vulnerability assessment and strategic environmental assessment
DESCRIPTION
PGR Conference Presentation at The School of Environmental Sciences, University of LiverpoolTRANSCRIPT
Addressing climate change in Nigeria: Vulnerability Assessment and SEA
Adedamola AderiyeSchool of Environmental Sciences
Background
Climate change is happening• Observational evidence from all continents
and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases
• The magnitude of impact varies in terms of geographical location, seasonality, population exposure and development pathways
- IPCC, 2007
Background• Climate change will have a net negative
impact on developing countries.• African countries are the most
vulnerable to the most damaging impacts of climate change, due to the variable climate, propensity for drought and desertification, rapid population growth, endemic poverty, dependence on subsistence agriculture, complex governance and institutional dimensions
• Climate change does not yet feature prominently in developing agenda or policies of most African countries
Issues arising• What is stakeholder perspective of climate
change and other associated risk?• Is there a framework that can provide
guidance to Nigeria on how to address current and future vulnerability to climate change?
• What are the criteria influencing spatial planning policy in Nigeria?
• Are there any barriers in the integration of climate change concerns in spatial planning?
Objectives
1. To develop a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in spatial planning.
2. To use the framework for evaluating spatial/land use plans in Lagos and two other Nigerian city regions.
3. To determine the elements of SEA that are currently reflected in the spatial plan regime in Nigeria and to establish if there are links between the elements and the extent to which climate change vulnerability is considered.
4. To propose recommendations on how best to integrate climate change concerns into spatial planning in Nigeria.
Objectives
MethodologyThe label attached to a particular research strategy is not as important as its appropriateness for the research to be carried out – Saunders et al. (2009)
Philosophical inclination- Pragmatic worldview
The main vehicles to be employed in this research are documentary analysis of literature, qualitative interviews with policy makers and regulators, and survey of SEA and Vulnerability experts.
Research design
Objective 1Devise a climate
change vulnerability framework.
Objective 2Evaluate spatial land
use plans in Lagos and two other
regions.
Objective 3Establish elements of SEA in existing spatial planning
Objective 4Recommend how to
integrate climate change concerns
into spatial planning
Use framework toUse framework to
Link theory with practice by interviewing Town Planning regulators and Policy makers
Research findings are validated through survey of SEA practitioners
·Determine if the elements exist in practice· Examine if they
identify climate change vulnerability
Literature review and development of analytical framework
Preliminary findings• Little or no attention is paid to climate
change in Nigeria• The scant climate change incentive is driven
by international agreements and financing requirements
• No framework or criteria in place to assess climate change vulnerability in a developing country context
• Social vulnerability cannot exist in isolation from biophysical vulnerability
• Structures and processes in a location, play an important role in determining the magnitude of climate change experienced
Exposure
Geographical context
Biophysical vulnerability
Social vulnerability
Coupled human-environment system
Disaster
Eventual vulnerability to climate change
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability reduction
Climate exposure
Structures and processes
Coping capacity
Exposure
Geographical context
Biophysical vulnerability
Social vulnerability
Coupled human-environment system
Disaster
Eventual vulnerability to climate change
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability reduction
Risk identification
and assessment
Risk evaluation
Climate exposure
Structures and processes
Laws and Policies
Coping capacity
Questions
Spatial dimension of Vulnerability
Resilience
Sensitivity
Factors controlling susceptibility
Exposure
Coping capacity
Geographic context
Biophysical vulnerability
Social vulnerability
Eco
no
mic
En
viro
nm
enta
l
So
cia
l
Hazard potential
Coupled human-environment system
Structures &
Processes
Dynamic pressures / Non-climatic stress
Failure to cope
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability reduction
e.g sea wall barrier
e.g tree planting
e.g awareness
INTE
RVE
NTI
ON
e.g land use change
Risk identification, assessment &
action
Leading to new levels of vulnerability
Potential for another hazard
Disaster
Eventual vulnerability to climate change
The PreliminaryVulnerability Framework
Research area
NigeriaSurface area – 923,768sqkmPopulation -168.8millionGDP – US$459.6 billion (2012)Life expectancy – 52yearsPoverty percentage - 46%Vegetation- from near desert
conditions in the north to swamp mangrove in the delta
Source: World Bank