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Prospects for the sustainability of social-ecological systems (SES) on theMongolian plateau: five critical issuesTo cite this article: Jiquan Chen et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 123004

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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf27b

Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 123004 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf27b

TOPICAL REVIEW

Prospects for the sustainability of social-ecological systems (SES)on theMongolian plateau: five critical issues

JiquanChen1 , Ranjeet John1,2, Ge Sun3, Peilei Fan4 , GeoffreyMHenebry1 ,MaríaEFernández-Giménez5,YaoqiZhang6,HogeunPark4,7, LiTian8 , PavelGroisman9,10,11 , ZutaoOuyang1,GingerAllington12 ,JianguoWu13, ChangliangShao14,AmartuvshinAmarjargal15,GangDong16 ,GarikGutman17,FalkHuettmann18,RaffaeleLafortezza19,20 , ConnorCrank1 and JiaguoQi1

1 Department ofGeography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences andCenter forGlobal Change and EarthObservations,Michigan StateUniversity, East Lansing,MI 48824,United States of America

2 Department ofGeography, Oklahoma StateUniversity, Stillwater, OK 74078,United States of America3 Eastern Forest Environmental ThreatAssessmentCenter,USDAForest Service, ResearchTriangle Park,NC27709,United States ofAmerica4 School of Planning, Design, andConstruction andCenter forGlobal Change and EarthObservations,Michigan StateUniversity, East

Lansing,MI 48824,United States of America5 Department of Forest &Rangeland Stewardship andCenter for Collaborative Conservation,, Colorado StateUniversity, Fort Collins, CO

80523,United States of America6 School of Forestry andWildlife Sciences, AuburnUniversity, Auburn, AL 36949,United States of America7 School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC SanDiego, La Jolla, CA 92093,United States of America8 Institute ofGeographic Sciences andNatural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China9 NorthCarolina StateUniversity atNOAA,National Centers for Environment Information, NorthCarolina StateUniversity, Asheville,

NC 28801,United States of America10 P P Shirshov Institute forOceanology, RAS, 36Nakhimovskiy Ave.,Moscow, 117997, Russia11 Hydrology Science and Services Corp., Asheville, NC 28804,United States of America12 Department ofGeography, TheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity,WashingtonDC,United States of America13 School of Life Sciences and School of Sustainability, Arizona StateUniversity, Tempe, AZ 85287,United States of America14 Institute ofAgriculturalResources andRegionalPlanning,ChineseAcademyofAgricultural Sciences,Beijing100081,People’sRepublic ofChina15 Department of Economics, University of theHumanities, Ulaanbaatar 210620,Mongolia16 School of Life Sciences, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, People’s Republic of China17 NASAHeadquarters, 300 E Street, SW,Washington,DC 20546,United States of America18 Institute ofArctic Biology, Biology&WildlifeDepartment,University ofAlaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK99775,United States ofAmerica19 Department ofGeography, University ofHongKong, People’s Republic of China20 Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Bari, Bari, I-70126, Italy

E-mail: jqchen@msu.edu

Keywords: social-ecological systems,mongolian plateau, land use, institutional change, sustainability, global change

AbstractTheMongolianPlateauhosts twodifferent governments: theMongolianPeople’sRepublic and the InnerMongoliaAutonomousRegion, aprovincial-level governmentof thePeople’sRepublic ofChina.Thedivergencebetween these governmentshaswidened in thepast century,mostly due to a series ofinstitutional changes that generateddifferent socioeconomic anddemographic trajectories.Due to itshigh latitude andaltitude, thePlateauhasbeenhighly sensitive to the rapid changes in global and regionalclimates that have altered the spatial and temporal distributionsof energy andwater.Basedona recentworkshop to synthesizefindings on the sustainability of thePlateau amidst socioeconomic andenvironmental change,we identifyfive critical issues facing the social-ecological systems (SES): (1)divergentanduncertain changes in social and ecological characteristics; (2)decliningprevalenceof nomadism;(3) consequences of rapidurbanization in transitional economies; (4) theunsustainability of large-scaleafforestationefforts in the semi-arid andarid areas of InnerMongolia; and (5) the role of institutionalchanges in shaping theSESon thePlateau.Weemphasize that lessons learned in InnerMongolia arevaluable, butmaynot always apply toMongolia.National landmanagementpolicies and regulationshavelong-termeffects on the sustainability of SES; climate change adaptationpolicies andpracticesmustbetuned to local conditions and shouldbe central todecision-makingonnatural resourcemanagement andsocioeconomicdevelopmentpathways.

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1. Social-ecological systems (SES) on theMongolian plateau

The contingent, heterogeneous, and adaptive dynamicsof ecological (Holling 1996) and socioeconomic systems(Rosser 1999) often yield complex behaviors in coupledSES, with emergent properties that defy reductionistapproaches (Holling 2001,Walker et al 2002, Allen et al2003, Ostrom and Cox 2010, Binder et al 2013, Chenet al 2015b, Turner et al 2016). Further complicationsarise from the disparate scales of observation used tostudy ecological and socioeconomic systems, makingmeasurements at commensurate scales in space andtime an exception rather than the rule. For example,data on crop and livestock production may be reportedannually at the provincial level based on a survey ofproducers. In contrast, gross primary production maybe measured annually at 1 km or finer resolution basedon remote sensing data streams with a temporalresolution of twice-daily. Making linkages betweenbiogeophysical variables retrieved from remote sensingand socioeconomic variables reported through admin-istrative channels is fraught with uncertainties, missingand unreliable data, heterogeneity inmeasurement andmodeling techniques, and mismatches of scale. Never-theless, it is possible to use disciplinary understandingto identify relationships between socioeconomic andecological processes that generate observable, expectedpatterns. These patterns then become the basis forevaluating differences among SES.

