communities, cities and businesses. The

implementation o methods or climate change adaptation is

thereore a key element o the Regional Program, in order tomaintain unctionality o the ecosystems that sustain shing and

tourism and to improve the communities adaptive capacity.

The Program has 4 transboundary ocus sites: the Gulo Honduras, the Gul o Fonseca, the Mosquitia Coast o

Honduras and Nicaragua, and the area between Punta Cahuita,Costa Rica and Bocas del Toro, Panama. In 2011, the RegionalProgram developed the ollowing bases or implementing

adaptation methods in the Gul o Honduras:

1. As a rst step, the development o a Climate Change

Vulnerability Analysis and a Climate Change AdaptationPlan was coordinated, to be prepared by the dierentagencies o the Governments o Belize, Nicaragua

and Honduras responsible or managing shing andprotected areas, and or establishing and managing

government agendas on climate change. The purpose orthis coordinated eort was to include the government

entities in this process, and to assure the subsequentimplementation o the recommended adaptation methods.The dierent agencies involved were the Belizean

Department o Fisheries, the Coastal Zone ManagementAuthority and the Ministry o the Environment Oce o

Climate Change; the Guatemalan UNIPESCA, CONAPand Ministry o the Environment and Natural Resources

Oces or Climate Change and Coastal Management;and the Honduran DIGEPESCA, Forestry Conservation

Institute Protected Areas Oce and Department o theEnvironment and Natural Resources oce or ClimateChange. The personnel rom these institutions were

present at the national consultations described here.

THE USAID REGIONAL PROGRAM FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF

AQUATIC RESOURCES AND ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES AND

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

2. A Vulnerability to Climate Change analysiswas prepared or the Caribbean Coasts o

Belize, Guatemala and Honduras (USAID,2012b), to determine potential impacts to

the area and estimate the adaptive capacityo the coastal communities identiyingthe most relevant areas and the most

vulnerable municipalities.

3. National discussions were held with keystakeholders about the results o the

vulnerability analysis and jointly identiyied

the required adaptation strategies. Theseconerences were held rom August 22nd

to the 28th, 2011 in Belize City, Belize,La Ceiba, Honduras and Guatemala City,

Guatemala (USAID, 2012c).

4. A series o Proposed Climate ChangeAdaptation Strategies were developedor the Caribbean Regions o Belizea,

Guatemala and Honduras, with strategicrecommendations and specic actions

given or each country.

Envisioned or the next phase:

1. Conversion o the Proposed Climate Change

Adaptation Strategies into two nationalplans or adaptation along the marine and

coastalmarine and coastal; one or Hondurasand the other or Guatemala, and the

incorporation o recommendations in theNational Plan or Belize.

2. Development o climate change adaptationmethods to be used in the management o

protected areas in the Gul o Honduras andthe Bay Islands.

3. Support or the adaptation methods selected

during the implementation o the RegionalProgram rom 2012 to 2015.


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD 3

1. INTRODUCTION 7

Indicators o climate change and their eect on the coast-marine

environment 7

Dening the vulnerability o natural systems and human communities to climate change 10

II. OBJECTIVES 13

General objective 13

Specic objectives 13

III. METHODOLOGY 14

Denition the study area 14

Denition o the analysis period 17

Focal issues or targets 17

Hypothesis o climate change on target natural systems 18

Hypothesis o climate change impacts on social system targets 22

Methodology or measuring potential impact and vulnerability 23

Rise in sea surace temperature 24

Increase in hurricane intensity 27

Rise in sea level and risks to the coast 28

Changes in rainall patterns and air temperature 31

Estimating the adaptive capacity o human communities 36

Integrating vulnerability data 38

IV.POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 40

Rise in sea surace temperature 40

Exposure 40

Sensitivity 46

Frequency and intensity o hurricanes in the Caribbean 48

Rise in sea level 51

Exposure 55

Sensitivity 56

Changes in air temperature and rainall patterns 59

Exposure 59

Sensitivity 64


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V. VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE 68

Results o the adaptive capacity analysis 68

Vulnerability to a potential rise in sea level 70

Vulnerability to a potential rise in temperature and drop in rainall 72

Comprehensive vulnerability to the eects o climate change 75

VI. CONCLUSIONS 77

REFERENCES 78

APPENDICES 81

Appendix A: Vulnerability Results by Municipality 81

Belize 81

Guatemala 81

Honduras 82

Appendix B: Protected Area Vulnerability and Sensitivity 83


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ACRONYMS

CATIE Centro Agronmico Tropical de Investigacin y Enseanza

CC Climate Change

CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3

CONAP Consejo Nacional de Areas Protegidas (Guatemala)

CRISP Coral Ree Initiative or the South Pacic

CRW Coral Ree Watch (NOAA)

DHW Degree Heat Week

DIGEPESCA Direccin General de Pesca (Honduras)

GEI Green House Gases

ICF Instituto de Conservacin Forestal de Honduras (Honduras)

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel o Experts on Climate Change

MARN Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (Guatemala)

MASL Meters above sea level

NOAA National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration (USA)

SERNA Secretara de Recursos Naturales

SSH Sea surace height

SST Sea surace temperature

TNC The Nature Conservancy

UNIPESCA Unidad de Pesca (Guatemala)

USAID United States Agency or International Development

WCRP World climate Research Program


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I. Introduction

The communities located along the Caribbean coastso Belize, Guatemala and Honduras depend strongly on

shing and tourism or their livelihoods. These activitiesin turn are based on the use o goods and services rom

dierent types o coastal and marine habitats includingrees, sea grasses, lagoons and mangroves, among

others. Additionally, housing, urban, transportation and

recreational inrastructure has also been built along thecoast and on the coastal plains, making them vulnerable

to storms, hurricanes and foods. However, coral rees,mangroves and coastal lagoons reduce their eects,

providing a key service to reduce vulnerability.

Coastal and marine habitats are seriously disturbed byhuman activities through overshing, contamination,sedimentation and tourism activities; and weather

variability and climate change will substantially worsenthese conditions. Given the strong dependence o

coastal communities and national economies on theseecosystems, adaptation actions must be implemented to:

1. Improve the resilience o coastal ecosystems to

climate change and extreme weather events tocontinue to providing the goods and services that

assist the longterm sustenance o the communitiesand biodiversity.

2. Build the capacity o human coastal communities toadapt to the changes and extreme events that will

inevitably occur.

3. Finally, improve adaptive capacity and reduce thesensitivity o coastal inrastructure ports, uel

discharge areas, roads and airports all o keyimportance to the three national economies.

INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

AND THEIR EFFECT ON THE COAST-

MARINE ENVIRONMENT.

The ocean perorms key unctions that are critical or

the climate through its close link with the atmosphereby storing heat, carrying it to all dierent regions o

the planet, evaporating masses o water, reezing andthawing polar regions, and storing and exchanging gases

such as carbon dioxide (CO2) (Herr and Galland 2009).

Increased concentrations o greenhouse gases without

precedent in human history (IPCC 2007), are creatingnegative changes to the oceans, threatening their ser-vices to ecosystems and human populations (Herr and

Galland 2009). Figure 1 shows the physical and chemicalchanges that the increase in greenhouse gases produces

in the coastal and ocean environment.


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Figure 1. Important abiotic changes associated with cimate change (modied Hare 2006).

These changes are interrelated and create synergies that increase the strength o their eects and subsequent impactson ecosystems and people. For example, higher air temperatures and direct sunlight increase sea surace and seacolumn temperature which in turn change rainall patterns, increase hurricanes strength, expand water volumes and

raise sea level. These eects nally increase the strength o the marine currents, tides, waves, rainall and winds thataect the coast, producing coastal erosion, fooding, salt water intrusion, the destruction o vegetation and human

inrastructure as well as important changes to the ecosystems (USAID et al. 2009). Table 1 shows the eects o climatechange and their potential impacts on marine systems and habitats.

