war gaming - american red · pdf file“war gaming” is the art of simulating moves...
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Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
“War Gaming” Identifying possible futures and how to deal with them
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
450 sheep leap to their deaths in Turkey
ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) — First one sheep jumped to its death. Then stunned Turkish shepherds, who had left the herd to graze while they had breakfast, watched as nearly 1,500 others followed, each leaping off the same cliff, Turkish media reported.
In the end, 450 dead animals lay on top of one another in a billowy white pile, the Aksam newspaper said. Those who jumped later were saved as the pile got higher and the fall more cushioned, Aksam reported.
"There's nothing we can do. They're all wasted," Nevzat Bayhan, a member of one of 26 families whose sheep were grazing together in the herd, was quoted as saying by Aksam.
The estimated loss to families in the town of Gevas, located in Van province in eastern Turkey, tops $100,000, a significant amount of money in a country where average GDP per head is around $2,700.
"Every family had an average of 20 sheep," Aksam quoted another villager, Abdullah Hazar as saying. "But now only a few families have sheep left. It's going to be hard for us." Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. Source: www.usatoday.com/news/offbeat/2005-07-08-sheep-suicide_x.htm
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
“War Gaming” – Defined
“War Gaming” is the art of simulating moves and counter moves in a variety of settings. “War Games” allow decision makers to consider proactively how different organizations may react to disruption/change and each other. “War Game” scenarios allow us to describe the forces that are operating and enable the use of judgment.
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
"War Gaming" differs from the typical emergency drill, in that it is not based on a "problem - solution" linear process; but rather on nonlinear response and shaping of potential future horizons.
"War Gaming" focuses on analyzing decision making, issues identification and how the future can be potentially shaped.
“War Gaming” – Defined
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We think we can manage by depicting extreme events.
We are convinced that our plans will work.
We don’t listen to advice about what we shouldn’t do.
We assume that performance can be measured.
We don’t appreciate that what’s artificial and arbitrary (demonstrated proficiency) isn’t reality.
We are taught linear thinking – problem to solution.
Six Mistakes We Make in Exercising Plans
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Typical Exercise “U” Shaped Curve Exercise Start Exercise Mid-Point Exercise End
Things are getting bad!
Things are getting worse!
Have we hit bottom yet?
Must have we are on the road to recovery!
Back to normal! We are so good!
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“War Gaming” – Typical Approach
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Governmental Plans and Actions
State Federal Local
New Agencies
New Regulations
Indirect Actions
Indirect Reactions
Direct Actions
Direct Reactions
Your Organization’s Plans and Execution
Things You Control – Things You Do Not Control
Your Plans
Their Plans Their Information Their Goals Their Reactions
Vision &
Grand Strategy Strategic Plans
Operational Projects and
Programs
Tactical Execution
Private Sector Plans and Actions
Business Unit Corporate Department
Private Sector
Govt. Sector
Your Information Your Goals Your Actions
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“War Gaming” – Scenario Development Process
Define: Focal Issue, Question or Decision & Relevant Timeframe.
Review Past Events & Alternative Interpretations; Project Future Forward (Plausible Scenarios).
Identify Driving Forces
Identify Critical Uncertainties
Develop Plausible Scenarios
Discuss Implications & Paths
?
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“War Gaming” Simulations
Scenario Development is a starting point
History and Current Events
Forward Inferences Opacity & Causality
Range of Plausible Futures
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
How might forces play out to get us from here to a range of futures?
Time
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Exercise # 1
What words describe your organization’s internal: Risks, threats, hazards, vulnerabilities? Strengths? Weaknesses? Opportunities?
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Exercise # 2
What words describe your organization’s external: Risks, threats, hazards, vulnerabilities? Strengths? Weaknesses? Opportunities? Exposures?
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What’s missing from simulations? Assumes that your current strategy will work
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
Shapeshifting: Nonlinear evolution of events in combination with reactions to events.