The Mongolian Plateau hosts a natural experimentof opportunity for investigating SES: a vast ecosystemused by pastoralists since 1300 BCE (John et al 2009,Fernández-Giménez et al 2017) that was subdivided inthe early 20th century into two governmentswith differ-ent socioeconomic systems: the InnerMongolia Auton-omous Region (IM), a provincial-level government ofChina, and the country of Mongolia (MG). Over time,environmental policies, economic development anddemographic pressures have progressed at differentrates and intensities across the political border, result-ing in quite different landscapes and social-ecologicalconditions. For instance, rapid land use con demo-graphics and urbanization throughout much of IM andassociated regulatory mechanisms (John et al 2009,Fernández-Giménez et al 2012) has resulted in muchhigher rates of land degradation compared to MG(Fernández-Giménez et al 2012, John et al2013, Liu et al2013,Wang et al 2013,Dangal et al 2016). There are alsomarked differences in economic development (Wanget al 2013, Zhang et al 2017), human demographics andurbanization patterns (Fan et al 2016, Park et al 2017),livestock population trends, and agricultural develop-ment (Fernández-Giménez et al 2012, Qi et al 2017).Furthermore, there is a major ethnographic differencebetween IM and MG, where MG is an independentcountry (with ~96% of its population being ethnicMongols) while IM is a part of China with ~80% of its

population being Han Chinese. In both cases, weobserve tendencies of growing urbanization. However,within-country migration to Ulaanbaatar is accom-panied by the depopulation of rural areas, while in IM astrong influx of population from other Chinese pro-vinces has compensated the rural (and, in particular,nomadic)population decline. These variations in socio-ecological parameters are compounded by spatio-temporal variation in climate (Liu et al 2013, John et al2016, Groisman et al 2017), as well as interactive feed-backs among the elements of SES (Hardin 1968, Chenet al 2015b, Hao et al 2016a, Allington et al 2017, Hesslet al 2018).

Similar to other SES across the globe, the functionsand dynamics of the SES on the Plateau are affected bymultiple contingent drivers (Turner et al 2016) includingpopulation, economy, market globalization, global toregional climatic changes, and the emergence of onlineinformation exchange (Chen et al 2013, Groisman et al2017, Allington et al 2018, Fan et al 2018a). Severalmajorgeopolitical shifts—e.g. the collapse of the former USSR,transition from a planned to a market-driven economy,and accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO)—have also played major roles in shaping the SES since1980 in IM and since 1991 in MG (Chen et al 2015a).Specific institutional changes include the various policiesproposed and implemented at the national level thatmayprotect the environment, prevent natural disasters andattenuate natural disturbances (e.g. desertification, sandsstorms), and/or promote socioeconomic development—all of which are critical for the stability and sustain-ability of SES. For example, in IM, ‘The Three-NorthShelterbelt’ and the ‘Grain to Green’ programs wereimplemented to restore degraded grasslands and tomiti-gate the impacts of local climatic change, desertification,and soil erosion. In MG, the ‘Law on Lands (1994)’ andthe ‘LawonAllocationof Land toMongolianCitizens forOwnership (2002)’ aimed to improve management andprotection of land resources and to promote their‘rational use’ (Fernández-Giménez and Batbuyan 2004,Fernández-Giménez et al 2008, Gao et al 2016). Thesenational policies further exacerbate the different trajec-tories of the two SES, exhibiting different structures andfunctions, and differential vulnerabilities to disturbances(see specifics in section 2.5). From an institutional per-spective, Chen et al (2015a) reported that the collapse ofthe USSR was the most important institutional shift ofSES for MG; whereas, the accession of China into theWTO appeared to be the key event affecting SES devel-opment in IM. Despite this accumulated knowledge,there remainmany questions about the short- and long-term sustainability of the SES, especiallywith the increas-ing pressures from new economic shifts (e.g. mining,resource extraction), land conversions, climate change,landuse and shifts, and rural out-migration.

In June of 2017, 65 scholars gathered in Ulaanbaa-tar, MG for a workshop to synthesize recent scientificfindings relevant to the understanding of the SES of

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the Plateau, as well as our prospects for the sustain-ability of the SES amidst socioeconomic and environ-mental changes. The 3 day workshop was organized toadvance the development of new products, synthesiz-ing data and expertise in human and nature systems.Each participant brought to the table their particularmix of skills, expertise, and data for collaboration. Acall for synthesis topics was sent to all participants twomonths before the workshop. During the workshop,each participant gave a brief presentation, followed bythree rounds of concurrent thematic discussiongroups so that each participant had sufficient time andopportunity for input. Participants were encouragedto move between discussion groups. As expected, along list of current challenges to understanding thefuture trajectories of the SES were identified and dis-cussed (e.g. global and local environmental changes,dzuds, heatwaves, overgrazing, globalization, migra-tion and remittances, etc). Here we summarize thesechallenges into five broad, critical issues that representemerging processes that are key to understanding theSES on the Plateau. One, the divergence between IMand MG has led to observable changes in the relation-ships between ecological and socioeconomic indica-tors that reflect changes in SES development in recentyears. Two, a marked contrast between IM andMG interms of the prevalence of nomadic practices hasemerged due to different sedentarization policies,market integration, improved transportation andcommunication, and the emergence of other eco-nomic sectors. Three, large-scale afforestation in thearid and semi-arid areas of IM is unsustainable. Four,sustainability challenges are being caused by rapidurbanization in both IM and MG due to shifts in landuse and demographics. Five, myriad institutionalchanges arising from outside the Plateau have sig-nificant impacts on SES functions within the Plateau,including globalization (e.g. international trading,information via the Internet, labormigration, etc).

2. Five critical issues

2.1.Divergent anduncertain social-ecologicalsystemsClimate, geomorphological setting, and soils jointlydetermine ecosystem type, structure, function anddynamics from local to global scales (Brown andLomolino 1998), while the richness and accessibility ofnatural resources are the primary reasons for humansto select dwelling places (Diamond 1997). A commoncharacteristic of any SES is that the spatiotemporalchanges in social and ecological characteristics do notmatch, which creates additional challenges for study-ing SES when compared with investigations of thosesocial systems or ecosystems independently (Chen et al2015b, Turner et al 2016). On the Mongolian Plateau,

however, widened mismatches have been found in thepast century, arising mostly from several institutionalchanges that generated different socioeconomic anddemographic trajectories in the two governments. Forexample, the political push to resettle Han Chineseinto IMduring 1950–1980 greatly elevated the popula-tion density and urban development while diluting theproportion of ethnic Mongols in IM (Park et al 2017).The Cold War between NATO nations and WarsawBloc nations led to an anomalously high populationdensity in the remote Bayan-Olgii Aimag in westernMG, where the USSR installed military bases (M,figure 1). After the formal collapse of the USSR in1991, the majority of Bayan-Olgii’s residents movedaway to Russia, to cities in central Mongolia, or toother aimags with greater economic opportunities(Chen et al 2015b). These large-scale changes inhuman population distribution led to land cover/landuse changes (e.g. new development of agriculturallands) that, in turn, affected ecosystem structure andfunction (e.g. species abundance and diversity, spatialdistribution of ecosystem functions; see section 2.3 foran example of large scale afforestation in the GobiDesert).