Precipitationchange Increased air

temperature

Intensified atmosphericpreassure gradients

Increased stormfrequency

Increasedwatertemperature

Sea levelrise

Increased UV

Increased CO2

DecreasedpH

Increase greenhouse gas concentrations

Intensifiedupwelling ?

Humanactivities


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Tabe 1. Possibe eects o cimate change on the marine and coasta environment (prepared b the

authors based on CRRH 1996; Hare 2006; IPCC 2007; Kokot 2004; Nichos et a, 2007; Orr et a. 2009;

UICN 2003; USAID et a. 2009).

Eects o cimate change Impacts

Increased CO2

in the atmosphereOcean acidication

Ocean acidication Decrease in the growth o coral and invertebrates that require calcium

carbonate to develop.

Increase in the air temperature Ocean warming: temperature o the surace water and water column.Changes in wind currents.Changes in rainall patterns,

Local weather anomalies.

Ocean warmingThermal expansion o the sea, raising the sea level.

Increased thermal stratication.Changes in marine currents.Reduction and changes in upwelling.

Thermal stress on ecosystems and species.

Rise in sea levelPermanent fooding o coastal zones and loss o coastal ecosystems and

inrastructure.Changes in estuarine salinization levels and tidal residence times.

Changes in fooding levels and patterns.Coastal erosion and loss o beaches.Saltwater intrusion in the coastal aquiers.

Rainall changes Increase in torrential rainalls, causing fooding and changes in estuarine salinelevels.Longer dry periods that change estuarine saline levels.

Changes in ocean currentsChanges in larval dispersion patterns.

Increased beach erosion.Changes in rainall and wind patterns.Changes in marine surgence.

Increase in storms intensity Destructive winds and fooding o the ecosystems and inrastructure.Coastal fooding and erosion.

Flooding in coastal zones, plains and riverbeds, and impact on vulnerablemountain areas.

Ocean acidication is an ongoing phenomenon. Records or the Northern Pacic dating back to 1990 (UNESCO 2009)

show a correlation with the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (Figure 2).


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Figure 2. Ocean acidication and its correation to atmospheric CO2

in the Pacic (UNESCO 2009).

DEFINING THE VULNERABILITY

OF NATURAL SYSTEMS AND HUMAN

COMMUNITIES TO CLIMATECHANGE

Current and uture eects o climate change areconstantly more complex, creating more pressure on

ecosystems and aecting the liestyles o the people whodepend on natural resources under constantly changingconditions. For this reason coastal communities need

to anticipate and prepare or change, and institutionsmust promote and acilitate planning and preparation

or the uture (Marshall et al. 2009). The time or thispreparation is now; consequently the vulnerability

assessment considers current adaptive capacity to acetodays and uture impacts o climate change eects.

Climate change is a global process over which localcommunities have little infuence. However communities

can ace climate change through the adoption o keymeasures designed to reduce their vulnerability, decrease

the impacts and allow more time or better adaptation(Marshall et al. 2009).

Marshall et al. (2009) declared that vulnerabilityassessments should cover both the individual as well as

community scale, as interactions between the dierentscales are important. In this sense the community is

ormed o individuals; however individual responses are

requently determined by community standards, makingit impossible to understand vulnerability on an individual

scale alone.

People will also have to ace direct impacts o climate

change such as changes in drinking water availability,coastal erosion, salt water inltrations, fooding o

residential and agricultural lands and underground watersources (CRISP 2011).

People will also have to ace impacts o climate change inthe ecosystems. Fishing and recreational activities will be

impacted (Marshall et al. 2009) through the degradationo sh habitats such as coral rees and mangroves, loss

o beaches, and snorkeling and diving areas. The coastalprotection provided by barrier rees and mangroves will

be undermined. The eects o climate change will havesignicant eects on the social and cultural lie o manysocieties (CRISP 2011).

The concept o vulnerability was dened by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1

(IPCC2001) Group o Experts as: The degree to which a systemis susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse eects o

climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

1 UNEP (United Nations Environmental Program) andthe WMO (World Meteorological Organization) ormed

in 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeand the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Year

CO2Atmospheric (ppmv)

pCO2Seawater (atm)

pH Seawater


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Vulnerability is comprised o three components: exposure,

sensitivity and adaptive capacity.

1. Exposure reers to the presence o an eect oclimate change that can have negative repercussions.

It is measured by the extent o the anomaly inclimate or biophysical aspects; or example, how manydegrees the average temperature will change or how

many centimeters will the sea level rise, and the areathat will be aected.

2. Sensitivity reers to the presence o an object that issusceptible or sensitive to climate risks. For example,

i agriculture exists today or in the uture in areasthat will be subject to increased temperature and/or

fooding as a result o sea level rise.

3. Adaptive capacity reers to the capacity o a system

to change to better conront adverse impacts orrecover rom them. It assesses the capacities o

human communities and individuals, companiesand national economies. For example, it assesses i

armers have the capacity to change crops, increaseirrigation (to cope with increase temperature) or

move to another area (i fooding is the threat).

In a social context, the terms exposure, sensitivity and

adaptive capacity are dened as ollows:

1. Exposure is dened as the degree to which acommunity is in contact with weather phenomena

or specic climate impacts. This specically includesresidential areas and resources that are exposedto dierent impacts and weather phenomena. For

example, houses located close to the high tideline have higher exposure to sea level rise. Coastal

plantations have higher exposure to inltrationso salt water and fooding. Shallow rees that are

ully exposed to sunlight in areas with little windhave higher exposure to a rise in surace watertemperatures (CRISP 2011).

2. Sensitivit is the degree to which a community is

negatively aected by climate changes. For example,amilies or communities may be highly sensitive i

commercial coastal or subsistence plantations areexposed to changes in temperature, rainall and

foods derived rom climate change. I exposed reesorm the principal shing area that is the sourceo ood and income or a community, then that

community is highly sensitive to coral bleachingresulting rom raise o ocean temperatures (CRISP,

2011; Marshall et al., 2009).

3. Adaptive capacit is the potential o a community

to adapt, to ameliorate or to recuperate romthe impacts o climate change; it is determined

by knowledge and organizational, productive,social and institutional resources. For example a

wellinormed community with good organizations,cultural traditions and community participation maybe capable o developing good plans and making

decisions that help all members o the community.A household with sucient income rom diversied

sources is better able to adapt to climate change,in comparison with those that depend on oneactivity and/or are below the poverty level. Adaptive

capacity is the component o vulnerability that ismost susceptible to the infuence o social systems,

and consequently is an evident ocus or adaptation(CRISP 2011; Marshall et al. 2009).


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2

4. Figure 3. Co-dependence between ecoogica and socia sstems. The dierent eements cannot be

evauated without reerring to the others (Hobda et a. In revision: taken rom Marsha et a. 2009).

Exposure Sensitivity

Potentialimpracts

Ecologicalsystems

Socioeconomicsystems

Potential

impacts

Adaptativecapacity

Adaptative

capacity

Resourcedependency

Ecological vulnerability-

exposure social system

Vulnerability

socioeconomic


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II. Objectives

3. To identiy the projected impacts o climate change

on the livelihoods o coastal communities thatdepend on the natural systems.

4. To identiy the priority areas or coastal ecosystemrestoration or conservation , to continue or

improve the provision o goods and services tothose communities.

