war origins and effects

8/9/2019 War Origins and Effects

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Figure 4. This figure is a schematic image of the singularity dynamic and accelerating log-periodicoscillations that shaped the dynamics and development of the International System. The International Systembegins the dynamic at the start of the Great Power System, in approximately 1495. Successive systemic wars(in red) and four quasi-stable cycles can be identified. The life spans of the first three systemic wars, and ofthe successive cycles, develop regularly. Through the first three systemic wars, organizational innovationswere introduced within the anarchistic setting of the International System. The fourth systemic war theSecond World War constitutes a critical transition (t(c) = 1939), resulting in a fundamental change in thestructure and dynamics of the European International System: the transformation from an anarchistic systemto a cooperative security community. At the time of the singularity, the connectivity of the InternationalSystem reached a critical threshold. In the preceding years during the life span of the fourth cycle the

International System was unable to (re)create a certain balance, which is, in retrospect, an indication of thesaturation level of the regulatory network. In 1939, the historian Carr published a study on internationalrelations with the striking title The Twenty Years Crisis, 1919-1939 (14). The Second World War alsomarked the actual globalization of the International System. The intense rivalry between East and West,the United States and the Soviet Union, froze the war dynamics temporarily in the system, providing time

for Europe to embed new structures and rules within its system. This study shows that connectivity growthdrives the war singularity dynamics of the International System.

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Serial 1: Lyapunov exponent ! 1,02

t 9 39 Abs |9-39| ! 0 0,057 0,024 0,033 NA1 0,043 0,127 -0,084 0,932 0,42 0,149 0,271 1,053 0,958 0,003 0,955 1,124 0,041 1,685 -1,644 0,98

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Serial 2: Lyapunov exponent ! 2,51

t 9 36 Abs |6-36| ! 0 0,057 0,049 0,008 NA1 0,043 0,195 -0,152 2,942 0,42 1,086 -0,666 2,213 0,958 0,024 0,934 2,38

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-0.20

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0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20

I n t e n s i

t y / 1 0 0 0 0

Size (fraction)

Development of the size (fraction) and intensity of wars belonging to theExceptional Period (1657 - 1763)

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

C h a n g e o f

f r a c t

i o n a n

d i n t e n s i

t y ( d i v i d e d

b y

1 0 0 0 )

Great Power wars

Change of the size (fraction) and intensity of consecutive wars (t-(t+1)), Period1672-1763 (Source: Levy, 62-77)


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French Rev. and Napoleonic Wars

1 s WW

2 nd WW

Exceptional period


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Nr Nr Levy Nr Orbit Direction Intensity Fraction Start End I d 10001 1 1 R 119 -0,60 1495 1497 0,1192 2 1 R 45 -0,20 1497 1498 0,0453 3 1 R 60 -0,20 1499 1503 0,064 4 1 R 29 -0,20 1499 1500 0,0295 5 1 R 269 -0,40 1501 1504 0,2696 6 1 R 145 -0,60 1508 1509 0,1457 7 2 L 261 0,80 1511 1514 0,2618 8 2 L 343 0,40 1512 1519 0,3439 9 2 L 57 0,20 1513 1515 0,057

10 10 2 L 43 0,60 1515 1515 0,04311 11 2 L 420 0,75 1521 1526 0,4212 12 3 L 958 0,50 1521 1531 0,95813 13 3 L 41 0,25 1522 1523 0,04114 14 3 L 249 0,75 1526 1529 0,24915 15 3 L 384 0,50 1532 1535 0,38416 16 4 L 55 0,25 1532 1534 0,05517 17 4 L 438 0,50 1536 1538 0,43818 18 4 L 1329 0,50 1537 1547 1,32919 19 4 L 176 0,25 1542 1550 0,17620 25 5 R 676 -0,40 1556 1562 0,67621 26 5 R 316 -0,60 1556 1559 0,31622 27 5 R 78 -0,40 1559 1560 0,07823 28 5 R 310 -0,40 1559 1564 0,3124 29 5 R 77 -0,40 1562 1564 0,07725 30 5 R 306 -0,40 1565 1568 0,30626 31 5 R 608 -0,40 1569 1580 0,60827 32 6 R 600 -0,40 1576 1583 0,628 33 6 R 50 -0,20 1579 1581 0,0529 34 6 R 210 -0,20 1583 1590 0,2130 35 6 R 588 -0,40 1585 1604 0,58831 36 7 L 49 0,20 1587 1588 0,04932 37 7 L 195 0,40 1589 1598 0,19533 38 7 L 1086 0,40 1593 1606 1,08634 39 7 L 24 0,20 1600 1601 0,02435 78 8 L 127 0,17 1768 1774 0,12736 79 8 L 149 0,17 1768 1772 0,14937 80 8 L 3 0,33 1778 1779 0,00338 82 8 L 1685 0,33 1787 1792 1,68539 83 8 L 26 0,17 1788 1790 0,02640 87 9 L 51 0,20 1808 1809 0,051

41 88 9 L 34 0,20 1812 1814 0,03442 89 9 L 17 0,20 1815 1815 0,01743 90 9 L 3 0,20 1823 1823 0,00344 91 9 L 2 0,60 1827 1827 0,00245 92 9 L 415 0,20 1828 1829 0,41546 93 9 L 45 0,20 1848 1849 0,04547 100 10 L 12 0,33 1864 1864 0,01248 101 10 L 270 0,50 1866 1866 0,2749 102 10 L 1415 0,33 1870 1871 1,41550 103 10 L 935 0,17 1877 1878 0,93551 106 10 L 45 0,13 1911 1912 0,045

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