Rapid climatic changes since the First World Warhave further caused dramatic changes in ecosystemsand land use across the Plateau (Chen et al 2013, Grois-man et al 2017, 2018). There has been an increase in thefrequency of drier summers and colder winters on thePlateau in recent decades (John et al 2016, 2018), butthe rates of change in climatic variables are not spatiallyhomogeneous across the Plateau (John et al 2016).These uneven changes could alter the interactive feed-backs among the elements of SES (e.g. altered albedo-LAI relationship; Tian et al 2018) and, consequently,result in different structure and functions of ecosys-tems. Gross primary production (GPP) and evapo-transpiration (ET), two key coupled ecosystemfunctions, are critically linked to regional naturalresources, grass yield and water availability. These twovariables have varied greatly across the Plateau in spaceand in time (figures 1(a) and (b), Chen et al 2015b, Johnet al 2018) during the past decades (Running et al 2004,Mu et al 2011). Liu et al (2014) reported that northernparts of the Plateau experienced stronger influence ofwarming on ecosystem production, whereas the south-ern parts of the Plateau witnessed stronger directhuman impacts through land use change. Spatial varia-bility in both key ecosystem indicators is apparentwithin each political entity, which have similar ecosys-tems but different socio-political regimes and landmanagement practices, and divergent land cover/landuse change trajectories. Altogether, the spatial distribu-tions of historical natural ecosystems and human set-tings have been substantially altered in recent decades,making an understanding of the functioning of currentand future SES in the Plateaumore challenging.

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A general inverse relationship between socioeconomicdrivers and ecological elements is evident in severalprovinces of Mongolia. Nonparametric trend analysishas shown significant decreases in annual GPP and ET(figures 1(a) and (b)) in the northern provinces (A)(figure 1(a)) that include Mongolia’s three majorcities: Ulaanbaatar, Darkhan-Uul, and Erdenet. It isimportant to note that the detected trends are statisti-cally significant changes in recent decades. Thesetrends do not predict future dynamics, but rather indi-cate past changes. These decreases correspond to aperiod of rapid urban growth from 2000 to 2014 (Parket al 2017). Evidence for the growing urban footprintappears in the increasing trends of livestock density(LSKd) and human population density (POPd) and(figures 1(c) and (d)) in these northern provinces. Theincreased frequency of drought and dzuds (i.e. severewinters) in the last decade has led to a sharp increase inurbanization in the northern provinces (John et al2013, Fan et al 2016, Groisman et al 2017). Significantdecreases of GPP and ET in the north-central provincesof Khovsgol, Bulgan, and Selenge (B) exhibit con-comitant increases in LSKd and POPd (figures 1(c) and(d)). Similarly, the south-central province of Uvur-khangaii (C) shows an increasing trend in GPP and adecreasing trend in LSKd. On the other hand, significantincreasing trends in GPP and ET in the peripheral, east-ern Mongolian provinces of Dornod, Sukhbaatar andKhentii (D) can be attributed to decreasing trends in

LSKd and POPd as people migrated to Ulaanbaatar aswell as to provincial cities (Groisman et al 2017, Johnet al2018).

Some provinces of Mongolia had an inverse rela-tionship. For example, we would predict that thedecreasing trend in ET in the western Mongolian pro-vince of Uvs (E) would be accompanied by increasingtrends in LSKd and POPd, but rather the opposite istrue. Similarly, the GPP increasing trend in the north-ern Mongolian province of Selenge (F) was accom-panied by decreasing trends in LSKd and POPd,contrary to the predicted increasing trends. Theseanomalies may be explained by increases in land usesthat disturb the vegetated land surface, e.g. mining,logging (John et al 2018). Another possible explana-tion for the unexpected relationship between SEStrend pairs is a spatiotemporal mismatch arising fromthe coarse resolution of the MODIS GPP and ET dataand the aggregation of socioeconomic data at the pro-vincial level rather than the county or even districtlevel.

The expected inverse relationship between socio-economic drivers and ecological elements did occur inthe prefectures of IM. ET in southern IM decreasedsignificantly, which corresponds with concomitantincreases in POPd in the heavily urbanized Hohhot,Baotou, and Ulanqab prefectures (G). In addition, theHetao irrigation basin within the Bayaanur Shi pre-fecture exhibited decreasing ET, corresponding to

Figure 1. Long-term changes in (a) gross primary productivity (GPP, gCm−2 yr−1) (2000–2014), (b) evapotranspiration(ET,mmyr−1) (2001–2016), (c) livestock density (LSKd, unit km

−2 yr−1), and (d) population density (POPd, No. km−2 yr−1) on

theMongolian Plateau. The linear trends ofGPP and ETwere based on the 1 kmproducts ofMODISwhile those of POPd and LSKdwere calculated atthe province level (aimag inMongolia andmeng in InnerMongolia) based on the government’s annual statistics(1990–2017). IM andMGare separated by the thick black line.

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increasing POPd (H). On the other hand, the decreas-ing LSKd trend in the central Xilingol prefecture (I)explains in part the increasing trends in GPP and ET.The underlying driving factors here can be attributedto migration to cities and implementation of land usepolicies designed to reduce grazing pressure (Chenet al 2015a, John et al 2016).