GENERAL OBJECTIVE

To determine the level o climate change vulnerability o natural and social systems alongthe Carribbean coasts o Belizea, Guatemala and Hondura; and to identiy priority areas to

implement adaptation actions.

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

1. To present the scientic bases or climate change

trends, in increase availability or decision makers asthe basis o their adaptation policies and practices.

2. To identiy the impacts o climate change predictedor coastal and marine habitats that are the basis o

coastal communities livelihoods and which reducethe risk o extreme weather events.


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4

III. Methodology

This vulnerability analysis was conducted based on the

methodological ramework proposed by Schrter et al.(2005), and modied by the consultants:

DEFINITION OF THE STUDY AREA

The Exposure and sensitivity to climate change wereanalyzed using the boundaries o the watersheds o

the Mesoamerican Ree and the exclusive economiczones o Belize, Guatemala and Honduras (Figure4-A). Watersheds were originally included consideringthat changes in storms, hurricanes and rains derived

rom climate change determine the volume o waterand sediments aecting the availability o resh water,estuarine salinity, fooding and sedimentation in the

marine zone. However, only changes in terrestrialvegetation were considered in this analysis.

The coastal municipalities o Belize, Guatemala and

Honduras (Figure 4-B) were used to analyze the adaptivecapacity o human communities, as these were themost appropriate administrative units with statistical

inormation on social and economic aspects or thethree countries.


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Exposure anaisis area

Terrestria Marine Kes and Isands

A

Figure 4. Stud area. Map A shows the stud area used in the exposure and sensitivit anasis.

Map B shows the stud area or the adaptive capacit anasis in the marine and coasta zone,

and consequent vunerabiit to CC.


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Vunerabiit anasis area

Terrestria Marine Kes and Isands

B


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FOCAL ISSUES OR TARGETS

Climate change aects dierently every element othe social and natural systems. Banking may not be

as aected as sheries, and manatees less than corals.Similarly most adaptation measures can only be targeted

to specic elements. Thereore the analysis chooses themost relevant elements o the social and natural systemas ocal issues.

The ocal issues o this analysis are elements o the

natural systems (ecosystems, habitats, species, and keysites or species) that are considered important due totheir contribution o goods and services, and that could

be aected by climate change. Social ocal issues are keyelements o the social system that are critical or human

communities and the economy, and that are likely to beaected by climate change given the location or their

dependence on natural resources sensitive to climate

change.

NATURAl SySTEM ElEMENTS:

1. Coral rees and corals2. Fish spawning aggregation sites.

3. Sea grasses.4. Important shing sites.5. Sea turtle nesting sites.

6. Beaches.7. Mangroves and other coastal wetlands.

8. Coastal and migratory birds.

SOCIAl SySTEM OBjECTS:

1. Human populations: housing and service

buildings (schools, hospitals, shopping centers,etc.).

2. Artisanal and industrial shing.3. Tourism: hotels, restaurants, tourism attractions

and accesses.4. Coastal inrastructure: ports, marinas, piers,

roads, industrial installations and airports.

5. Commercial and subsistence agriculture.

DEFINITION OF THE ANALYSIS

PERIOD

The degree o exposure o natural and social systems toclimate change depends on the level o change in physical

and climate variables. Thereore we use climate changeprojections to determine the targets exposure.

Two temporal horizons were used or sea suracetemperature, rom 2030-2039 and rom 2090-2099; atemporal horizon o 2070-2099 was used to determine

change in rainall patterns and air temperature, due tothe high level o uncertainty or the period 2030-2039.

Historical inormation available up to 2010 was used todetermine past sea level rise. It was not projected in the

uture, but it considered areas that are below 8 metersabove sea level as potentially aected by sea level rise,

storms surges, and hurricane waves and foods.

The analysis included historical records o physical andclimate variables:

Air temperature: 1900-2010

Hurricanes and tropical storms: 1898-2010

Sea level: 1951-2010

Sea surace water thermal stress: 2006-2010

Future vulnerability depends on the evolution o

social systems such as human capacity, populationgrowth, change and growth o economic activities, and

inrastructure. These aspects were not projected in theuture; only current adaptive capacity and sensitivity wereestimated considering that the plan seeks to reduce

current vulnerability; and that governments, the privatesector, and individuals can and must take action now.

Future exposure helps us to plan or a less sensitivedevelopment and or societies with greater adaptive

capacity.


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HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TARGET NATURAL SYSTEMS

The analysis develops a hypothesis o the potential impact that climate change eects will have on ocal issues. They arebased on literature review and adapted rom Cambers et al. 2007. In this analysis we did not evaluate the likelihood and

certainty o the hypothesis.

Tabe 2. Hpothesis o impact on natura sstems.

Target CC eect Hpothesis o potentia impact on targets

Coral rees

and rees

Increase o sea suracetemperature.

Sea temperature increase will cause bleaching (zooxantelas algae whichlive in symbiosis with corals, leave the coral) and may cause coral

mortality i algae does not return. The longer the heating periods, thelesser the possibilities o recovery. Also, corals aected by other pressures

(contamination and overshing) are less resistant, becoming moresusceptible to bleaching and less apt to recover.

Increase o CO2

inseawater.

Oceans absorb CO2 rom the air, thereore an increase o atmosphericCO

2increases CO

2concentration in the water, which reduces the quantity

o ions needed or the ormation o calcium carbonate, urther reducinggrowth or bony shes, corals and other invertebrates.

Increase in theintensity o rains.

Increased precipitation will increase sediment discharge, reducing availablelight at the mouth o rivers causing reduced growth and increasedmortality, as well as complete destruction by sedimentation.

Increase in the

intensity o stormsand hurricanes.

Increase in the requency and intensity o storms will augment the

destruction o coral rees without allowing their recovery. In general,rees can recover in 10-15 years rom natural phenomena; the increased

requency o storms will allow less capacity or growth, so rees willdeteriorate.It will also increase the intensity o rains (see previous impact) increasing

run o and sedimentation.

Sea level rise.

Growth o healthy corals can be maintained despite the pace o sea level

rise unless changes occur so rapidly that the available light is reduced,hampering coral growth.

As sea levels rise, this reduces the capacity o ree crests to dissipate wavesand tides, reducing the unction o protecting the coast against extremeclimactic events.

Sea level rise will aect the coast, which may generate more sediments and

debris that will aect corals.


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Coastalwetlands:

mangroves,lagoons,

savannas

Sea level rise.

Possible loss o mangrove area due to erosion at the edges or loss o

sandbars and lagoons that oer protection.Increase in mangrove surace by relocation and natural migration to the

interior where topography, soils and human use allows it.As sea levels rise, the salinity o coastal lagoons will increase, altering the

species composition (red mangrove is more tolerant to salinity than othermangrove species).Increase in salinity reduces the survival o seedlings, growth and the

photosynthetic capacity o less tolerant species (button, black and whitemangroves).

Increase in air

temperature.

Mangrove productivity, growth, litter production, and the expansion o

certain species are expected to increase in combination with high levels oatmospheric CO

2and the increase in temperatures.

I the water temperature reaches 35C or higher, it can cause thermal

stress to Rhizophora mangle. I the temperature goes over 38C, it canreduce the invertebrate diversity that live in the roots o the mangroves

and possibly prevent the establishment o seedlings.

Increase in oceanCO

2.

Increase in mangrove productivity.Stomatal conductance is reduced.

Increase in theintensity o rains.

Increased precipitation reduces salinity, exposes sulates and increasesnutrient availability.

Increase in droughtperiods.

The decrease in rainall and the increase in evaporation are expectedto cause a reduction in mangrove areas, especially in inland zones withhypersaline areas that will also suer a decline in growth rates.

