warn-on-forecast parting shots
DESCRIPTION
Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots. David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory. SWOT Analysis. Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Just my perspective Biased, imperfect. Strengths. Strengths. Good results!. Strengths. Good results!. Largely independent of DA used, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Warn-on-ForecastParting Shots
David J. StensrudNOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
![Page 2: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
SWOT Analysis
• Strengths• Weaknesses• Opportunities• Threats
• Just my perspective – Biased, imperfect
![Page 4: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Strengths
![Page 5: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Strengths
• Good results!
![Page 6: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Strengths
• Good results!Largely independent of DA used,as long as it is designed for convective scale flow!
![Page 7: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff
![Page 8: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships
cimms
![Page 9: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships
cimms
![Page 10: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships
cimms
![Page 11: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships• Engaged with social sciences from outset
![Page 12: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Weaknesses
![Page 13: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0.00
$500,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$1,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
Warn-on-Forecast Funding
![Page 14: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources
![Page 15: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management
![Page 16: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research
![Page 17: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O
![Page 18: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging
![Page 19: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging• Developing people as well as technology
![Page 20: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships
![Page 21: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells
![Page 22: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells• Social science connection
![Page 23: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Opportunities
![Page 24: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Opportunities
• Additional funding
![Page 25: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Opportunities
• Additional funding• Seek our own funding• GOES-R support via SPC/NSSL
![Page 26: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Opportunities
• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Radar Vision• NWS Roadmap• Radar Functional Requirements for 2030
![Page 27: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Opportunities
• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Expanded partnerships• NCEP/EMC, WPC, AWC• SSD Chiefs• ROC, WDTB, JCSDA• Within NSSL and other partner groups
cimms
![Page 28: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Threats
![Page 29: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy
![Page 30: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest
![Page 31: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves
![Page 32: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves
![Page 33: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Parting Shots
![Page 34: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well
![Page 35: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
![Page 36: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact
![Page 37: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.
![Page 38: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!
![Page 39: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!
• New funding possible if we work together
![Page 40: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!
• New funding possible if we work together• Biggest threat is ourselves
![Page 41: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062817/56816920550346895de04d66/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
The hardest challenge in creating new technology is not eliminating uncertainty in advance but adapting to it as the work uncovers it.
Clay Shirky, Professor of New MediaNew York UniversityIn “The key to successful tech management”