Discordance between socioeconomic and ecologi-cal trends also appears in some IM prefectures. Theincreases in POPd and LSKd in the urbanized centralprefectures of Hohhot, Baotou and Bayannur pre-fectures (J) accompany corresponding increases inGPP trends. This anomalous association could beexplained by the development of agricultural land usesat the periphery of cities and the spatial resolutionmis-match in the data. Another interesting anomaloustrend pair appears in the southern Ordos prefecture(K), which exhibited an increased GPP trend but alsoincreases in POPd and LSKd. This increase in GPParises from ecological restoration efforts in the form ofplantation shelterbelts and dune stabilization pro-grams (Wilske et al 2009, John et al 2018). A significantmismatch also occurs between increases in POPd andLSKd and increases in GPP and ET in the southeasternprefectures of Hingaan and the Tongliao (L) pre-fecture, where the significant proportion of irrigatedcroplands might explain the variability (John et al2016).

2.2.Decline in the prevalence of nomadismThe iconic landscape of the Mongolian Plateau is avast, rolling steppe dotted with the portable dwellings(gers) of nomads and diverse herds of livestock tendedby herders proud of their nomadic heritage. Nomadicpractices are an adaptation to a low productivity, highvariability and/or remote and rugged environmentswhere cultivation and more intensive agriculture areimpossible or unsustainable to sustain the livestock(Dangal et al 2016, Shao et al 2017). Today’s Mon-golian Plateau is a land of contradictions as herderpopulations decline, steeply in IM and less so in MG,and livestock numbers grow (figure 2(a)), again withgreater increases in IM thanMG. Land use conversionand land fragmentation coupled with rising livestocknumbers, declining herd mobility, and a changingclimate contribute to pasture degradation in both IMand MG, leading to increased herder vulnerability toextreme events, especially in MG (Chen et al 2015a)(figure 2(a)). This rural-urban migration has beendriven both by ‘push’ factors, namely increasingpastoral livelihood vulnerability, especially inMG, and‘pull’ factors, such as the desire for employment,higher income, education, healthcare, and social net-works (Mayer 2015). The rising livestock numbers inMG may be due to increased investment in absentee-owned livestock by city dwellers. Ecosystems andpastoral society on the Plateau may be approaching a

tipping point, with IM representing a system that hasalready transformed, while MG’s future remainsuncertain.

Although institutions differ in IM and MG, landconversion from grassland to croplands, urbanizationand mining has reduced the extent of rangeland coverand has fragmented ecosystems across the Plateau(Cao et al 2013, Tuvshintogtokh andAriungerel 2013).Species composition and biodiversity are declining inboth IM (Han et al 2009) and MG (Khishigbayar et al2015, Jamiyansharav et al 2018), leading to widespreadconcern about pasture degradation. However, degra-dation is rarely defined in a meaningful way in publicdiscourse, fueling debate and misconceptions aboutcurrent conditions (Addison et al 2012). In MG, threecountry-wide rangeland assessments using differentmethodologies concluded that

conditions (Li et al 2018), but have contributed to areduction in pastoral mobility and loss of nomadic cul-ture (Zhang et al 2007). Here pastoral mobility is a keyadaptive strategy for pastoralists to exploit forage andother pastoral resources (i.e. water, mineral licks, etc)that are variable in space and time in environmentswhere climate, soils and/or terrainmake cultivation andmore intensive livestock or crop production infeasible.Sedentarizing mobile pastoralists would lead to severedegradation of rangelands. Although less is known abouthow declining mobility may increase the risks to climatechange, reduction in mobility would increase vulner-ability of pastoralism or ‘subsidizing’ fodder via externalinputs. However, China is currently implementing newpolicies (e.g. separating three property rights, STPR) toconsolidate rural lands, which may ‘undermine the cor-nerstones of grassland restoration, which are the securityof grassland property and payments for ecosystem ser-vices (PES)policies’ (Li et al2018).

Mongolian society and landscapes are witnessing atransition from a predominantly pastoralist society toa diversified economy with multiple active sectorsincluding agriculture, mining, manufacturing, andservices, including tourism. Although herding andanimal husbandry are a smaller part of the overalleconomy, grazing remains an essential component of

the SES and is important for a significant share of thepopulation. In MG, agriculture accounted for 12% ofGDP and the herding sector for 89% of agriculturalGDP, employing 28% of Mongolia’s labor force in2016 (National Statisitcs of Mongolia 2017). In IM,agriculture accounted for 14% of the GDP, but thepastoralist sector accounted for 43% of agriculture in2016. Nomadism has mostly disappeared in IM and istrending downward in MG, where livelihoods havecycled between pure pastoralism and agropastoralismfor millennia (Fernández-Giménez et al 2017). Whilelivestock levels will continue to rise driven by expand-ing markets (e.g. rising income, exchange for othergoods and services) (Qi et al 2017) and improvingmanagement infrastructure (e.g. advanced road net-works, fencing, hay harvesting and storage facilities),rural populations are shrinking due to out-migrationto urban centers and other social and economicopportunities. The new landscapes feature of morehead of livestock, fewer herders, and more spatiallyconcentrated pastoralist activity. We anticipate thepace of these changes in the coming years will bemuchfaster in MG than in IM, but pastoralist practices onthe Plateau may converge in the future (Chen et al2015a).

Figure 2.Changes in (a) livestock density (LSKd,Unit km−2) and gross primary productivity (GPP, gCm−2 year−1) and (b)GPPper

LSK (MgC livestock−1) in IMandMG in recent decades. GPP:LSKd (i.e. average primary production per livestock) of IM andMG inthemost recent decade appears similar within a range of 7.5–9.5MgCLSK−1 although bothGPP and LSKd in IMwere significantlyhigher than those inMG.

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Transformation of pastoral societies seems inevi-table, but it should not be embraced blindly. There isno single trajectory of change, and a diversity of out-comes are possible. IM has witnessed the fastest andgreatest changes due to its fast-growing transportationinfrastructure, which opened regional and interna-tional markets for IM products and services. At thesame time, myriad environmental problems caused byurbanization, mining, and improper grassland man-agement are mounting (Li et al 2018). Some of thechanges that have taken place in IMmay also occur inMG. On a GDP per capita basis, MG has the largestpercentage of automobile ownership and is the mosturbanized developing country. Nomadic pastoralismis a less attractive livelihood choice for younger gen-erations in MG, and there is concern that pastoralidentity and the cultural knowledge of how to grazesustainably may be lost (Fernández-Giménez et al2017). Herders are more frequently using motorcyclesfor herding and living inmobile homes instead of gers,while receiving weather and pasture updates on theircellphones. These changes signal a technologicaltransformation but not a loss of pastoral mobility inMG, suggesting that the system may adapt whileretaining the essential features of an extensive, mobilelivestock husbandry system. In tandem with land andeconomic development policies, transportation andinformation technologies are thus transforming theecological, economic, and cultural landscapes of thePlateau.