Increase in the


Mangrove coverage will be severely aected by the increase in the intensity

o hurricanes. Mangrove mortality rates caused by category 4 hurricanes inthe Caribbean are between 68 and 99% in the aected areas.

Beaches,coastal dunes,

low islandsand keys

Sea level rise.This will accelerate erosion o beaches and cays, eventually altering thecoastal topography, eliminating dunes and barriers between the sea and

interior lagoons or bays. It will also eliminate cays and small islands.

Increase in theintensity o storms

and hurricanes.

It will exacerbate beach erosion and erode sand barriers, cays and islands.


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Sea turtles

and nestingsites

Sea level rise.

Loss o habitats or nesting sea turtles and birds due to an increase in

erosion and the altered topography o beaches caused by sea level rise andmore requent and intense storms.

Increased tidal height will also food the eggs rom below. I the sand issaturated by the waves o the storms and the subsoil is fooded and doesnot drain properly, the embryos will drown.

Increase in the


Further erosion and destruction o beaches and nests.

Increase in watertemperature.

Could alter migratory routes o turtles (studies indicate that migratoryroutes are heavily infuenced by sea surace temperature and chlorophyll

concentration).

Increase in airtemperature.

The sex is determined by the temperature in the middle third othe incubation period. Higher temperatures avor emales and lower

temperatures avor males within a thermal tolerance range o 25 to 35 C.Hypotheses have been stated that populations could sel-regulate i there

are more individuals rom one sex. Temperature could aect the severity oinections and could increase the outbreak o diseases o marine turtles.

Sea andcoastal birds

Increase in airtemperature.

Approximately 60% o the studies perormed on reproduction show that

at long term, the egg laying dates are changing according to the patterns oglobal warming.

Changes in wind

patterns.

Change in the migration patterns o birds due to changes in the

geographical displacement o winds and an increase in the requency andintensity o storms.


and hurricanes.

The increased requency o storms in the Caribbean may be the cause or

the reduction o some migratory birds. Mortality caused by winds, rainsand foods has been documented or aquatic birds such as the Brown

Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), and the Clapper Rail (Rallus longirostris).Hurricanes cause habitat loss or migratory birds like beaches, coastalwetlands, islands, keys and orests.

Sea level rise. Loss o habitats such as beaches, islands, keys and coastal wetlands.


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Sea grasses

Sea level rise.

Studies have not dened its aect. Changes in light availability, wave energy,

type o substrate and herbivores will infuence marine prairies dependingon the species.

Increase in the

intensity o rains andlonger periods odrought.

More intense rains and storms will increase sediment transport that can

bury marine prairies and reduce light availability.Longer periods o drought will reduce the supply o resh water increasingsalinity, which can be a stress actor or sea grasses.


Grasses could be aected by a change o 1.5 C, reducing their metabolism.Temperatures o 35 C or higher could inhibit root sprout o some species.

Increase in ocean

CO2.

Increase in CO2

will increase sea grass productivity. Together with a slight

rise in temperature, these chemical changes will augment biomass and

detritus.


and hurricanes.

The increase in storms and tidal waves, and the subsequent change in river

fow and sediment transport could destroy sea grasses. Their capacity orrecovery could diminish with storm requency. Marine prairies grow in low

energy environments and an increase in water turbulence could cause theirdisplacement or disappearance.

Coastal and

pelagic shes


The rise in water temperature has caused coral bleaching and mortalityand a prolieration o algae, which has signicantly reduced sh density and

coral ree biomass. Data rom the Sabana-Camagey Archipelago, Cuba.Migration o diverse species to colder waters could cause mass extinctions

due to low dispersion capacity or lack o habitat.Changes in temperatures will impact the distribution and abundance o sh.

IIncrease in oceanCO

2.

There is convincing evidence that suggests that acidication aects

the calcication process, through which corals, mollusks and otherinvertebrates build their skeletons, shells and plates rom calcium

carbonate.

Increase in the


Increase in storm intensity will degrade critical habitat or sh like rees,

mangroves and sea grasses, resulting in reduced the sh populations thatuse them.


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METHODOLOGY FOR MEASURING

POTENTIAL IMPACT

AND VULNERABILITY

Potential impacts and vulnerability were analyzed using

the our most critical climate change eects that canbe mapped or the study area. Then, we selected thosetargets with mapped inormation and which are sensitive

to those eects with a good degree o certainty. Theeects used to measure potential impact were:

Rise in sea surace temperature

Increase in storm intensity

Rise in sea level

Changes in rainall patterns and air temperature

Exposure and sensitivity indicators were dened or

each eect o climate change. Indicators were scored

using the methodology proposed by Preston et al.

Increase in sea suracetemperature

Increase in sea leveland coast risk

Change precipitationpatterns and air

temperature

V

R

Exposure Sensitivity Vulnerability

Following is a description o the methodology used to measure the potential impact o each climatic eect,

the indicators used and sources o inormation.

E S C

Exposure SensitivityAdaptiveCapacity

Figure 5. Conceptua approach to assess potentia impact and vunerabiit or each o the three eects

o cimate change and to integrate the vunerabiit o the stud area.

(2008), according to which indicators were given a score

rom 1 to 5, where 1 represents the lowest exposureor sensitivity, and 5 the greatest. The indicators wereestimated or three temporal scenarios: current, 2030-

2039 and 2090-99.

The adaptive capacity o human communities was thenestimated using 8 indicators, evaluated on the samescale with the lowest adaptive capacity 5, and the

greatest 1. In this analysis, which considered only currentconditions; the conditions measures by the indicators

were not projected in the uture. Then, the three typeso indicators (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity)

were added to estimate the net vulnerability rom each

eect in the current scenario (Figure 5).


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Figure 6. Causa mode used to measure the potentia impact o the rise in sea surace temperature.

Climate Topography

Sstems

Materia resources Socia resources

Adaptive

capacity

Sensitivity

Exposure

Natura sstem

Socia sstem

Sea surace temperature

Water colunmsupericial

Tourism

Ree coral

Fishing

PotentialImpact

Vulnerability

Natural Physical

Finance

Human Social

Cultural Political


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6

The methodology used to analyze changes in sea suracetemperature (SST) was developed by the Coral Ree

Watch (CRW, http://coralreewatch.noaa.gov/), part othe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA), and consists o:

1. Nocturnal data selected rom the Coast Watchdatabase, to eliminate the eect o direct sunlightand to reduce variations in SST caused by solar

warming.2. Monthly mean SST calculations.

3. Levels o thermal stress evaluated by comparingthe maximum monthly average rom the baseclimatology (MMM, 2001 2005) with the monthly

temperature or the study period (SST, 2006 2011). Table 5 shows the thermal stress evaluated

according to the dierent states that may ormay not produce sucient stress to cause coral

bleaching.

Tabe 5. Therma stress indicator or marine areas subect to a rise in sea surace temperature (NOAA

Cora Ree Watch 2011).

State Interpretation Denition

Without stress (1) No thermal stress Hotspot (1) equals 0

Attention (2) Low thermal stressHotspot (1) above zero but below the SSTthreshold or bleaching

Warning (3) Accumulating thermal stressOver the SST threshold or bleaching; DHW(2) above

0

Warning level 1 (4) Bleaching is expectedOver the SST threshold or bleaching; DHW(2) 4 or

above

Warning level 2 (5)Generalized bleaching and some

mortality is expected

Over the SST threshold or bleaching; DHW(2) 8

above

Notes: (1) Hotspot: areas where SST data exceed the average temperature observed in the hottest month o the year.(2) DHWs show the amount o stress rom heat accumulated in a certain area over the last 12 weeks (3 months). In

other words, Hotspot values are added when the temperature exceeds the bleaching threshold.

