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For sustainable energy. Energy Council World Energy Challenges by 2050: double energy demand half the emissions (-80% in OECD) electricity access for 1.3 billion energy poor globally governed risks management Christoph Frei, PhD Secretary General World Energy Council

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W orld E nergy C hallenges. by 2050 : double energy demand half the emissions (-80% in OECD) electricity access for 1.3 billion energy poor globally governed risks management. Christoph Frei, PhD Secretary General World Energy Council. critical uncertainties. uncertainty. need for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

World Energy Challenges

by 2050:

•double energy demand•half the emissions (-80% in OECD)•electricity access for 1.3 billion energy poor•globally governed risks management

Christoph Frei, PhDSecretary GeneralWorld Energy Council

Page 2: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

need foraction

criticaluncertainties

impact

un

cert

ain

ty

weak signals

World Energy Council (WEC)Critical Energy Issues Monitor: Global, 2012

<< low - IMPACT - high >>2012Global-0, Mon Oct 01 15:02:27 2012

<<

low

-

U

NC

ER

TA

INT

Y

-

hig

h >

>

climate framework

large scale accidents

global recession

capital markets

commodity prices

energy prices

currency uncertainty

energy water nexus

talentenergy poverty

energy affordability

corruption

China India

BrazilRussia

EU Cohesion

Middle East dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade barriersregional interconnection

business cycle

innovative regulation energy subsidies

sustainable citiesenergy efficiency

ccs

renewable energiesbiofuels smart grids

electric vehicles

electric storage

nuclear

large scale hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen economy

trackedissues

macroeconomic

geopol. &regional

businessenvironment

vision &technology

maximum change

nuclear

unconventionalscurrency uncertainty

large scale hydro

ccs

minimum change

Brazilinnovative regulation

business cycleMiddle East dynamics

large scale accidents

issues tracking color:

Page 3: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

need foraction

criticaluncertainties

impact

un

cert

ain

ty

weak signals

World Energy Council (WEC)Critical Energy Issues Monitor: Global, 2012

(time tracking)

<< low - IMPACT - high >>2012Global-TT-1, Mon Oct 01 15:02:32 2012

<<

low

-

U

NC

ER

TA

INT

Y

-

hig

h >

>

climate framework

large scale accidents

global recession

capital markets

commodity prices

energy prices

currency uncertainty

energy water nexus

talentenergy poverty

energy affordability

corruption

China India

BrazilRussia

EU Cohesion

Middle East dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade barriersregional interconnection

business cycle

innovative regulation energy subsidies

sustainable citiesenergy efficiency

ccs

renewable energiesbiofuels smart grids

electric vehicles

electric storage

nuclear

large scale hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen economy

trackedissues

macroeconomic

geopol. &regional

businessenvironment

vision &technology

maximum change

nuclear

unconventionalscurrency uncertainty

large scale hydro

ccs

minimum change

Brazilinnovative regulation

business cycleMiddle East dynamics

large scale accidents

issues tracking color:

ccs

energy efficiency

nuclearrenewable energies

unconventionals

Page 4: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

need foraction

criticaluncertainties

impact

un

cert

ain

ty

weak signals

World Energy Council (WEC)Critical Energy Issues Monitor: Global, 2012

(geographical tracking)

<< low - IMPACT - high >>2012Global.GT-wat-clm, Tue Oct 02 02:17:29 2012

<<

low

-

U

NC

ER

TA

INT

Y

-

hig

h >

>

climate framework

large scale accidents

global recession

capital markets

commodity prices

energy prices

currency uncertainty

energy water nexus

talentenergy poverty

energy affordability

corruption

China India

BrazilRussia

EU Cohesion

Middle East dynamics

US policy

terrorism

trade barriersregional interconnection

business cycle

innovative regulation energy subsidies

sustainable citiesenergy efficiency

ccs

renewable energiesbiofuels smart grids

electric vehicles

electric storage

nuclear

large scale hydro

unconventionals

hydrogen economy

trackedissues

macroeconomic

geopol. &regional

businessenvironment

vision &technology

maximum change over 10 observations:

hydrogen economy

terrorism

unconventionalscorruption

ccs

minimum change over 10 observations:

large scale accidents

energy affordability

energy subsidiesMiddle East dynamics

currency uncertainty

issues tracking color:

Asia

Africa

Europe

LatAm

MENANAm

OECD

NonOECD

G20

climate framework

Asia

Africa

Europe

LatAm

MENA

NAm

OECD

NonOECDG20

energy water nexus

Page 5: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OECD FW Non-OECD FW OECD TW Non-OECD TW

Non-OECD countries demand for transport fuels is expected to exceed that of the OECD countries by

2025

Non-OECD

OECD

+82%+30%

increase in fuel demand for all transport

Freeway/Tollway fuel demand (EJ)Source: WEC Global Transport Scenarios 2050

Page 6: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

+36%- 46%

increase in CO2 emissions from cars

Non-OECD

OECD

+79%+16%

increase in CO2 emissions from all transports

Freeway/Tollway CO2 emissionsSource: WEC Global Transport Scenarios 2050

Page 7: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

… a balancing act

Overcoming the Energy Trilemma…Source: 2011 Assesment of country energy and climate policies

Page 8: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

Kazakhstan : 2012 Energy Sustainability IndexSource: 2012 Assessment of country energy and climate policies (forthcoming)

Page 9: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

Kazakhstan : 2012 Energy Sustainability IndexSource: 2012 Assessment of country energy and climate policies (forthcoming)

Page 10: W orld  E nergy  C hallenges

For sustainable energy.© World Energy Council

World Energy Council

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