2.3. Unsustainability of large-scale afforestation ininnerMongoliaSince 1978, the Chinese government has placed majorinvestments to afforest a 4500 km long forest belt inNorthern China (a.k.a., the Three-North Shelterbeltor the Green Great Wall) that includes both arid andsemi-arid areas of IM (Li et al 2012). This programwasdesigned to battle expanding deserts (figure 6) and theresulting increase in dust storms that degrade the airquality in northern China, including the nationalcapital of Beijing (Li et al 2012). As part of thisinitiative, another major project commenced in theearly 2000s to afforest the Kubuqi Desert—a majordesert in southwestern IM. An estimated 18 000 km2

poplar plantation was engineered in 2015 with anetwork of wells every 400–500 m to supply a dripirrigation system (figure 3). Two fundamental ques-tions about this afforestation program and othercomparable efforts are: (1) whether these trees willsurvive in the near future, and (2) what are theopportunity costs, i.e. what are the tradeoffs with/among other courses of action regarding their ecologi-cal and economic consequences?

Water is the most critical resource for the sustain-able future of dryland ecosystems (Sun et al 2013).Classical ecological principles state that planting treesin arid and semi-arid biomes is not a viable solution

because water needed by growing healthy trees for EToften exceeds the local precipitation received. Plantingpoplars on uplands with deep groundwater (>10 m)requires some type of specific irrigation, especiallyduring drought years. In spite of the perceived positiveecological benefits of the large-scale plantations, fewstudies have closely examined the ecohydrology ofthese plantations at the stand level (Lu et al 2011). Astudy on a poplar plantation in a suburb of Beijingwith a comprehensive measurement of water fluxessuggested that the annual lux of water from ET is~590 mm (Liu et al 2009, Xiao et al 2013, Zhou et al2014), which is close to the annual precipitation input.This ET-precipitation relationship means that theplantation consumes the majority or all of the pre-cipitation in a normal year, and little to no ground-water recharge can be expected (Xu et al 2018). In drieryears when ET exceeds precipitation, trees will bewater stressed, resulting in reduced productivity, ear-lier leaf drop, and even mortality. The water table atthe Beijing site has been declining at a rate of>1.5 m yr−1 due to groundwater withdrawals forhuman use.When groundwater is not available to sub-sidize the plantation’s demand for water or when thereis conflict between the demands for irrigation andother human uses of the groundwater, the poplars arelikely to die,making such afforestation unsustainable.

This tight water balance between ET and precipita-tion found at the Beijing polar plantation site is verysimilar to that of Kubuqi in IM (Hao et al 2016b). Along term water balance study on water use between aplanted 6 year old plantation and a native shrub landin the Kubuqi Desert (annual precipitation~320 mm)(Wilske et al 2009, Lu et al 2011, Wang et al 2018)found that poplar plantations used more water thanwas received by incident natural precipitation. Thegrowing season ET was similar between the two sites(~220 mm), but the growing season ET at the poplarsite exceeded precipitation by ~80 mm, while the ETof the shrub landwas similar to the precipitation, indi-cating that irrigation is essential to meet the poplars’ET demand. A revisit to the poplar site in 2018revealed that the trees had begun to dieback and hadlow growth rates (figure 3(b)) in spite of the drip irriga-tion implemented onsite. The plantations also lackedany understory and ground cover, likely due to low soilmoisture that limited the positive effects of reducingsoil erosion and dust storms (Cao et al 2011). Clearly,the large amount of water consumption necessary tomaintain healthy plantations may actually impair theecohydrology of neighboring ecosystems at local andregional scales when groundwater pumping is exces-sive (Cao et al 2010, Sun andVose 2016).

The Kubuqi desertification control campaignshave drawn much attention from both scientists andthe public who question its sustainability. Debates onits success/failure are often politically charged. Never-theless, basic ecohydrological principles must be fol-lowed to make artificial ecosystems sustainable.

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‘Planting the right trees in the right place for a clearfunction’ was proposed recently by the IUFRO expertpanel on forests and water and provides guidance forfuture ecological restoration efforts to address forest-water issues. The pros and cons pertinent to the socio-economic and ecological impacts must be evaluated indesigning local restoration plans so that long termnegative consequences may be avoided (Chen et al2015a). This admonition is especially important giventhe rapid changes of climate and land use (figure 6)that have profound influence on ecosystems locatedwithin water-sensitive zones (Mátyás and Sun 2014).Global warming and/or extreme droughts are likely tocause more water stress by increasing water demandand, thus, reduce the areas appropriate for afforesta-tion. This situation is further complicated by con-flicts over water supplies as human populations,standards of living, and water consumption all rise inthe 21st century (Sun and Vose 2016, Qi et al 2017).Although there are not large-scale poplar plantationsin Mongolia, lessons learned from IM could be valu-able for the Mongolian government that has theintention to promote poplar plantations. More

importantly, the large-scale afforestation project waspromoted and funded by the central government.While there have been many news media reports onthe socioeconomic costs/benefits of the program,there remains a major knowledge gap on the socio-economic impacts of the project.

2.4. Consequences of rapid urbanization intransitional economiesWhile urbanization on the Mongolian Plateau hasfollowed the changing trend of the world (i.e. increas-ing the proportion of urban population to the totalpopulation; United Nations 2014), it has three distinctcharacteristics. First, for the past three decades theincrease in urban built-up area has proceeded at amuch faster rate than the increase of urban popula-tion, especially in IM. The urban populationaccounted for 36.3%of the total population in IM, andfor 57.0% in MG in 1990. It increased to 61.2% and72.8%, respectively, by 2016, yielding an annualgrowth rate of 2.6% in IM and 1.0% in MG (WorldBank 2018; Fan et al 2018b). In comparison, both IM

Figure 3.Poplar trees have beenwidely plantedwith incentives from government funding in theKubuqiDesert and thefloodplains ofthe YellowRiver Basin to control wind erosion and abate dust storms. Drip irrigation fromgroundwater is required tomeet the highevapotranspiration (ET) demand in the arid environment. During the past decade (2006–2018), these plantations have shownapparentmortality of top branches, low growth rates, and low productivity. Our field photos in 2006 and 2018 at an eddy-covarianceflux tower in Kubuqi suggest that these plantations are not sustainable and should be replaced by local vegetation (e.g. desert shrubs)when irrigation is terminated.

