Vulnerability indicatorsand their relation to the measure selection

Natasha Marinova

ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting

30 March 2011, Budapest

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DPSIR Framework

Water Scarcity – Water stress

Drivers Pressures State Impacts

Climate change T • Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)

• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding

capacity

Jobs

Incomes

PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)

•Structural changes•Land use changes:

Urbanization•Resource use efficiency•Management practices

Quality and quantity of waste water

DroughtsDrivers Pressures State Impacts

Climate change T

• Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)

• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding

capacity

Changes in return period of drought events

Baseline: Minimum flow during a drought event with recurrence period of 50 years D50base

Future (2050): Minimum flow during a drought event with a recurrence period of 10 years D10future

Severe drought event if D10future< D50base

• Relative area affected by droughts

• People affected by drought

Jobs

Incomes

PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)

•Structural changes•Land use changes:

Urbanization•Resource use efficiency•Management practices

Not adjusted to the drought event water demand

Quality and quantity of waste water

Population affected by droughts for EcF and SuE scenarios

Agreement of model runs projecting severe drought events

• Large areas in the Mediterranean Western and Eastern Europe with agreement of up to 100%

• Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of France, Ireland, UK

• Heterogeneous result in Central and Western Europe

FloodsDrivers Pressures State Impacts

Climate change T

• Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)

• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding

capacity

Changes in magnitude of 1-in-100 y flood event

• Area affected by floods

• People affected by floods

Jobs

Incomes

PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)

• Land use changes – urbanization, deforestation, development in flood prone zone, control of rivers

• Level of protection (design return level)

•River bed sedimentation •Loss of wetlands and riparian zones•Soil sealing•Not properly planned drainage

Relative area affected by floods

• Based on the ensemble median

• More than 80% in part of the UK and the Netherlands

• ~ 20% in southern Norway, parts of France, and the Alps

People affected by floods

Agreement of model runs projecting severe flood events

• Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of western France, the Netherlands, Eastern Europe and parts of UK, Spain, Italy, Norway, Sweden

• Low flood risk around the Baltic see

Sea Level Rise

People affected by SLR, 2080

Source PESETA, Coastal Report

Thank you!