The base climatology data used in the analysis was takenrom the NOAA Coast Watch (http://coastwatch.

noaa.gov/ ) database which contains global Sea SuraceTemperature data at a spatial resolution o 5 km2.

Thermal stress was evaluated using scenarios o utureSST increases based on Donner (2009). The database

presents simulations or two emission scenarios (B1and A2); one or each scenario, and evaluates temporalthresholds such as those mentioned above (or 2030-

2039 and or 2090-2099), or a total o our simulationso uture climate.

Data is reported as SST anomalies, which are thedierence between current and uture temperatures.

The rst step was to add these to the base climatology(2001-2005), and then nd hotspots where there

is a rise in Sea Surace Temperature, using the samemethodology as the baseline data.


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Increase in hurricane intensity

The question analyzed here is: What areas are historically more aected byhurricanes? What areas have more requent hurricanes, and which have been

struck by stronger hurricanes?

All the analysis targets are sensitive to hurricanes, especially human populations,rees and beaches. Hurricane Center has mapped hurricane trajectories or thelast 150 years with their intensity marked on the trajectory in the study area, and

then overlapped on the targets location.

Tabe 6. Hurricane exposure and sensitivit indicators.

Indicators Source o Data

Exposure indicators

Areas aected by hurricane intensity Historical data or tropical cyclones (NOAA, 2011)

Areas aected by increased requency o hurricanes Historical data or tropical cyclones (NOAA, 2011)

Sensitivit indicators or natura sstems

Agriculture exposed to more requent hurricanesCoral ree coverage (WRI, 2011) and areas aected by

increased requency o hurricanes

Agriculture exposed to higher intensity hurricanesCoral ree coverage (WRI, 2011) and areas aected by

hurricane intensity

Inrastructure exposed to more requenthurricanes Coral ree coverage (WRI, 2011) and areas aected byincreased requency o hurricanes

Urban and inhabitated areas exposed to higher

intensity hurricanes

Coral ree coverage (WRI, 2011) and areas aected by

hurricane intensity

Urban and inhabitated areas exposed to morerequent hurricanes

Coral ree coverage (WRI, 2011) and areas aected byincreased requency o hurricanes

Tabe 7. Hurricanes are cassied in 5 categories according to wind speed.

Category 1 2 3 4 5

Wind speed (km/h) 119153 154177 178209 210249 250

Tide height (m) 1.21.5 1.82.4 2.73.7 4.05.5 5,5

Pressure at the center o the hurricane (hPa) 980 965979 945964 920944


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8

averaging SSH measurements o all the oceans on the

plant. Unlike the oceanographic measuring stationsthat measure relative sea level, the altimeter allows the

registry o absolute variations in global sea level, preciseto tenths o mm/year. These variations in global sea levelinclude: a) expansion or contraction due to variations in

water density (determined by changes in temperatureand salinity); b) exchanges o water with continents, the

atmosphere and polar caps: c) low requency variationsin ocean circulation.

In the conceptual model or coastal vulnerability to sealevel rises (Figure 7), exposure (in red) is driven by the

interaction between the weather system and coastaltopography. Sensitivity (in yellow) is a unction o the

ecosystems, productive activities and inrastructure

present on the coast. The combination o exposure andsensitivity creates the potential or an adverse eect.

Adaptive capacity (in green) is based on material andsocial capital used to address potential impacts and

vulnerability. The critical processes and interaction arerepresented by arrows.

Rise in sea level and risks

to the coast

This analysis was based on estimated relative (sea to

land) and absolute changes o sea level (SL). Relativemeasurements are based on tide gauges installed on

the land surace which are aected by changes in theirsurace position, thereby aecting their measurements.Absolute changes are measured using high precision

satellite instruments that were installed in the 1990s.

Ocean volume increases over very large geological timescales (109 years), while morphological changes to oceanwatersheds and tectonic plates that occur on temporal

sales o 107 108 years, could result in changes in sealevel o hundreds o meters. Sea level has changed over

temporal scales o hundreds o thousands o years asthe result o climate changes caused by the cyclical

exchanges o water between sheets o ice and the

ocean. In addition, changes in the elevation o the earthscrust (isostatic ice) continue to occur, and estimates

o changes in global sea level should be corrected or aconsideration made or this eect.

Global ocean volume changes due to climate change

also occur on temporal scales measured in decadesas a result o thermal dilation and exchanges o waterbetween the ocean and other reservoirs, including

the atmosphere. Global changes in sea level have beennoted on this scale, due to changes in ocean currents

and atmospheric pressure. Sea level can be modiedat the local and regional levels by tectonic, subsidence

and sedimentation processes. Regional processes maypredominate in the current scenarios o rising global sealevel (~ 3 mm/year), with regional variations ranging rom

-1 mm/year to 10 mm/year.

Sea level has been measured globally by NASA and theEuropean Space Agency since 1992 with a precision

o 5 mm at 10-day intervals, using altimeters aboardgeophysical observation satellites in polar orbits. Thealtimeters measure the distance between the satellite

and the surace using radar pulses, with sea suraceheight (SSH) calculated considering the precise position

o the satellite with respect to an ellipsoid surace oreerence (a model o the orm o the earths surace).

Global average sea height is altimetrically calculated,


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Figure 7. Conceptua mode or coasta vunerabiit to sea eve rise.

Material Resources Social Resources

Land use and development

Potential

Impact

Vulnerability

Naturalsystem

Social system

Tides

Climate Topography

CoastElevation

Cyclons Coastslope

Sea level rise Beach type

Adaptive

i t

Sensitivity

Exposure

Tourism Fishing Agriculture Inraestructure

Land use

Natural Physical

Finance

Human Social

Cultural Political


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The data used to analyze sea level rise reerred to the relative rise (rom tide gauges) and absolute rise in sea level(rom remote sensors) in the Ports o Corts and Castilla in Honduras and Santo Toms in Guatemala. The ollowing

table lists the number o years o collecting data o each type.

Tabe 10. years o data compied per port and remote sensing station to cacuate reative and absoute

rise in sea eve.

Portyears o data

Reative increase

years o data

Absoute increaseTota ears

Corts 20 18 38

Castilla 13 18 31

Santo Toms 16 18 34

Changes in rainall patterns

and air temperatureThe ollowing databases and climate change scenarios

and models used to analyze projected temperature andrainall anomalies were used to analyze exposure:

Baseine cimate data: Changes in air temperature

and rainall were evaluated using the World Clim(Hijmans et al. 2005) climatological database, whichprovided a set o global weather data at a spatial

resolution o 1 km2 or the period o 1960-1990.

Future cimate data: The climate change scenarios

used come rom the World Climate Research Program(WCRP), rom group CMIP3 (Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project phase 3), used in the IPCC AR4report. These scenarios have been scaled down (to a

resolution o 2.5 minutes, approximately 5 km) by TheNature Conservancy (TNC) Caliornia in three groupso radiative orcing (IPCC-SRES), B1 and A2 with 48, 52

and 36 scenarios respectively or the period 2070-2100,or a total o 136 uture climate simulations (Table 11).


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2

Tabe 11. Simuations used or Genera Atmospheric-Ocean Circuation Modes (GAOCM).

