Warming Racket and Climate Reality

And Why Rotarians Should not Believe the AGW Fiction

Bienvenido “Nonoy” Oplas, Jr.

Rotary Club of Taguig Fort Bonifacio, RI Dist 3830

July 25, 2011, Metro Club, Rockwell, Makati City

Outline

1. AGW Claims

2. AGW projections

3. Temperature Data: (a) air and troposphere, (b) land surface, (c) sea surface, (d) deep ocean

4. Sea ice data (Arctic and Antarctica)

5. Sea level height data

6. The Sun and GCRs

7. Ozone depletion, CO2 uses

8. Concluding Notes

Be scared, be worried 1: TIME style

Be scared, be worried2: Newsweek style

Be scared, be worried 3: US style

Be scared, be worried 4: German style

Be scared, be worried 5: UK style

Be scared, be worried 6: Graphics

Air/Tropospheric temperature, 1979-2011, satellite data.

Data from UAH, www.drroyspencer.com

Air/Tropospheric temperature, satellite data, average for RSS and UAH data, vs. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

Source: Friends of Science, http://friendsofscience.org/

CO2 level now

around 392

parts per million

(ppm).

Temp change

from Jan. 2002

to June 2011

showed decline

(cooling) of 0.02

C per decade.

Nino regions, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

As of July 17, 2011, data from BOM Australia,http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

Global average SST anomaly (Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic, etc.) from AMSR-E

on NASA’s Aqua satellite. See www.drroyspencer.com

Sea surface temp (SST), 1950-2011 (61 yrs of warming-cooling cycles), data from WUWT’s ENSO page

http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/

Current La Nina (started May 2010) will end when?

* Looks like

until late

2012

•See temp

range, up to

2.5 C diff.

among

dozens of

computer

models

• Projections

are messy

and

unreliable if

assumptions

are

unreliable

SST anomaly as of July 21, 2011, data from

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

anomnight.current.gif

Philippines’ surrounding seas

currently colder than average

temp in the past

Arctic Ice: lowest during late Sept, 4.2 M sq.kms. highest during late March, 14.5 M sq. kms. Compare w/ Phil. Land area, 0.3 M sq.kms.

2007 has the lowest sea ice level the past decade. 2011 level also lower than ave, but is it worse this year than the worst of 2007? Data from WUWT sea ice page,

http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

It’s now summer in

the Arctic and

Northern

Hemisphere.

September is fast

approaching where

Arctic ice will

achieve its lowest

sea ice level.

Are we nearing an

“ice free Arctic”?

Where are the

“icebergs breaking

into oblivion”?

Antarctica ice, peak in late September each year up to around 18 M sq. kms., lowest level in late Feb each year, about 2.5 M sq. kms.

Antarctica + rest of Southern Hemisphere, ice as of July 23, 2011

Are we nearing an “ice free Antarctica”?

Where are the “icebergs breaking into oblivion”?

Greenpeace, WWF, others love to show pics of drifting icebergs

Once more, with feelings: “ice-free” planet Earth?

Drifting camera in the North Pole (left) and South Pole (right) as of July 23, 2011

Global average sea level change, 1993-2011 (Univ. of Colorado). About 50 mm rise over 18 yrs = 2.8 mm per year (or 28 cms per century)

Source: http://climate4you.com/

Global Tropical Cyclone, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), 1970 TO present

Source: WUWT, http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/global-climatic-history/

Historical Data

• Unprecedented warming vs. warming-

cooling cycles

• Anthropogenic vs. natural (the Sun, GCRs) factors

• Projections in 1990 vs. data available

The famous “hockey stick” graph of unprecedented warming developed by

Dr. Michael Mann, Univ. of Pennsylvania. Used by IPCC AR3 (2001).

This graph was removed in the latest IPCC AR4 (2007)

There was no precedent, no period warmer than past century’s warming? Data from oxygen isotope analysis of ice cores in Greenland.

Vostoc Ice Cores, Antarctica, by JM Barnola et al., 1987.

IPCC AR4 (2007): net anthropogenic forcing 1.6 w/sq.m. vs. solar forcing of only 0.12 w/sq.m.

Source: Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Boston

Sun-GCRs-Climate theory, two illustrations

Inverse relationship between GCRs and Sunspot number (SSN) in

each solar cycle. Active Sun has more SSN, which reduces GCRs in

the Earth's atmosphere, with reduces the cloud cover.

for a 1,000 count incr. in GCR activity as measured at Moscow, there appears to be:

(1) an increase in reflected sunlight (SW) of 0.64 Watts per sq. meter, probably

mostly due to an increase in low cloud cover;

(2) virtually no change in emitted infrared (LW) of +0.02 Watts per sq. meter;

(3) a Net (reflected sunlight plus emitted infrared) effect of 0.55 Watts per sq. meter

loss in radiant energy by the global climate system. – Dr. Roy Spencer

Source: "Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes" by B.

A. Laken , D. R. Kniveton, and M. R. Frogley.

“…These results provide perhaps the

most compelling evidence presented

thus far of a GCR-climate

relationship. From this analysis we

conclude that a GCR-climate

relationship is governed by both

short-term GCR changes and

internal atmospheric precursor

conditions.”

IPCC AR1 (1990):

"...predicted rise from 1990 of 0.7-1.5°C with a best estimate of 1.1C (by 2030).“

Following a gradual rise of about 0.2 C from 1990 to 2000, global temps have

stopped increasing and have actually fallen slightly.,,, The “Best” IPCC

estimate and the higher 1.5 degree rise are ruled out by the data.

- Dr. Clive Best, http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=2208

Ozone hole – they appear, they disappear, every year

Correlation between Cosmic Rays and Ozone DepletionQ.-B. Lu

Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L

3G1, Canada1980–2007 covering two full 11-yr cosmic ray (CR) cycles, clearly showing the correlation between CRs and

ozone depletion, especially the polar ozone loss (hole) over Antarctica. The results provide strong evidence

of the physical mechanism that the CR driven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules plays the

dominant role in causing the ozone hole. Moreover, this mechanism predicts one of the severest ozone losses in 2008–2009 and probably another large hole around 2019–2020, according to the 11-yr CR cycle.

CO2 is a useful gas. It’s plant food, plant fertilizer. More CO2, more plant

growth. It is also a gas that we humans and our animals exhale.

Money, money, money, always sunny (in the AGW racket)

Environmental NGOs want to handle multi-billion $ climate fund

Concluding Notes

• AGW is a lie, it is not the truth. It violates Rotary’s 1st test, “Is it the truth?”

• The goal of AGW is global ecological central planning, or simply global environmental socialism.

• The central planners are the UN (FCCC, UNEP, WMO, etc) + governments + big environmental NGOs (WWF, Greenpeace, Oxfam, etc.)