wageningen ur - ccb climate change and biosphere research centre
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WAGENINGEN UR - CCB CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre. www.wau.wageningen-ur.nl/ccb/ from a misconception to a key thematic focus from the past to the future upcoming period of main opportunities for CCB Wag UR. Enhanced effects. Reduced/temporised effects (Adaptation ). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
WAGENINGEN UR - CCBCLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre
•www.wau.wageningen-ur.nl/ccb/•from a misconception to a key thematic focus•from the past to the future•upcoming period of main opportunities for CCB Wag UR
Conceptual Framework II
Effects
Effects
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Glo
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Hyd
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Clim
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Enhancedeffects
Enhancedeffects
Te
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Reduced/temporisedeffects (Adaptation)
Positive effects(Mitigation)
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CCB Research Themes
• Role of land cover in regional energy and water balance
• Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases
• Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants
• Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity
• Consequences for land use and water management
• Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis
• Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies
Biosphere Atmosphere Interactions and the Regional Climate System
Pavel KabatCCB - Wageningen UR
Acknowledgements:IGBP - BAHC Scientific Steering Committee
GEWEX - ISLSCP International. Science PanelR. Hutjes, H. Dolman, P. Spiertz, H. ter Maat
“In the context of regional weather and climate,
landscape biospheric processes are as much a part
of the climate system as atmospheric processes”
LE = 0.65 R nLE = 0.25 R n
H = 0.3 R n
H = 0.65 R n
BorealForest
TemperateForest
Coupling Principles - Energy Balance LinkR n = LE + H + S
0.10 R g
R n = 0.87 R g
0.10 R g
R n = 0.87 R g
S = 0.03 R n
S = 0.07 R n
25 m10 m
PBL1500 m
PBL3000 m
CAPE + cloud activity characteristics
….excellent opportunity to integrate the important processes - physical, chemical and physical, chemical and biologicalbiological - that transport and transform material and energy across the land-atmosphere interface….
Land - Atmosphere Project
• off-spring of BAHC, IGAC, GCTE, GAIM• full and pro-active partnership with WCRP, story of a truly
complementary approach• learning from the past, capitalizing on successes of this
collaboration (GEWEX-BAHC, LBA, ...)• stepping stone for future joint programmes (mainly with WCRP
GEWEX)
Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate
• Biosphere/climate feedback proposed in 1987, in which marine phytoplankton emits a volatile sulfur-containing substance (DMS)
• DMS oxidized to sulfate aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)
• Increased CCN ->more cloud droplets -> clouds brighter ->reduced amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth
• Earth cooling -> changing the living conditions for plankton, and thus their rate of DMS emissions
Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate
• feedback thought to be relevant mostly to the oceans, continental regions considered always to have high levels of CCN, so that clouds would never be “CCN-starved” and any additional CCN would have little effect
• recent work in the Amazon shows this assumption to be wrong: in the wet season with no detectable anthropogenic input, the balance of natural sources and sinks produces a CCN number concentration almost identical to marine values.
Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate
• By providing most of the CCN to the natural atmosphere, the biosphere has a strong influence on cloud radiative and microphysical properties, and thereby on both climate and the hydrological cycle.
• This natural regulation mechanism is now in the process of being overwhelmed by anthropogenic emissions
CCB Research Themes
• Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Forest and woody biomass (IPCC)
Land use change and forestry (IPCC)
Biomass (Inventory)
Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory)
Forest stand (Eddy flux)
Forest stand (Eddy flux)
Biomass+Soil (C pools)
Soil only (C pools)
Trees (Inventory)
Biomass (Inventory)
Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory)
Biomass (Inventory)
Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)
Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)
Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)
Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)
Carbon sink (Gt C a-1; positive sign: sink)
European Community
West and Central Europe
European Continent
(1)
(1)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(7)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(5)
(6)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(1) EEA/ETC Air Emissions 1999; (2) Kauppi and Tomppo 1993; (3) Martin 1998; (4) Martin et al. 1998; (5) Schulze et al. 2000; (6) Nabuurs et al. 1997; (7) Kauppi et al. 1992; (8) Bousquet et al. 1999; (9) Kaminski et al. 1999; (10) Rayner et al. 1997; (11) Ciais et al. 1995
Landuse classificationEmissions inventory
Attributes emissions:• industrial• urban• traffic• etc
Attributes agriculture:• area• volume• increment• carbon stock• carbon flux• etc...