GAOCM 20th Cent low emissions (B1) High emissions (A2)

BCC-CM1 1 1 0BCCR-BCM2.0 1 1 1

CCSM3 8 8 4

CGCM3.1(T47) 5 5 5

CGCM3.1(T63) 1 1 0

CNRM-CM3 1 1 1

CSIRO-Mk3.0 1 1 1

ECHAM5/MPI-OM 4 3 3

ECHO-G 3 3 3

FGOALS-g1.0 3 3 0

GFDL-CM2.0 1 1 1

GFDL-CM2.1 1 1 1

GISS-AOM 2 2 0

GISS-EH 3 0 0

GISS-ER 5 1 1

INM-CM3.0 1 1 1

IPSL-CM4 1 1 1

MIROC3.2(hires) 1 1 0MIROC3.2(medres) 3 3 3

MRI-CGCM2.3.2 5 5 5

PCM 4 3 4

UKMO-HadCM3 2 1 1

UKMO-HadGEM1 1 1 0

Total 58 48 36

Cacuating exposure to changes in raina and air temperature: Exposure to rainall is measured according to

the number o simulations that predict a drop o over 50% in rain all based on the IPCC methodology on probabilityo change, which evaluates the amount rom simulations that exceed the established threshold (decrease in rainall over

50%). When


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Exposure to changes in temperature is measuredaccording to the amount o simulations that predict

a temperature rise in excess o 3 C. The samemethodology was used to evaluate exposure to changes

in rainall.

Changes in vegetation tpe according to theHodridge ie zones sstem: a simulation o theHoldridge lie zones system was developed to evaluate

the probabilities o change in vegetation type as aproduct o climate change. The Holdridge system

which is based on values o latitudinal region, altitudinalfoor and ground moisture, was used to construct themethodology proposed by Zamora-Pereira (2011), based

on the ollowing steps:

Denition o atitudina foors: Using WorldClim (Hijmans et al 2005) as the base climate data,

monthly average and annual biotemperatures were

calculated to dene the altitudinal foors, and nallyan average was obtained or the twelve months.

This is the mean annual biotemperature, which wasused to generate a layer o inormation that denes

the altitudinal foors, with the ranges separatedbetween 0-1.5, 1.5-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-17, 17-24, and

24-30 degrees.

Denition o ground moisture: The second

variable calculated was monthly precipitation.When added, these values gave the total annual

precipitation or absolute annual precipitation.This layer o inormation was useul in obtaining

moisture provinces. Annual precipitation data wasreclassied in the ollowing ranges: 62.5-125, 125-250, 250-500, 500-1000, 1000-2000, 2000-4000,

4000-8000, and > 8000 mm.

Denition o atitudina region: The third andlast variable is biotemperature at sea level. This was

obtained by combining the average biotemperaturesor a site and at its elevation, thereby dening thelatitudinal region o the lie zone according to

geometric progression that indicates temperaturedecreases as elevation above sea level increases.

Construction o base ie zone maps: Finally

the current lie zones distribution map wasconstructed by overlapping layers o the above

inormation using a geographic analysis program(ArcGIS 9.3). This constitutes the map o reerenceor later analysis o changes in the distribution o lie

zones.

Future ie zones: The same methodology wasused to determine scenarios o uture lie zone

distribution, with a total o 136 uture distributionmaps constructed. Climate variable values are

reported as climate anomalies or each month; thatis, the dierence between current climatological

data (1961-1990) and uture simulated data (2070-2100).

Cacuating exposure uncertaint: Uncertaintyo uture climate results reers to the dierent

possibilities or dierent data in the proposeduture timerame. An analysis was run comparingchange between lie zones using current distribution

as the base and comparing it with each o the136 simulations; the IPCC (2005) uncertainty

methodology was then applied to reclassiy thearea according to the number o simulations that

indicated changes in orest type. Exposure was

determined to be Very Low when


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Figure 8. Conceptua mode or assessing vunerabiit to changes in raina and air temperature.

Material Resources Social Resources

Climate

Natural system

Social system Sistema social

Adaptive

Sensitivity

ExposureTemperaturevariability

Averagetemperature

Averagerainall

Rainallvariability

Wind Moisture

Temperature change Temperature changeWindchange

Moisturechange

PotentialImpact

Vulnerability

Vegetation Land use Elevation Slope

Tourism Fishing Agriculture Inraestructure

Natural Physical

Finance

Human Social

Cultural Political


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6

ESTIMATING THE ADAPTIVE

CAPACITY OF HUMAN

COMMUNITIESAdaptive capacity can be estimated at the individual,community, sector and regional scale. Although an

estimation o the adaptive capacity o a communitymay derive rom the adaptive capacity o the individualsthat orm the community, an assessment o community

characteristics may oer inormation that better refectsthe capacity to respond to climate change (Marshall et al.

2009).

Dierent actors must be considered and evaluated using

a variety o methods, including the analysis o censusinormation, key inormant surveys rom businesses,

industry, government, research organizations, NGOs,indigenous groups and the public in general (Marshall etal. 2009).

Each site may have certain unique characteristics thatmake some indicators better than others or evaluating

vulnerability. A list o possible social indicators or eachactor that contributes to vulnerability may be extensive,especially when those indicators or adaptive capacity

depend on specic local situations, as these could covera wide range o social conditions (CRISP 2011). Thirteen

indicators were chosen or this project shown in Figure

9. However municipal level data available in the threecountries allowed the evaluation o only 6 indicators

(Table 13).

Figure 9. However municipa eve data avaiabe in the three countries aowed or the evauation

o on 6 indicators (Tabe 13).

ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY --->

EXPOSURE OF THE SOCIAL SYSTEM

SenstivitCC1. Demographic vulnerable groupsCC2. Dependence on the resources andservices vulnerable to the impacts o CC

Adaptive CapacitCC3. Actual livelihoods and home income diversity

CC4. Perception o alternative and complementarylivelihoods

CC5. Awareness o vulnerability to climate risksCC6. Access and use o available knowledge related

to the weatherCC7. Formal and inormal support networks or

the adaptation and risk reduction to the climate

CC8. Capacity o the community to organizeCC9. Leadership and governance

CC10. Equitable access to resourcesCC11. Cultural fexibility

CC12. Access to basic healthcareCC13. Access to basic inraestructure

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

VULNERABILITY


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Tabe 13. Criteria to anaze adaptive capacit at the regiona and oca eve, possibe data coection

methods and exampes o use (adapted rom Wongbusarakum and loper 2011).

Criteria Indicator Use o inormation

CC1. Demographic vulnerablegroups.

% o the population in poverty and extremepoverty

Identiy groups with higher risksassociated to CC and require the most

support.

CC2. Dependence on the

resources and services vulnerableto the impacts o CC.

% o the population whose principal livelihoods

(more than 50% o their income) dependon de natural resources: tourism, shing andagriculture

Predict impacts o CC in livelihoods, the

economy and ood security, points outthe livelihoods that are highly sensitive to

particular climate threats.

CC3. Actual livelihoods and home

income diversity.Number o local productive activities.

Identiy the economic sensitivity o thecommunities to CC and other external

threats.Identiy necessary options or livelihood

diversication.

CC4. Perception o alternative and

complementary livelihoods.

Quantity o existing skills in key activities

(shing, agriculture and tourism)

Identiy possibilities necessary resourcesor livelihoods adaptation to CC and

other external threats.

CC6. Access and use o availableknowledge related to the weather.

% illiteracy.

Capacity o communities to understand

the impacts o CC and the need toeducate, identiy actual and potential uses

o inormation on CC.

CC7. Formal and inormal supportnetworks or the adaptation andrisk mitigation to the climate.

Number and type o existing networks.

Adjust extension and education programsto ace CC, and ll gaps in inormation

networks.

CC8. Capacity o the community

to organize.Number and type o community organizations.