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and MG experienced an even greater expansion inurban land area compared with the increases in theirurban populations. From 1990 to 2014, IM expandedits urban area by 1.8 times, yielding an annual growthrate of 6.1%. In contrast, MG expanded its urban areaby 1.2 times, yielding amuch lower annual growth rateof 1.8% (Fan et al 2016, 2018a, 2018b). Second, thecapital cities of Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar expandedtheir urban areas at either the same or a slower pacethan their respective jurisdictions. From 1990 to2014, Ulaanbaatar and Hohhot expanded their urbanareas by 1.2 and 1.6 times, respectively (Fan et al2016, 2018a). Third, while IM and MG differ in termsof the hierarchical structure of their cities, both of theircapital cities have substantially higher levels of eco-nomic development than their respective regions.Cities in IM are more evenly distributed in terms ofpopulation and economic development level, whereasUlaanbaatar serves as the primary city of MG anddisproportionally settles over half of the country’spopulation (Park et al 2017, World Bank 2018). In2016, Hohhot had a 50% higher GDP per capita(GDPpc) than that of IM (Fan et al 2018b); similarly,GDPpc of Ulaanbaatar ($5380) was 45% higher thanthe national average of $3694 in 2016 (NationalStatisitcs ofMongolia 2017).

The underlyingmechanisms driving urban expan-sion in IM andMGalso differ. Economic developmentwas suggested as the single most important driver forIM, while both economic development and socialgoods (i.e. provision of healthcare and primary/sec-ondary education) have strongly influenced urbaniza-tion in MG (Park et al 2017). More importantly,various institutional changes seemed responsible forthismassive populationmigration into cities. The cen-tral and regional governments provided public educa-tion and health care services in IM (e.g. the WesternDevelopment Program, Compulsory Education Pro-gram, and the 8337 Development Strategy), whichgreatly promoted the migration of rural populationsto cities (Fan 1999, Gong et al 2012). In addition, twomajor laws—the Law on Land (1994) and the Law onAllocation of Land to Mongolian Citizens for Owner-ship (2002)—have been credited as the primary insti-tutional changes promoting rural-to-urban migrationby distributing land ownership in MG (Endicott 2012,Chen et al 2015a). Based on these laws, rural-to-urbanmigrants could secure land tenure for residence.Therefore, by obtaining urban land tenures free ofcharge, the migrants substantially lowered their risksof rural-to-urban migration. In addition, the keymotivations for migration to cities in IM include ruralpoverty and disparities between urban and rural areasin terms of education, health care, family income, andsocial networking (Dore andNagpal 2006).

Urbanization on the Plateau has faced two majorchallenges from economic and environmental per-spectives. First, as globalization played an increasinglyimportant role in economic development after

Mongolia and China joined the WTO, urbanizationwas consequently influenced by global forces, rangingfrom foreign direct investment (FDI) to tourism andmigration (Fan et al 2016). For example, the miningsector, which is critical to the economy of Ulaanbaataras it comprises 25% of its GDP (Fan et al 2016), hasbeen substantially developed by FDI. Internationalreal estate investors also are actively involved inreshaping the urban landscape of Ulaanbaatar. Deci-sion makers and planners at both national and locallevels must confront the challenge of strategicallyusing global forces for sustainable urban developmentwhile minimizing the risks of global shocks resound-ing locally. Second, with rapid urbanization comesenvironmental challenges and the degradation of landand water resources. Rapid economic developmenthas promoted automobile ownership in MG, particu-larly in the cities (figure 4). During the last twentyyears, the number of registered vehicles grew by1125% in MG and by 1000% in Ulaanbaatar. This fastgrowth of vehicles has caused severe air pollution andtraffic congestion, making Ulaanbaatar one of theworld’s most polluted cities (UNICEF 2018). The highconcentrations of SO2, NO2, and particulate matter(PM) (Fan et al 2016) and their impacts—both short-term and long-term—on residents’ health calls forurban and transportation planning to alleviate trafficcongestion and to improve air quality. Traffic conges-tion involves social costs, including increased traveltimes, loss of quality of living, additional air pollution,and subsequent economic losses. Given the impor-tance of transportation in sustainable urban systems,the current policies and regulatory framework onvehicles and traffic networks should be revisited andadapted to aim for sustainable urban development.Moreover, degradation of land and water resourcesand a lack of propermanagement in the urban periph-ery, such as the ger area in Ulaanbaatar, need attentiondue to the transmission of diseases such as dysenteryand hepatitis A (Uddin et al 2014).

2.5. Policy and globalization—the role ofinstitutional changesLocated inland on the Eurasian continent, the struc-ture and function of the SES on theMongolian Plateauhave been shaped and constrained by the continentalclimate, its landforms (e.g. high latitude and elevation,glaciation) and landlocked nature (i.e. limiting con-nections with the rest of the world), and by itshistorical relationships with China and Russia (Latti-more 1940). Recent advancements in the availability ofthe internet have relieved many constraints (e.g.information exchange, access to knowledge, technol-ogy, education, etc), yet global climatic changes,dependency of IM on China and MG on Russia,market-driven livestock management, and otherintensified land uses (e.g. rapid urbanization, landconversion to croplands, etc) continue to be the

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foundational driving forces for SES on the Plateau. Anexcellent example of institutional influences are thedirect and indirect effects on ecosystems and societiescaused by the collapse of the USSR across CentralAsia (de Beurs and Henebry 2004), Eastern Europe(Baumann et al 2015), Mongolia (Chen et al 2015b)and Russia (de Beurs et al 2017), where national andregional land use patterns, ecosystem functions, andsocioeconomic stability have been dramaticallyaltered. The role of institutional changes on SES(Ostrom 1986, North 1989, Chen et al 2015a, Turneret al 2016) has been and will continue to be pro-nounced because of the vulnerability of complexinteractions among social, economic, and ecologicalsystems to global changes in the wake of institutionalshifts (e.g. emerging policies and regulations), climaticand environmental changes (e.g. warming, unevenprecipitation, drought, heatwaves, dzuds), geopoliticalchanges, and ongoing technological advancements.