Attributes forests:• area• volume• increment• carbon stock• carbon flux• etc...
Carbon flux map
Landuse inventory
GIS based methodology
CCB Research Themes
• Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants
Scenario Projection: 2000-2100
• When climate change is neglected (blue line) the coupled model produces a CO2 trajectory similar to the standard IS92a scenario as used in GCMs (black line).
• When climate-carbon cycle feedbacks are included (red line) we see much higher rates of CO2 increase and climate change.
• By 2100 the fully coupled model produces 970 ppmv and a global warming of 5.5K (c.f. 700 ppmv and 4K without climate-carbon cycle feedbacks).
CCB Research Themes
• Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity
Climate, Water Quality & Ecosystems
Turbid water A stability landscape of ecosystems (source Scheffer, 2001)
• Aquatic Ecosystems , sometimes are in a seemingly steady state despite human pressures (lack of early warning signals)
• Gradual decline in ecosystem resilience can result in a sudden shift caused by an (climatic) event like a flood or a drought
• Also climate change (T) reduces ecosystem resilience
Clear water
CCB Research Themes
• Consequences for land use and water management
Learning to better cope with climate variability and change
ACCEPTABLERISK hydrology
water resourcesvulnerability
‘RANDOM’INTERNAL / EXTERNAL
DISTURBANCES
Climate
Land-useInternal
dynamics
Animal plagues
Humanpopulation
pressure
General IWRM Issues:
CCB Research Themes
• Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis
• Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies
Central role of politics: (water)indicators: Water use in irrigation
Reflexive modernity
Water use in irrigation is a relevant indicator of the hydraulic mission's indicative trajectory
Political
5
Economic
4
Green
3
Industrial modernity
Hydraulic mission
2
Pre-modern
1
1st paradigm 2nd water management paradigm3rd
para.4th
para.5th
paradigm
Green movement in the North
1850 1900 1950 200019901980
Modernity inspired by the Enlightenment, science, capitalism and the belief that Nature could be controlled
The trajectory of industrial modernity
The South is still involved in its hydraulic mission
Trajectory of reflexive modernity in the North
Tony Allan,2000
Central role of politics: (climate)
Reflexive modernityPolitical
5
Economic
4
Green
3
Industrial modernity
Hydraulic mission
2
Pre-modern
11850 1900 1950 2000
19901980
PoliticalAwarenessClimate/
globalchange
&CO2
&T
Club Rome
IPCC I, IIRIO
IPCC III
RIO+10
Measures ?
CCB: challenges of integrated approach
• Multidisciplinarity and feedbacks as important as in-depth research
Increase radiation
Temperaturerise
Precipitation & Evaporation
SOIL PHYSICS
& RESOURCES
Land Cover Change
Change physico-chemical
water parameters
Water tablesOceans
WATERRESOURCES
AtmosphereCLIMATE PHYSICS
GREENHOUSE GASES
ECOSYSTEMFUNCTIONING
Groundwater&
River discharge
DEVELOPINGDEVELOPING COUNTRIES COUNTRIES
EUROPE, USAEUROPE, USA
• Floods/Droughts• Sea level rise
• Sea level rise
•Water Scarcity
• Water Quality
• Biodiversity• Health
CCB: challenges of integrated approach
•
• Synergy in socio-economic aspects and policy analysis, including environmental and climate policies
Current political barriers global change & climate issues:
• Spatial & Regional (sectoral) political power structures
• National power structures
• Barriers to sustainability ofcurrent practices in IRWM
How?
• International policy in relation to driversglobal change (emissions, land use, pop. Growth, etc), conventions,like CBD, UNFCCC, CCD, RAMSAR
•Actual measures at local level
CCB: a role to play….
• National: ICES KIS Klimaat
• National: a Netherlands Core Centre Global Change (ism VU-IvM, CKO, ICIS, e.a.
• National: VROM, LNV, EZ en V&W klimaatdimensie
• National: NWO
• Europees: EU 6de KP (CofE and IRPs)
• Mondiaal: IGBP, WCRP, IHDP maar ook NL-climate change assistance programmes, WB-programmes, IPCC, MA, ...