vulnerability assessment within the metropolitan...
TRANSCRIPT
Julie Conroy
Senior Environmental Planner Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Vulnerability Assessment within the Metropolitan Area
Metro Boston
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
Environmental Business Council
March 5, 2013
2 2
MAPC & the Metropolitan
Boston Region
3
• 101 Cities & Towns
• 3 million
• 32 Coastal Cities &
Towns
• MetroFuture
• Climate Change
Adaptation
Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
4
• MAPC & Tellus
• Project Scope:
– Advisory Committee &
Public Outreach
– Vulnerability Analysis
– Regional Adaptation
Goals & Objectives
– Implementation
Strategies to Reduce
Vulnerability
• Fall 2013
Advisory Committee
5
Predicted Climate Change Impacts (for MA)
6 Adapted from MA Climate Change Adaptation Report
Parameter Current Conditions
(1961-1990)
Predicted Range
by 2050
Predicted Range
by 2100
Annual temperature (°F) 46 50 to 51 51 to 56
Winter temperature (°F) 23 25 to 28 27 to 33
Summer temperature (°F) 68 72 to 73 72 to 78
Annual sea surface temp. (°F) 53 56 61
Annual precipitation (in.) 41 5% to 8% 7% to 14%
Winter precipitation (in.) 8 6% to 16% 12% to 30%
Summer precipitation (in) 11 -1% to -3% -1% to 0%
Sea-level rise (in.)* -- 6 to 16 11 to 79
Streamflow-spring peak flow
(days following Jan. 1) 85 77 to 80 72 to 74
Droughts lasting 1-3 months
(#/30 yrs) 13 18 to 20 16 to 23
Length of growing season
(days/yr) 184 196 to 211 213 to 227
Vulnerability Assessment
7
Factors Affecting Vulnerability
8
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potential
Impact
Source: Allen Consulting Group 2005.
Approach
Identify Impacted Sectors:
1. Human Health and Welfare
2. Coastal Zone
3. Natural Resources and Habitat
4. Built Environment & Key
Infrastructure
5. Local Economy and Government
9
Heat-related
morbidity & mortality
Vector-borne diseases
(Lyme, EEE, West Nile)
Pollen,
Ozone Asthma
Frequency of waterborne
diseases (crypto, E coli,
giardiasis)
Algal blooms (Red tide,
cyanobacteria)
Human Health & Welfare
Source: Chartered Institute of Environmental Health
Coastal Zone
Wetlands have moved over time in relation to sea
level rise/changing tides, and will continue to move
Failure of coastal structures and significant
adjacent shoreline changes
Coastal Zone
Natural Resource/Habitat
13 Source: Iverson, L; Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 13
• Maple, beech & birch shift 350-500 miles north
• Lobster & cod shift towards N. Gulf of Maine
• Insect and tree diseases flourish
Built Environment/Infrastructure
14
• Increasing water tables & saline
conditions
• Inundation of septic and WWTP
treatment facilities
• Stormwater and CSO systems
overload
• Stressed local water supply
systems(non-MWRA)
• Infiltration from aging
infrastructure
Local Economy and Government
• Economic activities reliant on ecosystem
services: Agriculture, fishing, forestry,
recreation/ tourism
• Government (various levels) preparedness
and planning
• Government resource needs
16
Outreach
17
• Advisory
Committee Orgs.
• MAPC Subregions:
Municipalities
• Cambridge
Climate Protection
Action Committee
• City of Boston
• The Boston Harbor
Association
• Environmental
Business Council
What the Towns are Saying…
• Additional data needed on heat mortality
• Synthesized data needed to justify changes in
local regulations
• Extreme cold as vulnerability
• Consideration of wildlife and species needs
• Too conservative scientific estimation of impact
18
Adaptation
19
Adaptation Vs. Mitigation
Mitigation = 1st step – minimize climate change impacts
Adaptation = Anticipate/prepare for future conditions
Source: Penney, 2008
Adaptation
Three Key Elements:
NOAA Digital Coast Tool - Coastal Resilience Framework: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/coastalresilience
1. Protect
2. Accommodate
3. Retreat
4. Do Nothing
Regulation Change (Wter)
Open Space Planning
Regulation Changes
Interdepartmental
Coordination
Design Review/Guidelines
Transfer of Development
Rights
Source: MA CZM
Adaptation - Repurposing
Regulation Change (Wter)
• Land/Building Acquisition
• Regulation: Setback requirements, floodplain zoning,
planning consistency review, etc.
Adaptation Built Environment
Source: Georgetown Law; Harrison Inst. For Public Law Source: Subdivision Design in Floodplain Areas.
• Elevation of the lowest floor two feet above the Base
Flood Elevation
• Walls that are “substantially impermeable to the passage
of water” (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Proofing
Regulations).
Adaptation Redevelopment/Building Guidelines
Source: LA Storm Smart Coasts
Adaptation
Integrated Water Management
Water Conservation/Greywater
Reuse
New Water Conveyance
Desalination
Riparian Restoration
Green Infrastructure Source: Sustainable Water Management Wiki
Source: Dr. C.J. Woltemade, Shippensburg Univ. Source: Australian Water Association. Source: City of Portland, Environmental Services
• Protect Wetlands: Update Wetland Bylaws, Restore Deteriorated
Wetlands, etc.
• Maintain shoreline features: Planting Dune Grasses, Renourishing
Beaches, etc.
Adaptation Natural Resource Protection
Critical Feedback
• Towns have not yet addressed adaptation
• Assistance needed…
– Subdivision regulations revision to account for future
precipitation projections
– Benchmarks and setting thresholds at which adaptation
measures are implemented
– Inter-municipal coordination, esp. emergency response
– Managed retreat: Zoning to prevent rebuild in vulnerable
areas (e.g. Flood/Storm District Overlay)
– Siting Green Infrastructure & LID
27