While economists have recognized the role ofinstitutions in economic development (North 1989),significantly less effort has been placed on the role ofinstitutional changes in ecosystem processes and func-tions (Hanna et al 1996, Ostrom et al 1999, Chen et al2015a), especially at ecosystem and landscape scales.(Note that here, when referring to institutions, werestrict the focus to governmental agencies guided byformal regulations and laws rather than informal andcultural institutions). This oversight is particularly cri-tical, as classical biophysical models do not directlyconsider the influences of institutions, regardless oftheir constraining role at higher hierarchal levels. Forexample, the rapid recovery of grassland cover inDuo-lun County (IM) in the late 2000s was not a result of

favorable climate, but a direct administrative orderfrom Beijing to eliminate all livestock from the county(Chen 2014). Worse yet, quantitative examinations ofthe complex interactions and feedbacks among theSES elements remain very challenging and are notintegrated within the current SES models. Throughour previous research on the Plateau, we have demon-strated that major policy shifts have changed theempirical relationships among ecosystem GPP, popu-lation density, GDP, and land use (Chen et al2015a, 2015b, Fan et al 2016). Sporadic studies fromseveral disciplines exist (e.g. Costanza et al 2000, Fisheret al 2008), but few have quantitatively addressed theSES dynamics via the lens of complex interactions andfeedbacks among the elements of SESmatrix, and evenfewer have linked the biophysical consequences flow-ing from policy shifts to further policy developmentsdownstream in space or time.

There have beenmany institutional shifts in IMandMG since their political separation in the 1920s.Withinnearly 100 years following the separation, the SES ofthese neighbors have become distinctly different.Mongolia is ~33% larger than the 1.17 million km2

Inner Mongolia. However, MG’s population is only~12% that of IM, its GDPper capita is 34%, and its live-stock population is 51.6% that of IM (figure 2). AfterWorld War II, both IM and MG were governed undersocialist systems until the 1980s when China began itsmovement toward incorporating market mechanismsinto its centrally planned economy. Mongolia attemp-ted a similarmovement after the collapse of theUSSR in1991. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, both joined theWTO and began experiencing feedback from globalmarkets. While IM has been necessarily more

Figure 4.The number of registeredmotor vehicles inMongolia andUlaanbaatar increased exponentially from1997 through 2017.During this period, the number of registered vehicles grew by 1124.9% inMongolia and by 999.6% inUlaanbaatar, and these increasesare largely responsible for the severe air pollution (see Fan et al 2016) and traffic jams (insert photo)well known in the capital.Whilethe public records on the number of registered vehicles inUlaanbaatar are not available till 1997, the growth trend can be inferred bythe total number of registered vehicles inMongolia.

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influenced by changes in the economy of China, MGhas reduced its dependence on Russia and is nowmoreconnected with China, Australia, South Korea, Japan,the EU, and the USA, yielding a lower developmentlevel compared to IM (World Bank 2018). As a result,IM has a much more advanced road and railroad sys-tem—a vital infrastructure for high SES functioning forland locked regions—than MG (figure 5). In 2016, thedensities of paved roads and railroads in IM were 13.2and 5.7 times those in MG, respectively. We speculatethat other infrastructures such as hay harvesting facil-ities, fenced grazing lands, feedstock importing and sto-rage facilities, gravel roads, etc are all more prevalentin IM.

Furthermore, road construction and managementshould be considered from both social-economic andecological perspectives, as shown by land degradationarising from improper road management (figure 5).For example, current transportation policies are biasedin favor of human systems. Issues arising from urbangrowth, agricultural development, large-scale affor-estation, etc were promoted similarly with relativelysmall consideration of environmental degradation.

A mediating variable reflecting the socioeconomicand ecosystem changes is land cover/land use thatdirectly affects the SES functions, such as ecosystemproductivity, crop yields, timber production, familyincome, livestock management, urbanization, etc.Institutions in IM andMG have developed a variety ofland use policies to address these problems. However,these land use policies have had varying degrees ofimplementation success. For example, despite the var-ious policies in IM to restore grasslands by reducinglivestock population size through numerous policies(Bryan et al 2018), there is no evidence showing a

significant improvement in ecosystem GPP or reduc-tion in livestock density (LSKd) (figures 1 and 2).

The proximate causes of these changes appear frommultiple forcings such as land conversion, climatechange and increasing grazing pressure, but the under-lying causes are a legacy of distinct land policies, eco-nomic advancements, and cultural resistance to somedegree in IM andMG. These different institutional con-texts also shape the responses to change in each country.Using livestock as an example, the lack of strong state orcustomary institutions in MG to coordinate grazing fol-lowing livestock privatization contributed to a ‘tragedy ofopen access’, leading to declining herdmobility, increas-ing year-round grazing of seasonal pastures, concentra-tions of herds near settlements and under-use of remoteareas, and increased conflicts over pastoral resources(Fernández-Giménez 2001, Fernández-Giménez andBatbuyan 2004, Fernández-Giménez et al 2017). Inrecent years, there has been an apparent increasein absentee-owned livestock and contract herding(Murphy 2015) which may also contribute to growingherd sizes andpoor grazing practices. In contrast, IMsuf-fered from a ‘tragedy of privatization’: both the livestockand grasslands were privatized through the ‘HouseholdContract Responsibility System’, leading to reducedmobility, increased ecosystem fragmentation, anddiminishedpastoralist culture (Zhang et al2019).

Although still present in both IM and MG, thesocial and economic structure of herding has changeddrastically in IM, with themajority of herders now set-tled in towns and reliant on inputs of purchased feedto sustain their animals, which are stabledmuch of theyear. Few IM herders continue to practice extensivelivestock husbandry and fewer still move their herdsacross the landscape with the seasons. In IM, higher

Figure 5.Distributions of paved roads and railroads on theMongolian Plateau, showing amuch higher road density in InnerMongolia than that inMongolia.With the rapidly increasing number of vehicles used for livestockmanagement and tourists (figure 4),an unknown amount of ephemeral roads for vehicle access continues to be amajor landscape feature across the plateau, affecting thesociety and ecosystem functions directly and indirectly.