Identiy potential networks that can

transer inormation related to CC andgive support, collaborate with existingnetworks that can support adaptation and

planning.

CC9. Leadership and governance.Number o coordination platorms withimpacts on resources or territories to CC.

Assessing whether a community is ableto restructure itsel ater suering an

impact, determine the level o condencewithin a community, identiy areas that

should be strengthened or adaptationwork, understand the level o stakeholder

participation in management and decisionmaking.

CC12. Access to basic healthcare. Lie expectancy at birth

Identiy vulnerable segments o the

population that could be less capable oadapting to CC.

CC13. Access to basic

inrastructure.Calories per capita

Identiy access to basic inrastructure,as greater adaptation is expected withgreater access.

CC13. Access to basicinrastructure.

Kilometers o roads (in relation to the suracewith 99% o population)

Identiy the access to basic inrastructurebecause more access is expected to bemore adaptive.

% population with access to drinking water

Indicators were applied per municipality and data was classied in 5 categories (1 major and 5 minor). These were then added togive the adaptive capacity or each municipality.


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8

INTEGRATING VULNERABILITY DATA

Vulnerability was estimated at the municipality level considering impact (exposure and sensitivity) in relation tothe adaptive capacity o human communities. Adaptive capacity reduces impact, and thereore reduces vulnerability.

Vulnerability was not calculated or rising sea temperatures, as it impacts only marine and not terrestrial targets.Following is a description o how the dierent indicators or exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were added to

determine vulnerability.

Exposure to changes in rainfall and temperature:maps showing potential changes in rainall ortemperature (two maps) under two emissions scenarios

(A2 and B1) were reclassied in ve categories accordingto the probability o change (with 5 the highest

probability).

Exposure to sea level rise: maps showing areasexposed to the rise in sea level. A digital elevationmodel was reclassied (90 m spatial resolution) in ve

categories (Very high: 0-1 meter above sea level; High:1-2 masl; Medium: 2-4 masl; Low: 4-8 masl; and Very low:

8-16 masl).

Mapping sensitivity of targets: the analysis considerednatural vegetation (mangroves), shing sites (coastallagoons), areas with potential or agricultural and

population use. The maps are binary and indicate targetspresence (1 or the areas where the element is present,

0 or sites where the element is absent). A summarizedmap was then constructed by adding and reclassiying

them using a logarithmic code instead o a binary codeto dierentiate each o the elements in the map (Coastallagoon: 10, Mangrove, 100, capacity or agricultural use:

1000). A logical order o elements present in the samespace was respected where areas overlapped, with

priority given to natural elements (coastal lagoons andmangroves), and nally potential elements (capacity or

soil use).

E S C V

R

Exposure SensitivityAdaptivecapacity

Vulnerability

Increase in sea surace

temperature

Increase in sea leveland coast risk

Change precipitationpatterns and air

temperature


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In the case o temperature and rainall changes, thepotential vegetation map developed by CATIE using

Holdridge lie zones (Zamora-Pereira, JC; Molina, LG;Imbach, P. Pending publication) was added to areas with

natural vegetation cover (code 10000). The map projectsuture potential changes in vegetation according to

changes in rainall and temperature according to dierentscenarios.

Calculating sensitivity for each effect. A sensitivitymap was constructed by multiplying the exposure map o

one eect (categories 1 to 5) with the targets (presence)sensitivity map, resulting in a map with values between1 (very low) and 5 (very high). There was no need to

reclassiy the map.

Adaptive capacity: Determined as previously explainedor all coastal municipalities, classied in ve categories.

Important to note that categories are ranked inversely:

category 1 is very high capacity and 5 is very low.

Vulnerability to each impact: This was obtained bymutiping the nal sensitivity map (with categories

rom 1 to 5) by the adaptive capacity map (1 to 5).Vulnerability results vary rom very low (1) to very

high (25). The results were reclassied in ve classes inorder to obtain the relative vulnerability o the study

area. For example one pixel with sensitivity 4 (high) ina municipality with a capacity 2 (high), results in a pixel

with vulnerability 8 (low). The nal area maps cover onlythe coastal marine municipalities.

Vunerabiit CassResut rom mutiping

capacit b sensitivit

Very high 5 21-25

High 4 16-20

Medium 3 11-15

Low 2 6-10

Very low 1 1-5

Integrated vulnerability: The reclassied score (1 to 5)or vulnerability to changes in rainall and temperature

and vulnerability to sea level rise were added, and theresults reclassied in 5 categories.


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Thermal stress was very marked rom 1998 to 2007, as can be seen by the ollowing map. A generalized bleachingthroughout the world occurred in 1998, seriously aecting the rees in the study area.

An assessment o the uture exposure to thermal stress o the study area shows that both emissions scenarios (B1 andA2) or the period 2030-2039 show a continued warming towards the Punta Manabique zone and towards the exterior

o the Gul o Honduras (Figure 12). However the results or the same emissions scenarios or the period 2090-2099show that the entire study area, the Carribbean sea territory o Belize, Guatemela and Honduras will be under thermalstress (Figure 13).

Figure 11. Therma stress eves, 1998-2007.


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2

Figure12.

Thermalstresslevelsfor2030-2039underemissionsscenariosB1(currentpage

)andA2(oppositepage).


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4

Figure13.

Thermalstresslevelsfor2090-2099underemissionsscenariosB1(currentpage)andA2(oppositepage).


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Figure14.

Reefsensitivitytoseasurfacewarmingduring

theperiod2030-2039,underemissionsscenarioB1.


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Figure17.

Hurricanefrequency,

1851-2009.


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0

Figure18.

Hurricaneintensity,

1851-2009.


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Figure 19. Hurricane requenc b categor rom 1970 to 2004. Source Wikinson, C.,

and Souter, D. (2008).

Hurricane strength has increased over the last 150 years o recorded history.According to records, event categories 4 and 5 are now more requent, and

event categories 1 and 2 are less requent (see gure 19). Hurricane strength willcontinue to increase as sea surace temperatures increase according to climatechange projections.

According to the IPPC (2007a), the global sea level rose

at an average rate o 1.8 [1.3 a 2.3] mm per year rom1961 to 2003. Other authors (Domingues et al. 2007)

have estimated a rise o 1.5 0.4 mm yr-1 during thesame period, similar to the range managed by the IPPC

or that period. Sea level rise in the Southern FloridaKeys is estimated at 30 cm over the past 110 years, or

an average o almost 3 mm per year.

RISE IN SEA LEVELOne o the greatest consequences o climate change

is the rise in sea level, which intensies stress in manyareas, and particularly in areas with human activities

(Feenstra et al. 1998). Change in sea level is producedby global, regional and local actors such as changes

in sea surace temperature, salinity, winds, oceancurrents, contributions rom El Nio and La Nia

phenomena (IPCC 2007a), glacial isostatic adjustmentsand subsidence, and either natural or caused byhumans. Consequently the relative rise o sea level is a

consequence o climate change as well as many otheractors that vary rom place to place (Nicholls 2010).

50

40

30

20

10

0

70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 00-04 05-09 10-14 14-19

Perce

ntageofhurricanespercategory

Categor 1

Categories 2 & 3

Categories 4 & 5

Five ears


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2

I GHG are stabilized by 2100 at levels o scenario A1B (720 ppm), thermal expansion itsel would cause an additionalrise in sea level o 0.3 to 0.8 m in 2100 over that o 19801999 (IPCC 2007a). Other actors such as changes in

currents and ice thawing may also aggravate this impact. According to predictions or the Caribbean, sea level will riserom 0.18-0.59 m by 2099 (Cambers et al. 2007). Results obtained by other authors, such as Rahmstor (2007) with the

application o uture IPPC climate change scenarios (2010), hold that sea level could increase between 0.5 to 1.4 m overthe 1990 level (IPCC 2007a).

