Vulnerability to Climate Change in TanzaniaSources, Substance and Solutions

Jouni PaavolaCSERGE, UEAJune 20, 2003

1. Guiding ideas

Pluralist theories of well-being and its measurement, which underlie the human development approach

Physiometric strand of economic history, which has examined the interactions among nutrition, health and productivity

New growth research, which examines the implications of social capital and the quality of informal and formal institutions for economic performance

Together the three strands of research suggests that there are many distinct sources of vulnerability which cannot be eliminated by one-dimensional measures.

Human development needed for economic performance and the reduction of vulnerability, and institutions and state can be either obstacles or instruments for both.

2. Predicted Climate Changes

Tanzania is predicted to warm by about 2-4 C by 2100, less than the “hot spots” of Africa. Warming takes place mainly as the warming of the cold and dry season.

Rainfall will decrease in the interior of the country by 0-20 percent and increase in the coastal region by 30-50 percent.

Dry seasons will become longer where rainfall is predicted to decrease. Increased rainfall will in turn be received mainly during the primary rains.

Climate variability due to ENSO and SST variations in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean is predicted to increase

More frequent and severe droughts and floods in cards. The former will burden especially the interior and the latter especially the coastal areas.

3. Predicted Climate Change Impacts Yields of certain staple crops such as maize and potato will be

hardly hit. Maize yields can drop on average by a third but at places up to by 80 percent.

Yield changes of cash crops such as coffee, tea and cotton uncertain but unlikely to be significantly adverse

Land cover changes may reduce the amount of forests and woodlands, which in turn threatens energy supply and rural household incomes

Water availability for power generation, irrigation and public supply will be diminished.

Spread and incidence of vector-borne diseases is predicted to increase. Epidemics of water-borne diseases to increase due to droughts and flooding.

4. The Concept of Vulnerability

Vulnerability has been defined as “the capacity to be wounded” by climate change impacts

Vulnerability is the other side of adaptive capacity: vulnerability implies weak adaptive capacity and strong adaptive capacity means reduced vulnerability

Adger and Kelly (1999) have described vulnerability both as a state and as a set of factors that constitute that state and dispose certain individuals and groups as “vulnerable”

Leichenko and O’Brien (2002) argue that vulnerability also has a dynamic side to it – a change towards a more or less vulnerable state.

5. Sources of Vulnerability

Human capital, aspects of which include longevity, health, nutritional status, literacy, education, skills and information

Availability of and access to technological alternatives such as transport and telecommunication networks, public utilities and agricultural inputs

Levels and sources of income

Income and other forms of inequality

Aspects of social capital such as trust, transparency, accountability, security of entitlements, and the quality of informal and formal institutions

6. Human Capital

Life expectancy is low 45.6 years and infant mortality (100/k births) and child mortality (164/k births) high

AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, diarrhoeal diseases, accidents and maternal conditions are the commonest causes of death

Half of population undernourished, 29 percent of children underweight, and 44 percent under height for their age.

Literacy rate 75.1 percent. While 90 percent of children start primary education, only half of them complete it. Enrolment in secondary and tertiary education low.

Disparities in human development between urban and rural populations.

Most indicators depict a downward trend during the 1990s, which may be difficult to reverse

7. Technological Alternatives

Radio is the only effective means of information dissemination and source of information in the country

Lack of transport infrastructure forms an obstacle for the formation of functioning national markets as well as for the access to more confined markets

Water supply and sanitation are still based on stand-alone solutions and only a few have access to network technologies

Access to electricity networks is very limited and biomass remains the most important fuel and source of energy

Despite the allocation of resources for the improvement of infrastructure, technological alternatives of the majority of Tanzanians will not change greatly in the near future

8. Levels and Sources of Income

Tanzania has one of the lowest per capita income levels in the world, $ PPP 523 in 2000. Per capita income has not grown much in real terms in the past fifteen years.

Agriculture and other primary production generates half of the income while manufacturing accounts for only 10 percent of it.

Tanzania exports 10 percent of its GDP. Half of this consists of agricultural products such as coffee, cotton and tea. Other resource exports are important, too.

Income levels and sources of income unlikely to change radically in the near future.

9. Income and Other Inequalities

Tanzania is a relatively equalitarian LDC with its gini value of 38.8. Richest decile earns 11 times more than the poorest decile. Poorest quintile earns 7 percent of income.

Yet half of the population remains below the national poverty line and over 20 percent of it survives with less than $ 1 per day. Direct link with human development outcomes.

Inequality between urban and rural populations manifests itself in disparities in human development and in access to technology.

Lower incomes and poorer access to public services are both obstacles for human development in rural areas.

Income inequality may increase rather than decrease in future because of economic reforms. Internal migration may alter the rural / urban divide but not necessarily to the better.

10. Social Capital and Vulnerability

Social capital is an attribute of social units that facilitates the individual and collective pursuits of their members

Homogeneity, trust, accountability, transparency and the quality of informal and formal institutions are terms that address aspects of social capital

Lack of social capital results in weak civil society and state, which cannot assist people in the reduction of vulnerability

Civil society and the state are often understood as distinct entities but but their qualities are intertwined because state is always nested within civil society

11. Social Capital & Civil Society

Slave trade, natural disasters and colonialist policies shattered the integrity of traditional communities and their authority systems before and during the colonial era.

The establishment of ujamaa villages during interdependence specifically aimed at uprooting old authority structures and relocated 13 million people

The organisation of ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) was used to monitor and control population in the new villages

Yet the power of CCM was not based on violence and its equalitarian ethos was based on widely shared beliefs

Voluntary collective action is successfully used to provide public safety, to manage natural resources, and to engage in income-generating and political activities

12. Social Capital & The State

Political system and public administration addressed as the two central aspects of the state. Judiciary ignored here.

Despite the long rule of CCM as the only party, the political system functions quite well. This is manifested by the relatively smooth transition to multi-party system and pluralism

Central and local public administration has suffered from the lack of accountability and corruption. Lack of capacity means that public service provision is compromised.

Several reforms of public administration under way. Their adequacy and effectiveness is still unclear. Yet prospects for improvement are there.

Conclusions (I)

Rural poor are the most vulnerable group in the country because of their lower level of human development, limited access to technological alternatives, and low levels of income

Maintaining communal access to rural environmental resources and improving their governance is one way of shielding the rural population against the worst possible outcomes

Governance solutions based on local involvement and authority are also likely to build social capital and capacity which can be harnessed for other purposes

Sharing of governance tasks and responsibility with the central government is, however, needed to ensure legitimacy, learning, and the transfer of lessons

Conclusions (II)

Building of national markets and facilitating access to them will also be important in order to mitigate the effects of shortages and to improve incomes

Public spending and social welfare programs especially in the areas of education, public health and health care are the third important element in reduction of vulnerability

Reduction of vulnerabilities has to focus on the set of factors that constitute them, in addition to treating those of their symptoms which demand urgent attention

Institutional reforms aimed to strengthen the political system and public administration will be important for the successful reduction of vulnerabilities.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in TanzaniaSources, Substance and Solutions

Jouni PaavolaCSERGE, UEAJune 20, 2003