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income and better job opportunities in cities than inpastoral and agricultural sectors are driving massiverural-to-urbanmigrations, particularly of the youngergenerations (Chen et al 2015a). To avoid accelerateddegradation and support the community-based man-agement groups, MG should strengthen both formalcommunity-based and government institutions (i.e.policy implementation and enforcement) to coordi-nate pasture use and enforce seasonal migrations, pas-ture reserves, limit absentee-owned livestock, andimprove education and social support services toremote rural areas to incentivize herders to stay andnot migrate to cities. IM should encourage grasslandmarket mechanisms among the herders, enforce theregulation of livestock density, and evaluate the

effectiveness of intensive grazing management prac-tices for improving rangeland conditions.

3.Outlooks

Mounting empirical evidence from SES studies clearlyindicates that neither biophysical nor socioeconomicsystems operate independently; rather, they interactwith one another on a global scale, often in a nonlinearfashion, varying across spatial, temporal, and organi-zational scales and yielding emergent behaviors foreach SES (Agrawal and Lemos 2007, Turner et al2016). Here, we outline our perspectives for the fivemost critical issues facing the current and future SES

Figure 6. (a) Land cover in 2016 based onMODIS-derived IGBP classification (MOD12Q1) product and (b) land cover change (LCC)from2001 to 2016 on theMongolian Plateau. A red symbol indicates any change in land cover category between 2001 and 2016. LCCwasmostly located around the outer edges of the desert biome and in themountainous regions ofNortheastern IM andNorthernMG.

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on the Mongolian Plateau. It is important to empha-size that these challengesmay not apply to every SES atlocal levels or for different stakeholders on theMongolian Plateau (Allington et al 2018). For example,the traffic and air pollution concerns for Ulaanbaatarmay not apply to other cities in MG. Similarly, issueson large-scale afforestation and development ofmulti-urban centers are unique to IM.

A particular emphasis of this paperwas on the stateand divergence of herding practices in IM and MG.The future of nomadic herders in MG is less certainthan in IM,mostly because of its landlocked geophysi-cal locations between China and Russia. Popular dis-course in themedia foretells the end of nomadism, butoverlooks Mongolia’s long history of shifting liveli-hood strategies (Honeychurch 2010) and the persis-tence ofmobile pastoralism inmarginal environmentsaround the globe, defying predicted extinction (Reidet al 2014). In MG, a more vulnerable pastoral econ-omy and greater access to markets, quality educationand health care in the cities have triggered recentrural-to-urban migration (Neupert et al 2012, SaveThe Children 2013). Although few herders continue tomove as frequently or as far as they once did, thosewho maintain a mobile lifestyle increasingly use tech-nology such as cell phones, social media, satellitedishes, solar panels and motor vehicles to facilitate a21st century style of nomadism. Mongolian nomadicculture has long been adept at taking up and adaptinginnovationswhilemaintaining its identity.

SES divergence between IM and MG is apparentand will likely continue. However, lessons learned inIM in combating desertification are certainly applic-able in future ecological conservation efforts in MG.For example, water is the limiting environmental fac-tor for the SES on the Plateau. Large-scale afforesta-tion efforts must follow basic ecohydrologicalprinciples in terms of species selection and ecologicalrestoration design, and overall planning is needed tomaximize effectiveness. Since national land manage-ment policies and regulations have long-term effectson grassland ecosystems and regional sustainability,climate change adaptation policies and practices tunedto local conditions should be central to decision-mak-ing on natural resource management and socio-economic development pathways. Apart from thedivergences of SES between IM and MG, the lessonslearned from this synthesis have the potential for otherregional studies. It is well recognized within the scien-tific community that each SES has unique structureand function, as well as forcing mechanisms (seeTurner et al 2016). This suggests that: (1) some chal-lenges in the understanding and projecting of a SES areunique (e.g. afforestation of the Gobi Desert insection 2.3) and should not be over-extrapolated toother regions; (2) some challenges and changes of SES(e.g. urbanization, climatic change, land use change,and declining nomadism) appear as common themesamong drylands SES, suggesting possible direct

implications of our findings to other regions; andmore importantly, (3) future SES research mustinclude institutions—both formal and informal—inthe sustainability assessment andmodeling of SES.

Acknowledgments

This study was partially supported by the ‘Dynamics ofCoupledNatural andHumanSystems (CNH)’Programof the NSF (#1313761) and the LCLUC program ofNASA (NNX14AD85G). We thank the participants of aworkshop in Ulaanbaatar during 2–5 June 2017 for thefruitful discussions. P Groisman and G Henebry weresupported inpart byNASA grantNNX15AP81G.Grant14.B25.31.0026 of the Ministry of Education andScience of theRussian Federation provided support toPGroisman for his work conducted at the PP ShirshovInstitute of Oceanology. P Fan acknowledges thefinancial support by the LCLUC Program of NASA(NNX15AD51G). L Tian was funded by the NationalNatural Science Foundation of China (No. 41601100)and the National Key Research and DevelopmentProgramofChina (No. 2017YFB0503005).Weappreci-ate the two anonymous reviewers who provideddetailed suggestions for improving the clarity andquality of themanuscript.

ORCID iDs

JiquanChen https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0761-9458Peilei Fan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4448-4281GeoffreyMHenebry https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8999-2709Li Tian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0410-1146Pavel Groisman https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6255-324XGinger Allington https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0446-0576GangDong https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9515-6643Raffaele Lafortezza https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4642-8435JiaguoQi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8183-0297

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1. Social-ecological systems (SES) on the Mongolian plateau2. Five critical issues2.1. Divergent and uncertain social-ecological systems2.2. Decline in the prevalence of nomadism2.3. Unsustainability of large-scale afforestation in inner Mongolia2.4. Consequences of rapid urbanization in transitional economies2.5. Policy and globalization—the role of institutional changes

3. OutlooksAcknowledgmentsReferences