Figure 20. Methods or measuring sea eve: tide gauge (reative) and sateite (absoute).


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Records rom tide gauges in 3 ports in the study areawere analyzed, as well as satellite measurements taken

since measurements began in 1992 (Figures 21, 22, 23).

It is a proven act that sea level has increased in absoluteterms at three dierent points in the study area, and in

relative terms in two points. Sea level in Puerto Cortsrose 9.2 mm per year rom 1945-1975 (Figure 22), andin Puerto Castilla 3.1 mm per year rom 1954-1970

(Figure 21), both relative to land. This is a total rise oalmost 30 mm, similar to data rom the keys o southern

Florida. Results measured by tide gauges in the PuertoSanto Toms in Guatemala (Figure 23) show a reversetrend rom 1962 to 1982, although not the absolute

measurements taken by satellite.

Figure 24 shows the results in absolute terms or analysisstations placed in ront o the ports or the period 1992-

2010. All cases show a clear rising trend. Data indicate

an increase o 8 cm in Puerto Castilla, 3.4 cm in PuertoCorts and 3.5 cm in Puerto Santo Toms.

Sealevel(mm)

pendiente = 3,1452 mm/ao

years

Sealevel(mm)

pendiente = -1,3841 mm/ao

years

Sealevel(mm

)

pendiente = -9,235 mm/ao

years

Figure 21. Reative change in sea eve in Santo

Toms.

Figure 22. Reative change in sea eve

in Puerto Castia.

Figure 23. Reative change in sea eve in Puerto

Corts.


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Puerto Corts

Puerto Castia

m= 1.764 mm/ao

m= 4.404 mm/ao

Santo Toms

m= 1.788 mm/ao

Sealevelanomaly(cm)

Sealevelanomaly(cm)

Sealevelanomaly(cm)

Figure 24. Absoute rise in sea eve in the Port o Santo Toms (Guatemaa), Corts and Castia

(Honduras) or periods o time between 1992 and 2009.


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Exposure

Exposure to coastal hazards is dened by proximity

to the coast and the topography. Most o the territoryevaluated is at a suciently high altitude to avoid

exposure to sea level rise. The only aggravating actor isthat the population and inrastructure are concentratedwithin the rst kilometers o the coast.

Tabe 14. Assessment o exposure to the rise in sea eve.

Eevation

above sea eveGrading justication

< 1 meter Very highAreas highly exposed to fooding and erosion due to tides, extreme rains, andstorms o all categories with the actual sea level.

Areas covered with the oreseen sea level rise or 2090.

1 to 2 meters High

Areas exposed to fooding by storms at the current sea level.

Areas highly exposed to fooding and erosion due to tides, extreme rains, andstorms o all categories with the oreseen sea level rise or 2090.

2 - 4 meters Medium

Areas exposed to extreme events (3, 4, 5) under current conditions.

Areas exposed to fooding by storms and tides with the sea level rise predictedor 2090.

4 - 8 meters LowAreas exposed to extreme category 5 events under current conditions.Areas exposed to fooding by extreme events with the current sea level.

8 - 16 meters Very low Areas not currently exposed and not exposed with sea level rise.

Areas at 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 meters above sea level were determined using the digital elevation model at 90 m ollowingthe scoring table, giving as a result the exposures stated in the map in Figure 25.

Areas with greater exposure are the Districts o Corozal

and Belize City in Belize, and the municipalities oTrujillo and Brus Laguna in Honduras. The municipality o

Livingston in Guatemala and the Honduran Municipalitieso Arizona, Esparta, La Masica, La Ceiba, Jutiapa and Utilainclude areas with signicant exposure (Figure 25).


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Sensitivity

Regional sensitivity to impacts is the use o their development patterns, such as their use or shing, agriculture,inrastructure, population, and their current altitude above sea level. One variable not considered in this study was

distance rom the coast and fooding zones. The population o coastal municipalities and districts in 2010 was 237,500 inBelize, 166,200 in Guatemala, and 733,600 in Honduras, or a total o 1,137,300 inhabitants.

More developed areas and those with a greater population are more sensitive, such as Belize City, Puerto Barrios,Puerto Corts, La Ceiba, and Trujillo (Figure 27). In comparison, the Municipality o Brus Laguna, with a signicant

exposure, is considered to have a relatively low sensitivity given its lack o development and low population density.

Figure 25. The impact o sea level rise is derived rom the magnitude o increase and presence o sensitive

ecosystems and inrastructure costs. The clear intrusion o sea level can be seen on local inrastructure in La

Ceiba, Honduras (let) and Livingston, Guatemala (right), which was originally built ar rom the shore (Photos

L.Corrales and Black Caribbean Nationa).


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Figure26.

Coastalzoneex

posuretosealevelrise.


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Figure27.

Sensitivityof

coastalareasandBayIslandtosealevelrise.


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CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE

AND RAINFALL PATTERNS

An analysis o a set o climate change indices taken in2005 or Central America and or the period 1961-2003

shows that the region is undergoing a general warmingtrend, with a greater occurrence o days with maximumextreme temperatures and a rise in the minimum

temperature, while low temperature events havedecreased.

Annual rainall indices indicate no signicant increase,although rains have been observed to be more intense.

That is, rainall patterns have changed, resulting in moreintense rains during a shorter period o time (Aguilar et

al. 2005).

ExposureThe mean annual global temperature has risen close to

one degree (0.6C) since 1888 (Figure 28). In CentralAmerica, the average annual temperature has risen

approximately 1o C since 1900; the number o hot daysand nights increased 2.5% and 1.7% respectively perdecade, while cold nights and days decreased -2.2% and

-2.4% respectively. Extreme temperatures have risen 0.2oC to 0.3o C per decade. (Aguilar et al. 2005).

The analysis considered changes in air temperature

according to emissions scenarios B1 and A2 or theperiod 2070-2099. Exposure was measured according

to the certainty that an increase o over 3C will ocurr,according to the dierent scenarios modeled. The IPCC

methodology species the ollowing categories:

Cassication % o scenarios that predict

a 3 0C

Very low


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0

Figure29.

Exposureofs

tudyareatochangesinairtemperatureaccordingtoemissionssc

enariosB1(currentpage)

andA2(oppositepage)

for2070-2099.


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Figure30.

Studyareaex

posuretochangesinrainfallfortheperiod2070-2099,accordingtoemissionsscenariosB1(page6

1)

andA2(currentpage).


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4

Sensitivity

Agriculture is the most important sector that is sensitiveto increased temperature and reduced rainall. Projections

using scenario A2 show that most agricultural areas willbe highly aected.

Natural vegetations sensitivity to changes in temperatureand rainall was assessed by quantiying probability o

changes in Holdridge lie zones. Holdridge combinedtemperature, humidity, altitude and latitude to dene lie

zone, thereore predicting changes in tempereature, andhumidity will predict changes in lie zones as well. Each liezone is composed by a particular combination o species,

so a shit rom one lie zone to another caused by changesin temperature and humidity will change the species

composition.

Figure 31. Maps (gure 31) show the results obtained

using emissions scenarios B1 and A2 or the period 2090-2099. According to the results, most current lie zones

will change, with the greatest changes occurring in higherelevations (above 2,000 masl).

Figure 31. (next page). Changes in lie zones refect

vegetation sensitivity to changes in rainall andtemperature or the period 2070-2099, according to B1(above) and A

vulnerability analysis to climate change along the caribbean coasts of belize, guatemala and...

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