Nonlinearity: evolution creates change, collateral factors come into play, (uniqueness is created in the way that evolution occurs).
Reactivity: evolution is affected by reaction to change.
Consequences: long lasting effects; not readily apparent.
First Step – Assessment
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Exercise # 3
Who will America’s primary enemy be a decade from now?
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
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Exercise # 3
Who will be your primary competitor be a decade from now?
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
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Key focal point: What are the key factors in our external environment and how much can we control them?
Question # 1: Where are we?
Questions
Key focal point: Build a snapshot of how your organization’s activities (internal environment) are impacted at present.
Question # 2: Where are we?
Key focal point: List your key challenges and threats.
Question # 3: Where are we going?
Key focal point: What are our strengths and needs? How does this event impact our key activities?
Question # 4: Where can we go?
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
Exercise # 3
Who will America’s primary enemy be a decade from now?
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
Why should the country have an enemy?
Where’s the problem?
Will the U.S. stop its activist meddling?
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
Exercise # 3
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
Where will our competitors come from?
Where’s the problem?
Will the markets change our offerings?
Who will be your primary competitor be a decade from now?
Second Step – Managing Risk
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Exercise # 4
Where will terrorists strike next?
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
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Key focal point: Build assumptions, potentials, etc., assess what the future situation might look like.
Question # 5: Where might we go?
Questions
Key focal point: Create a pyramid of objectives; redefine your business; set functional objectives.
Question # 6: Where do we want to go?
Key focal point: What will be the effect of new external forces? What assumptions can we make about future changes?
Question # 7: What do we have to do?
Key focal point: Act to fill the gaps. Conduct an opportunity-problem feasibility analysis; risk analysis assessment; resource-requirements assessment. Build action program proposals.
Question # 8: What could we do?
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Exercise # 4
Where will terrorists strike next?
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
Will religious fundamentalism fragment the US?
What are the problem areas?
Will the U.S. be drawn into a middle east conflict?
Third Step – Effective Decision Making
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Exercise # 5
What happens if the world’s fiat monetary system collapses?
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
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Key focal point: Classify strategy and program objectives; make explicit commitments; adjust objectives.
Question # 9: What should we do?
Questions
Key focal point: Evaluate the impact of new programs.
Question # 10: How can we do it?
Key focal point: Monitor external environment. Analyze fiscal and physical variances. Conduct an overall assessment.
Question # 11: How are we doing?
Key focal point: Revise strategy and program objectives as needed; revise explicit commitments as needed; adjust objectives as needed.
Question # 12: What’s not working?
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
Exercise # 5
What happens if the world’s fiat monetary system collapses?
So, what would you do Contingency Planner?
Scenario # 1
Scenario # 2
Scenario # 3
Why should the monetary system collapse?
Where’s the problem?
Will there be inflation or deflation?
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing.
If you can fake that, you've got it made!“
Groucho Marx
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
Suggested Actions
Preemptive Proactive Reactive
Heightened Awareness or Reactive and Backward Looking
Anticipates Change
Recognizes complexity & interconnectivity
Research focuses on long term trends, drivers, issues
Expanded knowledge base
Not process dependent
Alignment – SP, BC, RM, CI
Recognizes Change
Causal focus overlooks opacity, complexity & interconnectivity
Research – tactical trends, drivers, issues
Knowledge: “Cylinders of Excellence”
Process focused
Alignment – “Cylinders of Excellence”
Process is means to an end “Mission Critical”
Fails to ask: “Is the process still relevant?”
Research – prescriptive, little creative problem solving
Knowledge: potentially inaccurate “False Positives”
Alignment – “Defined Boundaries”
Copyright 2013, Logical Management Systems, Corp., all rights reserved
Geary W. Sikich Principal Logical Management Systems, Corp.
www.logicalmanagement.com
+1 (219) 922-7718
Do not say anything, unless what you are going to say is more beautiful than silence (Arabic proverb)
Nothing is certain, but many things are reasonably probable